{"status":true,"post":{"id":58573,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-12-09 07:51:00","created_at":"2024-12-09T04:51:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-09T04:51:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":58573,"is_featured":0,"title":"Ticari entegrasyonun ve dolar\u0131n gelece\u011fi","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","content":"

<\/span>D\u00fcnya ekonomisi so\u011fuk sava\u015f d\u00f6neminin son ve zorlu etab\u0131ndan bu yana, Vietnam Sava\u015f\u0131 ve arkas\u0131ndan gelen petrol krizleri ve finansal \u00e7alkant\u0131lardan bu yana en zorlu d\u00f6nemini ya\u015f\u0131yor. ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fcresel rezerv para yapan Bretton Woods Anla\u015fmas\u0131, 1970\u2019lerin ba\u015flar\u0131nda da\u011f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olsa da d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen ekonomilerinin \u00fczerinde mutab\u0131k kald\u0131klar\u0131 \u2018centilmenlik anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019, dolar\u0131n ve dolara endeksli uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6deme sisteminin asla bir \u2018silah\u2019 olarak kullan\u0131lmayacak olmas\u0131yd\u0131. 2000\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131na kadar s\u00fcre\u00e7 bu \u015fekilde ilerledi. Ancak, 21. y\u00fczy\u0131la girilmesiyle birlikte daha \u00f6zenli, uluslararas\u0131 team\u00fcllere daha sayg\u0131l\u0131 bir ABD y\u00f6netim anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan, daha \u00f6zensiz, uluslararas\u0131 team\u00fcllere giderek daha duyars\u0131z, \u2018vah\u015fi bat\u0131\u2019 kurallar\u0131na daha s\u0131k ba\u015fvuran bir ABD anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015f, dolar\u0131n ve dolar cinsinden uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6demeler sisteminin de bir silaha d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesine sebep oldu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

STRATEJ\u0130K OTONOM\u0130\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

E7 \u00fclkelerinin t\u00fcm\u00fc, son 10 y\u0131lda \u2018dolar\u2019 bazl\u0131 artan tehditten ve \u2018ya benimsin ya da kara topra\u011f\u0131n\u2019 tarz\u0131 f\u00fctursuz yakla\u015f\u0131mdan y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde rahats\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, yeni nesil uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6deme sistemi aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131. Kimi \u00e7evrelerce ciddiyle al\u0131nm\u0131yor izlenimi verilse de E7 \u00fclkelerinin kendi para birimleriyle aralar\u0131ndaki ticareti katlamalar\u0131 da g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. \u00d6nde gelen 40 ekonominin t\u00fcm\u00fc, 3. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 tehditlerinin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, \u2018stratejik otonomi\u2019ye a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermeleri gerekti\u011finin fark\u0131nda. Ancak, tar\u0131m-g\u0131da, enerji, kritik mineraller, dijital teknolojiler ve savunma gibi stratejik alanlarda \u2018kendine yetebilen\u2019 ekonomi olmak, bug\u00fcnden yar\u0131na hemen \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclebilecek konular de\u011fil. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde, bir yandan E7 ekonomileri kendi aralar\u0131ndaki ticari entegrasyonu geli\u015ftirme aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek, bir yandan da bilhassa Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin Afrika ve Latin Amerika ile ticari entegrasyon aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rma gayretlerine \u015fahit olaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u00dcKSEK \u0130THALAT DUVARLARI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Peki, \u00fclke ekonomisinde sekt\u00f6rleri y\u00fcksek ithalat duvarlar\u0131 ile korumak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc? Y\u00fcksek ithalat duvarlar\u0131, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelmi\u015f olan o \u00fclke k\u00f6kenli firmalar\u0131n, \u015firketlerin yeniden \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkeye geri d\u00f6nmesini tetikler mi? Ya\u015fanan t\u00fcm zorluklara ra\u011fmen k\u00fcresel ticari entegrasyonun bug\u00fcn ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye, bu sorular\u0131n cevab\u0131n\u0131n \u2018hay\u0131r\u2019 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00fclkenin yerli \u00fcreticileri her ne kadar yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan ithal edilen \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle ayn\u0131 \u00f6zelliklere sahip \u00fcr\u00fcn \u00fcrettiklerini ifade etseler de g\u00fcn\u00fcn sonunda pek \u00e7ok ithal edilen \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7e\u015fitli nedenlerle \u00fclke i\u00e7erisinde muadilinin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, yurt i\u00e7inde yerli \u00fcreticiyi korumak ad\u0131na uygulanan y\u00fcksek ithalat vergisi, g\u00fcn\u00fcn sonunda ekonomiye y\u00fcksek enflasyon olarak da d\u00f6n\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

20 Ocak\u2019ta g\u00f6revi devralacak olan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n haftalard\u0131r yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, \u015fimdiden ABD ekonomisinde y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve t\u00fcketicinin sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc zorlayacak geli\u015fmeler olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. K\u00fcresel ticari entegrasyonun bu derece derinle\u015fti\u011fi bir d\u00fcnyada, 2000 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin k\u00fcresel imalat sanayinde pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 25 iken, \u00c7in\u2019in pay\u0131 sadece y\u00fczde 6 idi. 2030 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise \u00c7in\u2019in imalat sanayinde pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 45\u2019e ula\u015f\u0131rken, ABD\u2019nin pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 11\u2019e gerileyecek. Bu nedenle, E7 ekonomilerini \u2018dolar\u2019la, \u2018dolar bazl\u0131 \u00f6deme sistemleri\u2019 ile tehdit etmek, k\u00fcresel imalat sanayinde E7 \u00fclkelerinin artan ve artacak a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 durdurmaya do\u011fal olarak yetmeyecektir.<\/span><\/p>

keremalkin@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>","slug":"ticari-entegrasyonun-ve-dolarin-gelecegi","tags":null,"meta_title":"Ticari entegrasyonun ve dolar\u0131n gelece\u011fi","meta_description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1733691600g8lgaddZXMkCb8P.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":0,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":58699,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":58573,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Ticari entegrasyonun ve dolar\u0131n gelece\u011fi","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","content":"

<\/span>D\u00fcnya ekonomisi so\u011fuk sava\u015f d\u00f6neminin son ve zorlu etab\u0131ndan bu yana, Vietnam Sava\u015f\u0131 ve arkas\u0131ndan gelen petrol krizleri ve finansal \u00e7alkant\u0131lardan bu yana en zorlu d\u00f6nemini ya\u015f\u0131yor. ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fcresel rezerv para yapan Bretton Woods Anla\u015fmas\u0131, 1970\u2019lerin ba\u015flar\u0131nda da\u011f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olsa da d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen ekonomilerinin \u00fczerinde mutab\u0131k kald\u0131klar\u0131 \u2018centilmenlik anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019, dolar\u0131n ve dolara endeksli uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6deme sisteminin asla bir \u2018silah\u2019 olarak kullan\u0131lmayacak olmas\u0131yd\u0131. 2000\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131na kadar s\u00fcre\u00e7 bu \u015fekilde ilerledi. Ancak, 21. y\u00fczy\u0131la girilmesiyle birlikte daha \u00f6zenli, uluslararas\u0131 team\u00fcllere daha sayg\u0131l\u0131 bir ABD y\u00f6netim anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan, daha \u00f6zensiz, uluslararas\u0131 team\u00fcllere giderek daha duyars\u0131z, \u2018vah\u015fi bat\u0131\u2019 kurallar\u0131na daha s\u0131k ba\u015fvuran bir ABD anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015f, dolar\u0131n ve dolar cinsinden uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6demeler sisteminin de bir silaha d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesine sebep oldu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

STRATEJ\u0130K OTONOM\u0130\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

E7 \u00fclkelerinin t\u00fcm\u00fc, son 10 y\u0131lda \u2018dolar\u2019 bazl\u0131 artan tehditten ve \u2018ya benimsin ya da kara topra\u011f\u0131n\u2019 tarz\u0131 f\u00fctursuz yakla\u015f\u0131mdan y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde rahats\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, yeni nesil uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6deme sistemi aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131. Kimi \u00e7evrelerce ciddiyle al\u0131nm\u0131yor izlenimi verilse de E7 \u00fclkelerinin kendi para birimleriyle aralar\u0131ndaki ticareti katlamalar\u0131 da g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. \u00d6nde gelen 40 ekonominin t\u00fcm\u00fc, 3. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 tehditlerinin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, \u2018stratejik otonomi\u2019ye a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermeleri gerekti\u011finin fark\u0131nda. Ancak, tar\u0131m-g\u0131da, enerji, kritik mineraller, dijital teknolojiler ve savunma gibi stratejik alanlarda \u2018kendine yetebilen\u2019 ekonomi olmak, bug\u00fcnden yar\u0131na hemen \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclebilecek konular de\u011fil. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde, bir yandan E7 ekonomileri kendi aralar\u0131ndaki ticari entegrasyonu geli\u015ftirme aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek, bir yandan da bilhassa Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin Afrika ve Latin Amerika ile ticari entegrasyon aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rma gayretlerine \u015fahit olaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u00dcKSEK \u0130THALAT DUVARLARI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Peki, \u00fclke ekonomisinde sekt\u00f6rleri y\u00fcksek ithalat duvarlar\u0131 ile korumak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc? Y\u00fcksek ithalat duvarlar\u0131, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelmi\u015f olan o \u00fclke k\u00f6kenli firmalar\u0131n, \u015firketlerin yeniden \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkeye geri d\u00f6nmesini tetikler mi? Ya\u015fanan t\u00fcm zorluklara ra\u011fmen k\u00fcresel ticari entegrasyonun bug\u00fcn ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye, bu sorular\u0131n cevab\u0131n\u0131n \u2018hay\u0131r\u2019 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00fclkenin yerli \u00fcreticileri her ne kadar yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan ithal edilen \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle ayn\u0131 \u00f6zelliklere sahip \u00fcr\u00fcn \u00fcrettiklerini ifade etseler de g\u00fcn\u00fcn sonunda pek \u00e7ok ithal edilen \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7e\u015fitli nedenlerle \u00fclke i\u00e7erisinde muadilinin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, yurt i\u00e7inde yerli \u00fcreticiyi korumak ad\u0131na uygulanan y\u00fcksek ithalat vergisi, g\u00fcn\u00fcn sonunda ekonomiye y\u00fcksek enflasyon olarak da d\u00f6n\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

20 Ocak\u2019ta g\u00f6revi devralacak olan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n haftalard\u0131r yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, \u015fimdiden ABD ekonomisinde y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve t\u00fcketicinin sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc zorlayacak geli\u015fmeler olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. K\u00fcresel ticari entegrasyonun bu derece derinle\u015fti\u011fi bir d\u00fcnyada, 2000 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin k\u00fcresel imalat sanayinde pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 25 iken, \u00c7in\u2019in pay\u0131 sadece y\u00fczde 6 idi. 2030 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise \u00c7in\u2019in imalat sanayinde pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 45\u2019e ula\u015f\u0131rken, ABD\u2019nin pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 11\u2019e gerileyecek. Bu nedenle, E7 ekonomilerini \u2018dolar\u2019la, \u2018dolar bazl\u0131 \u00f6deme sistemleri\u2019 ile tehdit etmek, k\u00fcresel imalat sanayinde E7 \u00fclkelerinin artan ve artacak a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 durdurmaya do\u011fal olarak yetmeyecektir.<\/span><\/p>

keremalkin@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>","slug":"ticari-entegrasyonun-ve-dolarin-gelecegi","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1733691600g8lgaddZXMkCb8P.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1733691600g8lgaddZXMkCb8P.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":"Ticari entegrasyonun ve dolar\u0131n gelece\u011fi","meta_description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","meta_keywords":null,"view_count":0,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2025-01-08 06:59:52","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}