{"status":true,"post":{"id":17161,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 10:16:33","created_at":"2017-09-17T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T07:16:33.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":17161,"is_featured":0,"title":"T\u00fcrk ekonomisi tahminleri alt \u00fcst etti","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

T\u00fcrkiye 15 Temmuz 2016\u2019da FET\u00d6 darbe giri\u015fimi ile 21. y\u00fczy\u0131lda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ihtimal dahilinde bile olmayan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ter\u00f6r eylemine maruz kald\u0131. Oysa, k\u00fcresel ekonomik sistemin 2008 finans krizinden bu yana toparlanma m\u00fccadelesi verdi\u011fi bir ortamda, ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 makro tedbirlerle 2009 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren yeniden pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f olan T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, 27 \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nem arka arkaya pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmeyi ba\u015farm\u0131\u015f 5 \u00fclke aras\u0131ndayd\u0131. 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 8.5, 2014\u2019de, y\u00fczde 5.2 ve 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda da y\u00fczde 6.1 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ba\u015faran ve y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda yerini korumay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcren T\u00fcrkiye, 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk iki \u00e7eyre\u011finde de y\u00fczde 4.8 ve 4.9 ile bu performans\u0131 korumu\u015ftu. Ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z darbe giri\u015fimi, 27 \u00e7eyrek ard\u0131 ard\u0131na pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme serisini bozdu ve 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finde T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi y\u00fczde 0.8 darald\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7\u0130N VE H\u0130ND\u0130STAN\u2019LA KAFA KAFAYA<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Bununla birlikte h\u00fck\u00fcmetin 2008 k\u00fcresel finans krizinin etkilerini ortadan kald\u0131rmak ad\u0131na att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlara benzer \u015fekilde ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z darbe giri\u015fimi sonras\u0131nda da yine seri ekonomik tedbirler devreye girdi ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2006 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n 4. \u00e7eyre\u011finde, y\u00fczde 4.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile tekrar pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Ancak 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 biterken, gerek IMF, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 ve OECD, gerekse de uluslararas\u0131 derecelendirme ve finans kurulu\u015flar\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterebilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Kimi kurulu\u015flar y\u00fczde 2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda dahi b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini payla\u015ft\u0131lar. T\u00fcrk ekonomi y\u00f6netimi, 2017 y\u0131l\u0131na G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de de bir benzeri olan ve reel sekt\u00f6re, bilhassa KOB\u0130\u2019lere destek olan Kredi Garanti Fonu\u2019nu yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmay\u0131 tamamlayarak girdi. Bilhassa banka kredilerindeki canlanma, in\u015faat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve ihracat hacmindeki s\u0131\u00e7rama ile T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2017 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n 1. ve 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 5.2 ve 5.1\u2019lik GDP b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131 yakalad\u0131. \u00d6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz 3. \u00e7eyrekte GDP b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 7\u2019yi bile bulabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor ki, b\u00f6yle bir performans \u00c7in ve Hindistan ile kafa kafaya bir k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelecek.<\/span><\/p>

G20 \u00dcLKELER\u0130 ARASINDA \u00dc\u00c7\u00dcNC\u00dc<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Nitekim y\u0131l\u0131n 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finde, y\u00fczde 6 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u00c7in ve y\u00fczde 5.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen Hindistan\u2019dan sonra, Endonezya ile birlikte G20 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda 3. en y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 yakalayan \u00fclke T\u00fcrkiye oldu. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ancak y\u00fczde 2.3, ABD\u2019nin y\u00fczde 2.2, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n 2.1, \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin 1.8, Fransa\u2019n\u0131n ise 1.7 olabildi\u011fi k\u00fcresel ekonomik ortamda, T\u00fcrkiye, Slovenya, Estonya ve Romanya\u2019dan sonra en y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ba\u015faran 4. \u00fclke oldu. 2017\u2019nin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi d\u00fcnya ekonomisi genelinde en y\u00fcksek 5. b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yan bu y\u00fczde 5.1\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2.3 puan\u0131 net ihracattan, 1 puan\u0131 Kredi Garanti Fonu\u2019nun piyasada sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 canl\u0131l\u0131ktan, geri kalan\u0131 da in\u015faat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ve t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131ndan geldi. K\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar da, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131na gelen t\u00fcm talihsizliklere ra\u011fmen ekonomideki ba\u015far\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n ve \u2018b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u2019 hikayemizin fark\u0131nda.<\/span><\/p>

ULUSLARARASI SERMAYE G\u0130R\u0130\u015e\u0130 ARTACAK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrk hisse senetlerine ve hazine k\u00e2\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131na ilgi, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f durumda. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak 3. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi de y\u00fczde 7-8 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda geldi\u011finde, y\u0131l\u0131 ciddi bir uluslararas\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi ile tamamlayabiliriz. Enflasyonu yeniden y\u00fczde 6\u2019lara \u00e7ekerek, 2018\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme ba\u015far\u0131m\u0131z\u0131, fiyat istikrar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlarla desteklememiz gerekiyor. Bu nedenle, sonbaharda ekonomi y\u00f6netimi, enflasyonu kontrol ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131racak. Ekonomistlerin 2017 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinin ortalamas\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 4.6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi. 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinde en y\u00fcksek tahmin y\u00fczde 5.7, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tahmin ise y\u00fczde 4. Temmuz ay\u0131nda, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re sanayi \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 14.5 olmas\u0131, \u015fimdiden 3. \u00e7eyrekte de y\u00fczde 7 ile 8 aras\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p>

KURUMLAR TAHM\u0130NLER\u0130N\u0130 Y\u00dcKSELTT\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m bankalar\u0131 JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley ve Nomura da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti. Goldman Sachs ise \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 7\u2019ye ula\u015fabilece\u011fini, ancak son \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini, bu nedenle y\u0131lsonu b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fini bildirdi. JP Morgan, ihracatta devam eden g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ile birlikte sa\u011flanan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme sonras\u0131 2017\u2019nin tamam\u0131 i\u00e7in GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 4.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 5.3\u2019e y\u00fckseltirken, 2018 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 3.1 olarak devam ettirdi. Morgan Stanley, T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin etkisiyle ilk 6 ayda ya\u015fanan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ard\u0131ndan y\u00fczde 3.3\u2019den y\u00fczde 4.3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Nomura ise T\u00fcrk ekonomisi i\u00e7in 2017 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini 3. \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin baz etkisiyle daha da h\u0131zlanaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde y\u00fczde 4.2\u2019den y\u00fczde 5.5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. 2018 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 3 olarak tekrarlayan Nomura, bu tahmin i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin var oldu\u011funun bilincinde olduklar\u0131n\u0131 da vurgulad\u0131. <\/span>
G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki, T\u00fcrkiye \u2018b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u2019 hikayesini 2017-2019 d\u00f6neminde de kararl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"turk-ekonomisi-tahminleri-alt-ust-etti","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"T\u00fcrk ekonomisi tahminleri alt \u00fcst etti","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":88,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":17260,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":17161,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"T\u00fcrk ekonomisi tahminleri alt \u00fcst etti","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

T\u00fcrkiye 15 Temmuz 2016\u2019da FET\u00d6 darbe giri\u015fimi ile 21. y\u00fczy\u0131lda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ihtimal dahilinde bile olmayan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ter\u00f6r eylemine maruz kald\u0131. Oysa, k\u00fcresel ekonomik sistemin 2008 finans krizinden bu yana toparlanma m\u00fccadelesi verdi\u011fi bir ortamda, ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 makro tedbirlerle 2009 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren yeniden pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f olan T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, 27 \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nem arka arkaya pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmeyi ba\u015farm\u0131\u015f 5 \u00fclke aras\u0131ndayd\u0131. 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 8.5, 2014\u2019de, y\u00fczde 5.2 ve 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda da y\u00fczde 6.1 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ba\u015faran ve y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda yerini korumay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcren T\u00fcrkiye, 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk iki \u00e7eyre\u011finde de y\u00fczde 4.8 ve 4.9 ile bu performans\u0131 korumu\u015ftu. Ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z darbe giri\u015fimi, 27 \u00e7eyrek ard\u0131 ard\u0131na pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme serisini bozdu ve 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finde T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi y\u00fczde 0.8 darald\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7\u0130N VE H\u0130ND\u0130STAN\u2019LA KAFA KAFAYA<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Bununla birlikte h\u00fck\u00fcmetin 2008 k\u00fcresel finans krizinin etkilerini ortadan kald\u0131rmak ad\u0131na att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlara benzer \u015fekilde ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z darbe giri\u015fimi sonras\u0131nda da yine seri ekonomik tedbirler devreye girdi ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2006 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n 4. \u00e7eyre\u011finde, y\u00fczde 4.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile tekrar pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Ancak 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 biterken, gerek IMF, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 ve OECD, gerekse de uluslararas\u0131 derecelendirme ve finans kurulu\u015flar\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterebilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Kimi kurulu\u015flar y\u00fczde 2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda dahi b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini payla\u015ft\u0131lar. T\u00fcrk ekonomi y\u00f6netimi, 2017 y\u0131l\u0131na G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de de bir benzeri olan ve reel sekt\u00f6re, bilhassa KOB\u0130\u2019lere destek olan Kredi Garanti Fonu\u2019nu yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmay\u0131 tamamlayarak girdi. Bilhassa banka kredilerindeki canlanma, in\u015faat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve ihracat hacmindeki s\u0131\u00e7rama ile T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2017 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n 1. ve 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 5.2 ve 5.1\u2019lik GDP b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131 yakalad\u0131. \u00d6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz 3. \u00e7eyrekte GDP b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 7\u2019yi bile bulabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor ki, b\u00f6yle bir performans \u00c7in ve Hindistan ile kafa kafaya bir k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelecek.<\/span><\/p>

G20 \u00dcLKELER\u0130 ARASINDA \u00dc\u00c7\u00dcNC\u00dc<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Nitekim y\u0131l\u0131n 2. \u00e7eyre\u011finde, y\u00fczde 6 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u00c7in ve y\u00fczde 5.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen Hindistan\u2019dan sonra, Endonezya ile birlikte G20 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda 3. en y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 yakalayan \u00fclke T\u00fcrkiye oldu. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ancak y\u00fczde 2.3, ABD\u2019nin y\u00fczde 2.2, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n 2.1, \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin 1.8, Fransa\u2019n\u0131n ise 1.7 olabildi\u011fi k\u00fcresel ekonomik ortamda, T\u00fcrkiye, Slovenya, Estonya ve Romanya\u2019dan sonra en y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ba\u015faran 4. \u00fclke oldu. 2017\u2019nin ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi d\u00fcnya ekonomisi genelinde en y\u00fcksek 5. b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yan bu y\u00fczde 5.1\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2.3 puan\u0131 net ihracattan, 1 puan\u0131 Kredi Garanti Fonu\u2019nun piyasada sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 canl\u0131l\u0131ktan, geri kalan\u0131 da in\u015faat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ve t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131ndan geldi. K\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar da, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131na gelen t\u00fcm talihsizliklere ra\u011fmen ekonomideki ba\u015far\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n ve \u2018b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u2019 hikayemizin fark\u0131nda.<\/span><\/p>

ULUSLARARASI SERMAYE G\u0130R\u0130\u015e\u0130 ARTACAK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrk hisse senetlerine ve hazine k\u00e2\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131na ilgi, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f durumda. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak 3. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi de y\u00fczde 7-8 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda geldi\u011finde, y\u0131l\u0131 ciddi bir uluslararas\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi ile tamamlayabiliriz. Enflasyonu yeniden y\u00fczde 6\u2019lara \u00e7ekerek, 2018\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme ba\u015far\u0131m\u0131z\u0131, fiyat istikrar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlarla desteklememiz gerekiyor. Bu nedenle, sonbaharda ekonomi y\u00f6netimi, enflasyonu kontrol ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131racak. Ekonomistlerin 2017 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinin ortalamas\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 4.6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi. 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinde en y\u00fcksek tahmin y\u00fczde 5.7, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tahmin ise y\u00fczde 4. Temmuz ay\u0131nda, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re sanayi \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 14.5 olmas\u0131, \u015fimdiden 3. \u00e7eyrekte de y\u00fczde 7 ile 8 aras\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p>

KURUMLAR TAHM\u0130NLER\u0130N\u0130 Y\u00dcKSELTT\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m bankalar\u0131 JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley ve Nomura da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerini yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti. Goldman Sachs ise \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 7\u2019ye ula\u015fabilece\u011fini, ancak son \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini, bu nedenle y\u0131lsonu b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fini bildirdi. JP Morgan, ihracatta devam eden g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ile birlikte sa\u011flanan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme sonras\u0131 2017\u2019nin tamam\u0131 i\u00e7in GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 4.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 5.3\u2019e y\u00fckseltirken, 2018 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 3.1 olarak devam ettirdi. Morgan Stanley, T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin etkisiyle ilk 6 ayda ya\u015fanan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ard\u0131ndan y\u00fczde 3.3\u2019den y\u00fczde 4.3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Nomura ise T\u00fcrk ekonomisi i\u00e7in 2017 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini 3. \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin baz etkisiyle daha da h\u0131zlanaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde y\u00fczde 4.2\u2019den y\u00fczde 5.5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. 2018 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 3 olarak tekrarlayan Nomura, bu tahmin i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin var oldu\u011funun bilincinde olduklar\u0131n\u0131 da vurgulad\u0131. <\/span>
G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki, T\u00fcrkiye \u2018b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u2019 hikayesini 2017-2019 d\u00f6neminde de kararl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"turk-ekonomisi-tahminleri-alt-ust-etti","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"T\u00fcrk ekonomisi tahminleri alt \u00fcst etti","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":88,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}