{"status":true,"post":{"id":20305,"user_id":1,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:50:23","created_at":"2019-05-05T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:50:23.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":20305,"is_featured":0,"title":"Petrol, n\u00fckleer denklemi ve T\u00fcrkiye","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">\u00dc\u00e7 ortamda karar veriyoruz. Birincisi belirlilik ortam\u0131. Ama o ortam\u0131 hele i\u015f ortam\u0131nda bulmak kolay de\u011fil. \u0130kincisi belirsizlik ortam\u0131. Hi\u00e7 bir fikrim yok anlam\u0131nda. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc de risk ortam\u0131nda...<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Karar vericilerin, \u00f6ncelikle belirsizlikleri riske, riski de belirlili\u011fe \u00e7evirmesi gerekir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc riski ancak b\u00f6yle y\u00f6netebilirler. Onun i\u00e7in y\u00f6neticilerin ilk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u015fey, \u2018belirsizli\u011fi nas\u0131l riske \u00e7eviririm\u2019 olur. Belirsizli\u011fi riske \u00e7evirebilmenin tek yolu senaryo yazmak. \u00d6nce d\u00fcnya, sonra \u00fclke, sonra da sekt\u00f6r ve firman\u0131z i\u00e7in...<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u0130yimser, k\u00f6t\u00fcmser ve en olas\u0131 senaryolar\u0131 yaz\u0131p, plan yapmak ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olman\u0131n yoludur. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Zihninizde kurdu\u011funuz senaryolar\u0131n hi\u00e7biri tam tutmasa bile siz en az\u0131ndan rakiplerinize g\u00f6re daha haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131, bir ad\u0131m \u00f6nde olursunuz. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc oynak i\u015f ortam\u0131nda bir ad\u0131m \u00f6nde olmak ise \u00e7ok \u015feydir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"xx-large\" style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya ile ilgili senaryo yazarken, ilk bak\u0131lacak alan enerjidir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Kuruyemi\u015f i\u015fiyle u\u011fra\u015fsak da demir \u00e7elik \u00fcretsek de bizi etkiler. Enerji, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli ticaret kalemlerinden biri. Yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Enerji dedi\u011fimiz zaman, daha \u00e7ok do\u011falgaz ve petrolden bahsediyoruz. Yenilenebilir enerjideki h\u0131zl\u0131 geli\u015fmeye ra\u011fmen, petrol ve do\u011falgaz bug\u00fcn ticarete konu olan enerjinin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazla. Her ne kadar 1970\u2019lerdeki y\u00fczde 50\u2019lerdeki pay\u0131 gerilemi\u015f olsa da petrol bug\u00fcn enerjinin \u00fc\u00e7te birini tek ba\u015f\u0131na olu\u015fturuyor. K\u00f6m\u00fcr y\u00fczde 27, do\u011falgaz y\u00fczde 23 paya sahip. H\u0131zl\u0131 geli\u015fmeye ra\u011fmen, g\u00fcne\u015f, r\u00fczgar gibi yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131 ise hen\u00fcz y\u00fczde 3.6.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"xx-large\" style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bug\u00fcnlerde d\u00fcnya enerji piyasas\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Venez\u00fcella ve Libya\u2019da ya\u015fananlar i\u015fin bir boyutu. \u015eu s\u0131ralar petrol piyasas\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen en \u00f6nemli geli\u015fme ise \u0130ran ile ilgili ya\u015fananlar. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Durum \u015f\u00f6yle geli\u015fti:<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkan olmas\u0131ndan sonra, ABD \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik tavr\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Bu 18 Aral\u0131k 2017\u2019de ilan edilen Amerikan Milli G\u00fcvenlik Belgesi\u2019nde a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a yaz\u0131ld\u0131: \u201cOrta Do\u011fu\u2019da bar\u0131\u015f ve refah\u0131 engelleyen temel istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k kayna\u011f\u0131 \u0130srail-Filistin meselesi de\u011fil, ter\u00f6r kayna\u011f\u0131 olan \u0130ran\u2019d\u0131r\u201d diye... <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Zaten bu i\u015flerden anlayanlar, daha Trump se\u00e7ilmeden bile ABD\u2019de \u2018kapsay\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil, d\u0131\u015flay\u0131c\u0131 politikalar\u0131n \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u2019 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyordu. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Rusya ve \u00c7in \u2018d\u00fc\u015fman\u2019, \u0130ran ise Kuzey Kore ile birlikte ABD\u2019yi tehdit eden \u00fclke olarak g\u00f6sterildi. Sonra da ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ekimde, bu \u00fclkeyle Obama\u2019n\u0131n imzalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015fmay\u0131 y\u0131rtt\u0131 att\u0131. Kendi s\u00f6zleriyle \u201c\u0130ran devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7lerine destek veren ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran ile yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 berbat bir anla\u015fmaya\u201d son verdi. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Son 9 ayd\u0131r, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. ABD, 2018 a\u011fustos ve kas\u0131m aylar\u0131nda iki a\u015famal\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Hedef, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131rlamak. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"xx-large\" style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u0130ran d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck 7\u2019nci petrol \u00fcreticisi. Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun da 3\u2019\u00fcnc\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fc\u011f\u00fc...<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00fcnde 2.3 milyon varil petrol ihra\u00e7 ediyordu. Bu miktar ABD\u2019nin di\u011fer \u00fclkeleri de kat\u0131lmaya zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar sonucunda 1 milyon varile kadar indi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u015eimdi ABD, bu miktar\u0131 daha da azaltmak i\u00e7in bast\u0131r\u0131yor. \u0130lk etapta 8 \u00fclkeyi \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik petrol yapt\u0131r\u0131mlardan muaf tutmu\u015ftu. \u00c7in, Hindistan, Japonya, T\u00fcrkiye, G\u00fcney Kore, \u0130talya, Yunanistan ve Tayvan \u0130ran\u2019dan 180 g\u00fcn s\u00fcreyle petrol almaya devam edebileceklerdi. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ancak bu muafiyetin s\u00fcresi 2 May\u0131s\u2019ta doldu. ABD, \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol al\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in verilen izni uzatmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 75.59 dolara kadar y\u00fckseldi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Muaf tutulan Yunanistan, \u0130talya ve Tayvan bu arada \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 kesti. Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u0130ran\u2019dan yakla\u015f\u0131k g\u00fcnde 360 bin varil petrol ithal eden \u00c7in ise ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara uymayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. G\u00fcnde 300 bin varil ithal eden Hindistan\u2019\u0131n da \u0130ran\u2019dan al\u0131m\u0131 tamamen kesmesi beklenmiyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"xx-large\" style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye de bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli miktarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Muafiyetin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Kas\u0131m 2018\u2019den Ocak sonuna kadar \u0130ran\u2019dan toplam 485 bin 214 ton ham petrol ithal etti. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Buna g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol ithalat\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde g\u00fcnde 60 bin varilden 30 bin varil seviyesine geriledi. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Daha geni\u015f bir d\u00f6nemi dikkate al\u0131rsak, bir d\u00f6nem toplam petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 50\u2019ye yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019dan temin eden T\u00fcrkiye bu oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin alt\u0131na \u00e7ekti. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u015eimdi T\u00fcrkiye bu karar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesi i\u00e7in u\u011fra\u015f\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en hafta, T\u00fcpra\u015f rafinerisinin \u0130ran petrol\u00fcne uygun oldu\u011funu belirten D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc Hami Aksoy, ABD\u2019yi ikna etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"xx-large\" style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Peki \u0130ran bu s\u00fcre\u00e7ten nas\u0131l etkileniyor?<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00dclkenin b\u00fct\u00e7esinin kimi kaynaklara g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 70\u2019i, kimilerine g\u00f6re daha fazlas\u0131 petrole ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Daha da \u00f6nemlisi, \u0130ran nas\u0131l bir tepki verecek? Artaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnen gerginlik, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar m\u0131?<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u0130ran petrol end\u00fcstrisinde 30 y\u0131la yak\u0131n g\u00f6rev alm\u0131\u015f Dr. Parviz Mina\u2019n\u0131n BBC\u2019de ge\u00e7enlerde yer alan s\u00f6yle\u015fisi bu konuda epey ipucu ta\u015f\u0131yordu. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u0130ran, \u201cpetrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131, ABD\u2019nin kendi petrol end\u00fcstrisini desteklemek i\u00e7in tetikledi\u011fini\u201d \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Petrol \u0130hra\u00e7 Eden \u00dclkeler \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (OPEC) kurucular\u0131 aras\u0131nda yer alan Dr. Mina, OPEC s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc iken ABD taraf\u0131ndan \u2018k\u00f6t\u00fc adam\u2019 ilan edilmi\u015f bir isim. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 Humeyni y\u00f6netimi sonras\u0131 terk etmi\u015f. 15 y\u0131l y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc OPEC y\u00f6neticili\u011fini de b\u0131rakarak Paris\u2019te dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k yapmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f. Mina\u2019n\u0131n yorumunu \u015f\u00f6yle \u00f6zetlemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn:<\/span><\/p>  <ul>   <li><span class=\"large\">Trump askeri olarak \u0130ran\u2019a sava\u015f a\u00e7am\u0131yor. Ekonomik ara\u00e7lar\u0131 jeopolitik kazan\u0131mlar elde etmek i\u00e7in daha yo\u011fun olarak kullan\u0131yor. Bu nedenle y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. <\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\">Bu yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar \u0130ran\u2019da hayat\u0131 etkiler. \u015eu andaki g\u00fcnl\u00fck 800 bin varil ihracat daha da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya inerse 80 milyonluk \u00fclke iflasa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenir. \u00dclkenin b\u00fct\u00e7esinin y\u00fczde 70-80\u2019i petrole ba\u011fl\u0131. <\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\">\u0130ran bu ambargo nedeniyle y\u00fcksek bedel \u00f6deyecek. Orta s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 yoksulla\u015facak. Ya sonunda bir patlama olur ya da bir \u00e7ok \u0130ranl\u0131 i\u00e7in yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6\u00e7mek tek umut haline gelir. <\/span><\/li>  <\/ul>  <p><span class=\"xx-large\" style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Akl\u0131na fikrine g\u00fcvenilebilecek analistler, bug\u00fcne kadar \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na petrol sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1 milyon varilin alt\u0131na inmesinin \u2018ABD i\u00e7in teselli e\u015fi\u011fi\u2019 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. 2 May\u0131s\u2019tan sonra da s\u0131f\u0131r sat\u0131\u015f hedefinin zor oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. \u00c7in ve Hindistan ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalsa bile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n 800 bin varilin alt\u0131na inmesi zor. \u0130ran i\u00e7in \u00e7izilen en k\u00f6t\u00fcmser senaryo g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n 500 bin varile d\u00fc\u015fmesi...<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">B\u00f6yle bir durumda da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatarak, d\u00fcnya petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla y\u00fckseltecek bir hamlede bulunmas\u0131 \u2018d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k\u2019 olarak g\u00f6rmekle birlikte, analistler \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgede sular\u0131 daha da \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131racak ad\u0131mlar atabilece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Tarih tekerr\u00fcrden ibaret de\u011fil ama bize petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde ekonomi ve siyasi risklerin de artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde, petrol ithal eden geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde, ekonomik ve siyasi risklerde belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f beklenebilir. Etkiler bununla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da kalmayabilir. Jeopolitik ve ekonomik bir \u00e7ok yeni pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131labilir. A\u00e7\u0131k ki, d\u00fcn\u00fcn dengeleri bug\u00fcn art\u0131k yok. \u00d6rne\u011fin, kimi analistlere g\u00f6re ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ambargo \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00f6lgedeki ekonomik etkisini daha da art\u0131r\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel d\u00fczenin yeniden yap\u0131lanma ihtiyac\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye gelince... T\u00fcrkiye, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kom\u015fusu... Ne \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer bomba yapmas\u0131n\u0131 ister, ne de b\u00f6ylesine y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara ne de bir askeri m\u00fcdahaleye maruz kalmas\u0131n\u0131...<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">B\u00f6lgede ister uzun, ister orta, isterse k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce ya\u015fanan her t\u00fcr d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan m\u00fcdahalenin etkilerini hala \u00fczerinde olanca a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile hisseden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00e7evresindeki ba\u015fkentlerle ili\u015fkilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek istemesinden, dayatmalara da kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131ndan daha do\u011fal bir \u015fey yok. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>YEN\u0130 7 KIZ KARDE\u015eLER ULUSAL PETROL \u015e\u0130RKETLER\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Son d\u00f6nemde devletlerin petrol piyasalar\u0131ndaki konumu, petrol end\u00fcstrisinin efsane yedi k\u0131z karde\u015finin hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131 epey t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi. Ulusal petrol \u015firketleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">1950 ile 1980 aras\u0131nda d\u00fcnya petrol piyasas\u0131 bir kartel gibi faaliyet g\u00f6steren yedi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketin denetimindeydi. Say\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen birle\u015fme ve devirlerle bu y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda be\u015fe indi. Bug\u00fcn petrol piyasas\u0131nda etkin d\u00f6rt b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firket Exxon-Mobil, Shell, BP ve Chevron olarak s\u0131ralan\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Yeni d\u00f6nemin yedi k\u0131z karde\u015fi ise \u015f\u00f6yle s\u0131ralan\u0131yor: China National Petroleum Corparation (\u00c7in), Gazprom (Rusya), National Iran\u0131nian Oil Company (\u0130ran) , Petrobakbrezilya PDVSA Vnez\u00fcela (Venez\u00fcella), Petronas (Malezya) ve Saudi Aramco (Suudi Arabistan)<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>AMBARGO VE PETROL \u0130HRACI YAN YANA S\u00dcREB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u015eu s\u0131ralarda, b\u00fcy\u00fck devletlerin de taraf oldu\u011fu ciddi i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klar ya\u015fayan Venez\u00fcella 300 milyar varil ile d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck rezervlerine sahip. Yeterince yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015fu anda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck oyuncu. Uzmanlara g\u00f6re bir s\u00fcre daha b\u00f6yle kalabilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00fclke arama ve rafinaj faaliyetleri yapamayacak kadar kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k . Libya da benzer bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 ya\u015f\u0131yor. Ancak petrol sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan durum farkl\u0131. Al\u0131c\u0131lar \u00fclkedeki sisteme pek ald\u0131rm\u0131yor. Bu \u0130ran i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli. Ambargolu \u00fclke olmaya da petrol sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapmaya da devam edebilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>PETROL F\u0130YATLARI NE OLUR?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, Venez\u00fcella\u2019daki geli\u015fmeler, d\u00fcnya jeopoliti\u011finde tansiyonun artmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak kimi uzmanlar petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rebilece\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ancak genel olarak beklenti pek \u00f6yle de\u011fil. Projeksiyonlar 60-70 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor. Nitekim fiyatlar ABD\u2019nin istisnalar\u0131 kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131ndan sonra \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 75 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131na geriledi. Bunda Trump\u2019\u0131n OPEC\u2019e \u2018\u00fcretimi art\u0131rma\u2019 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 da etkili oldu. Ayr\u0131ca, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselince, ABD\u2019de kaya\u00e7 petrol\u00fc ve kaya gaz\u0131 \u00fcretimi h\u0131zlan\u0131yor. Son d\u00f6nemde de ABD\u2019de petrol \u00fcretiminde rekor ya\u015fan\u0131yor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcretim 12.3 milyon varile \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan OPEC rakamlar\u0131 da ge\u00e7en aya g\u00f6re \u00fcretimde g\u00fcnl\u00fck 25 bin varil art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00dcretimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klayan Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da hen\u00fcz bu y\u00f6nde harekete ge\u00e7medi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. D\u00fcnya ticaretinin yava\u015flamas\u0131 da petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Petrol piyasas\u0131 \u00e7evreleri, fiyatlarda kritik s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 50 dolar oldu\u011funu kaydediyor. Bu noktadan sonras\u0131 kaya gaz\u0131n\u0131 karl\u0131 hale getiriyor. Bir \u00e7ok analist, hem \u00fcretici hem t\u00fcketici i\u00e7in makul olan petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 70 dolar seviyesinde olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Birincil enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 70\u2019ini ithal eden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ge\u00e7en y\u0131l enerji ithalat\u0131 faturas\u0131 43 milyar dolar oldu.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"petrol-nukleer-denklemi-ve-turkiye","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Petrol, n\u00fckleer denklemi ve T\u00fcrkiye","meta_description":"Hakan G\u00fclda\u011f","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1113,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":1,"name":"HAKAN","surname":"G\u00dcLDA\u011e","email":"uakisik@eronat.com.tr","slug":"hakan-guldag","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600kKPzKvWx8Xpxx9n.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T14:51:32.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":20404,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":20305,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Petrol, n\u00fckleer denklemi ve T\u00fcrkiye","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">\u00dc\u00e7 ortamda karar veriyoruz. Birincisi belirlilik ortam\u0131. Ama o ortam\u0131 hele i\u015f ortam\u0131nda bulmak kolay de\u011fil. \u0130kincisi belirsizlik ortam\u0131. Hi\u00e7 bir fikrim yok anlam\u0131nda. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc de risk ortam\u0131nda...<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Karar vericilerin, \u00f6ncelikle belirsizlikleri riske, riski de belirlili\u011fe \u00e7evirmesi gerekir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc riski ancak b\u00f6yle y\u00f6netebilirler. Onun i\u00e7in y\u00f6neticilerin ilk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u015fey, \u2018belirsizli\u011fi nas\u0131l riske \u00e7eviririm\u2019 olur. Belirsizli\u011fi riske \u00e7evirebilmenin tek yolu senaryo yazmak. \u00d6nce d\u00fcnya, sonra \u00fclke, sonra da sekt\u00f6r ve firman\u0131z i\u00e7in...<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u0130yimser, k\u00f6t\u00fcmser ve en olas\u0131 senaryolar\u0131 yaz\u0131p, plan yapmak ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olman\u0131n yoludur. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Zihninizde kurdu\u011funuz senaryolar\u0131n hi\u00e7biri tam tutmasa bile siz en az\u0131ndan rakiplerinize g\u00f6re daha haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131, bir ad\u0131m \u00f6nde olursunuz. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc oynak i\u015f ortam\u0131nda bir ad\u0131m \u00f6nde olmak ise \u00e7ok \u015feydir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"xx-large\" style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya ile ilgili senaryo yazarken, ilk bak\u0131lacak alan enerjidir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Kuruyemi\u015f i\u015fiyle u\u011fra\u015fsak da demir \u00e7elik \u00fcretsek de bizi etkiler. Enerji, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli ticaret kalemlerinden biri. Yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Enerji dedi\u011fimiz zaman, daha \u00e7ok do\u011falgaz ve petrolden bahsediyoruz. Yenilenebilir enerjideki h\u0131zl\u0131 geli\u015fmeye ra\u011fmen, petrol ve do\u011falgaz bug\u00fcn ticarete konu olan enerjinin yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazla. Her ne kadar 1970\u2019lerdeki y\u00fczde 50\u2019lerdeki pay\u0131 gerilemi\u015f olsa da petrol bug\u00fcn enerjinin \u00fc\u00e7te birini tek ba\u015f\u0131na olu\u015fturuyor. K\u00f6m\u00fcr y\u00fczde 27, do\u011falgaz y\u00fczde 23 paya sahip. H\u0131zl\u0131 geli\u015fmeye ra\u011fmen, g\u00fcne\u015f, r\u00fczgar gibi yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131 ise hen\u00fcz y\u00fczde 3.6.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"xx-large\" style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bug\u00fcnlerde d\u00fcnya enerji piyasas\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Venez\u00fcella ve Libya\u2019da ya\u015fananlar i\u015fin bir boyutu. \u015eu s\u0131ralar petrol piyasas\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen en \u00f6nemli geli\u015fme ise \u0130ran ile ilgili ya\u015fananlar. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Durum \u015f\u00f6yle geli\u015fti:<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkan olmas\u0131ndan sonra, ABD \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik tavr\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Bu 18 Aral\u0131k 2017\u2019de ilan edilen Amerikan Milli G\u00fcvenlik Belgesi\u2019nde a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a yaz\u0131ld\u0131: \u201cOrta Do\u011fu\u2019da bar\u0131\u015f ve refah\u0131 engelleyen temel istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k kayna\u011f\u0131 \u0130srail-Filistin meselesi de\u011fil, ter\u00f6r kayna\u011f\u0131 olan \u0130ran\u2019d\u0131r\u201d diye... <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Zaten bu i\u015flerden anlayanlar, daha Trump se\u00e7ilmeden bile ABD\u2019de \u2018kapsay\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil, d\u0131\u015flay\u0131c\u0131 politikalar\u0131n \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u2019 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyordu. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Rusya ve \u00c7in \u2018d\u00fc\u015fman\u2019, \u0130ran ise Kuzey Kore ile birlikte ABD\u2019yi tehdit eden \u00fclke olarak g\u00f6sterildi. Sonra da ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ekimde, bu \u00fclkeyle Obama\u2019n\u0131n imzalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015fmay\u0131 y\u0131rtt\u0131 att\u0131. Kendi s\u00f6zleriyle \u201c\u0130ran devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7lerine destek veren ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran ile yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 berbat bir anla\u015fmaya\u201d son verdi. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Son 9 ayd\u0131r, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. ABD, 2018 a\u011fustos ve kas\u0131m aylar\u0131nda iki a\u015famal\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Hedef, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131rlamak. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"xx-large\" style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u0130ran d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck 7\u2019nci petrol \u00fcreticisi. Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun da 3\u2019\u00fcnc\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fc\u011f\u00fc...<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00fcnde 2.3 milyon varil petrol ihra\u00e7 ediyordu. Bu miktar ABD\u2019nin di\u011fer \u00fclkeleri de kat\u0131lmaya zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar sonucunda 1 milyon varile kadar indi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u015eimdi ABD, bu miktar\u0131 daha da azaltmak i\u00e7in bast\u0131r\u0131yor. \u0130lk etapta 8 \u00fclkeyi \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik petrol yapt\u0131r\u0131mlardan muaf tutmu\u015ftu. \u00c7in, Hindistan, Japonya, T\u00fcrkiye, G\u00fcney Kore, \u0130talya, Yunanistan ve Tayvan \u0130ran\u2019dan 180 g\u00fcn s\u00fcreyle petrol almaya devam edebileceklerdi. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ancak bu muafiyetin s\u00fcresi 2 May\u0131s\u2019ta doldu. ABD, \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol al\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in verilen izni uzatmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 75.59 dolara kadar y\u00fckseldi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Muaf tutulan Yunanistan, \u0130talya ve Tayvan bu arada \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 kesti. Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u0130ran\u2019dan yakla\u015f\u0131k g\u00fcnde 360 bin varil petrol ithal eden \u00c7in ise ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara uymayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. G\u00fcnde 300 bin varil ithal eden Hindistan\u2019\u0131n da \u0130ran\u2019dan al\u0131m\u0131 tamamen kesmesi beklenmiyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"xx-large\" style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye de bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli miktarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Muafiyetin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Kas\u0131m 2018\u2019den Ocak sonuna kadar \u0130ran\u2019dan toplam 485 bin 214 ton ham petrol ithal etti. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Buna g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019dan petrol ithalat\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde g\u00fcnde 60 bin varilden 30 bin varil seviyesine geriledi. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Daha geni\u015f bir d\u00f6nemi dikkate al\u0131rsak, bir d\u00f6nem toplam petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 50\u2019ye yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019dan temin eden T\u00fcrkiye bu oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin alt\u0131na \u00e7ekti. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u015eimdi T\u00fcrkiye bu karar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesi i\u00e7in u\u011fra\u015f\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en hafta, T\u00fcpra\u015f rafinerisinin \u0130ran petrol\u00fcne uygun oldu\u011funu belirten D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc Hami Aksoy, ABD\u2019yi ikna etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"xx-large\" style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Peki \u0130ran bu s\u00fcre\u00e7ten nas\u0131l etkileniyor?<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00dclkenin b\u00fct\u00e7esinin kimi kaynaklara g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 70\u2019i, kimilerine g\u00f6re daha fazlas\u0131 petrole ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Daha da \u00f6nemlisi, \u0130ran nas\u0131l bir tepki verecek? Artaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnen gerginlik, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar m\u0131?<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u0130ran petrol end\u00fcstrisinde 30 y\u0131la yak\u0131n g\u00f6rev alm\u0131\u015f Dr. Parviz Mina\u2019n\u0131n BBC\u2019de ge\u00e7enlerde yer alan s\u00f6yle\u015fisi bu konuda epey ipucu ta\u015f\u0131yordu. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u0130ran, \u201cpetrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131, ABD\u2019nin kendi petrol end\u00fcstrisini desteklemek i\u00e7in tetikledi\u011fini\u201d \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Petrol \u0130hra\u00e7 Eden \u00dclkeler \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (OPEC) kurucular\u0131 aras\u0131nda yer alan Dr. Mina, OPEC s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc iken ABD taraf\u0131ndan \u2018k\u00f6t\u00fc adam\u2019 ilan edilmi\u015f bir isim. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 Humeyni y\u00f6netimi sonras\u0131 terk etmi\u015f. 15 y\u0131l y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc OPEC y\u00f6neticili\u011fini de b\u0131rakarak Paris\u2019te dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k yapmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f. Mina\u2019n\u0131n yorumunu \u015f\u00f6yle \u00f6zetlemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn:<\/span><\/p>  <ul>   <li><span class=\"large\">Trump askeri olarak \u0130ran\u2019a sava\u015f a\u00e7am\u0131yor. Ekonomik ara\u00e7lar\u0131 jeopolitik kazan\u0131mlar elde etmek i\u00e7in daha yo\u011fun olarak kullan\u0131yor. Bu nedenle y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. <\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\">Bu yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar \u0130ran\u2019da hayat\u0131 etkiler. \u015eu andaki g\u00fcnl\u00fck 800 bin varil ihracat daha da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya inerse 80 milyonluk \u00fclke iflasa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenir. \u00dclkenin b\u00fct\u00e7esinin y\u00fczde 70-80\u2019i petrole ba\u011fl\u0131. <\/span><\/li>   <li><span class=\"large\">\u0130ran bu ambargo nedeniyle y\u00fcksek bedel \u00f6deyecek. Orta s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 yoksulla\u015facak. Ya sonunda bir patlama olur ya da bir \u00e7ok \u0130ranl\u0131 i\u00e7in yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6\u00e7mek tek umut haline gelir. <\/span><\/li>  <\/ul>  <p><span class=\"xx-large\" style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Akl\u0131na fikrine g\u00fcvenilebilecek analistler, bug\u00fcne kadar \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na petrol sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1 milyon varilin alt\u0131na inmesinin \u2018ABD i\u00e7in teselli e\u015fi\u011fi\u2019 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. 2 May\u0131s\u2019tan sonra da s\u0131f\u0131r sat\u0131\u015f hedefinin zor oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. \u00c7in ve Hindistan ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalsa bile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n 800 bin varilin alt\u0131na inmesi zor. \u0130ran i\u00e7in \u00e7izilen en k\u00f6t\u00fcmser senaryo g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n 500 bin varile d\u00fc\u015fmesi...<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">B\u00f6yle bir durumda da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatarak, d\u00fcnya petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla y\u00fckseltecek bir hamlede bulunmas\u0131 \u2018d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k\u2019 olarak g\u00f6rmekle birlikte, analistler \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgede sular\u0131 daha da \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131racak ad\u0131mlar atabilece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Tarih tekerr\u00fcrden ibaret de\u011fil ama bize petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde ekonomi ve siyasi risklerin de artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde, petrol ithal eden geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde, ekonomik ve siyasi risklerde belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f beklenebilir. Etkiler bununla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da kalmayabilir. Jeopolitik ve ekonomik bir \u00e7ok yeni pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131labilir. A\u00e7\u0131k ki, d\u00fcn\u00fcn dengeleri bug\u00fcn art\u0131k yok. \u00d6rne\u011fin, kimi analistlere g\u00f6re ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ambargo \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00f6lgedeki ekonomik etkisini daha da art\u0131r\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel d\u00fczenin yeniden yap\u0131lanma ihtiyac\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye gelince... T\u00fcrkiye, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kom\u015fusu... Ne \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer bomba yapmas\u0131n\u0131 ister, ne de b\u00f6ylesine y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara ne de bir askeri m\u00fcdahaleye maruz kalmas\u0131n\u0131...<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">B\u00f6lgede ister uzun, ister orta, isterse k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce ya\u015fanan her t\u00fcr d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan m\u00fcdahalenin etkilerini hala \u00fczerinde olanca a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile hisseden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00e7evresindeki ba\u015fkentlerle ili\u015fkilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek istemesinden, dayatmalara da kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131ndan daha do\u011fal bir \u015fey yok. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>YEN\u0130 7 KIZ KARDE\u015eLER ULUSAL PETROL \u015e\u0130RKETLER\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Son d\u00f6nemde devletlerin petrol piyasalar\u0131ndaki konumu, petrol end\u00fcstrisinin efsane yedi k\u0131z karde\u015finin hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131 epey t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi. Ulusal petrol \u015firketleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">1950 ile 1980 aras\u0131nda d\u00fcnya petrol piyasas\u0131 bir kartel gibi faaliyet g\u00f6steren yedi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketin denetimindeydi. Say\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen birle\u015fme ve devirlerle bu y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda be\u015fe indi. Bug\u00fcn petrol piyasas\u0131nda etkin d\u00f6rt b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firket Exxon-Mobil, Shell, BP ve Chevron olarak s\u0131ralan\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Yeni d\u00f6nemin yedi k\u0131z karde\u015fi ise \u015f\u00f6yle s\u0131ralan\u0131yor: China National Petroleum Corparation (\u00c7in), Gazprom (Rusya), National Iran\u0131nian Oil Company (\u0130ran) , Petrobakbrezilya PDVSA Vnez\u00fcela (Venez\u00fcella), Petronas (Malezya) ve Saudi Aramco (Suudi Arabistan)<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>AMBARGO VE PETROL \u0130HRACI YAN YANA S\u00dcREB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u015eu s\u0131ralarda, b\u00fcy\u00fck devletlerin de taraf oldu\u011fu ciddi i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klar ya\u015fayan Venez\u00fcella 300 milyar varil ile d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck rezervlerine sahip. Yeterince yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015fu anda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck oyuncu. Uzmanlara g\u00f6re bir s\u00fcre daha b\u00f6yle kalabilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00fclke arama ve rafinaj faaliyetleri yapamayacak kadar kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k . Libya da benzer bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 ya\u015f\u0131yor. Ancak petrol sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan durum farkl\u0131. Al\u0131c\u0131lar \u00fclkedeki sisteme pek ald\u0131rm\u0131yor. Bu \u0130ran i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli. Ambargolu \u00fclke olmaya da petrol sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapmaya da devam edebilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>PETROL F\u0130YATLARI NE OLUR?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, Venez\u00fcella\u2019daki geli\u015fmeler, d\u00fcnya jeopoliti\u011finde tansiyonun artmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak kimi uzmanlar petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rebilece\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ancak genel olarak beklenti pek \u00f6yle de\u011fil. Projeksiyonlar 60-70 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor. Nitekim fiyatlar ABD\u2019nin istisnalar\u0131 kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131ndan sonra \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 75 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131na geriledi. Bunda Trump\u2019\u0131n OPEC\u2019e \u2018\u00fcretimi art\u0131rma\u2019 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 da etkili oldu. Ayr\u0131ca, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselince, ABD\u2019de kaya\u00e7 petrol\u00fc ve kaya gaz\u0131 \u00fcretimi h\u0131zlan\u0131yor. Son d\u00f6nemde de ABD\u2019de petrol \u00fcretiminde rekor ya\u015fan\u0131yor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcretim 12.3 milyon varile \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan OPEC rakamlar\u0131 da ge\u00e7en aya g\u00f6re \u00fcretimde g\u00fcnl\u00fck 25 bin varil art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00dcretimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klayan Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da hen\u00fcz bu y\u00f6nde harekete ge\u00e7medi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. D\u00fcnya ticaretinin yava\u015flamas\u0131 da petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Petrol piyasas\u0131 \u00e7evreleri, fiyatlarda kritik s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 50 dolar oldu\u011funu kaydediyor. Bu noktadan sonras\u0131 kaya gaz\u0131n\u0131 karl\u0131 hale getiriyor. Bir \u00e7ok analist, hem \u00fcretici hem t\u00fcketici i\u00e7in makul olan petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 70 dolar seviyesinde olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Birincil enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 70\u2019ini ithal eden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ge\u00e7en y\u0131l enerji ithalat\u0131 faturas\u0131 43 milyar dolar oldu.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"petrol-nukleer-denklemi-ve-turkiye","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Petrol, n\u00fckleer denklemi ve T\u00fcrkiye","meta_description":"Hakan G\u00fclda\u011f","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1113,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}