{"status":true,"post":{"id":40705,"user_id":2,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-06-12 08:11:00","created_at":"2023-06-12T05:11:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-06-12T05:11:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":40705,"is_featured":0,"title":"Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar, tasarruflar ve faiz oranlar\u0131: \u00c7in\u2019den dersler","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"FAT\u0130H OKTAY","content":"

<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>

fatih@fatihoktay.com<\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

\u00c7in\u2019deki toplam yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 verileriyle \u00fclke GSYH\u2019sinin y\u00fczde 43\u2019\u00fc tutar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Bu oran\u0131n d\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 26. Bu y\u00fcksek yat\u0131r\u0131m oran\u0131 ile \u00c7in\u2019de, iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki fiyat farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 da hesaba kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, s\u00f6z konusu y\u0131lda ABD\u2019de yap\u0131lan\u0131n 2.3 kat\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

\u00c7in\u2019de 90\u2019lar\u0131n ortalar\u0131nda hemen hi\u00e7 otoyol yoktu, bu alanda d\u00fcnya lideri ABD idi; bug\u00fcn \u00c7in\u2019de, ABD\u2019de olan\u0131n iki kat\u0131ndan fazla ve daha kaliteli otoyol var. Benzer durum, hava ve deniz limanlar\u0131 i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli. \u00c7in, bug\u00fcn d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131ndakinin iki kat\u0131 uzunlu\u011funda h\u0131zl\u0131 tren a\u011f\u0131na sahip. \u00dclke, 90\u2019lar\u0131n ortalar\u0131nda \u00e7elik \u00fcretiminde pek \u00f6zel bir konuma sahip de\u011filken, bug\u00fcn d\u00fcnya \u00e7eli\u011finin yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcretiyor. Elektrikli otomobil sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in hi\u00e7 varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yokken, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00fclke d\u00fcnya \u00fcretiminin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiriyordu. T\u00fcm bunlar muazzam yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 demek oluyor ve \u00c7in mucizesinin ard\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bu yat\u0131yor.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

ULUSAL TASARRUF Y\u00dcKSEK<\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

Bu boyutlarda yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan, \u00fclkenin tasarruf oranlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksekli\u011fi; 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00fclkenin ulusal tasarruflar\u0131 GSYH\u2019sinin y\u00fczde 44\u2019\u00fc d\u00fczeyindeydi, yani yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor, fazlas\u0131 da kal\u0131yordu. Bu b\u00f6yle olmasayd\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in \u00fclke tasarruflar\u0131n\u0131n yetmedi\u011fi k\u0131sm\u0131 kadar ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 vermesi ve bunu d\u0131\u015f kaynaklarla finanse etmesi gerekecekti.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz on y\u0131llarda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz \u00fczere, bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkede oldu\u011fu gibi yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n b\u00f6yle finanse edilmesi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmuyor. Yurt i\u00e7i ve\/veya d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler nedeniyle d\u0131\u015f finansmanda aksamalar oldu\u011funda d\u00f6viz cephesinde s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar ba\u015f g\u00f6steriyor, \u00fclke paras\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer kaybetmesi enflasyonu art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu \u015fekilde enflasyon, \u00fclke paras\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131, d\u0131\u015f finansmanda azal\u0131\u015f\u0131n birbirlerini besledi\u011fi sarmallara girilebiliyor.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

\u00c7in\u2019de ulusal tasarruflar\u0131n y\u00fcksekli\u011finin bir\u00e7ok nedeni var. Ulusal tasarruflar bireyler yan\u0131nda \u00fclke \u015firketleri ve devlet taraf\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilir. \u00c7in\u2019de \u015firketler k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmak \u00fczere b\u00fcnyede b\u0131rakarak ulusal tasarruflara katk\u0131 yap\u0131yor.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

GEL\u0130RLER YATIRIMA Y\u00d6NLEND\u0130R\u0130L\u0130YOR<\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

Devlet de gelirlerinin hat\u0131r\u0131 say\u0131l\u0131 bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc t\u00fcketim nitelikli alanlara de\u011fil, yat\u0131r\u0131mlara y\u00f6nlendirerek ulusal tasarruflara katk\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Ancak buradaki ana rol, ulusal tasarruflar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren bireylerde bulunuyor. Bireylerin tasarruf oranlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksekli\u011finde, k\u00fclt\u00fcr, n\u00fcfus dinamikleri, sosyal g\u00fcvenlik sisteminin yetersizli\u011fi gibi bir\u00e7ok neden yan\u0131nda, devletin bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeden farkl\u0131 olarak tasarruflar\u0131 enflasyona ezdirmemi\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir rol\u00fc bulunuyor. \u00dclkede ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz on y\u0131llarda, bireysel tasarruflar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u00f6neldi\u011fi banka mevduat\u0131nda faiz oranlar\u0131, zaman zaman alt\u0131na inip \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131ksa da ortalamada sistematik olarak enflasyonun alt\u0131nda b\u0131rak\u0131lmad\u0131. Bunun b\u00f6yle olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumda bireyler, tasarruflar\u0131 eriyip gitmeden harcamaya y\u00f6neliyor, tasarruflar azal\u0131yor, bu da bir yandan yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmemi\u015fse cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n, bir yandan da talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle enflasyonun artmas\u0131 ve bu ikisi aras\u0131nda bir sarmal\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

\u00d6te yandan, \u00c7in\u2019in gayrimenkul krizinin ard\u0131nda, tasarruflar i\u00e7in sa\u011flanan getirinin sistematik olarak olmasa da zaman zaman enflasyonun alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 ve ortalamada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyde olmas\u0131 nedeniyle bireylerin gayrimenkule y\u00f6nelmesi bulunuyor. Bunun sonucu, bir yandan konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir h\u0131zla artmas\u0131, bir yandan yat\u0131r\u0131m amac\u0131yla al\u0131n\u0131p bo\u015f tutulan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir konut stoku, hatta hayalet kent olarak an\u0131lan tamamen bo\u015f dev yerle\u015fim yerleri, \u00f6te yandan da yat\u0131r\u0131m kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretken olmayan bir sekt\u00f6re akmas\u0131 oldu.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

Bu tecr\u00fcbeler, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde \u00fclkemiz ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n belirlenme s\u00fcrecinde yararl\u0131 girdiler olu\u015fturabilir. \u00a0<\/p>","slug":"yatirimlar-tasarruflar-ve-faiz-oranlari-cinden-dersler","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1686517200Jh2esO5Co9zmQlZ.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1465,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":2,"name":"FAT\u0130H","surname":"OKTAY","email":"ozansoy.tuna@akay.com","slug":"fatih-oktay","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600qSRn7kb3ZZVHU3t.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T14:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":40831,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":40705,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar, tasarruflar ve faiz oranlar\u0131: \u00c7in\u2019den dersler","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"FAT\u0130H OKTAY","content":"

<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>

fatih@fatihoktay.com<\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

\u00c7in\u2019deki toplam yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 verileriyle \u00fclke GSYH\u2019sinin y\u00fczde 43\u2019\u00fc tutar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Bu oran\u0131n d\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 26. Bu y\u00fcksek yat\u0131r\u0131m oran\u0131 ile \u00c7in\u2019de, iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki fiyat farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 da hesaba kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, s\u00f6z konusu y\u0131lda ABD\u2019de yap\u0131lan\u0131n 2.3 kat\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

\u00c7in\u2019de 90\u2019lar\u0131n ortalar\u0131nda hemen hi\u00e7 otoyol yoktu, bu alanda d\u00fcnya lideri ABD idi; bug\u00fcn \u00c7in\u2019de, ABD\u2019de olan\u0131n iki kat\u0131ndan fazla ve daha kaliteli otoyol var. Benzer durum, hava ve deniz limanlar\u0131 i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli. \u00c7in, bug\u00fcn d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131ndakinin iki kat\u0131 uzunlu\u011funda h\u0131zl\u0131 tren a\u011f\u0131na sahip. \u00dclke, 90\u2019lar\u0131n ortalar\u0131nda \u00e7elik \u00fcretiminde pek \u00f6zel bir konuma sahip de\u011filken, bug\u00fcn d\u00fcnya \u00e7eli\u011finin yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcretiyor. Elektrikli otomobil sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in hi\u00e7 varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yokken, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00fclke d\u00fcnya \u00fcretiminin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiriyordu. T\u00fcm bunlar muazzam yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 demek oluyor ve \u00c7in mucizesinin ard\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bu yat\u0131yor.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

ULUSAL TASARRUF Y\u00dcKSEK<\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

Bu boyutlarda yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan, \u00fclkenin tasarruf oranlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksekli\u011fi; 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00fclkenin ulusal tasarruflar\u0131 GSYH\u2019sinin y\u00fczde 44\u2019\u00fc d\u00fczeyindeydi, yani yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor, fazlas\u0131 da kal\u0131yordu. Bu b\u00f6yle olmasayd\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in \u00fclke tasarruflar\u0131n\u0131n yetmedi\u011fi k\u0131sm\u0131 kadar ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 vermesi ve bunu d\u0131\u015f kaynaklarla finanse etmesi gerekecekti.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz on y\u0131llarda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz \u00fczere, bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkede oldu\u011fu gibi yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n b\u00f6yle finanse edilmesi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmuyor. Yurt i\u00e7i ve\/veya d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler nedeniyle d\u0131\u015f finansmanda aksamalar oldu\u011funda d\u00f6viz cephesinde s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar ba\u015f g\u00f6steriyor, \u00fclke paras\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer kaybetmesi enflasyonu art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu \u015fekilde enflasyon, \u00fclke paras\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131, d\u0131\u015f finansmanda azal\u0131\u015f\u0131n birbirlerini besledi\u011fi sarmallara girilebiliyor.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

\u00c7in\u2019de ulusal tasarruflar\u0131n y\u00fcksekli\u011finin bir\u00e7ok nedeni var. Ulusal tasarruflar bireyler yan\u0131nda \u00fclke \u015firketleri ve devlet taraf\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilir. \u00c7in\u2019de \u015firketler k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmak \u00fczere b\u00fcnyede b\u0131rakarak ulusal tasarruflara katk\u0131 yap\u0131yor.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

GEL\u0130RLER YATIRIMA Y\u00d6NLEND\u0130R\u0130L\u0130YOR<\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

Devlet de gelirlerinin hat\u0131r\u0131 say\u0131l\u0131 bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc t\u00fcketim nitelikli alanlara de\u011fil, yat\u0131r\u0131mlara y\u00f6nlendirerek ulusal tasarruflara katk\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Ancak buradaki ana rol, ulusal tasarruflar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren bireylerde bulunuyor. Bireylerin tasarruf oranlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksekli\u011finde, k\u00fclt\u00fcr, n\u00fcfus dinamikleri, sosyal g\u00fcvenlik sisteminin yetersizli\u011fi gibi bir\u00e7ok neden yan\u0131nda, devletin bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeden farkl\u0131 olarak tasarruflar\u0131 enflasyona ezdirmemi\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir rol\u00fc bulunuyor. \u00dclkede ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz on y\u0131llarda, bireysel tasarruflar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u00f6neldi\u011fi banka mevduat\u0131nda faiz oranlar\u0131, zaman zaman alt\u0131na inip \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131ksa da ortalamada sistematik olarak enflasyonun alt\u0131nda b\u0131rak\u0131lmad\u0131. Bunun b\u00f6yle olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumda bireyler, tasarruflar\u0131 eriyip gitmeden harcamaya y\u00f6neliyor, tasarruflar azal\u0131yor, bu da bir yandan yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmemi\u015fse cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n, bir yandan da talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle enflasyonun artmas\u0131 ve bu ikisi aras\u0131nda bir sarmal\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

\u00d6te yandan, \u00c7in\u2019in gayrimenkul krizinin ard\u0131nda, tasarruflar i\u00e7in sa\u011flanan getirinin sistematik olarak olmasa da zaman zaman enflasyonun alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 ve ortalamada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyde olmas\u0131 nedeniyle bireylerin gayrimenkule y\u00f6nelmesi bulunuyor. Bunun sonucu, bir yandan konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir h\u0131zla artmas\u0131, bir yandan yat\u0131r\u0131m amac\u0131yla al\u0131n\u0131p bo\u015f tutulan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir konut stoku, hatta hayalet kent olarak an\u0131lan tamamen bo\u015f dev yerle\u015fim yerleri, \u00f6te yandan da yat\u0131r\u0131m kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretken olmayan bir sekt\u00f6re akmas\u0131 oldu.<\/p>

\u00a0<\/p>

Bu tecr\u00fcbeler, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde \u00fclkemiz ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n belirlenme s\u00fcrecinde yararl\u0131 girdiler olu\u015fturabilir. \u00a0<\/p>","slug":"yatirimlar-tasarruflar-ve-faiz-oranlari-cinden-dersler","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1686517200Jh2esO5Co9zmQlZ.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1686517200Jh2esO5Co9zmQlZ.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1465,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}