{"status":true,"post":{"id":32571,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 21:04:47","created_at":"2022-04-21T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T18:04:47.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":32571,"is_featured":0,"title":"Uzayan sava\u015f ve ekonomik etkileri","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgali ile ba\u015flayan sava\u015f uzuyor. Mevcut beklentiler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde sava\u015f\u0131n daha da uzayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Rusya\u2019ya uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n sava\u015fa son vermesi i\u00e7in yeterli olmuyor. Rusya, 2022\u2019de artan fiyatlar ile 300 milyar dolara yak\u0131n enerji geliri elde edecek ve bu nedenle Rusya\u2019ya do\u011falgaz yapt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 uygulanamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece de Rusya ekonomik olarak sava\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilecek. <\/span>
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1. SAVA\u015eIN SERTLE\u015eECEK OLMASI EKONOM\u0130K ETK\u0130LER\u0130 ARTIRACAK<\/strong><\/span>
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\u0130kinci ay\u0131n\u0131 bitirmekte olan sava\u015fta Rusya, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n do\u011fusundaki Donbas b\u00f6lgesinde tam hakimiyet elde etmek i\u00e7in kapsaml\u0131 bir harekata ba\u015flad\u0131. Bat\u0131 ise Ukrayna\u2019ya artan miktarda silah yard\u0131m\u0131 yap\u0131yor. May\u0131s ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde sava\u015f\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n do\u011fusunda sertle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Muhtemelen insani kay\u0131plar \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artacak.<\/span>
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2. BATI \u0130LE RUSYA ARASINDA KOPMA YA\u015eANIRKEN ENERJ\u0130 D\u00dcZEN\u0130 DE\u011e\u0130\u015eECEK<\/strong><\/span>
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Sava\u015f, Bat\u0131 ile Rusya aras\u0131nda uzun y\u0131llar s\u00fcrecek bir kopma yaratm\u0131\u015f bulunuyor. Pandemi sonras\u0131 k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte olu\u015fan yeni normal ko\u015fullar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan sava\u015f\u0131n etkisiyle bu kez yepyeni k\u00fcresel dengeler olu\u015facak. AB; Ukrayna, Moldova ve G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n \u00fcyelik s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini h\u0131zland\u0131rarak do\u011fuya do\u011fru geni\u015flemede kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. \u0130sve\u00e7 ve Finlandiya ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere NATO da kuzeye ve do\u011fuya do\u011fru geni\u015fleyebilecek. Yeni ittifaklar\u0131n da olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Enerjide arz ve tedarik d\u00fczeni b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fecek. Bat\u0131, Rusya\u2019ya olan enerji ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 en aza indirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak. Orta Do\u011fu ve Afrika\u2019n\u0131n enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa i\u00e7in \u00f6nemi artt\u0131. Rusya ise do\u011falgaz ihracat\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fuya kayd\u0131racak. Enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yeni d\u00fczen, enerji gelirlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ticaret ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 da de\u011fi\u015ftirecek. <\/span>
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3. SAVA\u015eIN HIZLANDIRDI\u011eI Y\u00dcKSEK ENFLASYON, S\u0130YAS\u0130 VE TOPLUMSAL SIKINTILARA YOL A\u00c7MAYA BA\u015eLADI <\/strong><\/span>
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Y\u00fcksek k\u00fcresel enflasyonla birle\u015fen enerji ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ile enerji ve g\u0131da g\u00fcvenli\u011fi de en kritik konulardan biri haline geliyor. G\u0131da milliyet\u00e7ili\u011fi giderek y\u00fckseliyor. G\u00fcbre fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f \u00fcretimi tehdit ederken, g\u0131da ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede toplumsal s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lara yol a\u00e7maya ba\u015flad\u0131. L\u00fcbnan, Sri Lanka, Pakistan ve Peru\u2019da siyasi dalgalanmalar ya\u015fan\u0131yor. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n iki b\u00fcy\u00fck tar\u0131m \u00fcreticisi ve ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 Rusya ve Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131, k\u00fcresel tar\u0131m dengelerini de alt \u00fcst etmi\u015f durumda. <\/span>
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4. UZAYAN SAVA\u015eLA D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130 YAVA\u015eLIYOR <\/strong><\/span>
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Sava\u015f\u0131n k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemli k\u00fcresel ekonomik etkileri de giderek netle\u015fiyor. Uzayan sava\u015f, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde yava\u015flama etkisini g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flad\u0131. 2022\u2019de d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in sava\u015f \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fczde 4.0-4.5 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri, sava\u015f\u0131n mevcut hali \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde y\u00fczde 3.0-3.5 seviyelerine kadar gerilemi\u015f bulunuyor. Bir yandan sava\u015f, di\u011fer yandan sava\u015f\u0131n da h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00fcresel enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n daha erken s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ad\u0131mlar\u0131, k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi yava\u015flatacak.<\/span>
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5. D\u00dcNYA T\u0130CARET\u0130NDE DE SINIRLAYICI ETK\u0130LER BA\u015eLADI <\/strong><\/span>
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Sava\u015f\u0131n d\u00fcnya ticaretindeki etkilerine ili\u015fkin olarak ise D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn nisan ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler yol g\u00f6sterici oluyor. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya mal ticareti verileri de kesinle\u015fti. Buna g\u00f6re d\u00fcnya mal ticareti 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda miktar olarak y\u00fczde 9.8, de\u011fer olarak ise y\u00fczde 26.3 artarak 22.28 trilyon dolar oldu. <\/span>
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2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda ticarete konu olan mallar\u0131n ortalama birim fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 15 y\u00fckseldi. D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc, 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 ticaret \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini ise a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncelledi. \u00d6rg\u00fct, sava\u015f \u00f6ncesinde 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in mal ticaretinin miktar olarak y\u00fczde 4.7 geni\u015fleyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, sava\u015f sonras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini y\u00fczde 3.0\u2019a \u00e7ekti. D\u00fcnya mal ticaretinde de\u011fer olarak ise art\u0131\u015f beklentisi y\u00fczde 6.8\u2019den y\u00fczde 7.6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Miktar olarak yava\u015flamaya kar\u015f\u0131n de\u011fer olarak art\u0131\u015f g\u00fcncellemesinin nedeni sava\u015f\u0131n enerji, g\u0131da ve metal fiyatlar\u0131nda yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. <\/span>
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T\u00fcm bu de\u011ferlendirmeler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in ihracat hedeflerine ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131nda riskler; AB\u2019nin yava\u015flamas\u0131 ile T\u00fcrk liras\u0131na y\u00f6nelik m\u00fcdahaleler, f\u0131rsat ise daha da bozulan tedarik zincirleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda sahip olunan \u00fcretim potansiyeli olacak.<\/span>
<\/span>
SON S\u00d6Z <\/strong><\/span>
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Sava\u015f\u0131n olumsuz etkileri artarken, \u00f6ncelikle insani olarak sava\u015f bir an \u00f6nce sona ermeli ve en az ekonomik kay\u0131plar ya\u015fanmal\u0131.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"uzayan-savas-ve-ekonomik-etkileri","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Uzayan sava\u015f ve ekonomik etkileri","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1102,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":32670,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":32571,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Uzayan sava\u015f ve ekonomik etkileri","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgali ile ba\u015flayan sava\u015f uzuyor. Mevcut beklentiler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde sava\u015f\u0131n daha da uzayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Rusya\u2019ya uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n sava\u015fa son vermesi i\u00e7in yeterli olmuyor. Rusya, 2022\u2019de artan fiyatlar ile 300 milyar dolara yak\u0131n enerji geliri elde edecek ve bu nedenle Rusya\u2019ya do\u011falgaz yapt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 uygulanamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece de Rusya ekonomik olarak sava\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilecek. <\/span>
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1. SAVA\u015eIN SERTLE\u015eECEK OLMASI EKONOM\u0130K ETK\u0130LER\u0130 ARTIRACAK<\/strong><\/span>
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\u0130kinci ay\u0131n\u0131 bitirmekte olan sava\u015fta Rusya, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n do\u011fusundaki Donbas b\u00f6lgesinde tam hakimiyet elde etmek i\u00e7in kapsaml\u0131 bir harekata ba\u015flad\u0131. Bat\u0131 ise Ukrayna\u2019ya artan miktarda silah yard\u0131m\u0131 yap\u0131yor. May\u0131s ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde sava\u015f\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n do\u011fusunda sertle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Muhtemelen insani kay\u0131plar \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artacak.<\/span>
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2. BATI \u0130LE RUSYA ARASINDA KOPMA YA\u015eANIRKEN ENERJ\u0130 D\u00dcZEN\u0130 DE\u011e\u0130\u015eECEK<\/strong><\/span>
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Sava\u015f, Bat\u0131 ile Rusya aras\u0131nda uzun y\u0131llar s\u00fcrecek bir kopma yaratm\u0131\u015f bulunuyor. Pandemi sonras\u0131 k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte olu\u015fan yeni normal ko\u015fullar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan sava\u015f\u0131n etkisiyle bu kez yepyeni k\u00fcresel dengeler olu\u015facak. AB; Ukrayna, Moldova ve G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n \u00fcyelik s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini h\u0131zland\u0131rarak do\u011fuya do\u011fru geni\u015flemede kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. \u0130sve\u00e7 ve Finlandiya ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere NATO da kuzeye ve do\u011fuya do\u011fru geni\u015fleyebilecek. Yeni ittifaklar\u0131n da olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Enerjide arz ve tedarik d\u00fczeni b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fecek. Bat\u0131, Rusya\u2019ya olan enerji ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 en aza indirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak. Orta Do\u011fu ve Afrika\u2019n\u0131n enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa i\u00e7in \u00f6nemi artt\u0131. Rusya ise do\u011falgaz ihracat\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fuya kayd\u0131racak. Enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yeni d\u00fczen, enerji gelirlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ticaret ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 da de\u011fi\u015ftirecek. <\/span>
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3. SAVA\u015eIN HIZLANDIRDI\u011eI Y\u00dcKSEK ENFLASYON, S\u0130YAS\u0130 VE TOPLUMSAL SIKINTILARA YOL A\u00c7MAYA BA\u015eLADI <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Y\u00fcksek k\u00fcresel enflasyonla birle\u015fen enerji ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ile enerji ve g\u0131da g\u00fcvenli\u011fi de en kritik konulardan biri haline geliyor. G\u0131da milliyet\u00e7ili\u011fi giderek y\u00fckseliyor. G\u00fcbre fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f \u00fcretimi tehdit ederken, g\u0131da ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede toplumsal s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lara yol a\u00e7maya ba\u015flad\u0131. L\u00fcbnan, Sri Lanka, Pakistan ve Peru\u2019da siyasi dalgalanmalar ya\u015fan\u0131yor. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n iki b\u00fcy\u00fck tar\u0131m \u00fcreticisi ve ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 Rusya ve Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131, k\u00fcresel tar\u0131m dengelerini de alt \u00fcst etmi\u015f durumda. <\/span>
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4. UZAYAN SAVA\u015eLA D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130 YAVA\u015eLIYOR <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Sava\u015f\u0131n k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemli k\u00fcresel ekonomik etkileri de giderek netle\u015fiyor. Uzayan sava\u015f, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde yava\u015flama etkisini g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flad\u0131. 2022\u2019de d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in sava\u015f \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fczde 4.0-4.5 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri, sava\u015f\u0131n mevcut hali \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde y\u00fczde 3.0-3.5 seviyelerine kadar gerilemi\u015f bulunuyor. Bir yandan sava\u015f, di\u011fer yandan sava\u015f\u0131n da h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00fcresel enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n daha erken s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ad\u0131mlar\u0131, k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi yava\u015flatacak.<\/span>
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5. D\u00dcNYA T\u0130CARET\u0130NDE DE SINIRLAYICI ETK\u0130LER BA\u015eLADI <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Sava\u015f\u0131n d\u00fcnya ticaretindeki etkilerine ili\u015fkin olarak ise D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn nisan ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler yol g\u00f6sterici oluyor. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya mal ticareti verileri de kesinle\u015fti. Buna g\u00f6re d\u00fcnya mal ticareti 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda miktar olarak y\u00fczde 9.8, de\u011fer olarak ise y\u00fczde 26.3 artarak 22.28 trilyon dolar oldu. <\/span>
<\/span>
2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda ticarete konu olan mallar\u0131n ortalama birim fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 15 y\u00fckseldi. D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc, 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 ticaret \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini ise a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncelledi. \u00d6rg\u00fct, sava\u015f \u00f6ncesinde 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in mal ticaretinin miktar olarak y\u00fczde 4.7 geni\u015fleyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, sava\u015f sonras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini y\u00fczde 3.0\u2019a \u00e7ekti. D\u00fcnya mal ticaretinde de\u011fer olarak ise art\u0131\u015f beklentisi y\u00fczde 6.8\u2019den y\u00fczde 7.6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Miktar olarak yava\u015flamaya kar\u015f\u0131n de\u011fer olarak art\u0131\u015f g\u00fcncellemesinin nedeni sava\u015f\u0131n enerji, g\u0131da ve metal fiyatlar\u0131nda yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. <\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcm bu de\u011ferlendirmeler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in ihracat hedeflerine ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131nda riskler; AB\u2019nin yava\u015flamas\u0131 ile T\u00fcrk liras\u0131na y\u00f6nelik m\u00fcdahaleler, f\u0131rsat ise daha da bozulan tedarik zincirleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda sahip olunan \u00fcretim potansiyeli olacak.<\/span>
<\/span>
SON S\u00d6Z <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Sava\u015f\u0131n olumsuz etkileri artarken, \u00f6ncelikle insani olarak sava\u015f bir an \u00f6nce sona ermeli ve en az ekonomik kay\u0131plar ya\u015fanmal\u0131.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"uzayan-savas-ve-ekonomik-etkileri","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Uzayan sava\u015f ve ekonomik etkileri","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1102,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}