{"status":true,"post":{"id":34133,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 21:32:29","created_at":"2022-07-28T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T18:32:29.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":34133,"is_featured":0,"title":"Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda beklentiler","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
2022 y\u0131l\u0131na iyimser ba\u015flayan d\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u015foku ve ard\u0131ndan gelen y\u00fcksek enflasyon resesyon endi\u015feleri ile ilk yar\u0131y\u0131 kapatt\u0131. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin olarak da \u00f6nemli beklentiler ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentileri de\u011ferlendirelim.<\/span>
<\/span>
1. D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130NDE YAVA\u015eLAMA YA\u015eANACAK <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde d\u00fcnya ekonomisi y\u00fczde 5.0 gibi y\u00fcksek bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Ancak ikinci \u00e7eyrekte bir yandan Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n etkisi, di\u011fer yandan \u00c7in\u2019deki salg\u0131n nedenli kapatmalar ile k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00c7in ekonomisi ikinci \u00e7eyrekte sadece y\u00fczde 0.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fen di\u011fer \u00fclkelerde de b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015fl\u0131yor. 2022\u2019nin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ise s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n da etkisi ile k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 1-2 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na inmesi bekleniyor. Baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler ve \u00fclkelerde y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeler de ya\u015fanabilecek. <\/span>
<\/span>
2. Y\u00dcKSEK K\u00dcRESEL ENFLASYON S\u00dcRECEK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda k\u00fcresel ekonomide g\u00f6r\u00fclen en \u00f6nemli sorun, genel yava\u015flaman\u0131n da \u00f6tesinde y\u00fckselen enflasyondur. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde, 1973 petrol krizi ile ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan enflasyona yak\u0131n enflasyon oranlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Haziran ay\u0131 enflasyon verileri hen\u00fcz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n devam etmekte oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. 2022\u2019nin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda k\u00fcresel ekonomide ilk \u00f6ncelik enflasyonla m\u00fccadele olacak. Bu ama\u00e7la s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131 uygulanacak. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda enerji ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda dura\u011fanla\u015fma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu d\u00f6nemde enflasyon beklentileri de k\u0131r\u0131labilirse y\u0131lsonunda enflasyon zirveyi g\u00f6rerek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine girmeye ba\u015flayabilecek. <\/span>
<\/span>
3. SIKI PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI \u0130LE DAHA Y\u00dcKSEK FA\u0130ZLER G\u00d6R\u00dcLECEK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda merkez bankalar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131 uygulayacak. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizlerinde y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015flar olacak. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 2022\u2019nin sonuna do\u011fru belki de son 20 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131 olu\u015facak. Y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131 ile ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Y\u00fcksek faizler ile varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131nda da d\u00fczeltmeler devam edecek.<\/span>
<\/span>
4. T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019DE \u0130\u00c7 TALEP \u00dc\u00c7\u00dcNC\u00dc \u00c7EYREKTE CANLI OLACAK, D\u00d6RD\u00dcNC\u00dc \u00c7EYREKTE ZAYIFLAYACAK <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6ncelikle ihracat ve ilk \u00e7eyrekte de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u00e7 talebin etkisi ile y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u0130\u00e7 talebin 2022\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde de kuvvetli olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ile sat\u0131n alma g\u00fc\u00e7lerinde ya\u015fanacak iyile\u015fmeler i\u00e7 talebi art\u0131racak. Yaz aylar\u0131 ile hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de hareketlilik ya\u015fanacak. Bu geli\u015fmeler ile \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte kuvvetli i\u00e7 talep olacak. Ancak y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fcksek enflasyon ile \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n talep etkisi azalacak ve i\u00e7 talep zay\u0131flayacak. <\/span>
<\/span>
5. DI\u015e TALEP VE \u0130HRACAT SON \u00c7EYREKTE YAVA\u015eLAYACAK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde de s\u00fcrecek. Ancak ihracat pazarlar\u0131m\u0131zda y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda beklenen yava\u015flama son \u00e7eyrekte T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat\u0131nda da yava\u015flamaya yol a\u00e7acak. Y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde ihracat muhtemelen ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011fi seviyesinde olacak. Euro-dolar paritesindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerilemeler de ihracat b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerini bu kez s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak. \u0130hracattaki gerileme ithalatta da yava\u015flamaya yol a\u00e7acak. Ancak y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda da cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme devam edecek.<\/span>
<\/span>
6. Y\u00dcKSEK ENFLASYON DEVAM EDECEK, TL\u2019DE DE\u011eER KAYBI BASKISI ARTACAK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Canl\u0131 i\u00e7 talep ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yarataca\u011f\u0131 talep ve maliyet kaynakl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar sonucu T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u00fcretici ve t\u00fcketici enflasyonu art\u0131\u015fa devam ederek eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 sonunda zirveye ula\u015facak. Son \u00e7eyrekte baz etkisi ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir gerileme beklenmekle beraber enflasyon y\u0131lsonunu 2021\u2019in olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde kapatacak. K\u00fcresel ekonomik ko\u015fullardaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma, cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki y\u00fckselme ve y\u00fcksek enflasyon, T\u00fcrk liras\u0131nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 yaratmaya devam edecek. T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybedecek.<\/span>
<\/span>
SON S\u00d6Z <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 ilk yar\u0131dan sarkan sorunlar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem olacak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"yilin-ikinci-yarisinda-beklentiler","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda beklentiler","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1108,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":34232,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":34133,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda beklentiler","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
2022 y\u0131l\u0131na iyimser ba\u015flayan d\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u015foku ve ard\u0131ndan gelen y\u00fcksek enflasyon resesyon endi\u015feleri ile ilk yar\u0131y\u0131 kapatt\u0131. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin olarak da \u00f6nemli beklentiler ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentileri de\u011ferlendirelim.<\/span>
<\/span>
1. D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130NDE YAVA\u015eLAMA YA\u015eANACAK <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde d\u00fcnya ekonomisi y\u00fczde 5.0 gibi y\u00fcksek bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Ancak ikinci \u00e7eyrekte bir yandan Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n etkisi, di\u011fer yandan \u00c7in\u2019deki salg\u0131n nedenli kapatmalar ile k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00c7in ekonomisi ikinci \u00e7eyrekte sadece y\u00fczde 0.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fen di\u011fer \u00fclkelerde de b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015fl\u0131yor. 2022\u2019nin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ise s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n da etkisi ile k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 1-2 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na inmesi bekleniyor. Baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler ve \u00fclkelerde y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeler de ya\u015fanabilecek. <\/span>
<\/span>
2. Y\u00dcKSEK K\u00dcRESEL ENFLASYON S\u00dcRECEK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda k\u00fcresel ekonomide g\u00f6r\u00fclen en \u00f6nemli sorun, genel yava\u015flaman\u0131n da \u00f6tesinde y\u00fckselen enflasyondur. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde, 1973 petrol krizi ile ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan enflasyona yak\u0131n enflasyon oranlar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Haziran ay\u0131 enflasyon verileri hen\u00fcz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n devam etmekte oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. 2022\u2019nin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda k\u00fcresel ekonomide ilk \u00f6ncelik enflasyonla m\u00fccadele olacak. Bu ama\u00e7la s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131 uygulanacak. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda enerji ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda dura\u011fanla\u015fma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu d\u00f6nemde enflasyon beklentileri de k\u0131r\u0131labilirse y\u0131lsonunda enflasyon zirveyi g\u00f6rerek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine girmeye ba\u015flayabilecek. <\/span>
<\/span>
3. SIKI PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI \u0130LE DAHA Y\u00dcKSEK FA\u0130ZLER G\u00d6R\u00dcLECEK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda merkez bankalar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131 uygulayacak. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizlerinde y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015flar olacak. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 2022\u2019nin sonuna do\u011fru belki de son 20 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131 olu\u015facak. Y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131 ile ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Y\u00fcksek faizler ile varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131nda da d\u00fczeltmeler devam edecek.<\/span>
<\/span>
4. T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019DE \u0130\u00c7 TALEP \u00dc\u00c7\u00dcNC\u00dc \u00c7EYREKTE CANLI OLACAK, D\u00d6RD\u00dcNC\u00dc \u00c7EYREKTE ZAYIFLAYACAK <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6ncelikle ihracat ve ilk \u00e7eyrekte de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u00e7 talebin etkisi ile y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u0130\u00e7 talebin 2022\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde de kuvvetli olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ile sat\u0131n alma g\u00fc\u00e7lerinde ya\u015fanacak iyile\u015fmeler i\u00e7 talebi art\u0131racak. Yaz aylar\u0131 ile hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de hareketlilik ya\u015fanacak. Bu geli\u015fmeler ile \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte kuvvetli i\u00e7 talep olacak. Ancak y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fcksek enflasyon ile \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n talep etkisi azalacak ve i\u00e7 talep zay\u0131flayacak. <\/span>
<\/span>
5. DI\u015e TALEP VE \u0130HRACAT SON \u00c7EYREKTE YAVA\u015eLAYACAK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde de s\u00fcrecek. Ancak ihracat pazarlar\u0131m\u0131zda y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda beklenen yava\u015flama son \u00e7eyrekte T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat\u0131nda da yava\u015flamaya yol a\u00e7acak. Y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde ihracat muhtemelen ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011fi seviyesinde olacak. Euro-dolar paritesindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerilemeler de ihracat b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerini bu kez s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak. \u0130hracattaki gerileme ithalatta da yava\u015flamaya yol a\u00e7acak. Ancak y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda da cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme devam edecek.<\/span>
<\/span>
6. Y\u00dcKSEK ENFLASYON DEVAM EDECEK, TL\u2019DE DE\u011eER KAYBI BASKISI ARTACAK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Canl\u0131 i\u00e7 talep ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yarataca\u011f\u0131 talep ve maliyet kaynakl\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar sonucu T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u00fcretici ve t\u00fcketici enflasyonu art\u0131\u015fa devam ederek eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 sonunda zirveye ula\u015facak. Son \u00e7eyrekte baz etkisi ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir gerileme beklenmekle beraber enflasyon y\u0131lsonunu 2021\u2019in olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde kapatacak. K\u00fcresel ekonomik ko\u015fullardaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma, cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki y\u00fckselme ve y\u00fcksek enflasyon, T\u00fcrk liras\u0131nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 yaratmaya devam edecek. T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybedecek.<\/span>
<\/span>
SON S\u00d6Z <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 ilk yar\u0131dan sarkan sorunlar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem olacak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"yilin-ikinci-yarisinda-beklentiler","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda beklentiler","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1108,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}