{"status":true,"post":{"id":25679,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 15:07:10","created_at":"2021-03-25T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T12:07:10.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":25679,"is_featured":0,"title":"Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem ekonomik beklentiler","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Merkez Bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n 20 ay i\u00e7inde d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc kez de\u011fi\u015fmesi ile ekonomik beklentilerde yine \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fiklikler ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede k\u0131sa vadede olas\u0131 geli\u015fmeleri ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirelim. <\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
1 - EKONOM\u0130DE SORUNLAR YAPISAL HALE GEL\u0130YOR <\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
T\u00fcrkiye, 2001 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar ekonomide \u00f6nemli yap\u0131sal sorunlar biriktirmi\u015fti. Ekonomideki yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131n birikmesi ile 2001 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00e7ok a\u011f\u0131r bir ekonomik kriz ya\u015fand\u0131. Bu ekonomik krizden 2001 y\u0131l\u0131nda haz\u0131rlanan ve b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc yap\u0131sal reformlar i\u00e7eren g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomiye ge\u00e7i\u015f program\u0131n\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131 ile \u00e7\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131. Ancak bug\u00fcn gelmi\u015f oldu\u011fumuz noktada ekonomide yine \u00f6nemli yap\u0131sal sorunlar olu\u015fmu\u015f bulunuyor. Enflasyon y\u00fckseldi ve kat\u0131la\u015ft\u0131. Y\u00fcksek cari sorunu s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Kamu mali disiplininden uzakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Bankalarda y\u00fcksek s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 krediler olu\u015ftu. Merkez Bankas\u0131 net d\u00f6viz rezervleri negatif hale geldi. \u0130\u015fsizlik y\u00fcksek ve yap\u0131sal bir hale geldi. Y\u0131ll\u0131k yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 finansman ihtiyac\u0131 milli gelirin y\u00fczde 30\u2019una kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. <\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
2 - F\u0130NANSAL KIRILGANLIKLAR 2019\u2019DAN \u0130T\u0130BAREN ARTMAYA BA\u015eLADI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
Yap\u0131sal sorunlara ilave olarak son y\u0131llarda finansal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar da art\u0131yor. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 temmuz ay\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimi ile negatif faiz temelli bir para politikas\u0131 benimsenmesi, k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131. Negatif faiz politikas\u0131 ekonomide enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131kta h\u0131zl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7arken, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131 da h\u0131zland\u0131. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011ferini korumak i\u00e7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 d\u00f6viz rezervleri sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde kullan\u0131ld\u0131 ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 net d\u00f6viz rezervleri negatife d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bu geli\u015fmeler ile finansal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar artarken 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019nda ya\u015fanan h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ve risk priminin y\u00fckselmesinin ard\u0131ndan yeniden Merkez Bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti ve s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na ge\u00e7ilerek olas\u0131 bir d\u00f6viz krizi engellendi. <\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
3 - MERKEZ BANKASI YAPISAL SORUNLARI \u00c7\u00d6ZEMEZ <\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndan itibaren TC. Merkez Bankas\u0131 uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ile fiyat istikrar\u0131na ve finansal istikrara odakland\u0131. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde telafi edildi. Finansal istikrar konusunda ilerleme sa\u011fland\u0131. Ancak ekonomide olu\u015fan yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan yap\u0131sal reformlara ili\u015fkin olarak kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndan sonra da kayda de\u011fer bir ad\u0131m at\u0131lmad\u0131. TC. Merkez Bankas\u0131 g\u00f6revi gere\u011fi sadece fiyat istikrar\u0131na ve finansal istikrara odaklanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n adeta t\u00fcm sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yeri gibi g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. <\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
4 - MERKEZ BANKASI BA\u015eKANI DE\u011e\u0130\u015e\u0130M\u0130<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndan sonra g\u00f6receli bir finansal istikrar sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015f iken Merkez Bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131 yeniden de\u011fi\u015fti. Son 20 ayda d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc ba\u015fkan de\u011fi\u015fimi bankan\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sorgulat\u0131rken s\u00fcrekli farkl\u0131 para politikalar\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015f ile g\u00fcven ortam\u0131 da kayboldu. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 yeniden \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fer kaybetti. Bu de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ile ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ula\u015f\u0131lan finansal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klara geri d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc. Sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131, risk primi yeniden 500 puana yakla\u015ft\u0131. Tahvil-bono faizleri y\u00fczde 20\u2019ye, kredi faiz oranlar\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 24-25\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Dolarizasyon da artarak s\u00fcrecek. Y\u00fcksek kredi faizleri ve y\u00fcksek kurlar ile artan girdi fiyatlar\u0131 bile\u015fimi i\u015fletmelerin mali yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkileyecek. Enflasyonda art\u0131\u015f h\u0131zlanacak. Banka ba\u015fkan\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimi ile i\u015fletmeler i\u00e7in k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede olumsuz ko\u015fullar ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. <\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
5 - MERKEZ BANKASI KARARLARI Y\u0130NE BEL\u0130RLEY\u0130C\u0130 OLACAK <\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
Bundan sonras\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uygulayaca\u011f\u0131 para politikas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede belirleyici olmaya devam edecek. Bankan\u0131n iki politika se\u00e7ene\u011fi bulunuyor. \u0130lk se\u00e7enek, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u00fczde 19 faizi sonbahara kadar koruyarak enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sa\u011flamak, ard\u0131ndan y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flamakt\u0131r. Bu se\u00e7enek, banka ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fimi ile ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan olumsuz ko\u015fullar\u0131 hafifletecek. \u0130\u015flerdeki belirsizli\u011fi azaltacak. \u0130kinci se\u00e7enek ise y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde faiz indirimleri yapmaya ba\u015flamakt\u0131r. Bu se\u00e7enek, muhtemelen finansal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131 daha da art\u0131rtacak. T\u00fcrkiye sermaye hareketleri ve d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerine s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar dahil radikal \u00f6nlemler almak zorunda kalabilecek. <\/span>
<\/span>
\u0130\u015fler de \u00e7ok olumsuz etkilenecek. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uygulayaca\u011f\u0131 para politikas\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak T\u00fcrkiye yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcne de halen ihtiya\u00e7 duyuyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
SON S\u00d6Z <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve finansal istikrar politikalar\u0131 ile yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131 birlikte g\u00f6zetelim ve uygulayal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"yakin-donem-ekonomik-beklentiler","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem ekonomik beklentiler","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1102,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":25778,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":25679,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem ekonomik beklentiler","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Merkez Bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n 20 ay i\u00e7inde d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc kez de\u011fi\u015fmesi ile ekonomik beklentilerde yine \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fiklikler ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede k\u0131sa vadede olas\u0131 geli\u015fmeleri ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirelim. <\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
1 - EKONOM\u0130DE SORUNLAR YAPISAL HALE GEL\u0130YOR <\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
T\u00fcrkiye, 2001 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar ekonomide \u00f6nemli yap\u0131sal sorunlar biriktirmi\u015fti. Ekonomideki yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131n birikmesi ile 2001 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00e7ok a\u011f\u0131r bir ekonomik kriz ya\u015fand\u0131. Bu ekonomik krizden 2001 y\u0131l\u0131nda haz\u0131rlanan ve b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc yap\u0131sal reformlar i\u00e7eren g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomiye ge\u00e7i\u015f program\u0131n\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131 ile \u00e7\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131. Ancak bug\u00fcn gelmi\u015f oldu\u011fumuz noktada ekonomide yine \u00f6nemli yap\u0131sal sorunlar olu\u015fmu\u015f bulunuyor. Enflasyon y\u00fckseldi ve kat\u0131la\u015ft\u0131. Y\u00fcksek cari sorunu s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Kamu mali disiplininden uzakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Bankalarda y\u00fcksek s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 krediler olu\u015ftu. Merkez Bankas\u0131 net d\u00f6viz rezervleri negatif hale geldi. \u0130\u015fsizlik y\u00fcksek ve yap\u0131sal bir hale geldi. Y\u0131ll\u0131k yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 finansman ihtiyac\u0131 milli gelirin y\u00fczde 30\u2019una kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. <\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
2 - F\u0130NANSAL KIRILGANLIKLAR 2019\u2019DAN \u0130T\u0130BAREN ARTMAYA BA\u015eLADI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
Yap\u0131sal sorunlara ilave olarak son y\u0131llarda finansal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar da art\u0131yor. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 temmuz ay\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimi ile negatif faiz temelli bir para politikas\u0131 benimsenmesi, k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131. Negatif faiz politikas\u0131 ekonomide enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131kta h\u0131zl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7arken, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131 da h\u0131zland\u0131. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011ferini korumak i\u00e7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 d\u00f6viz rezervleri sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde kullan\u0131ld\u0131 ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 net d\u00f6viz rezervleri negatife d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bu geli\u015fmeler ile finansal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar artarken 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019nda ya\u015fanan h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ve risk priminin y\u00fckselmesinin ard\u0131ndan yeniden Merkez Bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti ve s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na ge\u00e7ilerek olas\u0131 bir d\u00f6viz krizi engellendi. <\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
3 - MERKEZ BANKASI YAPISAL SORUNLARI \u00c7\u00d6ZEMEZ <\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndan itibaren TC. Merkez Bankas\u0131 uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ile fiyat istikrar\u0131na ve finansal istikrara odakland\u0131. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde telafi edildi. Finansal istikrar konusunda ilerleme sa\u011fland\u0131. Ancak ekonomide olu\u015fan yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan yap\u0131sal reformlara ili\u015fkin olarak kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndan sonra da kayda de\u011fer bir ad\u0131m at\u0131lmad\u0131. TC. Merkez Bankas\u0131 g\u00f6revi gere\u011fi sadece fiyat istikrar\u0131na ve finansal istikrara odaklanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n adeta t\u00fcm sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yeri gibi g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. <\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
4 - MERKEZ BANKASI BA\u015eKANI DE\u011e\u0130\u015e\u0130M\u0130<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndan sonra g\u00f6receli bir finansal istikrar sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015f iken Merkez Bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131 yeniden de\u011fi\u015fti. Son 20 ayda d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc ba\u015fkan de\u011fi\u015fimi bankan\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sorgulat\u0131rken s\u00fcrekli farkl\u0131 para politikalar\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015f ile g\u00fcven ortam\u0131 da kayboldu. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 yeniden \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fer kaybetti. Bu de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ile ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ula\u015f\u0131lan finansal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klara geri d\u00f6n\u00fcld\u00fc. Sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131, risk primi yeniden 500 puana yakla\u015ft\u0131. Tahvil-bono faizleri y\u00fczde 20\u2019ye, kredi faiz oranlar\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 24-25\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Dolarizasyon da artarak s\u00fcrecek. Y\u00fcksek kredi faizleri ve y\u00fcksek kurlar ile artan girdi fiyatlar\u0131 bile\u015fimi i\u015fletmelerin mali yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkileyecek. Enflasyonda art\u0131\u015f h\u0131zlanacak. Banka ba\u015fkan\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimi ile i\u015fletmeler i\u00e7in k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede olumsuz ko\u015fullar ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. <\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
5 - MERKEZ BANKASI KARARLARI Y\u0130NE BEL\u0130RLEY\u0130C\u0130 OLACAK <\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
Bundan sonras\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uygulayaca\u011f\u0131 para politikas\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede belirleyici olmaya devam edecek. Bankan\u0131n iki politika se\u00e7ene\u011fi bulunuyor. \u0130lk se\u00e7enek, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u00fczde 19 faizi sonbahara kadar koruyarak enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sa\u011flamak, ard\u0131ndan y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flamakt\u0131r. Bu se\u00e7enek, banka ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fimi ile ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan olumsuz ko\u015fullar\u0131 hafifletecek. \u0130\u015flerdeki belirsizli\u011fi azaltacak. \u0130kinci se\u00e7enek ise y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde faiz indirimleri yapmaya ba\u015flamakt\u0131r. Bu se\u00e7enek, muhtemelen finansal k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131 daha da art\u0131rtacak. T\u00fcrkiye sermaye hareketleri ve d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerine s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar dahil radikal \u00f6nlemler almak zorunda kalabilecek. <\/span>
<\/span>
\u0130\u015fler de \u00e7ok olumsuz etkilenecek. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uygulayaca\u011f\u0131 para politikas\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak T\u00fcrkiye yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcne de halen ihtiya\u00e7 duyuyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
SON S\u00d6Z <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve finansal istikrar politikalar\u0131 ile yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131 birlikte g\u00f6zetelim ve uygulayal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"yakin-donem-ekonomik-beklentiler","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem ekonomik beklentiler","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1102,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}