{"status":true,"post":{"id":49860,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-03-18 08:35:00","created_at":"2024-03-18T05:35:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-03-18T05:35:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":49860,"is_featured":0,"title":"Ticaretin nabz\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en yeni bir endeks","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":"

nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130ktisat; bireylerin, \u015firketlerin ve politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n karar alma s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini inceleyen bir sosyal bilimdir. \u0130ktisadi kararlar\u0131 incelerken en \u00e7ok ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan unsurlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda veri geliyor. \u00d6zellikle de iktisadi aktiviteyi en ince detaylar\u0131na kadar takip edebilmek i\u00e7in. Bu ama\u00e7 do\u011frultusunda en yayg\u0131n ve en uzun s\u00fcredir kullan\u0131lan veri, gayrisafi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131lad\u0131r (GSYH). Ancak, GSYH verisi \u00e7eyreklik bazda a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in iktisadi aktivitenin en g\u00fcncel halini buradan takip etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmuyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n iktisadi e\u011filimleri yak\u0131ndan takip edip, ona g\u00f6re uygun aksiyonlar\u0131 alabilmeleri i\u00e7in g\u00f6zlem aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha s\u0131k ve detayl\u0131 verilere ihtiya\u00e7 duyuluyor. Bu gereksinimi \u00f6zellikle koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6neminde ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde hissettik. Son 10 y\u0131lda iktisadi aktiviteyi ayl\u0131k bazda \u00f6l\u00e7meye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan yeni endeksler hayat\u0131m\u0131za girdi. \u0130SO \u0130malat PMI, M\u00dcS\u0130AD SAMEKS, T\u00dc\u0130K Perakende Sat\u0131\u015f Endeksleri bunlardan baz\u0131lar\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

T\u0130CARET HAC\u0130M ENDEKS\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu yeni g\u00f6stergeler ekonominin nabz\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mek ve daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 iktisadi kararlar almak i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a faydal\u0131. Ama bu ayl\u0131k verilerin de iktisadi aktivitede kapsamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 alanlar var. Bu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kapatma yolunda T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019ten yeni bir ad\u0131m geldi. Ticaret Hacim Endeksi a\u00e7\u0131klanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu endeks, ticaret sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde faaliyet g\u00f6steren \u00e7e\u015fitli t\u00fcr ve \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki \u015firketlerin ayl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f hacimlerini \u00f6l\u00e7meyi ama\u00e7l\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Endeksin ge\u00e7mi\u015f de\u011ferlerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ticaret sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n Ocak 2023\u2019te olduk\u00e7a canl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son iki y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi y\u00fczde 31.8\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla Ocak 2023\u2019te ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f. Daha sonra sat\u0131\u015f hacminde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yava\u015flama ya\u015fansa da Temmuz 2023\u2019te yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f kaydedilmi\u015f. Bu iki ayda ya\u015fanan y\u00fckseli\u015fin yeni asgari \u00fccret seviyelerinin belirlendi\u011fi veya devreye girdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlere denk gelmesi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil. Y\u00fcksek enflasyon ortam\u0131nda \u00fccretli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan kesim, sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc erimeden \u00fcr\u00fcn taleplerini \u00f6ne \u00e7ekme e\u011filimindedir. Bu iki ayda ya\u015fanan y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015flar bununla ilintili olabilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

6 AYLIK TREND A\u015eA\u011eI Y\u00d6NL\u00dc<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ticaret Hacim Endeksi\u2019nin son alt\u0131 ayl\u0131k trendi ise a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc. Hatta endeksin Ocak 2024 de\u011feri hem ayl\u0131k hem de y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda negatif geldi. Bu e\u011filim, ticaret sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde bir daralmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Asgari \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 2023\u2019tekine benzer bir etki olu\u015fturmamas\u0131 dikkate de\u011fer bir geli\u015fme.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiyi so\u011futucu y\u00f6ndeki etkilerine dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 bu endeksten g\u00f6rebiliyoruz. Otomotiv yak\u0131t\u0131 ve tekstil, giyim ve ayakkab\u0131, bu daralmay\u0131 en net deneyimleyen iki ticaret alan\u0131 olarak dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Endekse dair veriler birikip yeterli zaman serisi olu\u015ftuk\u00e7a ticaret hacmini etkileyen unsurlara y\u00f6nelik daha nitelikli ve bilimsel yorumlar yapabiliriz. Bu g\u00f6sterge sayesinde ticaretin nabz\u0131n\u0131 daha yak\u0131ndan takip etme f\u0131rsat\u0131m\u0131z olacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"ticaretin-nabzini-olcen-yeni-bir-endeks","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1710709200QX6PacU373DDG6O.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":4221,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":49986,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":49860,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Ticaretin nabz\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en yeni bir endeks","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":"

nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130ktisat; bireylerin, \u015firketlerin ve politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n karar alma s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini inceleyen bir sosyal bilimdir. \u0130ktisadi kararlar\u0131 incelerken en \u00e7ok ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan unsurlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda veri geliyor. \u00d6zellikle de iktisadi aktiviteyi en ince detaylar\u0131na kadar takip edebilmek i\u00e7in. Bu ama\u00e7 do\u011frultusunda en yayg\u0131n ve en uzun s\u00fcredir kullan\u0131lan veri, gayrisafi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131lad\u0131r (GSYH). Ancak, GSYH verisi \u00e7eyreklik bazda a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in iktisadi aktivitenin en g\u00fcncel halini buradan takip etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmuyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n iktisadi e\u011filimleri yak\u0131ndan takip edip, ona g\u00f6re uygun aksiyonlar\u0131 alabilmeleri i\u00e7in g\u00f6zlem aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha s\u0131k ve detayl\u0131 verilere ihtiya\u00e7 duyuluyor. Bu gereksinimi \u00f6zellikle koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6neminde ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde hissettik. Son 10 y\u0131lda iktisadi aktiviteyi ayl\u0131k bazda \u00f6l\u00e7meye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan yeni endeksler hayat\u0131m\u0131za girdi. \u0130SO \u0130malat PMI, M\u00dcS\u0130AD SAMEKS, T\u00dc\u0130K Perakende Sat\u0131\u015f Endeksleri bunlardan baz\u0131lar\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

T\u0130CARET HAC\u0130M ENDEKS\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu yeni g\u00f6stergeler ekonominin nabz\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mek ve daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 iktisadi kararlar almak i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a faydal\u0131. Ama bu ayl\u0131k verilerin de iktisadi aktivitede kapsamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 alanlar var. Bu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kapatma yolunda T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019ten yeni bir ad\u0131m geldi. Ticaret Hacim Endeksi a\u00e7\u0131klanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu endeks, ticaret sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde faaliyet g\u00f6steren \u00e7e\u015fitli t\u00fcr ve \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki \u015firketlerin ayl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f hacimlerini \u00f6l\u00e7meyi ama\u00e7l\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Endeksin ge\u00e7mi\u015f de\u011ferlerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ticaret sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n Ocak 2023\u2019te olduk\u00e7a canl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son iki y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi y\u00fczde 31.8\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla Ocak 2023\u2019te ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f. Daha sonra sat\u0131\u015f hacminde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yava\u015flama ya\u015fansa da Temmuz 2023\u2019te yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f kaydedilmi\u015f. Bu iki ayda ya\u015fanan y\u00fckseli\u015fin yeni asgari \u00fccret seviyelerinin belirlendi\u011fi veya devreye girdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlere denk gelmesi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil. Y\u00fcksek enflasyon ortam\u0131nda \u00fccretli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan kesim, sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc erimeden \u00fcr\u00fcn taleplerini \u00f6ne \u00e7ekme e\u011filimindedir. Bu iki ayda ya\u015fanan y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015flar bununla ilintili olabilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

6 AYLIK TREND A\u015eA\u011eI Y\u00d6NL\u00dc<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ticaret Hacim Endeksi\u2019nin son alt\u0131 ayl\u0131k trendi ise a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc. Hatta endeksin Ocak 2024 de\u011feri hem ayl\u0131k hem de y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda negatif geldi. Bu e\u011filim, ticaret sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde bir daralmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Asgari \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 2023\u2019tekine benzer bir etki olu\u015fturmamas\u0131 dikkate de\u011fer bir geli\u015fme.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiyi so\u011futucu y\u00f6ndeki etkilerine dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 bu endeksten g\u00f6rebiliyoruz. Otomotiv yak\u0131t\u0131 ve tekstil, giyim ve ayakkab\u0131, bu daralmay\u0131 en net deneyimleyen iki ticaret alan\u0131 olarak dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Endekse dair veriler birikip yeterli zaman serisi olu\u015ftuk\u00e7a ticaret hacmini etkileyen unsurlara y\u00f6nelik daha nitelikli ve bilimsel yorumlar yapabiliriz. Bu g\u00f6sterge sayesinde ticaretin nabz\u0131n\u0131 daha yak\u0131ndan takip etme f\u0131rsat\u0131m\u0131z olacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"ticaretin-nabzini-olcen-yeni-bir-endeks","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1710709200QX6PacU373DDG6O.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1710709200QX6PacU373DDG6O.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":4221,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}