{"status":true,"post":{"id":34258,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 21:34:23","created_at":"2022-08-04T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T18:34:23.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":34258,"is_featured":0,"title":"Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u00f6viz pozisyonlar\u0131","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

H\u0130KMET BAYDAR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankas\u0131, finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn oldu\u011fu gibi reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn de durumunu s\u00fcrekli kontrol eder. Gerek kredi ve g\u00fcven, gerekse ekonomi hakk\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerine kadar reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn bir\u00e7ok bilgisine ula\u015farak analiz eder. Bu analizlerden biri de finans kesim d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kurulu\u015flar\u0131n yani reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u00f6viz varl\u0131k ve y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleridir. <\/span>
<\/span>
Son zamanlarda bu konuda \u00e7ok fazla s\u00f6ylem oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in konuyu inceleyip d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerimizi sizlerle payla\u015fmak istedik.<\/span>
<\/span>
TCMB, \u2018Finansal Kesim D\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki Firmalar\u0131n D\u00f6viz Varl\u0131k ve Y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri\u2019 adl\u0131 May\u0131s 2022 tarihli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u00f6viz kompozisyonunu ve geli\u015fimini rakamlar\u0131yla birlikte a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. May\u0131s 2022 d\u00f6nemine ait finansal kesim d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki firmalar\u0131n d\u00f6viz varl\u0131k ve y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri tablosu de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde; Nisan 2022 verilerine g\u00f6re varl\u0131klar\u0131n 2.539 milyon dolar, y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerin ise 647 milyon dolar artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Net d\u00f6viz pozisyonu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 105.803 milyon dolar\u0131 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini ve Nisan 2022 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re 1.893 milyon dolar azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. B\u00f6ylece toplamda reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn net d\u00f6viz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda azalma oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bor\u00e7 giri\u015fleri kay\u0131t alt\u0131na al\u0131nan reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn bu bor\u00e7 sayesinde elde edece\u011fi nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 hen\u00fcz kay\u0131t alt\u0131na al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan burada hep eksi rakam\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmemiz son derece do\u011fald\u0131r.<\/span>
<\/span>
DI\u015e T\u0130CAR\u0130 PARTNERLER<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
\u015eimdi biraz daha detaya inelim ve May\u0131s 2022 d\u00f6nemi varl\u0131k da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 inceleyelim. Bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re ihracat alacaklar\u0131 <\/span>
767 milyon dolar azal\u0131rken, yurt i\u00e7i bankalardaki mevduat ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na do\u011frudan sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131yla 3.186 milyon dolar ve 83 milyon dolar artm\u0131\u015f ve sonu\u00e7 olarak varl\u0131klar 2.539 milyon dolar artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Burada dikkatinizi \u00f6zellikle yurt i\u00e7i bankalarda artan d\u00f6viz mevduata \u00e7ekmek istiyoruz ve artan d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131n 3.186 milyon dolar oldu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyoruz. Y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fck da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda ise bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re yurt i\u00e7inden sa\u011flanan nakdi krediler 777 milyon dolar azal\u0131rken, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan sa\u011flanan nakdi krediler ve ithalat bor\u00e7lar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131yla 850 milyon dolar ve 574 milyon dolar artm\u0131\u015f ve bunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler 647 milyon dolar artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle ithalat bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bir nevi piyasa kredisi oldu\u011funu ve firmalar\u0131n kredi ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azaltan bir etki yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da unutmamal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/span>
<\/span>
Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn kendi finansman\u0131n\u0131 yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan sa\u011flayabiliyor olmas\u0131, mevcut resesyon ve stagflasyon s\u00f6ylemlerinin oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemde son derece \u00f6nemli. Burada d\u0131\u015f ticari partnerlerin reel sekt\u00f6re g\u00fcveni a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
TL\u2019YE SAH\u0130P \u00c7IKMA ZAMANI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Gelelim reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn k\u0131sa vadeli net d\u00f6viz durumuna. May\u0131s 2022 d\u00f6neminde reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn k\u0131sa vadeli varl\u0131klar\u0131 145.520 milyon dolar iken, k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri 83.993 milyon dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. B\u00f6ylece, k\u0131sa vadeli net d\u00f6viz pozisyonu fazlas\u0131 61.527 milyon dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek, Nisan 2022 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re 1.436 milyon dolar artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. <\/span>
<\/span>
\u0130\u015fte sorun buradad\u0131r. Reel sekt\u00f6r daha \u00f6nce d\u00f6nem d\u00f6nem eksiye d\u00fc\u015fen k\u0131sa vadeli pozisyonlar yerine neden 61.527 milyon dolar, yani \u015fu an ihtiyac\u0131 olmayan bir bakiyeyi rezerv olarak tutma ihtiyac\u0131 hisseder ki? Sorun g\u00fcven mi? Yoksa ucuz sa\u011flanan TL kredileri enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in mi bu yol se\u00e7iliyor? <\/span>
<\/span>
Bu tarz davranan reel sekt\u00f6r fark\u0131na varmadan ekonomide \u015fu de\u011fi\u015fikliklere katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131:<\/span>
<\/span>
1. D\u00f6viz kurunun y\u00fckselmesi,<\/span>
<\/span>
2. Kura dayal\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fi,<\/span>
<\/span>
3. Artan fiyatlarla birlikte enflasyon y\u00fckseli\u015fi,<\/span>
<\/span>
4. Artan enflasyonla beraber enerji, i\u015f\u00e7ilik, hammadde ve kiralarda h\u0131zl\u0131 maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131,<\/span>
<\/span>
5. Zay\u0131flayan TL nedeniyle yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015finin aksamas\u0131 ve krediye ula\u015fma kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ortadan kalkmas\u0131.<\/span>
<\/span>
G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere; \u00f6nce do\u011fru yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 sand\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir karar, sonunda d\u00f6n\u00fcp bize kal\u0131c\u0131 ve daha a\u011f\u0131r zararlar veriyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
\u015eimdi ciddi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnme ve kendi param\u0131za sahip \u00e7\u0131kma zaman\u0131d\u0131r. Daha d\u00fcne kadar b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinde bile TL ile ticaret yap\u0131lmaya ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 unutulmamal\u0131. <\/span>
<\/span>
O y\u00fczden kur bir avantaj de\u011fil, bir enflasyon sarmal\u0131n\u0131n temelidir. Bunu ya\u015fayarak defalarca kez \u00f6\u011frendi\u011fimize g\u00f6re \u015fimdi milli param\u0131z\u0131 de\u011ferli tutarak yabanc\u0131 kaynaklar\u0131n \u00fclkemizi g\u00fcvenli liman olarak g\u00f6rmesini ve kaynak getirmesini sa\u011flama zaman\u0131d\u0131r. B\u00fcy\u00fcmek i\u00e7in buna \u015fiddetle ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z var.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"reel-sektorun-doviz-pozisyonlari","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u00f6viz pozisyonlar\u0131","meta_description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1086,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":34357,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":34258,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u00f6viz pozisyonlar\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

H\u0130KMET BAYDAR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankas\u0131, finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn oldu\u011fu gibi reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn de durumunu s\u00fcrekli kontrol eder. Gerek kredi ve g\u00fcven, gerekse ekonomi hakk\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerine kadar reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn bir\u00e7ok bilgisine ula\u015farak analiz eder. Bu analizlerden biri de finans kesim d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kurulu\u015flar\u0131n yani reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u00f6viz varl\u0131k ve y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleridir. <\/span>
<\/span>
Son zamanlarda bu konuda \u00e7ok fazla s\u00f6ylem oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in konuyu inceleyip d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerimizi sizlerle payla\u015fmak istedik.<\/span>
<\/span>
TCMB, \u2018Finansal Kesim D\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki Firmalar\u0131n D\u00f6viz Varl\u0131k ve Y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri\u2019 adl\u0131 May\u0131s 2022 tarihli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u00f6viz kompozisyonunu ve geli\u015fimini rakamlar\u0131yla birlikte a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. May\u0131s 2022 d\u00f6nemine ait finansal kesim d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki firmalar\u0131n d\u00f6viz varl\u0131k ve y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri tablosu de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde; Nisan 2022 verilerine g\u00f6re varl\u0131klar\u0131n 2.539 milyon dolar, y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerin ise 647 milyon dolar artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Net d\u00f6viz pozisyonu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 105.803 milyon dolar\u0131 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini ve Nisan 2022 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re 1.893 milyon dolar azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. B\u00f6ylece toplamda reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn net d\u00f6viz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda azalma oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bor\u00e7 giri\u015fleri kay\u0131t alt\u0131na al\u0131nan reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn bu bor\u00e7 sayesinde elde edece\u011fi nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 hen\u00fcz kay\u0131t alt\u0131na al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan burada hep eksi rakam\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmemiz son derece do\u011fald\u0131r.<\/span>
<\/span>
DI\u015e T\u0130CAR\u0130 PARTNERLER<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
\u015eimdi biraz daha detaya inelim ve May\u0131s 2022 d\u00f6nemi varl\u0131k da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 inceleyelim. Bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re ihracat alacaklar\u0131 <\/span>
767 milyon dolar azal\u0131rken, yurt i\u00e7i bankalardaki mevduat ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na do\u011frudan sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131yla 3.186 milyon dolar ve 83 milyon dolar artm\u0131\u015f ve sonu\u00e7 olarak varl\u0131klar 2.539 milyon dolar artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Burada dikkatinizi \u00f6zellikle yurt i\u00e7i bankalarda artan d\u00f6viz mevduata \u00e7ekmek istiyoruz ve artan d\u00f6viz mevduat\u0131n 3.186 milyon dolar oldu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyoruz. Y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fck da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda ise bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re yurt i\u00e7inden sa\u011flanan nakdi krediler 777 milyon dolar azal\u0131rken, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan sa\u011flanan nakdi krediler ve ithalat bor\u00e7lar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131yla 850 milyon dolar ve 574 milyon dolar artm\u0131\u015f ve bunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckler 647 milyon dolar artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle ithalat bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bir nevi piyasa kredisi oldu\u011funu ve firmalar\u0131n kredi ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azaltan bir etki yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da unutmamal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/span>
<\/span>
Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn kendi finansman\u0131n\u0131 yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan sa\u011flayabiliyor olmas\u0131, mevcut resesyon ve stagflasyon s\u00f6ylemlerinin oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemde son derece \u00f6nemli. Burada d\u0131\u015f ticari partnerlerin reel sekt\u00f6re g\u00fcveni a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
TL\u2019YE SAH\u0130P \u00c7IKMA ZAMANI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Gelelim reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn k\u0131sa vadeli net d\u00f6viz durumuna. May\u0131s 2022 d\u00f6neminde reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn k\u0131sa vadeli varl\u0131klar\u0131 145.520 milyon dolar iken, k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri 83.993 milyon dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. B\u00f6ylece, k\u0131sa vadeli net d\u00f6viz pozisyonu fazlas\u0131 61.527 milyon dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek, Nisan 2022 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re 1.436 milyon dolar artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. <\/span>
<\/span>
\u0130\u015fte sorun buradad\u0131r. Reel sekt\u00f6r daha \u00f6nce d\u00f6nem d\u00f6nem eksiye d\u00fc\u015fen k\u0131sa vadeli pozisyonlar yerine neden 61.527 milyon dolar, yani \u015fu an ihtiyac\u0131 olmayan bir bakiyeyi rezerv olarak tutma ihtiyac\u0131 hisseder ki? Sorun g\u00fcven mi? Yoksa ucuz sa\u011flanan TL kredileri enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in mi bu yol se\u00e7iliyor? <\/span>
<\/span>
Bu tarz davranan reel sekt\u00f6r fark\u0131na varmadan ekonomide \u015fu de\u011fi\u015fikliklere katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131:<\/span>
<\/span>
1. D\u00f6viz kurunun y\u00fckselmesi,<\/span>
<\/span>
2. Kura dayal\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fi,<\/span>
<\/span>
3. Artan fiyatlarla birlikte enflasyon y\u00fckseli\u015fi,<\/span>
<\/span>
4. Artan enflasyonla beraber enerji, i\u015f\u00e7ilik, hammadde ve kiralarda h\u0131zl\u0131 maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131,<\/span>
<\/span>
5. Zay\u0131flayan TL nedeniyle yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015finin aksamas\u0131 ve krediye ula\u015fma kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ortadan kalkmas\u0131.<\/span>
<\/span>
G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere; \u00f6nce do\u011fru yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 sand\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir karar, sonunda d\u00f6n\u00fcp bize kal\u0131c\u0131 ve daha a\u011f\u0131r zararlar veriyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
\u015eimdi ciddi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnme ve kendi param\u0131za sahip \u00e7\u0131kma zaman\u0131d\u0131r. Daha d\u00fcne kadar b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinde bile TL ile ticaret yap\u0131lmaya ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 unutulmamal\u0131. <\/span>
<\/span>
O y\u00fczden kur bir avantaj de\u011fil, bir enflasyon sarmal\u0131n\u0131n temelidir. Bunu ya\u015fayarak defalarca kez \u00f6\u011frendi\u011fimize g\u00f6re \u015fimdi milli param\u0131z\u0131 de\u011ferli tutarak yabanc\u0131 kaynaklar\u0131n \u00fclkemizi g\u00fcvenli liman olarak g\u00f6rmesini ve kaynak getirmesini sa\u011flama zaman\u0131d\u0131r. B\u00fcy\u00fcmek i\u00e7in buna \u015fiddetle ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z var.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"reel-sektorun-doviz-pozisyonlari","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn d\u00f6viz pozisyonlar\u0131","meta_description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1086,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}