{"status":true,"post":{"id":16846,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 10:12:46","created_at":"2017-07-09T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T07:12:46.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":16846,"is_featured":0,"title":"Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in beklentiler","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k. D\u00fcnyada, beklendi\u011fi gibi son iki y\u0131la g\u00f6re daha iyi bir yar\u0131y\u0131l ge\u00e7irildi. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de \u00f6zellikle b\u00fcy\u00fcme taraf\u0131nda beklentilerin \u00fczerinde bir performans ya\u015fand\u0131. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin yurti\u00e7i ve yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini de\u011ferlendirelim.<\/span><\/p>

1 - D\u00dcNYADA B\u00dcY\u00dcK MERKEZ BANKALARI ETK\u0130L\u0130 OLACAK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 ekonomileri desteklemek i\u00e7in bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geni\u015fletmi\u015fti. Gelinen noktada k\u00fcresel ekonomideki toparlanmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak merkez bankalar\u0131 giderek bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 normalle\u015ftirmeye yakla\u015f\u0131yor. 2017\u2019nin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed, bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmeye ba\u015flayacak. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 da geni\u015flemeye son vererek k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme plan\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u015flayabilecek. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme s\u00fcrecinde bu \u00fclkelerin para birimleri g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken k\u00fcresel faiz oranlar\u0131 da y\u00fckselecek. Bu etkiler temmuz-a\u011fustos rehavetinden sonra eyl\u00fcl ile g\u00f6r\u00fclecek. <\/span><\/p>

2 - TEMMUZ AYINDAK\u0130 G20 Z\u0130RVES\u0130 YILIN \u0130K\u0130NC\u0130 YARISINI \u015eEK\u0130LLEND\u0130RECEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

G20 Zirvesi, d\u00f6nem ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fcten Almanya\u2019da temmuzda yap\u0131lacak. Zirvenin g\u00fcndemi; kapsay\u0131c\u0131 ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme, iklim anla\u015fmas\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel ter\u00f6r ile m\u00fccadele olacak. Trump, G20 Zirvesi\u2019ne ilk kez kat\u0131lacak. ABD\u2019nin yeni y\u00f6netiminin ele\u015ftirilen iklim anla\u015fmas\u0131ndan \u00e7ekilme gibi bir\u00e7ok ad\u0131m\u0131 zirvede tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lacak. Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcre\u00e7 g\u00fcndemde olacak. Bu alanda ABD ile Rusya \u00e7eki\u015fmesi olas\u0131. Ticarette korumac\u0131l\u0131k konusunu \u00f6zellikle \u00c7in g\u00fcndeme getirecek. K\u00fcresel ter\u00f6r ile m\u00fccadelede ise ortak bir tav\u0131r beklentisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Zirve, ekonomiden \u00e7ok siyasi alanlarda \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmelere ve s\u00fcrprizlere a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/span><\/p>

3 - K\u00d6RFEZ\u2019DE KATAR KR\u0130Z\u0130 B\u00dcY\u00dcYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomik toparlanma \u00f6n\u00fcnde en \u00f6nemli tehdit olarak jeopolitik riskler g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede K\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesinde Katar ile Suudi Arabistan, BAE, M\u0131s\u0131r ve Bahreyn \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki \u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndaki kriz giderek b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri Katar\u2019a yo\u011fun bir abluka uyguluyor. Ablukan\u0131n kalkmas\u0131 i\u00e7in talep edilen 13 maddelik listeyi Katar reddetti. K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin Katar \u00fczerindeki ablukas\u0131, Katar\u2019a destek olan ve ili\u015fkilerini kesmeyen \u00fclkelere do\u011fru geni\u015fleyebilecek. K\u00f6rfez krizi hen\u00fcz s\u0131cak bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riski ta\u015f\u0131mamakla birlikte b\u00f6lgede T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi de etkileyecek \u00f6nemli siyasi ve ekonomik sonu\u00e7lara do\u011fru s\u00fcr\u00fckleniyor. <\/span><\/p>

4 - T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019DE Y\u00dcKSEK EKONOM\u0130K B\u00dcY\u00dcME S\u00dcRECEK <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2017\u2019nin ilk \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 5.0 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. 2017 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde t\u00fcm sekt\u00f6rlerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme ya\u015fand\u0131. Sanayi ve sanayi ihracat\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ana motoru olunca daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye en b\u00fcy\u00fck katk\u0131y\u0131 net ihracat sa\u011flad\u0131. Hane halk\u0131 t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 ile kamu t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 da b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekledi. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde de benzer bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Muhtemelen y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda da b\u00fcy\u00fcme dinamikleri benzer \u015fekilde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya devam edecek.<\/span><\/p>

5 - MERKEZ BANKASI P\u0130YASALARI DESTEKLEMEYE DEVAM EDECEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

TC Merkez Bankas\u0131 piyasalar\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in geni\u015fletici para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Gecelik olarak mali piyasalara bankalar arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 TL likiditesi, 110-120 milyar TL aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesi \u00f6n\u00fcnde de engel olmuyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131 ayr\u0131ca y\u00fckselen b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmek i\u00e7in i\u00e7 bor\u00e7lanmay\u0131 art\u0131ran Hazine i\u00e7in de likidite olanaklar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletiyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131 muhtemelen y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde de geni\u015fletici para <\/span>politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. <\/span><\/p>

6 - T\u00dcRK L\u0130RASI DAHA \u0130ST\u0130KRARLI OLACAK <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f ve sepet kur 4.00 TL\u2019ye kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Yeni y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda ise ya\u015fanan g\u00f6receli normalle\u015fme ile birlikte TL bir miktar de\u011fer kazanm\u0131\u015f olup giderek istikrar kazanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 sepet kur olarak son iki ayd\u0131r 3.70-3.75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dalgalanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu seviye pariteye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 3.50-3.60 dolar\/TL, 3.90-4.00 Euro\/TL bantlar\u0131na denk geliyor. Mevcut ko\u015fullar ve TL faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n seviyesi de\u011fi\u015fmedik\u00e7e TL bu aral\u0131kta en az\u0131ndan bir-iki ay daha kalmaya devam edecek. Y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde ise yeniden bir miktar de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015fanacak.<\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> Jeopolitik ve siyasi riskler engellemez ise i\u00e7eride ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131da ekonomik toparlanma s\u00fcrecek.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"yilin-ikinci-yarisi-icin-beklentiler","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in beklentiler","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":102,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":16945,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":16846,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in beklentiler","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k. D\u00fcnyada, beklendi\u011fi gibi son iki y\u0131la g\u00f6re daha iyi bir yar\u0131y\u0131l ge\u00e7irildi. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de \u00f6zellikle b\u00fcy\u00fcme taraf\u0131nda beklentilerin \u00fczerinde bir performans ya\u015fand\u0131. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin yurti\u00e7i ve yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini de\u011ferlendirelim.<\/span><\/p>

1 - D\u00dcNYADA B\u00dcY\u00dcK MERKEZ BANKALARI ETK\u0130L\u0130 OLACAK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 ekonomileri desteklemek i\u00e7in bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geni\u015fletmi\u015fti. Gelinen noktada k\u00fcresel ekonomideki toparlanmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak merkez bankalar\u0131 giderek bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 normalle\u015ftirmeye yakla\u015f\u0131yor. 2017\u2019nin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed, bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmeye ba\u015flayacak. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 da geni\u015flemeye son vererek k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme plan\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u015flayabilecek. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme s\u00fcrecinde bu \u00fclkelerin para birimleri g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken k\u00fcresel faiz oranlar\u0131 da y\u00fckselecek. Bu etkiler temmuz-a\u011fustos rehavetinden sonra eyl\u00fcl ile g\u00f6r\u00fclecek. <\/span><\/p>

2 - TEMMUZ AYINDAK\u0130 G20 Z\u0130RVES\u0130 YILIN \u0130K\u0130NC\u0130 YARISINI \u015eEK\u0130LLEND\u0130RECEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

G20 Zirvesi, d\u00f6nem ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fcten Almanya\u2019da temmuzda yap\u0131lacak. Zirvenin g\u00fcndemi; kapsay\u0131c\u0131 ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme, iklim anla\u015fmas\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel ter\u00f6r ile m\u00fccadele olacak. Trump, G20 Zirvesi\u2019ne ilk kez kat\u0131lacak. ABD\u2019nin yeni y\u00f6netiminin ele\u015ftirilen iklim anla\u015fmas\u0131ndan \u00e7ekilme gibi bir\u00e7ok ad\u0131m\u0131 zirvede tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lacak. Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcre\u00e7 g\u00fcndemde olacak. Bu alanda ABD ile Rusya \u00e7eki\u015fmesi olas\u0131. Ticarette korumac\u0131l\u0131k konusunu \u00f6zellikle \u00c7in g\u00fcndeme getirecek. K\u00fcresel ter\u00f6r ile m\u00fccadelede ise ortak bir tav\u0131r beklentisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Zirve, ekonomiden \u00e7ok siyasi alanlarda \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmelere ve s\u00fcrprizlere a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/span><\/p>

3 - K\u00d6RFEZ\u2019DE KATAR KR\u0130Z\u0130 B\u00dcY\u00dcYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomik toparlanma \u00f6n\u00fcnde en \u00f6nemli tehdit olarak jeopolitik riskler g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede K\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesinde Katar ile Suudi Arabistan, BAE, M\u0131s\u0131r ve Bahreyn \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki \u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndaki kriz giderek b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri Katar\u2019a yo\u011fun bir abluka uyguluyor. Ablukan\u0131n kalkmas\u0131 i\u00e7in talep edilen 13 maddelik listeyi Katar reddetti. K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin Katar \u00fczerindeki ablukas\u0131, Katar\u2019a destek olan ve ili\u015fkilerini kesmeyen \u00fclkelere do\u011fru geni\u015fleyebilecek. K\u00f6rfez krizi hen\u00fcz s\u0131cak bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riski ta\u015f\u0131mamakla birlikte b\u00f6lgede T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi de etkileyecek \u00f6nemli siyasi ve ekonomik sonu\u00e7lara do\u011fru s\u00fcr\u00fckleniyor. <\/span><\/p>

4 - T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019DE Y\u00dcKSEK EKONOM\u0130K B\u00dcY\u00dcME S\u00dcRECEK <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2017\u2019nin ilk \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 5.0 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. 2017 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde t\u00fcm sekt\u00f6rlerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme ya\u015fand\u0131. Sanayi ve sanayi ihracat\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ana motoru olunca daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye en b\u00fcy\u00fck katk\u0131y\u0131 net ihracat sa\u011flad\u0131. Hane halk\u0131 t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 ile kamu t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 da b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekledi. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde de benzer bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Muhtemelen y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda da b\u00fcy\u00fcme dinamikleri benzer \u015fekilde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya devam edecek.<\/span><\/p>

5 - MERKEZ BANKASI P\u0130YASALARI DESTEKLEMEYE DEVAM EDECEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

TC Merkez Bankas\u0131 piyasalar\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in geni\u015fletici para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Gecelik olarak mali piyasalara bankalar arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 TL likiditesi, 110-120 milyar TL aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesi \u00f6n\u00fcnde de engel olmuyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131 ayr\u0131ca y\u00fckselen b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmek i\u00e7in i\u00e7 bor\u00e7lanmay\u0131 art\u0131ran Hazine i\u00e7in de likidite olanaklar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletiyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131 muhtemelen y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde de geni\u015fletici para <\/span>politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. <\/span><\/p>

6 - T\u00dcRK L\u0130RASI DAHA \u0130ST\u0130KRARLI OLACAK <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f ve sepet kur 4.00 TL\u2019ye kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Yeni y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda ise ya\u015fanan g\u00f6receli normalle\u015fme ile birlikte TL bir miktar de\u011fer kazanm\u0131\u015f olup giderek istikrar kazanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 sepet kur olarak son iki ayd\u0131r 3.70-3.75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dalgalanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu seviye pariteye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 3.50-3.60 dolar\/TL, 3.90-4.00 Euro\/TL bantlar\u0131na denk geliyor. Mevcut ko\u015fullar ve TL faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n seviyesi de\u011fi\u015fmedik\u00e7e TL bu aral\u0131kta en az\u0131ndan bir-iki ay daha kalmaya devam edecek. Y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde ise yeniden bir miktar de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015fanacak.<\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> Jeopolitik ve siyasi riskler engellemez ise i\u00e7eride ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131da ekonomik toparlanma s\u00fcrecek.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"yilin-ikinci-yarisi-icin-beklentiler","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in beklentiler","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":102,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}