{"status":true,"post":{"id":14479,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:47:44","created_at":"2016-08-21T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:47:44.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":14479,"is_featured":0,"title":"TCMB faiz indirimi i\u00e7in yeni bir alan yakalam\u0131\u015f olabilir","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Her ay toplanan TCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun, para politikas\u0131 ile ilgili karar al\u0131rken, birka\u00e7 kritik \u00f6nemde konuyu g\u00f6zlemlemesine ihtiya\u00e7 var. Birincisi, enflasyonun ve enflasyon beklentilerinin seyri. \u0130kincisi, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131n ve d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 ile ilgili beklentilerin seyri. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, TCMB\u2019nin her ay d\u00fczenli olarak yap\u0131p, 100 ekonomiste sordu\u011fu sorulara verilen cevaplarla \u015fekillenen Beklenti Anketi\u2019ndeki detaylar. D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, ekonomistlerle ay i\u00e7erisinde, bir rapor a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 veya g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f al\u0131\u015f-veri\u015fi amac\u0131yla yap\u0131lan toplant\u0131lar.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>ENFLASYON BEKLENT\u0130S\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2015 y\u0131l\u0131 temmuz ay\u0131nda sadece y\u00fczde 0.09 artan T\u00dcFE enflasyonunun, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz temmuzda, piyasa beklentilerinin \u00fczerinde bir art\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 1.16\u2019y\u0131 bulmas\u0131, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyonu da y\u00fczde 7.64\u2019den, bir anda y\u00fczde 8.79\u2019a f\u0131rlatt\u0131. TCMB\u2019nin temmuz ay\u0131 Beklenti Anketi\u2019nde, nisan ile temmuz aras\u0131, 2016 y\u0131l sonu T\u00dcFE enflasyonu beklentisi y\u00fczde 7.91 ile 7.81 aras\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, 12 ay sonras\u0131n\u0131n, yani 2017 ortas\u0131ndaki y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi y\u00fczde 7.6\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na gelmi\u015f. 2018 ortas\u0131 i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 7.14 ile 6.95 aras\u0131 dola\u015fan bir beklenti g\u00f6zleniyor. TCMB, 12 ve 24 ay sonras\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon beklentisini dikkate alarak, faiz koridorunun \u00fcst band\u0131 olan ve \u2018TCMB Gecelik Bor\u00e7 Verme Faiz Oran\u0131\u2019 olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan y\u00fczde 8.75 d\u00fczeyindeki faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 8.5 ile 8.25\u2019e \u00e7ekebilir<\/span><\/p>  <p><strong style=\"font-size: 15.6px;\">25 \u0130LE 50 BAZ FA\u0130Z \u0130ND\u0130REB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">E\u011fer, 12 ay sonras\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon beklentisi y\u00fczde 7.6\u2019dan, 8\u2019e; bu y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisi de 7.81\u2019den 8.2\u2019ye s\u0131\u00e7rarsa TCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu y\u00fczde 8.75\u2019e kadar indirdi\u011fi faiz koridoru \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131 8.5\u2019e kadar, bir 25 baz puan daha indirmeyi tercih edebilir. Yeni \u2018hal\u2019 yasas\u0131, tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 30 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe sebep olacak ise \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 6 ayda, TCMB\u2019nin faiz indirimlerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine \u015fahit olabiliriz.<\/span><\/p>  <p><strong style=\"font-size: 15.6px;\">FED\u2019\u0130N Z\u0130HN\u0130 H\u00c2L\u00c2 KARI\u015eIK<\/strong><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Temmuz sonu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen son Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan tutanaklar, Fed yetkililerinin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 konusunda h\u00e2l\u00e2 zihinlerinin kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Tutanaklar, Fed yetkililerinin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131na dair ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan, faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n bir s\u00fcre daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalaca\u011f\u0131 tahminleri y\u00fckseldi ve bu durum dolar\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 piyasalarda de\u011fer kaybetmesine sebep oldu. K\u00fcresel piyasalarda y\u00fczde 51 seviyesinde olan, Fed\u2019in aral\u0131k ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik beklenti, tutanaklar a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131ktan sonra y\u00fczde 46\u2019ya geriledi. Uzmanlar, Fed tutanaklar\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 konusunda aceleci davranmak istemeyen \u2018g\u00fcvercin\u2019 Fed yetkilileri ile faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 konusunda gecikilmemesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen \u2018\u015fahin\u2019 Fed yetkililerine ayn\u0131 miktarda cephane verdi\u011fini belirtiyorlar.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">,K\u00fcresel piyasa uzmanlar\u0131, aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar bir\u00e7ok ekonomik rakam a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi ile Fed\u2019in en erken faiz art\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131n\u0131n 2017\u2019nin ilk 3 ay\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki tahminlerini vurguluyorlar.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"tcmb-faiz-indirimi-icin-yeni-bir-alan-yakalamis-olabilir","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"TCMB faiz indirimi i\u00e7in yeni bir alan yakalam\u0131\u015f olabilir","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":106,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":14578,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":14479,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"TCMB faiz indirimi i\u00e7in yeni bir alan yakalam\u0131\u015f olabilir","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Her ay toplanan TCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun, para politikas\u0131 ile ilgili karar al\u0131rken, birka\u00e7 kritik \u00f6nemde konuyu g\u00f6zlemlemesine ihtiya\u00e7 var. Birincisi, enflasyonun ve enflasyon beklentilerinin seyri. \u0130kincisi, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131n ve d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 ile ilgili beklentilerin seyri. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, TCMB\u2019nin her ay d\u00fczenli olarak yap\u0131p, 100 ekonomiste sordu\u011fu sorulara verilen cevaplarla \u015fekillenen Beklenti Anketi\u2019ndeki detaylar. D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, ekonomistlerle ay i\u00e7erisinde, bir rapor a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 veya g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f al\u0131\u015f-veri\u015fi amac\u0131yla yap\u0131lan toplant\u0131lar.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>ENFLASYON BEKLENT\u0130S\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2015 y\u0131l\u0131 temmuz ay\u0131nda sadece y\u00fczde 0.09 artan T\u00dcFE enflasyonunun, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz temmuzda, piyasa beklentilerinin \u00fczerinde bir art\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 1.16\u2019y\u0131 bulmas\u0131, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyonu da y\u00fczde 7.64\u2019den, bir anda y\u00fczde 8.79\u2019a f\u0131rlatt\u0131. TCMB\u2019nin temmuz ay\u0131 Beklenti Anketi\u2019nde, nisan ile temmuz aras\u0131, 2016 y\u0131l sonu T\u00dcFE enflasyonu beklentisi y\u00fczde 7.91 ile 7.81 aras\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, 12 ay sonras\u0131n\u0131n, yani 2017 ortas\u0131ndaki y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi y\u00fczde 7.6\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na gelmi\u015f. 2018 ortas\u0131 i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 7.14 ile 6.95 aras\u0131 dola\u015fan bir beklenti g\u00f6zleniyor. TCMB, 12 ve 24 ay sonras\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon beklentisini dikkate alarak, faiz koridorunun \u00fcst band\u0131 olan ve \u2018TCMB Gecelik Bor\u00e7 Verme Faiz Oran\u0131\u2019 olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan y\u00fczde 8.75 d\u00fczeyindeki faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 8.5 ile 8.25\u2019e \u00e7ekebilir<\/span><\/p>  <p><strong style=\"font-size: 15.6px;\">25 \u0130LE 50 BAZ FA\u0130Z \u0130ND\u0130REB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">E\u011fer, 12 ay sonras\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon beklentisi y\u00fczde 7.6\u2019dan, 8\u2019e; bu y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisi de 7.81\u2019den 8.2\u2019ye s\u0131\u00e7rarsa TCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu y\u00fczde 8.75\u2019e kadar indirdi\u011fi faiz koridoru \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131 8.5\u2019e kadar, bir 25 baz puan daha indirmeyi tercih edebilir. Yeni \u2018hal\u2019 yasas\u0131, tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 30 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe sebep olacak ise \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 6 ayda, TCMB\u2019nin faiz indirimlerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine \u015fahit olabiliriz.<\/span><\/p>  <p><strong style=\"font-size: 15.6px;\">FED\u2019\u0130N Z\u0130HN\u0130 H\u00c2L\u00c2 KARI\u015eIK<\/strong><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Temmuz sonu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen son Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan tutanaklar, Fed yetkililerinin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 konusunda h\u00e2l\u00e2 zihinlerinin kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Tutanaklar, Fed yetkililerinin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131na dair ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan, faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n bir s\u00fcre daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalaca\u011f\u0131 tahminleri y\u00fckseldi ve bu durum dolar\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 piyasalarda de\u011fer kaybetmesine sebep oldu. K\u00fcresel piyasalarda y\u00fczde 51 seviyesinde olan, Fed\u2019in aral\u0131k ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik beklenti, tutanaklar a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131ktan sonra y\u00fczde 46\u2019ya geriledi. Uzmanlar, Fed tutanaklar\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 konusunda aceleci davranmak istemeyen \u2018g\u00fcvercin\u2019 Fed yetkilileri ile faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 konusunda gecikilmemesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen \u2018\u015fahin\u2019 Fed yetkililerine ayn\u0131 miktarda cephane verdi\u011fini belirtiyorlar.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">,K\u00fcresel piyasa uzmanlar\u0131, aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar bir\u00e7ok ekonomik rakam a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi ile Fed\u2019in en erken faiz art\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131n\u0131n 2017\u2019nin ilk 3 ay\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki tahminlerini vurguluyorlar.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"tcmb-faiz-indirimi-icin-yeni-bir-alan-yakalamis-olabilir","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"TCMB faiz indirimi i\u00e7in yeni bir alan yakalam\u0131\u015f olabilir","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":106,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}