{"status":true,"post":{"id":16502,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 10:09:22","created_at":"2017-05-08T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T07:09:22.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":16502,"is_featured":0,"title":"Trump r\u00fczgar\u0131 azald\u0131 geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler rahatlad\u0131","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">ABD\u2019de ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerini Trump\u2019\u0131n kazanmas\u0131 ile birlikte dolar lehine, geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler aleyhine beklenmedik bir r\u00fczgar esmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bunun nedeni Trump ve yeni y\u00f6netimin ABD ekonomisi i\u00e7in olu\u015fturdu\u011fu a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 iyimserlikti. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler \u00fczerinde \u00f6nemli sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi ile kuvvetli bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fmu\u015ftu. Ancak yeni y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 4 ay\u0131 ve ABD\u2019de yeni y\u00f6netimin ilk 100 g\u00fcn\u00fc geride kald\u0131 ve Trump r\u00fczgar\u0131 azalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler de giderek rahatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>1 - TRUMP NASIL VE NEDEN R\u00dcZGAR EST\u0130RM\u0130\u015eT\u0130 <\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Trump\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesi halinde ABD dolar\u0131 ve ABD ekonomisi i\u00e7in se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi senaryolar olduk\u00e7a olumsuzdu. Ancak Trump\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesi ile birlikte k\u00fcresel mali piyasalar beklenti senaryolar\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a aksine hareket ettiler. Trump ile birlikte vergi indirimleri, kamu alt yap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, sanayi te\u015fvikleri taahh\u00fctlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak daha y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme, daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed i\u00e7in daha \u00e7ok faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi olu\u015ftu. Dolar rekor seviyede g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerden sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ile para birimlerinde de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131. Ancak Trump ilk 100 g\u00fcnde taahh\u00fctlerinde \u00f6nemli s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131 ve yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 r\u00fczgar da azalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>2 - TRUMP Y\u00d6NET\u0130M\u0130 EKONOM\u0130DE BEKLENEN ADIMLARI HEN\u00dcZ ATAMADI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Trump y\u00f6netiminin ilk 100 g\u00fcn\u00fc geride kald\u0131. Ancak ekonomide di\u015fe dokunur bir reform veya eylem hayata ge\u00e7irilemedi. \u00d6ncelikle Obama\u2019n\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131k sigortas\u0131 reformuna son verilmesi hedefleniyordu. Ancak Trump kendi partisi i\u00e7inden de muhalefet ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131 ve sa\u011fl\u0131k sigortas\u0131 uygulamas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131ramad\u0131. Trump vergilerde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir indirim vaat etmi\u015fti. Ancak ilk 100 g\u00fcn\u00fcn sonunda ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir vergi plan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanmad\u0131. Alt yap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in 1 trilyon dolar harcama yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Ancak bununla da ilgili olarak bir plan ve uygulama hen\u00fcz yok. Bunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ABD i\u00e7in daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme, daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve daha \u00e7ok faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentileri de zay\u0131flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>3 - FED FA\u0130Z ARTI\u015eLARI DAHA SINIRLI KALAB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Trump r\u00fczgar\u0131 ile birlikte ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed\u2019den 2017\u2019de en az 3 veya 4 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleniyordu. Nitekim Fed martta y\u0131l\u0131n ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131 ve faizleri y\u00fczde 0.75-1.00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltti. Mart ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed \u00fcyeleri enflasyon ve faiz beklentilerini de y\u00fckseltmi\u015fti. Ancak Trump uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n gecikmesi ile birlikte b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri Fed beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda kalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Fed\u2019in 2017\u2019de 2 veya en fazla 3 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapabilece\u011fi beklentisi olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu beklenti dolarda gev\u015femeye yol a\u00e7arken, geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 da hafifletiyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>4 - GEL\u0130\u015eEN \u00dcLKELER RAHATLIYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler yeni y\u0131la sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve para birimlerinde de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 ile ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak Trump r\u00fczgar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 ve beklentilerin farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 ile birlikte geli\u015fen \u00fclkelere yeniden sermaye giri\u015fleri ba\u015flad\u0131. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin para birimleri de daha istikrarl\u0131 hale geliyor. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 bu \u00fclkelerdeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme dinamiklerini de olumlu etkileyecek. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2017\u2019de y\u00fczde 4.5\u2019e kadar y\u00fckselece\u011fi bekleniyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>5 - T\u00dcRK\u0130YE \u0130\u00c7\u0130N DE K\u00dcRESEL MAL\u0130 KO\u015eULLAR DAHA OLUMLU<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Trump r\u00fczgar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in de daha uygun k\u00fcresel mali ko\u015fullar olu\u015fturuyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye de sermaye giri\u015fleri ya\u015fan\u0131yor. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019nda g\u00f6receli bir de\u011ferlenme ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Referandum sonras\u0131 mevcut siyasi, d\u0131\u015f politik ve jeopolitik riskler g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda k\u00fcresel mali ko\u015fullar T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in en az\u0131ndan d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan kaynaklanabilecek ekonomik riskleri azalt\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> K\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar daha uygun. \u0130\u00e7eride normalle\u015fmeyi sa\u011flarsak ve ekonomide reformlara h\u0131z verirsek kal\u0131c\u0131 toparlanmaya ula\u015fabiliriz.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"trump-ruzgari-azaldi-gelisen-ulkeler-rahatladi","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Trump r\u00fczgar\u0131 azald\u0131 geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler rahatlad\u0131","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":84,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":16601,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":16502,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Trump r\u00fczgar\u0131 azald\u0131 geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler rahatlad\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">ABD\u2019de ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerini Trump\u2019\u0131n kazanmas\u0131 ile birlikte dolar lehine, geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler aleyhine beklenmedik bir r\u00fczgar esmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bunun nedeni Trump ve yeni y\u00f6netimin ABD ekonomisi i\u00e7in olu\u015fturdu\u011fu a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 iyimserlikti. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler \u00fczerinde \u00f6nemli sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi ile kuvvetli bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fmu\u015ftu. Ancak yeni y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 4 ay\u0131 ve ABD\u2019de yeni y\u00f6netimin ilk 100 g\u00fcn\u00fc geride kald\u0131 ve Trump r\u00fczgar\u0131 azalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler de giderek rahatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>1 - TRUMP NASIL VE NEDEN R\u00dcZGAR EST\u0130RM\u0130\u015eT\u0130 <\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Trump\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesi halinde ABD dolar\u0131 ve ABD ekonomisi i\u00e7in se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi senaryolar olduk\u00e7a olumsuzdu. Ancak Trump\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesi ile birlikte k\u00fcresel mali piyasalar beklenti senaryolar\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a aksine hareket ettiler. Trump ile birlikte vergi indirimleri, kamu alt yap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, sanayi te\u015fvikleri taahh\u00fctlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak daha y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme, daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed i\u00e7in daha \u00e7ok faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi olu\u015ftu. Dolar rekor seviyede g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerden sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ile para birimlerinde de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131. Ancak Trump ilk 100 g\u00fcnde taahh\u00fctlerinde \u00f6nemli s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131 ve yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 r\u00fczgar da azalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>2 - TRUMP Y\u00d6NET\u0130M\u0130 EKONOM\u0130DE BEKLENEN ADIMLARI HEN\u00dcZ ATAMADI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Trump y\u00f6netiminin ilk 100 g\u00fcn\u00fc geride kald\u0131. Ancak ekonomide di\u015fe dokunur bir reform veya eylem hayata ge\u00e7irilemedi. \u00d6ncelikle Obama\u2019n\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131k sigortas\u0131 reformuna son verilmesi hedefleniyordu. Ancak Trump kendi partisi i\u00e7inden de muhalefet ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131 ve sa\u011fl\u0131k sigortas\u0131 uygulamas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131ramad\u0131. Trump vergilerde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir indirim vaat etmi\u015fti. Ancak ilk 100 g\u00fcn\u00fcn sonunda ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir vergi plan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanmad\u0131. Alt yap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in 1 trilyon dolar harcama yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Ancak bununla da ilgili olarak bir plan ve uygulama hen\u00fcz yok. Bunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ABD i\u00e7in daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme, daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve daha \u00e7ok faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentileri de zay\u0131flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>3 - FED FA\u0130Z ARTI\u015eLARI DAHA SINIRLI KALAB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Trump r\u00fczgar\u0131 ile birlikte ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed\u2019den 2017\u2019de en az 3 veya 4 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleniyordu. Nitekim Fed martta y\u0131l\u0131n ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131 ve faizleri y\u00fczde 0.75-1.00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltti. Mart ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed \u00fcyeleri enflasyon ve faiz beklentilerini de y\u00fckseltmi\u015fti. Ancak Trump uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n gecikmesi ile birlikte b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri Fed beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda kalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Fed\u2019in 2017\u2019de 2 veya en fazla 3 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapabilece\u011fi beklentisi olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu beklenti dolarda gev\u015femeye yol a\u00e7arken, geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 da hafifletiyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>4 - GEL\u0130\u015eEN \u00dcLKELER RAHATLIYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler yeni y\u0131la sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve para birimlerinde de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 ile ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak Trump r\u00fczgar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 ve beklentilerin farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 ile birlikte geli\u015fen \u00fclkelere yeniden sermaye giri\u015fleri ba\u015flad\u0131. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin para birimleri de daha istikrarl\u0131 hale geliyor. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 bu \u00fclkelerdeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme dinamiklerini de olumlu etkileyecek. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2017\u2019de y\u00fczde 4.5\u2019e kadar y\u00fckselece\u011fi bekleniyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>5 - T\u00dcRK\u0130YE \u0130\u00c7\u0130N DE K\u00dcRESEL MAL\u0130 KO\u015eULLAR DAHA OLUMLU<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Trump r\u00fczgar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in de daha uygun k\u00fcresel mali ko\u015fullar olu\u015fturuyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye de sermaye giri\u015fleri ya\u015fan\u0131yor. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019nda g\u00f6receli bir de\u011ferlenme ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Referandum sonras\u0131 mevcut siyasi, d\u0131\u015f politik ve jeopolitik riskler g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda k\u00fcresel mali ko\u015fullar T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in en az\u0131ndan d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan kaynaklanabilecek ekonomik riskleri azalt\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> K\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar daha uygun. \u0130\u00e7eride normalle\u015fmeyi sa\u011flarsak ve ekonomide reformlara h\u0131z verirsek kal\u0131c\u0131 toparlanmaya ula\u015fabiliriz.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"trump-ruzgari-azaldi-gelisen-ulkeler-rahatladi","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Trump r\u00fczgar\u0131 azald\u0131 geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler rahatlad\u0131","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":84,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}