{"status":true,"post":{"id":16139,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 10:04:30","created_at":"2017-03-20T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T07:04:30.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":16139,"is_featured":0,"title":"TCMB\u2019den \u2018proaktif\u2019 ad\u0131mlara devam","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">\u00d6nceki yaz\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131zda, TCMB\u2019nin \u015fu anki ko\u015fullara g\u00f6re \u2018y\u00fckl\u00fc\u2019 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 karar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ad\u0131m atmas\u0131n\u0131n, orta vadede b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkileyebilece\u011fini; bu nedenle, TCMB a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, TL\u2019nin reel de\u011ferini y\u00f6netmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek proaktif ad\u0131mlar\u0131 2 ay daha devam ettirmenin daha do\u011fru bir taktik olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015ftim.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu, temel para politikas\u0131 ve faiz koridoru \u00fcst ve alt band\u0131na dokunmayarak, ge\u00e7 likidite penceresi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde uygulanan gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 0.75 puan art\u0131rarak, ocak ay\u0131nda ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 proaktif ad\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc teyit etti ve bu ad\u0131m\u0131n piyasalarda olumlu etkisi hemen g\u00f6zlendi. TCMB \u00fcst y\u00f6netimi, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisindeki iktisadi faaliyetteki kademeli toparlanmay\u0131 olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkileyemeyecek bir titiz \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ortaya koyuyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">TCMB, i\u00e7 talepteki seyrin halen zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ihracat hacmindeki iyile\u015fmenin devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret etmi\u015f. Bilhassa, AB\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik ihracattaki toparlanman\u0131n olumlu etkisi not al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f. Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu \u00fcyeleri, yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131n h\u0131zla uygulamaya ge\u00e7irilmesinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyelini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na da i\u015faret etmi\u015f. 16 Nisan referandumundan \u00e7\u0131kacak \u2018evet\u2019 ile reformlara odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131, 3 ay i\u00e7erisinde, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve istihdamda olumlu bir s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda ciddi bir hareketlenmeyi de beraberinde getirecek. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin i\u015fsizlik verilerini analiz ederken, sadece 2016\u2019da 900 bin ki\u015fiye yak\u0131n i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131, Avrupa\u2019daki i\u015fsizlik verileri ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin i\u015fsizlik verilerini kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n haks\u0131zl\u0131k olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bize hat\u0131rlatmal\u0131. Bu nedenle, artan i\u015fsizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yeni istihdam \u00fcretme kapasitesi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>ENFLASYON YAZ BA\u015eINDA GEV\u015eEYECEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 2-3 ay, enflasyonun y\u00fcksek seyretmeye devam edece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bununla birlikte, haziran ve bilhassa temmuz ay\u0131nda, TCMB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 tedbirleri ve referandumdan \u2018evet\u2019 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ile dolar kurunda 3.30 TL band\u0131na kadar g\u00f6zlenecek gev\u015feme, en ge\u00e7 yaz ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren fiyatlarda normalle\u015fme sa\u011flayacak. Nitekim, TCMB\u2019nin, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyon normalle\u015fene kadar, kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 net bir \u015fekilde vurgulamas\u0131 piyasalarca desteklendi. 2 ay sonra, bamba\u015fka ve olumlu bir piyasay\u0131 konu\u015fuyor olaca\u011f\u0131z. D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki normalle\u015fme ve 2019\u2019a kadar yeni bir se\u00e7im olmamas\u0131 ile birlikte, bilhassa \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki canlanma piyasalar\u0131 hareketlendirecek. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Moralimizi y\u00fcksek tutal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>FED BEKLENEN ADIMI ATTI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">K\u00fcresel piyasalar iki haftad\u0131r, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz \u00e7ar\u015famba Fed\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 faiz karar\u0131yla yat\u0131p kalk\u0131yorlard\u0131. Fed\u2019den faiz art\u0131\u015f karar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131na dair beklenti doruktayd\u0131 ve esas, 2017\u2019de ka\u00e7 kez faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 merak konusuydu. Fed A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi\u2019nin (FOMC) para politikas\u0131 faizini y\u00fczde 0.75-1.00 band\u0131na \u00e7ekme karar\u0131 beklentinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi oldu. Bununla birlikte, FOMC \u00fcyelerinin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri ve karar sonras\u0131nda Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Janet Yellen\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, k\u00fcresel finans piyasas\u0131 profesyonelleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, Fed\u2019in 2017 sonuna kadar en fazla iki faiz art\u0131\u015f karar\u0131 daha alabilece\u011fi \u015feklinde yorumland\u0131 ve bu y\u0131l en az d\u00f6rt faiz art\u0131\u015f karar\u0131 opsiyonu \u015fu an i\u00e7in masadan kalkm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Bu geli\u015fme, ba\u015fta Euro, \u00f6nde gelen geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan para birimlerinin ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlerinin toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. Fed yetkililerinin, Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n hen\u00fcz netle\u015fmemesi nedeniyle temkinli davrand\u0131klar\u0131 da g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Trump\u2019\u0131n politika tercihleri, altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 hamlesi, ABD ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan enflasyon riskini art\u0131rabilecek geli\u015fmeler. Bu nedenle, piyasa profesyonelleri, artan enflasyon riskine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Fed\u2019den 2017 i\u00e7in en az d\u00f6rt faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ad\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik mesaj bekliyorlard\u0131. Verilen mesaj, t\u00fcm 2017 i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 karar\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edince, 101.70 puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan Dolar Endeksi, 100.70 puan\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledi. Bir ba\u015fka a\u00e7\u0131dan, son k\u00fcresel finans krizi ile birlikte, ekonomi tarihinde ilk kez, bu derece y\u00fcksek ihracat yapmaya odaklanm\u0131\u015f olan ABD ekonomisinin, Fed\u2019in seri faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kararlar\u0131 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fer kazanacak dolar nedeniyle, ihracat performans\u0131nda bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ya\u015famaktan ho\u015flanmayaca\u011f\u0131 ifade edilebilir. Bu nedenle, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik seri ad\u0131mlar atmas\u0131 ve bu nedenle dolar\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131, ileride Trump Y\u00f6netimi ile Fed aras\u0131nda kritik tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 da alevlendirebilir g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"tcmbden-proaktif-adimlara-devam","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"TCMB\u2019den \u2018proaktif\u2019 ad\u0131mlara devam","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":106,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":16238,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":16139,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"TCMB\u2019den \u2018proaktif\u2019 ad\u0131mlara devam","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">\u00d6nceki yaz\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131zda, TCMB\u2019nin \u015fu anki ko\u015fullara g\u00f6re \u2018y\u00fckl\u00fc\u2019 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 karar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ad\u0131m atmas\u0131n\u0131n, orta vadede b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkileyebilece\u011fini; bu nedenle, TCMB a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, TL\u2019nin reel de\u011ferini y\u00f6netmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek proaktif ad\u0131mlar\u0131 2 ay daha devam ettirmenin daha do\u011fru bir taktik olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015ftim.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu, temel para politikas\u0131 ve faiz koridoru \u00fcst ve alt band\u0131na dokunmayarak, ge\u00e7 likidite penceresi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde uygulanan gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 0.75 puan art\u0131rarak, ocak ay\u0131nda ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 proaktif ad\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc teyit etti ve bu ad\u0131m\u0131n piyasalarda olumlu etkisi hemen g\u00f6zlendi. TCMB \u00fcst y\u00f6netimi, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisindeki iktisadi faaliyetteki kademeli toparlanmay\u0131 olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkileyemeyecek bir titiz \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ortaya koyuyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">TCMB, i\u00e7 talepteki seyrin halen zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ihracat hacmindeki iyile\u015fmenin devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret etmi\u015f. Bilhassa, AB\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik ihracattaki toparlanman\u0131n olumlu etkisi not al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f. Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu \u00fcyeleri, yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131n h\u0131zla uygulamaya ge\u00e7irilmesinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyelini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na da i\u015faret etmi\u015f. 16 Nisan referandumundan \u00e7\u0131kacak \u2018evet\u2019 ile reformlara odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131, 3 ay i\u00e7erisinde, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve istihdamda olumlu bir s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda ciddi bir hareketlenmeyi de beraberinde getirecek. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin i\u015fsizlik verilerini analiz ederken, sadece 2016\u2019da 900 bin ki\u015fiye yak\u0131n i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131, Avrupa\u2019daki i\u015fsizlik verileri ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin i\u015fsizlik verilerini kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n haks\u0131zl\u0131k olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bize hat\u0131rlatmal\u0131. Bu nedenle, artan i\u015fsizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yeni istihdam \u00fcretme kapasitesi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>ENFLASYON YAZ BA\u015eINDA GEV\u015eEYECEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 2-3 ay, enflasyonun y\u00fcksek seyretmeye devam edece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bununla birlikte, haziran ve bilhassa temmuz ay\u0131nda, TCMB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 tedbirleri ve referandumdan \u2018evet\u2019 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ile dolar kurunda 3.30 TL band\u0131na kadar g\u00f6zlenecek gev\u015feme, en ge\u00e7 yaz ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren fiyatlarda normalle\u015fme sa\u011flayacak. Nitekim, TCMB\u2019nin, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyon normalle\u015fene kadar, kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 net bir \u015fekilde vurgulamas\u0131 piyasalarca desteklendi. 2 ay sonra, bamba\u015fka ve olumlu bir piyasay\u0131 konu\u015fuyor olaca\u011f\u0131z. D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki normalle\u015fme ve 2019\u2019a kadar yeni bir se\u00e7im olmamas\u0131 ile birlikte, bilhassa \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki canlanma piyasalar\u0131 hareketlendirecek. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Moralimizi y\u00fcksek tutal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>FED BEKLENEN ADIMI ATTI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">K\u00fcresel piyasalar iki haftad\u0131r, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz \u00e7ar\u015famba Fed\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 faiz karar\u0131yla yat\u0131p kalk\u0131yorlard\u0131. Fed\u2019den faiz art\u0131\u015f karar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131na dair beklenti doruktayd\u0131 ve esas, 2017\u2019de ka\u00e7 kez faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 merak konusuydu. Fed A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi\u2019nin (FOMC) para politikas\u0131 faizini y\u00fczde 0.75-1.00 band\u0131na \u00e7ekme karar\u0131 beklentinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi oldu. Bununla birlikte, FOMC \u00fcyelerinin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri ve karar sonras\u0131nda Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Janet Yellen\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, k\u00fcresel finans piyasas\u0131 profesyonelleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, Fed\u2019in 2017 sonuna kadar en fazla iki faiz art\u0131\u015f karar\u0131 daha alabilece\u011fi \u015feklinde yorumland\u0131 ve bu y\u0131l en az d\u00f6rt faiz art\u0131\u015f karar\u0131 opsiyonu \u015fu an i\u00e7in masadan kalkm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Bu geli\u015fme, ba\u015fta Euro, \u00f6nde gelen geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan para birimlerinin ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlerinin toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. Fed yetkililerinin, Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n hen\u00fcz netle\u015fmemesi nedeniyle temkinli davrand\u0131klar\u0131 da g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Trump\u2019\u0131n politika tercihleri, altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 hamlesi, ABD ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan enflasyon riskini art\u0131rabilecek geli\u015fmeler. Bu nedenle, piyasa profesyonelleri, artan enflasyon riskine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Fed\u2019den 2017 i\u00e7in en az d\u00f6rt faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ad\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik mesaj bekliyorlard\u0131. Verilen mesaj, t\u00fcm 2017 i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 karar\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edince, 101.70 puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan Dolar Endeksi, 100.70 puan\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledi. Bir ba\u015fka a\u00e7\u0131dan, son k\u00fcresel finans krizi ile birlikte, ekonomi tarihinde ilk kez, bu derece y\u00fcksek ihracat yapmaya odaklanm\u0131\u015f olan ABD ekonomisinin, Fed\u2019in seri faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kararlar\u0131 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fer kazanacak dolar nedeniyle, ihracat performans\u0131nda bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ya\u015famaktan ho\u015flanmayaca\u011f\u0131 ifade edilebilir. Bu nedenle, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik seri ad\u0131mlar atmas\u0131 ve bu nedenle dolar\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131, ileride Trump Y\u00f6netimi ile Fed aras\u0131nda kritik tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 da alevlendirebilir g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"tcmbden-proaktif-adimlara-devam","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"TCMB\u2019den \u2018proaktif\u2019 ad\u0131mlara devam","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":106,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}