{"status":true,"post":{"id":39057,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-04-17 07:59:00","created_at":"2023-04-17T04:59:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-04-17T04:59:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":39057,"is_featured":0,"title":"Son makro veriler durgunluk sinyali veriyor mu?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"

<\/span><\/strong>
<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan verileri teker teker inceleyelim. B\u00f6ylece son veriler bize ne gibi sinyaller veriyor, g\u00f6relim. Verilerin deprem b\u00f6lgesi ile ilgili b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc maalesef sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 toplanamam\u0131\u015f ve toplam analize etkisi de y\u00fczde 3.76\u2019d\u0131r. \u015eubat ay\u0131 perakende sat\u0131\u015f verilerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, sabit fiyatlarla perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacminin \u00a0(2015=100) 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 \u015fubat ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 6.5 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ayn\u0131 ayda g\u0131da, i\u00e7ecek ve t\u00fct\u00fcn sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0.3, g\u0131da d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n (otomotiv yak\u0131t\u0131 hari\u00e7) y\u00fczde 8.7, otomotiv yak\u0131t\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ise y\u00fczde 8.8 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Buradan \u015fubat ay\u0131nda perakende sat\u0131\u015flarda g\u0131da d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ciddi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. G\u0131dada ise deprem b\u00f6lgesine destek kayd\u0131yla yap\u0131lan al\u0131mlar, talepteki daralmay\u0131 neredeyse telafi etmi\u015ftir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdi ciro endeks geli\u015fimine bakal\u0131m. Sanayi, in\u015faat, ticaret ve hizmet sekt\u00f6rleri toplam\u0131nda ciro endeksi (2015=100), 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 \u015fubat ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 5.1 azald\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Toplam cironun alt detaylar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda; 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 \u015fubat ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k in\u015faat ciro endeksinin y\u00fczde 5.1 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ciro endeksinin y\u00fczde 5.0, ticaret ciro endeksinin y\u00fczde 7.3, hizmet ciro endeksinin ise y\u00fczde 1.5 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130n\u015faat d\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131nda cirolarda da bir daralma oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Maalesef bu hesaplamada da ula\u015f\u0131lamayan verilerin oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 3.52 civar\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

YURT DI\u015eI TALEP DARALMASI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Sanayi \u00fcretimine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda; burada da y\u00fczde 1.94\u2019l\u00fck ula\u015f\u0131lamayan verilerle birlikte, \u015fubat ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 6 daralan sanayi \u00fcretiminin alt sekt\u00f6rleri incelendi\u011finde, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 \u015fubat ay\u0131nda madencilik ve ta\u015f ocak\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sekt\u00f6r\u00fc endeksinin bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 11.2 ve imalat sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc endeksinin y\u00fczde 6.6 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, elektrik, gaz, buhar ve iklimlendirme \u00fcretimi ve da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m\u0131 sekt\u00f6r\u00fc endeksinin ise y\u00fczde 1.4 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

G\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi ula\u015f\u0131lamayan veriler olmakla birlikte, t\u00fcm veriler bir talep daralmas\u0131 oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a teyit ediyor. S\u00f6z konusu daralma \u00fcretim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle olsayd\u0131 enflasyonda ciddi art\u0131\u015flar olabilirdi. Oysa enflasyonda da, \u00dcFE rakam\u0131nda da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi devam ediyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ciro, sat\u0131\u015f ve sanayi \u00fcretimindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f hem yurt i\u00e7i hem de yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 talep daralmas\u0131yla ilgilidir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

KUR VE FA\u0130Z ARTIRIMININ BEDEL\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu durumda bir yandan yeni pazarlara ula\u015fman\u0131n yollar\u0131na bakmak gerekirken, i\u00e7eride h\u0131zla artan enflasyonun zarar verdi\u011fi yurt i\u00e7i sat\u0131nalma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn de toparlanmas\u0131 gerekir. Bu durumda gelirlerin enflasyona g\u00f6re reel anlamda artmas\u0131 ve uygun bir bi\u00e7imde da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131 son derece \u00f6nemli.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcnde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n yeri asla olmamal\u0131. Aksi halde i\u00e7 piyasada talep tamamen kesilir ve durgunlu\u011fa kesin olarak gireriz. Kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gelince, TL\u2019nin her de\u011fer kayb\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 fakirle\u015fmemiz anlam\u0131na gelir, en k\u0131sa zamanda enflasyonla gelir erozyonuna yol a\u00e7ar. \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131, enflasyon ile kal\u0131c\u0131 maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iyi bilmeli.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u015eunu asla unutmamal\u0131y\u0131z: Fiyatlar \u00e7ok kolay artar, ancak \u00e7ok kolay d\u00fc\u015fmez. Fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri bir\u00e7ok firman\u0131n batmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na da gelebilir. O y\u00fczden en ba\u015fta fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine sebep olacak kur, faiz gibi silahlar\u0131 kullan\u0131rken bedelinin ne olaca\u011f\u0131 iyi bilinmeli. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olmuyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"son-makro-veriler-durgunluk-sinyali-veriyor-mu","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1681678800YOJUXIGDNZRtCCb.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":2633,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":39183,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":39057,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Son makro veriler durgunluk sinyali veriyor mu?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"

<\/span><\/strong>
<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan verileri teker teker inceleyelim. B\u00f6ylece son veriler bize ne gibi sinyaller veriyor, g\u00f6relim. Verilerin deprem b\u00f6lgesi ile ilgili b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc maalesef sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 toplanamam\u0131\u015f ve toplam analize etkisi de y\u00fczde 3.76\u2019d\u0131r. \u015eubat ay\u0131 perakende sat\u0131\u015f verilerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, sabit fiyatlarla perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacminin \u00a0(2015=100) 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 \u015fubat ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 6.5 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ayn\u0131 ayda g\u0131da, i\u00e7ecek ve t\u00fct\u00fcn sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0.3, g\u0131da d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n (otomotiv yak\u0131t\u0131 hari\u00e7) y\u00fczde 8.7, otomotiv yak\u0131t\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ise y\u00fczde 8.8 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Buradan \u015fubat ay\u0131nda perakende sat\u0131\u015flarda g\u0131da d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ciddi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. G\u0131dada ise deprem b\u00f6lgesine destek kayd\u0131yla yap\u0131lan al\u0131mlar, talepteki daralmay\u0131 neredeyse telafi etmi\u015ftir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdi ciro endeks geli\u015fimine bakal\u0131m. Sanayi, in\u015faat, ticaret ve hizmet sekt\u00f6rleri toplam\u0131nda ciro endeksi (2015=100), 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 \u015fubat ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 5.1 azald\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Toplam cironun alt detaylar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda; 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 \u015fubat ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k in\u015faat ciro endeksinin y\u00fczde 5.1 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ciro endeksinin y\u00fczde 5.0, ticaret ciro endeksinin y\u00fczde 7.3, hizmet ciro endeksinin ise y\u00fczde 1.5 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130n\u015faat d\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131nda cirolarda da bir daralma oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Maalesef bu hesaplamada da ula\u015f\u0131lamayan verilerin oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 3.52 civar\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

YURT DI\u015eI TALEP DARALMASI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Sanayi \u00fcretimine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda; burada da y\u00fczde 1.94\u2019l\u00fck ula\u015f\u0131lamayan verilerle birlikte, \u015fubat ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 6 daralan sanayi \u00fcretiminin alt sekt\u00f6rleri incelendi\u011finde, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 \u015fubat ay\u0131nda madencilik ve ta\u015f ocak\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sekt\u00f6r\u00fc endeksinin bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 11.2 ve imalat sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc endeksinin y\u00fczde 6.6 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, elektrik, gaz, buhar ve iklimlendirme \u00fcretimi ve da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m\u0131 sekt\u00f6r\u00fc endeksinin ise y\u00fczde 1.4 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

G\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi ula\u015f\u0131lamayan veriler olmakla birlikte, t\u00fcm veriler bir talep daralmas\u0131 oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a teyit ediyor. S\u00f6z konusu daralma \u00fcretim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle olsayd\u0131 enflasyonda ciddi art\u0131\u015flar olabilirdi. Oysa enflasyonda da, \u00dcFE rakam\u0131nda da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi devam ediyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ciro, sat\u0131\u015f ve sanayi \u00fcretimindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f hem yurt i\u00e7i hem de yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 talep daralmas\u0131yla ilgilidir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

KUR VE FA\u0130Z ARTIRIMININ BEDEL\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu durumda bir yandan yeni pazarlara ula\u015fman\u0131n yollar\u0131na bakmak gerekirken, i\u00e7eride h\u0131zla artan enflasyonun zarar verdi\u011fi yurt i\u00e7i sat\u0131nalma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn de toparlanmas\u0131 gerekir. Bu durumda gelirlerin enflasyona g\u00f6re reel anlamda artmas\u0131 ve uygun bir bi\u00e7imde da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131 son derece \u00f6nemli.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcnde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n yeri asla olmamal\u0131. Aksi halde i\u00e7 piyasada talep tamamen kesilir ve durgunlu\u011fa kesin olarak gireriz. Kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gelince, TL\u2019nin her de\u011fer kayb\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 fakirle\u015fmemiz anlam\u0131na gelir, en k\u0131sa zamanda enflasyonla gelir erozyonuna yol a\u00e7ar. \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131, enflasyon ile kal\u0131c\u0131 maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iyi bilmeli.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u015eunu asla unutmamal\u0131y\u0131z: Fiyatlar \u00e7ok kolay artar, ancak \u00e7ok kolay d\u00fc\u015fmez. Fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri bir\u00e7ok firman\u0131n batmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na da gelebilir. O y\u00fczden en ba\u015fta fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine sebep olacak kur, faiz gibi silahlar\u0131 kullan\u0131rken bedelinin ne olaca\u011f\u0131 iyi bilinmeli. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olmuyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"son-makro-veriler-durgunluk-sinyali-veriyor-mu","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1681678800YOJUXIGDNZRtCCb.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1681678800YOJUXIGDNZRtCCb.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":2633,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}