{"status":true,"post":{"id":41662,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-07-17 07:53:00","created_at":"2023-07-17T04:53:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-07-17T04:53:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":41662,"is_featured":0,"title":"Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na girerken ekonomiler","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"


<\/p>

gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k ve ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na girdik. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in beklentilerimizi payla\u015fal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

1. D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130 YAVA\u015eLAMAYA DEVAM ED\u0130YOR\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomi yava\u015fl\u0131yor. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fcksek enflasyon ile m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek faizler, ekonomiler \u00fczerindeki yava\u015flat\u0131c\u0131 etkisini 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde daha belirgin olarak g\u00f6sterdi.<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda genel beklenti, yava\u015flaman\u0131n birinci ve ikinci \u00e7eyrekte olmas\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ise toparlanman\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 \u015feklindeydi. Ancak ilk yar\u0131daki faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ra\u011fmen enflasyonu dizginleyecek kadar ekonomiler so\u011fumad\u0131. Bu nedenle faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda da devam edecek ve k\u00fcresel ekonomide yava\u015flama da s\u00fcrecek. \u00d6zellikle s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 uygulayan ABD, Euro b\u00f6lgesi ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019de yava\u015flamalar daha hissedilir olacak. \u00c7in, ekonomide istedi\u011fi ivmeyi yakalayamad\u0131. Bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fen \u00fclke ise y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda beklentilerin \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2. ENFLASYON GER\u0130L\u0130YOR AMA YETERL\u0130 DE\u011e\u0130L\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u00fcksek enflasyon ile m\u00fccadelede s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131 mesafe ald\u0131 ve enflasyonda gerilemeler ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6zellikle emtia, sanayi girdileri ve sanayi \u00fcr\u00fcnleri fiyatlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Enflasyonu tetikleyen enerji ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 da b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde normalle\u015fti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00dcretici fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131 azald\u0131. Ancak hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc enflasyonlar\u0131 bu alandaki canl\u0131 talep nedeniyle halen y\u00fcksek ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. Bu nedenle merkez bankalar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131n\u0131 koruyor ve hizmet enflasyonlar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir iyile\u015fme sa\u011flanana kadar da s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclecek. \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

3. SIKI PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI VE FA\u0130Z ARTI\u015eLARI S\u00dcRECEK\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

B\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n para politikalar\u0131 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi \u015fekillendirmeye devam ediyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda merkez bankalar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131na ve faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na devam etti. B\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda da faiz art\u0131rmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131lsonuna kadar faizi y\u00fczde 5.50-5.75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na kadar y\u00fckseltmesi bekleniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz oranlar\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u0131lsonu beklentisi y\u00fczde 5.0-5.25\u2019tir. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 da benzer \u015fekilde y\u0131lsonuna kadar faizleri y\u00fczde 6.0\u2019ya kadar y\u00fckseltebilecek. \u0130lk faiz indirimleri ise 2025 y\u0131l\u0131na do\u011fru kay\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

4. G\u00dc\u00c7L\u00dc DOLAR, ZAYIF EMT\u0130A F\u0130YATLARI\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 yaz aylar\u0131nda da faiz art\u0131rmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede yeterli faiz seviyeleri yeni art\u0131\u015flar ile sa\u011flanabilecek. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha bekleniyor. Faiz oranlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 5.75\u2019e kadar ula\u015fabilecek. Faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 sonucu dolar di\u011fer para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fcksek de\u011ferini koruyacak. Emtia fiyatlar\u0131 ise y\u00fckselen faizler, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, yava\u015flayan ekonomiler ve zay\u0131flayan talep nedeniyle yaz aylar\u0131 boyunca dura\u011fan kalacak. Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 da jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler g\u00f6lgesinde dura\u011fan kalacak. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

5. T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019DE EKONOM\u0130DE RASYONEL ZEM\u0130NE D\u00d6N\u00dc\u015e KADEMEL\u0130 OLACAK\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ekonomide rasyonel politikalara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcrecinde T.C. Merkez Bankas\u0131 ilk a\u015famada faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 15\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Banka faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclerde art\u0131rarak y\u0131lsonunda y\u00fczde 20\u2019ye kadar y\u00fckseltecek. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yava\u015f ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 normalle\u015fmesi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin risk priminin 500 puan\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyecek. Geleneksel finansman kaynaklar\u0131na eri\u015fim s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

6. TL\u2019DE DE\u011eER KAYBI S\u00dcREB\u0130L\u0130R\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ekonomide rasyonel zemine geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcrecinde T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131lar b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kalkt\u0131 ve TL se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 35 de\u011fer kaybederek dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 26 TL seviyesine kadar geldi. T.C. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yetersiz faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile rasyonel zemine geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn kuvvetli olmayaca\u011f\u0131 da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in TL h\u0131zla de\u011fer kaybetti. Yine TCMB, TL\u2019nin de\u011ferini korumak i\u00e7in rezervlerden d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. TL\u2019de d\u00fczeltme hen\u00fcz tam olarak tamamlanmad\u0131. Rasyonel zemine geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yetersiz olmas\u0131 nedeniyle TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131 s\u00fcrecek. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

SON S\u00d6Z\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na k\u00fcresel yava\u015flama ve rasyonel zemine geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f damgas\u0131n\u0131 vuracak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"yilin-ikinci-yarisina-girerken-ekonomiler-","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/168954120040a3Efo3aMaYPKu.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1352,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":41788,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":41662,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na girerken ekonomiler","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"


<\/p>

gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k ve ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na girdik. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in beklentilerimizi payla\u015fal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

1. D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130 YAVA\u015eLAMAYA DEVAM ED\u0130YOR\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomi yava\u015fl\u0131yor. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fcksek enflasyon ile m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek faizler, ekonomiler \u00fczerindeki yava\u015flat\u0131c\u0131 etkisini 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde daha belirgin olarak g\u00f6sterdi.<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda genel beklenti, yava\u015flaman\u0131n birinci ve ikinci \u00e7eyrekte olmas\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ise toparlanman\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 \u015feklindeydi. Ancak ilk yar\u0131daki faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ra\u011fmen enflasyonu dizginleyecek kadar ekonomiler so\u011fumad\u0131. Bu nedenle faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda da devam edecek ve k\u00fcresel ekonomide yava\u015flama da s\u00fcrecek. \u00d6zellikle s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 uygulayan ABD, Euro b\u00f6lgesi ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019de yava\u015flamalar daha hissedilir olacak. \u00c7in, ekonomide istedi\u011fi ivmeyi yakalayamad\u0131. Bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fen \u00fclke ise y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda beklentilerin \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2. ENFLASYON GER\u0130L\u0130YOR AMA YETERL\u0130 DE\u011e\u0130L\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u00fcksek enflasyon ile m\u00fccadelede s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131 mesafe ald\u0131 ve enflasyonda gerilemeler ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6zellikle emtia, sanayi girdileri ve sanayi \u00fcr\u00fcnleri fiyatlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Enflasyonu tetikleyen enerji ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 da b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde normalle\u015fti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00dcretici fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131 azald\u0131. Ancak hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc enflasyonlar\u0131 bu alandaki canl\u0131 talep nedeniyle halen y\u00fcksek ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. Bu nedenle merkez bankalar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131n\u0131 koruyor ve hizmet enflasyonlar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir iyile\u015fme sa\u011flanana kadar da s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclecek. \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

3. SIKI PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI VE FA\u0130Z ARTI\u015eLARI S\u00dcRECEK\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

B\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n para politikalar\u0131 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi \u015fekillendirmeye devam ediyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda merkez bankalar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131na ve faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na devam etti. B\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda da faiz art\u0131rmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131lsonuna kadar faizi y\u00fczde 5.50-5.75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na kadar y\u00fckseltmesi bekleniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz oranlar\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u0131lsonu beklentisi y\u00fczde 5.0-5.25\u2019tir. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 da benzer \u015fekilde y\u0131lsonuna kadar faizleri y\u00fczde 6.0\u2019ya kadar y\u00fckseltebilecek. \u0130lk faiz indirimleri ise 2025 y\u0131l\u0131na do\u011fru kay\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

4. G\u00dc\u00c7L\u00dc DOLAR, ZAYIF EMT\u0130A F\u0130YATLARI\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 yaz aylar\u0131nda da faiz art\u0131rmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede yeterli faiz seviyeleri yeni art\u0131\u015flar ile sa\u011flanabilecek. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha bekleniyor. Faiz oranlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 5.75\u2019e kadar ula\u015fabilecek. Faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 sonucu dolar di\u011fer para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fcksek de\u011ferini koruyacak. Emtia fiyatlar\u0131 ise y\u00fckselen faizler, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, yava\u015flayan ekonomiler ve zay\u0131flayan talep nedeniyle yaz aylar\u0131 boyunca dura\u011fan kalacak. Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 da jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler g\u00f6lgesinde dura\u011fan kalacak. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

5. T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019DE EKONOM\u0130DE RASYONEL ZEM\u0130NE D\u00d6N\u00dc\u015e KADEMEL\u0130 OLACAK\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ekonomide rasyonel politikalara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcrecinde T.C. Merkez Bankas\u0131 ilk a\u015famada faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 15\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Banka faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclerde art\u0131rarak y\u0131lsonunda y\u00fczde 20\u2019ye kadar y\u00fckseltecek. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yava\u015f ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 normalle\u015fmesi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin risk priminin 500 puan\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyecek. Geleneksel finansman kaynaklar\u0131na eri\u015fim s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

6. TL\u2019DE DE\u011eER KAYBI S\u00dcREB\u0130L\u0130R\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ekonomide rasyonel zemine geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcrecinde T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131lar b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kalkt\u0131 ve TL se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 35 de\u011fer kaybederek dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 26 TL seviyesine kadar geldi. T.C. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yetersiz faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile rasyonel zemine geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn kuvvetli olmayaca\u011f\u0131 da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in TL h\u0131zla de\u011fer kaybetti. Yine TCMB, TL\u2019nin de\u011ferini korumak i\u00e7in rezervlerden d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. TL\u2019de d\u00fczeltme hen\u00fcz tam olarak tamamlanmad\u0131. Rasyonel zemine geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yetersiz olmas\u0131 nedeniyle TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131 s\u00fcrecek. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

SON S\u00d6Z\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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