{"status":true,"post":{"id":45381,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-11-13 08:41:00","created_at":"2023-11-13T05:41:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-11-13T05:41:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":45381,"is_featured":0,"title":"Yurt i\u00e7i fiyat endeksinin verdi\u011fi sinyaller","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan yurt i\u00e7i fiyat endeksi b\u00fcltenine g\u00f6re; Y\u0130-\u00dcFE (2003=100) 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 ekim ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 1.94, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n aral\u0131k ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 38.70, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 39.39 ve\u00a0<\/span>12 ayl\u0131k ortalamalara g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 58.46 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 2\u2019nin alt\u0131na inilmi\u015f durumda. Ayn\u0131 h\u0131zla gidilirse y\u0131ll\u0131k 23 civar\u0131 yurt i\u00e7i \u00dcFE rakam\u0131na inilecek demektir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

PEK\u0130, YURT \u0130\u00c7\u0130 \u00dcFE NEDEN D\u00dc\u015eT\u00dc?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda elektrik, gaz, buhar gruplar\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k Y\u0130-\u00dcFE de\u011fi\u015fiminin y\u00fczde -40.19, enerjinin y\u00fczde -12.91 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu iki veri, Y\u0130-\u00dcFE rakam\u0131n\u0131n da daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na neden oluyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Hafize Gaye Erkan\u2019\u0131n kas\u0131m ay\u0131 enflasyonunun yukar\u0131 gidebilece\u011fine dair a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kayg\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131nda da bu fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimi yat\u0131yor. Bedava sa\u011flanan do\u011falgaz havalar so\u011fuduktan sonra yetmeyece\u011fi i\u00e7in bir anda ciddi bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n fiyatlamalara dahil oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Bu durumda da enflasyon yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmelenebilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Y\u0130-\u00dcFE YILLIK Y\u00dcZDE 60<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Di\u011fer detaylara bakarsak; Y\u0130-\u00dcFE detaylar\u0131nda en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck di\u011fer grubun y\u00fczde 45.58 ile ara mal\u0131 grubunun oldu\u011funu, en y\u00fcksek ise y\u00fczde 72.72 ile su temininin geldi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 y\u00fczde 61.37 ve dayan\u0131ks\u0131z t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 y\u00fczde 67.47 y\u0131ll\u0131k Y\u0130-\u00dcFE verileriyle ger\u00e7ek durumu yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Buradan \u015fu noktaya gelebiliriz. Enerji konusundaki fiyatlamalar\u0131 devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131rsak Y\u0130-\u00dcFE rakam\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 60\u2019lar civar\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu durumda enflasyonun yak\u0131n gelecekte d\u00fc\u015femeyece\u011fini, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc girdilerde fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6zlemliyoruz.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

AYLIK BAZLI D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015eLER<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ayl\u0131k bazl\u0131 geli\u015fmeler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f konusunda daha iyimser tahmin veriyor mu?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ekim ay\u0131nda, ayl\u0131k bazda verilere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda elektrik, gaz, buhar sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 4.38 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu\u011funu, bu nedenle de enerjide y\u00fczde 2.86 oran\u0131nda bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. Oysa dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 ayl\u0131k verisi y\u00fczde 1.93 art\u0131\u015f olmakla beraber t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 grubunda ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 3.99 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yani g\u0131dada kat\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve h\u00e2l\u00e2 h\u0131zla artan bir enflasyon var. Bunun ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 5.46 artan su teminiyle ili\u015fkisi de incelenmeli.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00dcRET\u0130C\u0130 F\u0130YATLARI D\u00dc\u015eMEZSE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Daha da detaya inersek neden bizlerin enflasyonu daha y\u00fcksek hissetti\u011fimiz ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r; y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda Y\u0130-\u00dcFE verileri temel eczac\u0131l\u0131k \u00fcr\u00fcnleri y\u00fczde 94.85, i\u00e7ecekler y\u00fczde 74.80, motorlu kara ta\u015f\u0131tlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 73.66, su y\u00fczde 72.72, g\u0131da y\u00fczde 64.72.<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Bu oranlar sadece enerji k\u00f6kenli bir enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. K\u0131\u015fa girerken tablonun h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015ferek belirtti\u011fimiz di\u011fer oranlara yakla\u015fabilece\u011fi unutulmamal\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdilik \u00f6nemli bir\u00e7ok kalemde enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek seyretmeye devam etti\u011fini, \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler sa\u011flamadan T\u00dcFE verisinde sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklenmemesi gerekti\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmekle yetinelim.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"yurt-ici-fiyat-endeksinin-verdigi-sinyaller","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1699822800hjgSCRG2nQn9f2l.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1541,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":45507,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":45381,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Yurt i\u00e7i fiyat endeksinin verdi\u011fi sinyaller","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan yurt i\u00e7i fiyat endeksi b\u00fcltenine g\u00f6re; Y\u0130-\u00dcFE (2003=100) 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 ekim ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 1.94, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n aral\u0131k ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 38.70, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 39.39 ve\u00a0<\/span>12 ayl\u0131k ortalamalara g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 58.46 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 2\u2019nin alt\u0131na inilmi\u015f durumda. Ayn\u0131 h\u0131zla gidilirse y\u0131ll\u0131k 23 civar\u0131 yurt i\u00e7i \u00dcFE rakam\u0131na inilecek demektir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

PEK\u0130, YURT \u0130\u00c7\u0130 \u00dcFE NEDEN D\u00dc\u015eT\u00dc?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda elektrik, gaz, buhar gruplar\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k Y\u0130-\u00dcFE de\u011fi\u015fiminin y\u00fczde -40.19, enerjinin y\u00fczde -12.91 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu iki veri, Y\u0130-\u00dcFE rakam\u0131n\u0131n da daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na neden oluyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Hafize Gaye Erkan\u2019\u0131n kas\u0131m ay\u0131 enflasyonunun yukar\u0131 gidebilece\u011fine dair a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kayg\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131nda da bu fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimi yat\u0131yor. Bedava sa\u011flanan do\u011falgaz havalar so\u011fuduktan sonra yetmeyece\u011fi i\u00e7in bir anda ciddi bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n fiyatlamalara dahil oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Bu durumda da enflasyon yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmelenebilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Y\u0130-\u00dcFE YILLIK Y\u00dcZDE 60<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Di\u011fer detaylara bakarsak; Y\u0130-\u00dcFE detaylar\u0131nda en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck di\u011fer grubun y\u00fczde 45.58 ile ara mal\u0131 grubunun oldu\u011funu, en y\u00fcksek ise y\u00fczde 72.72 ile su temininin geldi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 y\u00fczde 61.37 ve dayan\u0131ks\u0131z t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 y\u00fczde 67.47 y\u0131ll\u0131k Y\u0130-\u00dcFE verileriyle ger\u00e7ek durumu yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Buradan \u015fu noktaya gelebiliriz. Enerji konusundaki fiyatlamalar\u0131 devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rak\u0131rsak Y\u0130-\u00dcFE rakam\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 60\u2019lar civar\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu durumda enflasyonun yak\u0131n gelecekte d\u00fc\u015femeyece\u011fini, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc girdilerde fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6zlemliyoruz.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

AYLIK BAZLI D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015eLER<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ayl\u0131k bazl\u0131 geli\u015fmeler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f konusunda daha iyimser tahmin veriyor mu?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ekim ay\u0131nda, ayl\u0131k bazda verilere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda elektrik, gaz, buhar sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 4.38 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu\u011funu, bu nedenle de enerjide y\u00fczde 2.86 oran\u0131nda bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. Oysa dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 ayl\u0131k verisi y\u00fczde 1.93 art\u0131\u015f olmakla beraber t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 grubunda ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 3.99 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yani g\u0131dada kat\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve h\u00e2l\u00e2 h\u0131zla artan bir enflasyon var. Bunun ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 5.46 artan su teminiyle ili\u015fkisi de incelenmeli.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00dcRET\u0130C\u0130 F\u0130YATLARI D\u00dc\u015eMEZSE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Daha da detaya inersek neden bizlerin enflasyonu daha y\u00fcksek hissetti\u011fimiz ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r; y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda Y\u0130-\u00dcFE verileri temel eczac\u0131l\u0131k \u00fcr\u00fcnleri y\u00fczde 94.85, i\u00e7ecekler y\u00fczde 74.80, motorlu kara ta\u015f\u0131tlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 73.66, su y\u00fczde 72.72, g\u0131da y\u00fczde 64.72.<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Bu oranlar sadece enerji k\u00f6kenli bir enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. K\u0131\u015fa girerken tablonun h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015ferek belirtti\u011fimiz di\u011fer oranlara yakla\u015fabilece\u011fi unutulmamal\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdilik \u00f6nemli bir\u00e7ok kalemde enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek seyretmeye devam etti\u011fini, \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler sa\u011flamadan T\u00dcFE verisinde sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklenmemesi gerekti\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmekle yetinelim.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"yurt-ici-fiyat-endeksinin-verdigi-sinyaller","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1699822800hjgSCRG2nQn9f2l.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1699822800hjgSCRG2nQn9f2l.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1541,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}