{"status":true,"post":{"id":20962,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:58:47","created_at":"2019-10-03T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:58:47.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":20962,"is_featured":0,"title":"YEP ve de\u011fi\u015fim","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr<\/strong><\/span><br><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2020-2022 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan Yeni Ekonomi Program\u0131 (YEP) ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu sene YEP\u2019in ana temas\u0131 \u2018de\u011fi\u015fim\u2019 oldu. Hat\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131lki ana tema \u2018dengelenme\u2019 idi. 2018\u2019in a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z kur \u015foku sonras\u0131nda \u00e7e\u015fitli politika ara\u00e7lar\u0131 kullan\u0131larak bir taraftan enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k azalt\u0131lmaya bir taraftan da ekonomiye yumu\u015fak ini\u015f yapt\u0131r\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Dengelenme s\u00fcrecinde ciddi oranda mesafe kat edildi. Belirsizliklerin azalmas\u0131 ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n iyile\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fimine y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlar\u0131n at\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in daha uygun bir ortam olu\u015ftu. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">YEP\u2019te 2020\u2019ye dair ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi y\u00fczde 3.5\u2019ten y\u00fczde 5\u2019e revize edildi. 2019\u2019da GSYH\u2019nin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde seyretmesinden dolay\u0131 seneye baz etkisi, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan pozitif bir rol oynayacak. Bu y\u0131l ertelenen t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n gelecek y\u0131l \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeye ba\u015flayarak ekonomiye canl\u0131l\u0131k kazand\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor. D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki f\u0131rt\u0131nal\u0131 havan\u0131n dinmesi ve faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle beraber \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n artmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 da muhtemel. B\u00fct\u00fcn bu fakt\u00f6rlerin olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 do\u011fal seyir, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi zaten y\u00fczde 3.5-4 seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131yacak. K\u00fcresel konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye lehine i\u015flemesi ve imalat sanayi i\u00e7in se\u00e7ilen lokomotif sekt\u00f6rlerden beklenen ilk katk\u0131lar\u0131n da gelmesi durumunda 2020 i\u00e7in belirlenen y\u00fczde 5\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi yakalanabilir. 2021 ve 2022\u2019de ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi y\u00fczde 5\u2019te tutmak yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme h\u0131z\u0131na ve etkinli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. Ekonomi istikrar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek ve yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmek ad\u0131na daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131na bir s\u00fcre raz\u0131 olmak da sorun te\u015fkil etmez. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin canlanmas\u0131 neticesinde i\u015fsizlikte kademeli bir gerileme ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 beklense de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de istihdam piyasas\u0131n\u0131n karakteristik \u00f6zelliklerinden dolay\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n en erken 2022\u2019de tek haneli rakamlara inmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu sene a\u00e7\u0131klanan YEP\u2019te 2020 enflasyon hedefi y\u00fczde 9.8\u2019den y\u00fczde 8.5\u2019e geriledi. Enflasyondaki mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnecek olursak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131la dair y\u00fczde 8.5 rakam\u0131 ula\u015f\u0131labilir bir hedef. 2021 ve 2022\u2019de enflasyonun s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 6 ve 4.9\u2019a d\u00fc\u015febilmesi i\u00e7in g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki fiyat kat\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131c\u0131 y\u00f6nde politikalar\u0131n vakit kaybetmeden hayata ge\u00e7irilmesi gerekiyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu sene sonunda y\u00fczde 0.1\u2019lik cari fazla beklenirken, gelecek y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki canlanmayla birlikte y\u00fczde 1.2\u2019lik cari a\u00e7\u0131k verilmesi hedefleniyor. 2022 hedefi ise cari dengeye ula\u015fmak. Ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 zor olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclse de 2022\u2019deki cari denge hedefinin sembolik bir \u00f6nemi var. Bu hedefle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin cari a\u00e7\u0131k vermeden istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi kendine temel hedef olarak se\u00e7ti\u011fine dair net bir mesaj veriliyor. \u0130thal ara mal\u0131 ve enerjideki d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azalt\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra turizm gelirlerini artt\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik hamleleri ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebilirsek, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi orta vadede y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 2 cari a\u00e7\u0131k vererek tutturabilir. 2023 sonras\u0131nda ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden \u00f6d\u00fcn vermeden cari dengenin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in u\u011fra\u015f verilebilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2019\u2019un se\u00e7im y\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131 ve ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131ndan \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc b\u00fct\u00e7e hedeflerinde bir sapma ya\u015fand\u0131. Dengelenme s\u00fcrecindeki s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 ko\u015fullarda ekonomik aktiviteye destek vermek i\u00e7in kamunun vergi gelirlerinden feragat edip baz\u0131 harcama kalemlerini artt\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekiyordu. Kamu bu hususta elinden geleni yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131, yapmaya da devam edecektir. 2022 sonuna kadar b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz 10 y\u0131l\u0131n ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretmeye devam edecek; ancak y\u00fczde 3\u2019l\u00fck Maastricht Kriteri\u2019ni ge\u00e7memesi hedefleniyor. Vergi sisteminin sadele\u015ftirilmesine ve daha adil bir yap\u0131ya kavu\u015fturulmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yap\u0131lacak reformlar, orta vadede b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedefinin tutturulmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik belirleyici unsur olacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"yep-ve-degisim","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"YEP ve de\u011fi\u015fim","meta_description":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1101,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":21061,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":20962,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"YEP ve de\u011fi\u015fim","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr<\/strong><\/span><br><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2020-2022 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan Yeni Ekonomi Program\u0131 (YEP) ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu sene YEP\u2019in ana temas\u0131 \u2018de\u011fi\u015fim\u2019 oldu. Hat\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131lki ana tema \u2018dengelenme\u2019 idi. 2018\u2019in a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z kur \u015foku sonras\u0131nda \u00e7e\u015fitli politika ara\u00e7lar\u0131 kullan\u0131larak bir taraftan enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k azalt\u0131lmaya bir taraftan da ekonomiye yumu\u015fak ini\u015f yapt\u0131r\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Dengelenme s\u00fcrecinde ciddi oranda mesafe kat edildi. Belirsizliklerin azalmas\u0131 ve finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n iyile\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fimine y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlar\u0131n at\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in daha uygun bir ortam olu\u015ftu. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">YEP\u2019te 2020\u2019ye dair ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi y\u00fczde 3.5\u2019ten y\u00fczde 5\u2019e revize edildi. 2019\u2019da GSYH\u2019nin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde seyretmesinden dolay\u0131 seneye baz etkisi, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan pozitif bir rol oynayacak. Bu y\u0131l ertelenen t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n gelecek y\u0131l \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeye ba\u015flayarak ekonomiye canl\u0131l\u0131k kazand\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor. D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki f\u0131rt\u0131nal\u0131 havan\u0131n dinmesi ve faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle beraber \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n artmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 da muhtemel. B\u00fct\u00fcn bu fakt\u00f6rlerin olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 do\u011fal seyir, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi zaten y\u00fczde 3.5-4 seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131yacak. K\u00fcresel konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye lehine i\u015flemesi ve imalat sanayi i\u00e7in se\u00e7ilen lokomotif sekt\u00f6rlerden beklenen ilk katk\u0131lar\u0131n da gelmesi durumunda 2020 i\u00e7in belirlenen y\u00fczde 5\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi yakalanabilir. 2021 ve 2022\u2019de ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi y\u00fczde 5\u2019te tutmak yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme h\u0131z\u0131na ve etkinli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. Ekonomi istikrar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek ve yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmek ad\u0131na daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131na bir s\u00fcre raz\u0131 olmak da sorun te\u015fkil etmez. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin canlanmas\u0131 neticesinde i\u015fsizlikte kademeli bir gerileme ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 beklense de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de istihdam piyasas\u0131n\u0131n karakteristik \u00f6zelliklerinden dolay\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n en erken 2022\u2019de tek haneli rakamlara inmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu sene a\u00e7\u0131klanan YEP\u2019te 2020 enflasyon hedefi y\u00fczde 9.8\u2019den y\u00fczde 8.5\u2019e geriledi. Enflasyondaki mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnecek olursak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131la dair y\u00fczde 8.5 rakam\u0131 ula\u015f\u0131labilir bir hedef. 2021 ve 2022\u2019de enflasyonun s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 6 ve 4.9\u2019a d\u00fc\u015febilmesi i\u00e7in g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki fiyat kat\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131c\u0131 y\u00f6nde politikalar\u0131n vakit kaybetmeden hayata ge\u00e7irilmesi gerekiyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu sene sonunda y\u00fczde 0.1\u2019lik cari fazla beklenirken, gelecek y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki canlanmayla birlikte y\u00fczde 1.2\u2019lik cari a\u00e7\u0131k verilmesi hedefleniyor. 2022 hedefi ise cari dengeye ula\u015fmak. Ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 zor olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclse de 2022\u2019deki cari denge hedefinin sembolik bir \u00f6nemi var. Bu hedefle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin cari a\u00e7\u0131k vermeden istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi kendine temel hedef olarak se\u00e7ti\u011fine dair net bir mesaj veriliyor. \u0130thal ara mal\u0131 ve enerjideki d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azalt\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra turizm gelirlerini artt\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik hamleleri ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebilirsek, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi orta vadede y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 2 cari a\u00e7\u0131k vererek tutturabilir. 2023 sonras\u0131nda ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden \u00f6d\u00fcn vermeden cari dengenin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in u\u011fra\u015f verilebilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2019\u2019un se\u00e7im y\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131 ve ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131ndan \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc b\u00fct\u00e7e hedeflerinde bir sapma ya\u015fand\u0131. Dengelenme s\u00fcrecindeki s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 ko\u015fullarda ekonomik aktiviteye destek vermek i\u00e7in kamunun vergi gelirlerinden feragat edip baz\u0131 harcama kalemlerini artt\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekiyordu. Kamu bu hususta elinden geleni yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131, yapmaya da devam edecektir. 2022 sonuna kadar b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz 10 y\u0131l\u0131n ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretmeye devam edecek; ancak y\u00fczde 3\u2019l\u00fck Maastricht Kriteri\u2019ni ge\u00e7memesi hedefleniyor. Vergi sisteminin sadele\u015ftirilmesine ve daha adil bir yap\u0131ya kavu\u015fturulmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yap\u0131lacak reformlar, orta vadede b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 hedefinin tutturulmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik belirleyici unsur olacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"yep-ve-degisim","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"YEP ve de\u011fi\u015fim","meta_description":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1101,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}