{"status":true,"post":{"id":13706,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:30:54","created_at":"2016-05-08T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:30:54.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":13706,"is_featured":0,"title":"TCMB \u2018enflasyon hedeflemesi\u2019ni bitirmeli","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Ge\u00e7en hafta, k\u00fcresel finans sisteminin profesyonelleri ve uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan moral dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir haftayd\u0131. Japon ve Yeni Zelanda merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n, geni\u015fletici para politikas\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131 ayn\u0131 d\u00fczeyde b\u0131rak\u0131p ek tedbir almamalar\u0131, \u2018ek tedbir\u2019 umudu ta\u015f\u0131yan ekonomi akt\u00f6rlerini \u00fczerken, merakla beklenen ABD\u2019nin 2016 ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisinin de, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011fi y\u00fczde 1.4 a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015f iken ve ekonomistlerin beklentisi de y\u00fczde 0.7 iken, y\u00fczde 0.5 a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 da, ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00f6nelik \u2018hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019 ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 oldu. ABD hane halk\u0131n\u0131n genel ve \u00e7ekirdek t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f beklenenden iyi gelmi\u015f olsa da, bir\u00e7ok ABD verisinin beklenenin alt\u0131nda performans g\u00f6stermesi, piyasa profesyonelleri ve ekonomistlerin aras\u0131nda, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan haziran ay\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n zor oldu\u011fu alg\u0131s\u0131na sebep olmu\u015f durumda.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Ekonomistler, ABD ekonomisi i\u00e7in bu y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini y\u00fczde 2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrlerken, Japonya ve Yeni Zelanda merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n te\u015fvikleri art\u0131rmamas\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 karamsarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u015fimdi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin nereden gelece\u011fini sorguluyorlar. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, Euro ve yen gibi paralar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur yoluyla enflasyonu y\u00fckseltmek ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi art\u0131rmak isteyen \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7in de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fck olu\u015fturuyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>EURO\u2019NUN DE\u011eER KAZANMASI T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019N\u0130N LEH\u0130NE<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Turizm ve ihracat gelirlerinin y\u00fczde 60\u2019a yak\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc Euro cinsinden olan T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 1.05 dolar yerine, 1.15 dolar d\u00fczeyine oynayan bir Euro-dolar paritesi ku\u015fkusuz tercihimiz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, hem k\u00fcresel ticaretteki hem de etraf\u0131m\u0131zdaki 1. ve 2 ku\u015fak kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerdeki siyasi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, T\u00fcrk ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 gelir kaybetmeye devam ederken, Euro B\u00f6lgesi ve genel anlamda Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019ne yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ihracatta, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Draghi, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcm zorluklara ra\u011fmen, geni\u015fletici para politikas\u0131 tedbirlerindeki \u0131srar\u0131 sayesinde toparlanan Avrupa piyasas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131na da olumlu y\u00f6nde yans\u0131yor. Bir de \u00fcst\u00fcne, Euro\u2019nun de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 da T\u00fcrk ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fme olarak vurgulanmal\u0131. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> T\u00fcrk ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, Euro-dolar paritesinin seyri ne kadar \u00f6nemliyse, ba\u015fta asgari \u00fccretin y\u00fczde 30 artmas\u0131 olmak \u00fczere, TL cinsinden \u00fcretim maliyetlerindeki ciddi art\u0131\u015flar nedeniyle T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki seyri de \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. Bu noktada, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadleri nedeniyle dolar-TL kurunun 2.88-2.92 TL band\u0131nda olmas\u0131 gerekirken, 2.84-2.80 TL band\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131rarak, 2.80-2.76 TL band\u0131n\u0131 zorluyor olmas\u0131, muhakkak ki, T\u00fcrk ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 mutlu etmiyor. Bununla birlikte, ba\u015fta ihracat ama\u00e7l\u0131 \u00fcretim yapan firmalar\u0131m\u0131z olmak \u00fczere, T\u00fcrk \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 ciddi miktardaki d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, dolar-TL kurunun 3.0750 TL olmas\u0131 halinde, mevcut d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7evrilmesi ile dolar-TL kurunun 2.80 TL ve alt\u0131nda olmas\u0131 halinde mevcut d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7evrilmesi, elbette ki T\u00fcrk firmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 etkiye sebep olacak.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>D\u00d6V\u0130Z MEVDUATINDAK\u0130 ARTI\u015e D\u0130KKAT \u00c7EK\u0130C\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrk halk\u0131n\u0131n ve i\u015fletmelerimizin d\u00f6viz cinsinden mevduat\u0131n\u0131n 164 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015farak, yeni bir Cumhuriyet tarihi rekoru k\u0131rmas\u0131, hane halk\u0131n\u0131n ve i\u015fletmelerin geni\u015f bir kesiminde, dolar-TL kurunun yeniden 3 TL\u2019ye do\u011fru hareket etme ihtimalinin \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc teyit ediyor. Oysa, piyasalardaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015fman\u0131n rahatlamas\u0131 ad\u0131na, T\u00fcrk bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir TL mevduat\u0131 giri\u015fine ihtiyac\u0131 var. TCMB\u2019nin de, yeni Ba\u015fkan Murat \u00c7etinkaya ile bundan sonra izleyece\u011fi strateji kritik \u00f6nemde. \u015eahsi kanaatim, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren k\u00fcresel ekonomik konjonkt\u00fcre ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, zaten misyonunu kaybetmi\u015f olan \u2018enflasyon hedeflemesi\u2019 modelinin terk edilmesi. Bu noktada, TCMB\u2019nin \u2018d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m\u2019 ihalelerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor olmas\u0131 da tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131yd\u0131 ve ele\u015ftiriyorduk. 3 y\u0131l aradan sonra, TCMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m ihalesi a\u00e7mam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, \u00f6nemli bir ad\u0131md\u0131r. TL, rakibimiz olan \u00fclkelerin para birimlerinin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki durumlar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi ciddi performans ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenme mesaj\u0131 verirken, TCMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m ihalelerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi, TL\u2019nin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmesine katk\u0131 anlam\u0131nda, bilhassa ihracat\u00e7\u0131 kesiminde yad\u0131rgan\u0131yordu. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki zay\u0131flaman\u0131n ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye net sermaye giri\u015finin devam etmesi halinde, TCMB\u2019nin esas \u2018d\u00f6viz al\u0131m\u2019 ihalelerine ba\u015flamas\u0131 ve bu sayede rezerv biriktirmesi, piyasaya da TL vermesi yararl\u0131 olabilir.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"tcmb-enflasyon-hedeflemesini-bitirmeli","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"TCMB \u2018enflasyon hedeflemesi\u2019ni bitirmeli","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":93,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":13805,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":13706,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"TCMB \u2018enflasyon hedeflemesi\u2019ni bitirmeli","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Ge\u00e7en hafta, k\u00fcresel finans sisteminin profesyonelleri ve uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan moral dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir haftayd\u0131. Japon ve Yeni Zelanda merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n, geni\u015fletici para politikas\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131 ayn\u0131 d\u00fczeyde b\u0131rak\u0131p ek tedbir almamalar\u0131, \u2018ek tedbir\u2019 umudu ta\u015f\u0131yan ekonomi akt\u00f6rlerini \u00fczerken, merakla beklenen ABD\u2019nin 2016 ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisinin de, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011fi y\u00fczde 1.4 a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015f iken ve ekonomistlerin beklentisi de y\u00fczde 0.7 iken, y\u00fczde 0.5 a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 da, ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00f6nelik \u2018hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019 ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 oldu. ABD hane halk\u0131n\u0131n genel ve \u00e7ekirdek t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f beklenenden iyi gelmi\u015f olsa da, bir\u00e7ok ABD verisinin beklenenin alt\u0131nda performans g\u00f6stermesi, piyasa profesyonelleri ve ekonomistlerin aras\u0131nda, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan haziran ay\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n zor oldu\u011fu alg\u0131s\u0131na sebep olmu\u015f durumda.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Ekonomistler, ABD ekonomisi i\u00e7in bu y\u0131lki b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini y\u00fczde 2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrlerken, Japonya ve Yeni Zelanda merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n te\u015fvikleri art\u0131rmamas\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 karamsarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u015fimdi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin nereden gelece\u011fini sorguluyorlar. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, Euro ve yen gibi paralar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur yoluyla enflasyonu y\u00fckseltmek ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi art\u0131rmak isteyen \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7in de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fck olu\u015fturuyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>EURO\u2019NUN DE\u011eER KAZANMASI T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019N\u0130N LEH\u0130NE<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Turizm ve ihracat gelirlerinin y\u00fczde 60\u2019a yak\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc Euro cinsinden olan T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 1.05 dolar yerine, 1.15 dolar d\u00fczeyine oynayan bir Euro-dolar paritesi ku\u015fkusuz tercihimiz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, hem k\u00fcresel ticaretteki hem de etraf\u0131m\u0131zdaki 1. ve 2 ku\u015fak kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerdeki siyasi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, T\u00fcrk ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 gelir kaybetmeye devam ederken, Euro B\u00f6lgesi ve genel anlamda Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019ne yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ihracatta, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Draghi, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcm zorluklara ra\u011fmen, geni\u015fletici para politikas\u0131 tedbirlerindeki \u0131srar\u0131 sayesinde toparlanan Avrupa piyasas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131na da olumlu y\u00f6nde yans\u0131yor. Bir de \u00fcst\u00fcne, Euro\u2019nun de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 da T\u00fcrk ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fme olarak vurgulanmal\u0131. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> T\u00fcrk ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, Euro-dolar paritesinin seyri ne kadar \u00f6nemliyse, ba\u015fta asgari \u00fccretin y\u00fczde 30 artmas\u0131 olmak \u00fczere, TL cinsinden \u00fcretim maliyetlerindeki ciddi art\u0131\u015flar nedeniyle T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki seyri de \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. Bu noktada, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadleri nedeniyle dolar-TL kurunun 2.88-2.92 TL band\u0131nda olmas\u0131 gerekirken, 2.84-2.80 TL band\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131rarak, 2.80-2.76 TL band\u0131n\u0131 zorluyor olmas\u0131, muhakkak ki, T\u00fcrk ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 mutlu etmiyor. Bununla birlikte, ba\u015fta ihracat ama\u00e7l\u0131 \u00fcretim yapan firmalar\u0131m\u0131z olmak \u00fczere, T\u00fcrk \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 ciddi miktardaki d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, dolar-TL kurunun 3.0750 TL olmas\u0131 halinde, mevcut d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7evrilmesi ile dolar-TL kurunun 2.80 TL ve alt\u0131nda olmas\u0131 halinde mevcut d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7evrilmesi, elbette ki T\u00fcrk firmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 etkiye sebep olacak.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>D\u00d6V\u0130Z MEVDUATINDAK\u0130 ARTI\u015e D\u0130KKAT \u00c7EK\u0130C\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrk halk\u0131n\u0131n ve i\u015fletmelerimizin d\u00f6viz cinsinden mevduat\u0131n\u0131n 164 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015farak, yeni bir Cumhuriyet tarihi rekoru k\u0131rmas\u0131, hane halk\u0131n\u0131n ve i\u015fletmelerin geni\u015f bir kesiminde, dolar-TL kurunun yeniden 3 TL\u2019ye do\u011fru hareket etme ihtimalinin \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc teyit ediyor. Oysa, piyasalardaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015fman\u0131n rahatlamas\u0131 ad\u0131na, T\u00fcrk bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir TL mevduat\u0131 giri\u015fine ihtiyac\u0131 var. TCMB\u2019nin de, yeni Ba\u015fkan Murat \u00c7etinkaya ile bundan sonra izleyece\u011fi strateji kritik \u00f6nemde. \u015eahsi kanaatim, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren k\u00fcresel ekonomik konjonkt\u00fcre ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, zaten misyonunu kaybetmi\u015f olan \u2018enflasyon hedeflemesi\u2019 modelinin terk edilmesi. Bu noktada, TCMB\u2019nin \u2018d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m\u2019 ihalelerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor olmas\u0131 da tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131yd\u0131 ve ele\u015ftiriyorduk. 3 y\u0131l aradan sonra, TCMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m ihalesi a\u00e7mam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, \u00f6nemli bir ad\u0131md\u0131r. TL, rakibimiz olan \u00fclkelerin para birimlerinin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki durumlar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi ciddi performans ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenme mesaj\u0131 verirken, TCMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz sat\u0131m ihalelerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi, TL\u2019nin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmesine katk\u0131 anlam\u0131nda, bilhassa ihracat\u00e7\u0131 kesiminde yad\u0131rgan\u0131yordu. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki zay\u0131flaman\u0131n ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye net sermaye giri\u015finin devam etmesi halinde, TCMB\u2019nin esas \u2018d\u00f6viz al\u0131m\u2019 ihalelerine ba\u015flamas\u0131 ve bu sayede rezerv biriktirmesi, piyasaya da TL vermesi yararl\u0131 olabilir.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"tcmb-enflasyon-hedeflemesini-bitirmeli","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"TCMB \u2018enflasyon hedeflemesi\u2019ni bitirmeli","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":93,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}