{"status":true,"post":{"id":23848,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:33:56","created_at":"2020-12-10T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:33:56.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":23848,"is_featured":0,"title":"Yabanc\u0131 sermaye ve d\u00f6viz y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Y\u0131l sonu yakla\u015f\u0131rken k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki belirsizlik seviyesi azal\u0131yor. Salg\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 geli\u015ftirilen a\u015f\u0131lar ve sonu\u00e7lanan ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imleri, belirsizlik bulutlar\u0131n\u0131 da\u011f\u0131tan ana fakt\u00f6rler. K\u00fcresel belirsizliklerin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 son haftalarda uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere (GO\u00dc) olan yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u015fahit oluyoruz. Merkez bankalar\u0131 salg\u0131n d\u00f6neminde para musluklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131nca k\u00fcresel likidite bolla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eimdilerde bu bol likidite yava\u015f da olsa GO\u00dc\u2019lere kay\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye de bundan nasibini al\u0131yor. 9-27 Kas\u0131m tarihleri aras\u0131nda 1.8 milyar dolarl\u0131k net yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi var. E\u011fer jeopolitik risklere ve salg\u0131n\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131na dair beklenmedik geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fanmazsa, GO\u00dc\u2019lere y\u00f6nelik bu ilginin 2021\u2019de artarak devam etmesi bekleniyor. <\/span><\/p>

VER\u0130ML\u0130 YATIRIMA D\u00d6N\u00dc\u015e\u00dcYOR MU?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Buradaki en \u00f6nemli mesele, \u00fclkelerin yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015flerini ne derece verimli yat\u0131r\u0131mlara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrebilecekleriyle ilgili. 2008\u2019deki k\u00fcresel finans krizinden sonra T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye gelen yabanc\u0131 sermaye etkin bi\u00e7imde de\u011ferlendirilemedi. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011flant\u0131 koptu. B\u00fcy\u00fcme, k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye giri\u015fine ve kredilere ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir hale geldi. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k patlad\u0131. Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u00f6viz cinsinden borcu artt\u0131. D\u00f6viz geliri olmayan ve finansal risklerini profesyonel bi\u00e7imde y\u00f6netmeyen \u015firketler de buna dahil. <\/span><\/p>

Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, bizi 2018\u2019deki kur \u015fokuna kadar g\u00f6t\u00fcrd\u00fc. Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn net d\u00f6viz a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonu Mart 2018\u2019de 222.5 milyar dolarla zirveyi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Kur riskinden bunalan reel sekt\u00f6r, o g\u00fcnden bug\u00fcne d\u00f6viz cinsinden y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerinden bir an \u00f6nce kurtulman\u0131n pe\u015finde. Bu konuda belli bir mesafe kat edildi. Kademeli azal\u0131\u015flar sonras\u0131nda bug\u00fcn reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn net d\u00f6viz a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonu 162.2 milyar dolara kadar indi.<\/span><\/p>

S\u00dcRD\u00dcR\u00dcLEB\u0130L\u0130R B\u00dcY\u00dcME \u0130\u00c7\u0130N<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Yabanc\u0131 sermayeyi sadece kolay ve ucuz para olarak g\u00f6rmemeliyiz. K\u0131sa vadede b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi canland\u0131rma pe\u015finde ko\u015fmamal\u0131y\u0131z. Sermaye giri\u015flerini T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine orta ve uzun vadede ger\u00e7ek anlamda katk\u0131 sa\u011flayacak yat\u0131r\u0131m alanlar\u0131na ve sekt\u00f6rlere y\u00f6nlendirmeliyiz. <\/span><\/p>

Bir taraftan da reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde makul seviyelere indirmeliyiz. Zira, GSYH\u2019nin y\u00fczde 69\u2019una denk gelen reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc, bizim gibi GO\u00dc\u2019lerin oranlar\u0131na k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fcksek ka\u00e7\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

Gelecek senenin bizim gibi \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fleri noktas\u0131nda parlak ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fi ihtimali, bunun uzun y\u0131llar devam edece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. 2022\u2019de mi yoksa 2023\u2019de mi bilinmez ama belli bir s\u00fcre sonra geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde faizlerin yeniden y\u00fckselece\u011fini ve b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 boyunca piyasalara pompalad\u0131klar\u0131 trilyonlarca dolar\u0131 geri \u00e7a\u011f\u0131racaklar\u0131n\u0131 unutmayal\u0131m. <\/span><\/p>

Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, \u00fclkemize \u00e7ekebilece\u011fimiz her bir dolarl\u0131k yabanc\u0131 sermayeyi ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan verimli alanlara y\u00f6nlendirdi\u011fimizden, m\u00fcmk\u00fcn mertebe uzun vadeli sermaye \u00e7ekti\u011fimizden ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn kur riskini ve bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc ta\u015f\u0131nabilir seviyelere indirdi\u011fimizden emin olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Bunu ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebilirsek rakiplerimizden ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131r\u0131z ve daha s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 yakalar\u0131z.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"yabanci-sermaye-ve-doviz-yukumlulukleri","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Yabanc\u0131 sermaye ve d\u00f6viz y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri","meta_description":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1097,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":23947,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":23848,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Yabanc\u0131 sermaye ve d\u00f6viz y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Y\u0131l sonu yakla\u015f\u0131rken k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki belirsizlik seviyesi azal\u0131yor. Salg\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 geli\u015ftirilen a\u015f\u0131lar ve sonu\u00e7lanan ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imleri, belirsizlik bulutlar\u0131n\u0131 da\u011f\u0131tan ana fakt\u00f6rler. K\u00fcresel belirsizliklerin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 son haftalarda uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere (GO\u00dc) olan yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u015fahit oluyoruz. Merkez bankalar\u0131 salg\u0131n d\u00f6neminde para musluklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131nca k\u00fcresel likidite bolla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eimdilerde bu bol likidite yava\u015f da olsa GO\u00dc\u2019lere kay\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye de bundan nasibini al\u0131yor. 9-27 Kas\u0131m tarihleri aras\u0131nda 1.8 milyar dolarl\u0131k net yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi var. E\u011fer jeopolitik risklere ve salg\u0131n\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131na dair beklenmedik geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fanmazsa, GO\u00dc\u2019lere y\u00f6nelik bu ilginin 2021\u2019de artarak devam etmesi bekleniyor. <\/span><\/p>

VER\u0130ML\u0130 YATIRIMA D\u00d6N\u00dc\u015e\u00dcYOR MU?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Buradaki en \u00f6nemli mesele, \u00fclkelerin yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015flerini ne derece verimli yat\u0131r\u0131mlara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrebilecekleriyle ilgili. 2008\u2019deki k\u00fcresel finans krizinden sonra T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye gelen yabanc\u0131 sermaye etkin bi\u00e7imde de\u011ferlendirilemedi. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011flant\u0131 koptu. B\u00fcy\u00fcme, k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye giri\u015fine ve kredilere ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir hale geldi. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k patlad\u0131. Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u00f6viz cinsinden borcu artt\u0131. D\u00f6viz geliri olmayan ve finansal risklerini profesyonel bi\u00e7imde y\u00f6netmeyen \u015firketler de buna dahil. <\/span><\/p>

Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, bizi 2018\u2019deki kur \u015fokuna kadar g\u00f6t\u00fcrd\u00fc. Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn net d\u00f6viz a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonu Mart 2018\u2019de 222.5 milyar dolarla zirveyi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Kur riskinden bunalan reel sekt\u00f6r, o g\u00fcnden bug\u00fcne d\u00f6viz cinsinden y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerinden bir an \u00f6nce kurtulman\u0131n pe\u015finde. Bu konuda belli bir mesafe kat edildi. Kademeli azal\u0131\u015flar sonras\u0131nda bug\u00fcn reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn net d\u00f6viz a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonu 162.2 milyar dolara kadar indi.<\/span><\/p>

S\u00dcRD\u00dcR\u00dcLEB\u0130L\u0130R B\u00dcY\u00dcME \u0130\u00c7\u0130N<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Yabanc\u0131 sermayeyi sadece kolay ve ucuz para olarak g\u00f6rmemeliyiz. K\u0131sa vadede b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi canland\u0131rma pe\u015finde ko\u015fmamal\u0131y\u0131z. Sermaye giri\u015flerini T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine orta ve uzun vadede ger\u00e7ek anlamda katk\u0131 sa\u011flayacak yat\u0131r\u0131m alanlar\u0131na ve sekt\u00f6rlere y\u00f6nlendirmeliyiz. <\/span><\/p>

Bir taraftan da reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde makul seviyelere indirmeliyiz. Zira, GSYH\u2019nin y\u00fczde 69\u2019una denk gelen reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc, bizim gibi GO\u00dc\u2019lerin oranlar\u0131na k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fcksek ka\u00e7\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

Gelecek senenin bizim gibi \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fleri noktas\u0131nda parlak ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fi ihtimali, bunun uzun y\u0131llar devam edece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. 2022\u2019de mi yoksa 2023\u2019de mi bilinmez ama belli bir s\u00fcre sonra geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde faizlerin yeniden y\u00fckselece\u011fini ve b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 boyunca piyasalara pompalad\u0131klar\u0131 trilyonlarca dolar\u0131 geri \u00e7a\u011f\u0131racaklar\u0131n\u0131 unutmayal\u0131m. <\/span><\/p>

Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, \u00fclkemize \u00e7ekebilece\u011fimiz her bir dolarl\u0131k yabanc\u0131 sermayeyi ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan verimli alanlara y\u00f6nlendirdi\u011fimizden, m\u00fcmk\u00fcn mertebe uzun vadeli sermaye \u00e7ekti\u011fimizden ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn kur riskini ve bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc ta\u015f\u0131nabilir seviyelere indirdi\u011fimizden emin olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Bunu ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebilirsek rakiplerimizden ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131r\u0131z ve daha s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 yakalar\u0131z.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"yabanci-sermaye-ve-doviz-yukumlulukleri","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Yabanc\u0131 sermaye ve d\u00f6viz y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri","meta_description":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1097,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}