{"status":true,"post":{"id":74075,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":0,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2025-09-12 08:37:00","created_at":"2025-09-12T05:37:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2025-09-12T05:37:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2025-09-12 08:37:00","source_id":null,"post_id":74075,"is_featured":0,"title":"Yeni Orta Vadeli Program i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirmeler","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":"Yeni Orta Vadeli Program i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirmeler","sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"

2026-2028 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k yeni Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Program\u0131n temel \u00f6nceli\u011fi, dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ve kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131d\u0131r. Program\u0131n makro ekonomik hedefleri bu ana \u00f6ncelik \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde \u015fekillendi. Genel olarak makro hedeflerin uyumlu oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

1. B\u00fcy\u00fcme-enflasyon ikilisi daha uyumlu<\/strong><\/p>

Dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinde uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ola\u011fan bir sonu\u00e7tur. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki Orta Vadeli Program\u2019da iddial\u0131 enflasyon hedefleri ile yine g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefleri konulmu\u015ftu. Yeni programda ise 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u0131lsonunda y\u00fczde 16 enflasyon hedeflenirken b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3.8 hedefi belirlendi. B\u00fcy\u00fcme ile enflasyon hedefleri 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in daha tutarl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>


<\/p>

2. Dezenflasyon s\u00fcreci uzuyor<\/strong><\/p>

2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda ilan edilen 2024-2026 Orta Vadeli Program ile 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 15.2 ve 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise tek haneli ve y\u00fczde 8.5 enflasyon hedeflenmi\u015fti. 2025-2027 Orta Vadeli Program ise 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 17.5 ve 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 9.7 enflasyon hedefi belirlemi\u015fti. \u0130ki program\u0131n uygulamas\u0131nda enflasyon hedeflerinin uza\u011f\u0131nda kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 28.5 enflasyon \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2026-2028 program\u0131, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyonu i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 16 hedefi koydu. Tek haneli enflasyona 2027 sonunda y\u00fczde 9 ile ula\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. G\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi enflasyon kat\u0131la\u015ft\u0131 ve dezenflasyon s\u00fcreci uzuyor. S\u00fcrecin uzamas\u0131 da reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>


<\/p>

3. S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 2026\u2019da da s\u00fcrecek \u00a0 \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>

2026-2028 program\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 para ve mali politikan\u0131n 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 boyunca da s\u00fcrece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6zellikle 2026 y\u0131lsonu y\u00fczde 16 enflasyon hedefine ula\u015fabilmek i\u00e7in para politikas\u0131nda kademeli ve temkinli bir gev\u015feme olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. TCMB politika faizi ile piyasa faizlerinde daha yava\u015f bir gerileme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artt\u0131. Dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinde s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n desteklenmesi i\u00e7in g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131, hizmetler, kiralar ile e\u011fitim-sa\u011fl\u0131k alanlar\u0131nda yap\u0131sal iyile\u015ftirmelere ihtiya\u00e7 duyuluyor.<\/p>


<\/p>

4. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 reel olarak de\u011ferlenmeye devam edecek<\/strong><\/p>

T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n reel olarak de\u011ferlenmesi dezenflasyon program\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir politika arac\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131lmaya devam edilecek. Yeni programda 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ortalama dolar\/TL kurunda y\u00fczde 21 art\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 hesab\u0131 kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise ortalama dolar\/TL kurunda art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 17.6 olarak kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Dolar\/TL kuru 2025 y\u0131lsonu i\u00e7in 43.6 ve 2026 sonu i\u00e7in ise 49.6 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu hesaplamada y\u0131ll\u0131k dolar kuru art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 13.8 oluyor. Her iki hesaplamada da TL ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenen ortalama ve y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda reel olarak de\u011fer kazan\u0131yor.<\/p>


<\/p>

5. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k kontrol alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, mal ihracat\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3 art\u0131\u015f hedefleniyor \u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>

Yeni Orta Vadeli Program\u2019da d\u00f6viz dengesine ili\u015fkin iyimser hedefler yer al\u0131yor. Buna g\u00f6re 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda 22.6 milyar dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenen cari a\u00e7\u0131k, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 22.3 milyar dolar olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2025 ve 2026 y\u0131llar\u0131nda hizmetler ihracat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f, cari i\u015flemler dengesine \u00f6nemli katk\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Mal ihracat\u0131nda ise 2025 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 4.6 art\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda sadece y\u00fczde 3 art\u0131\u015f hedeflenmi\u015f. Yeni program, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle ABD\u2019nin tarifelerinin olumsuz etkisiyle d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve ticaretinde zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler bekliyor. \u0130hra\u00e7 pazarlar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler genel olarak dura\u011fan kalacak. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak mal ihracat\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 hedefi de olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 belirlenmi\u015f.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

6. Yeni program reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc nas\u0131l etkileyecek?<\/strong><\/p>

Yeni program, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn talep taraf\u0131nda 2026 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fclemi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u0130\u00e7eride t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.3 ve yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. D\u0131\u015f talep de yine zay\u0131f kalacak. Finansman taraf\u0131nda iyile\u015fme kademeli olacak. Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc rahatlatacak piyasa faiz oranlar\u0131na muhtemelen 2026 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ula\u015f\u0131labilecek. Finansman olanaklar\u0131ndaki gev\u015feme de kademeli ve temkinli ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. TL\u2019deki reel de\u011ferlenme mal ve hizmet ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak. 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 y\u00fczde 20-22 seviyesinde kalacak. Sabit gelirlilerin sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc zay\u0131f kalacak ve bu da i\u00e7 talebi olumsuz etkileyecek. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/em><\/strong> Yeni program kendi i\u00e7inde tutarl\u0131, ancak reel sekt\u00f6re ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlara y\u00fck\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131.<\/p>

\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>","slug":"yeni-orta-vadeli-program-icin-degerlendirmeler","tags":null,"meta_title":"Yeni Orta Vadeli Program i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirmeler","meta_description":"2026-2028 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k yeni Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Program\u0131n temel \u00f6nceli\u011fi, dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ve kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131d\u0131r. Program\u0131n makro ekonomik hedefleri bu ana \u00f6ncelik \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde \u015fekillendi. Genel olarak makro hedeflerin uyumlu oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.","meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/17576244006r6Ffh24Z0fP8Dp.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":0,"cropped_1200x675":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/1200x675\/yeni-orta-vadeli-program-icin-degerlendirmeler_1200x675_XvC9TIKL9n.webp","user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":74207,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":74075,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Yeni Orta Vadeli Program i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirmeler","home_title":"Yeni Orta Vadeli Program i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirmeler","sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"

2026-2028 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k yeni Orta Vadeli Program (OVP) a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Program\u0131n temel \u00f6nceli\u011fi, dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ve kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131d\u0131r. Program\u0131n makro ekonomik hedefleri bu ana \u00f6ncelik \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde \u015fekillendi. Genel olarak makro hedeflerin uyumlu oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

1. B\u00fcy\u00fcme-enflasyon ikilisi daha uyumlu<\/strong><\/p>

Dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinde uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ola\u011fan bir sonu\u00e7tur. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki Orta Vadeli Program\u2019da iddial\u0131 enflasyon hedefleri ile yine g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefleri konulmu\u015ftu. Yeni programda ise 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u0131lsonunda y\u00fczde 16 enflasyon hedeflenirken b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3.8 hedefi belirlendi. B\u00fcy\u00fcme ile enflasyon hedefleri 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in daha tutarl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>


<\/p>

2. Dezenflasyon s\u00fcreci uzuyor<\/strong><\/p>

2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda ilan edilen 2024-2026 Orta Vadeli Program ile 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 15.2 ve 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise tek haneli ve y\u00fczde 8.5 enflasyon hedeflenmi\u015fti. 2025-2027 Orta Vadeli Program ise 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 17.5 ve 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 9.7 enflasyon hedefi belirlemi\u015fti. \u0130ki program\u0131n uygulamas\u0131nda enflasyon hedeflerinin uza\u011f\u0131nda kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 28.5 enflasyon \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2026-2028 program\u0131, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyonu i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 16 hedefi koydu. Tek haneli enflasyona 2027 sonunda y\u00fczde 9 ile ula\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. G\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi enflasyon kat\u0131la\u015ft\u0131 ve dezenflasyon s\u00fcreci uzuyor. S\u00fcrecin uzamas\u0131 da reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>


<\/p>

3. S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 2026\u2019da da s\u00fcrecek \u00a0 \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>

2026-2028 program\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 para ve mali politikan\u0131n 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 boyunca da s\u00fcrece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6zellikle 2026 y\u0131lsonu y\u00fczde 16 enflasyon hedefine ula\u015fabilmek i\u00e7in para politikas\u0131nda kademeli ve temkinli bir gev\u015feme olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. TCMB politika faizi ile piyasa faizlerinde daha yava\u015f bir gerileme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artt\u0131. Dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinde s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n desteklenmesi i\u00e7in g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131, hizmetler, kiralar ile e\u011fitim-sa\u011fl\u0131k alanlar\u0131nda yap\u0131sal iyile\u015ftirmelere ihtiya\u00e7 duyuluyor.<\/p>


<\/p>

4. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 reel olarak de\u011ferlenmeye devam edecek<\/strong><\/p>

T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n reel olarak de\u011ferlenmesi dezenflasyon program\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir politika arac\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131lmaya devam edilecek. Yeni programda 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ortalama dolar\/TL kurunda y\u00fczde 21 art\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 hesab\u0131 kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise ortalama dolar\/TL kurunda art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 17.6 olarak kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Dolar\/TL kuru 2025 y\u0131lsonu i\u00e7in 43.6 ve 2026 sonu i\u00e7in ise 49.6 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu hesaplamada y\u0131ll\u0131k dolar kuru art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 13.8 oluyor. Her iki hesaplamada da TL ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenen ortalama ve y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda reel olarak de\u011fer kazan\u0131yor.<\/p>


<\/p>

5. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k kontrol alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, mal ihracat\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3 art\u0131\u015f hedefleniyor \u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>

Yeni Orta Vadeli Program\u2019da d\u00f6viz dengesine ili\u015fkin iyimser hedefler yer al\u0131yor. Buna g\u00f6re 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda 22.6 milyar dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenen cari a\u00e7\u0131k, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 22.3 milyar dolar olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2025 ve 2026 y\u0131llar\u0131nda hizmetler ihracat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f, cari i\u015flemler dengesine \u00f6nemli katk\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Mal ihracat\u0131nda ise 2025 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 4.6 art\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda sadece y\u00fczde 3 art\u0131\u015f hedeflenmi\u015f. Yeni program, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle ABD\u2019nin tarifelerinin olumsuz etkisiyle d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve ticaretinde zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler bekliyor. \u0130hra\u00e7 pazarlar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler genel olarak dura\u011fan kalacak. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak mal ihracat\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 hedefi de olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 belirlenmi\u015f.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

6. Yeni program reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc nas\u0131l etkileyecek?<\/strong><\/p>

Yeni program, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn talep taraf\u0131nda 2026 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fclemi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u0130\u00e7eride t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.3 ve yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. D\u0131\u015f talep de yine zay\u0131f kalacak. Finansman taraf\u0131nda iyile\u015fme kademeli olacak. Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc rahatlatacak piyasa faiz oranlar\u0131na muhtemelen 2026 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ula\u015f\u0131labilecek. Finansman olanaklar\u0131ndaki gev\u015feme de kademeli ve temkinli ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. TL\u2019deki reel de\u011ferlenme mal ve hizmet ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak. 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 y\u00fczde 20-22 seviyesinde kalacak. Sabit gelirlilerin sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc zay\u0131f kalacak ve bu da i\u00e7 talebi olumsuz etkileyecek. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/em><\/strong> Yeni program kendi i\u00e7inde tutarl\u0131, ancak reel sekt\u00f6re ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlara y\u00fck\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131.<\/p>

\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>


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