{"status":true,"post":{"id":35107,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 21:57:37","created_at":"2022-09-29T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T18:57:37.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":35107,"is_featured":0,"title":"OECD: Sava\u015f\u0131n faturas\u0131 katlan\u0131yor","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Ekonomik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi ve Kalk\u0131nma Te\u015fkilat\u0131 (OECD), her \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemde oldu\u011fu gibi yeni k\u00fcresel \u2018Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019nu yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Rapor, sava\u015f\u0131n katlanmakta olan maliyetlerine y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nemli saptamalar yaparak, k\u00fcresel ekonominin bilhassa t\u00fcketim ve ithalat a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir akt\u00f6r\u00fc olan Avrupa k\u0131tas\u0131nda artan sorunlar\u0131n k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkiledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz, gerek Latin Amerika, gerekse de Do\u011fu ve G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya, g\u00f6receli olarak Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ana ve art\u00e7\u0131 etkilerinden daha korunakl\u0131 durumda ve k\u00fcresel pandeminin yaralar\u0131n\u0131 da sar\u0131yor. Bununla birlikte, \u00c7in\u2019in konut kredisi piyasas\u0131ndaki ciddi \u00e7alkant\u0131lar ve \u2018s\u0131f\u0131r vaka\u2019 politikas\u0131n\u0131n getirdi\u011fi zorluklar, istisnai olarak \u00c7in ekonomisi i\u00e7in baz\u0131 zorluklar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/span>
<\/span>
K\u00dcRESEL B\u00dcY\u00dcME Y\u00dcZDE 3<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Bir \u00f6nceki haziran ay\u0131 raporunda, 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4 - 4.5 band\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclere i\u015faret eden OECD, sava\u015f\u0131n faturas\u0131 katland\u0131k\u00e7a, 2022 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fczde 3\u2019e \u00e7ekti. K\u00fcresel ekonomi-politi\u011fe dair belirsizliklerin 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na da sarkaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc ile 2023 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini de 0.75 puan azaltarak y\u00fczde 2.25\u2019e \u00e7ekmi\u015f durumda. T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 2022 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 3.7\u2019den y\u00fczde 5.4\u2019e y\u00fckselten OECD, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 da G20 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda ilk 3\u2019te, OECD \u00fcyesi \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda ise ilk 2\u2019de bitirece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. <\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in y\u0131l sonu enflasyon oran\u0131 tahmini ise y\u00fczde 71. Bununla birlikte, kas\u0131m ve aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndan itibaren T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE endekslerine dayal\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015f oranlar\u0131nda, enflasyon oranlar\u0131nda matematiksel d\u00fczeltmeler ba\u015flayacak. Bu nedenle, OECD\u2019nin y\u0131l sonu tahmini yukar\u0131da kalabilir. <\/span>
<\/span>
3 TEMEL R\u0130SK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
OECD\u2019nin \u00fczerinde durdu\u011fu 3 temel riskten ilki enerji krizine y\u00f6nelik. Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n, Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 t\u0131rmanan enerji krizinden en az \u015fekilde etkilenmesi i\u00e7in mutlaka talebi k\u0131smas\u0131 gerekiyor. E\u011fer, hane halk\u0131 ve sanayinin do\u011falgaz talebi y\u00f6netilemez ise ciddi enerji arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 olu\u015facak. Hatta, demir-\u00e7elik ve g\u00fcbre sekt\u00f6rlerinde Avrupa\u2019da kontak kapatan fabrika say\u0131s\u0131 her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn art\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc talep k\u0131s\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, anormal artm\u0131\u015f olan do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle pek \u00e7ok firma zararda ve bu tablo b\u00f6yle devam ederse, Avrupa\u2019da enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme riski t\u0131rmanabilir. OECD i\u00e7in ikinci temel risk, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke piyasalar\u0131. \u00d6nde gelen geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerde ve ne yaz\u0131k ki en az geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerde bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc s\u00fcrekli art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, \u00fclkelerin bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyemeyecek hale d\u00fc\u015fmelerinden korkuluyor. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomisi olan \u00c7in ekonomisinde konut piyasas\u0131nda artan riskler korkutuyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
HANE HALKI VE REEL SEKT\u00d6RE DESTEK <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
OECD\u2019nin i\u015faret etti\u011fi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc k\u00fcresel risk ise k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirinden kaynaklanan riskler. Evet, k\u00fcresel pandeminin etkisi azald\u0131k\u00e7a, k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirindeki problemler g\u00f6receli olarak azal\u0131yor; ancak k\u00fcresel pandemiye y\u00f6nelik her an de\u011fi\u015febilecek tablo ve sava\u015f\u0131n getirdi\u011fi belirsizliklere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirindeki riskler yeniden derinle\u015febilir. OECD, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olarak \u00f6nde gelen ekonomilerin hane halk\u0131na ve reel sekt\u00f6re mali destek vermesini, bu deste\u011fin de b\u00fct\u00e7e dengelerini sarsmayacak d\u00fczeyde kalmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyor. Bunun i\u00e7in konu\u015fulan oran, \u00fclkenin GSYH\u2019sinin y\u00fczde 5\u2019i kadar mali destek. Enerji ve g\u0131da g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ad\u0131na, bilhassa geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin enerji ve g\u0131da alan\u0131nda tasarrufa a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren politikalar geli\u015ftirmeleri de \u00f6neriliyor. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele konusunda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f para politikas\u0131 \u00f6nerisi ise genel manada bir ezber ve bu tedbirin kamu faiz y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc ve b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi hayli olumsuz etkiledi\u011finin herkes fark\u0131nda.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"oecd-savasin-faturasi-katlaniyor","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"OECD: Sava\u015f\u0131n faturas\u0131 katlan\u0131yor","meta_description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1096,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":35206,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":35107,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"OECD: Sava\u015f\u0131n faturas\u0131 katlan\u0131yor","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Ekonomik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi ve Kalk\u0131nma Te\u015fkilat\u0131 (OECD), her \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemde oldu\u011fu gibi yeni k\u00fcresel \u2018Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019nu yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Rapor, sava\u015f\u0131n katlanmakta olan maliyetlerine y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nemli saptamalar yaparak, k\u00fcresel ekonominin bilhassa t\u00fcketim ve ithalat a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir akt\u00f6r\u00fc olan Avrupa k\u0131tas\u0131nda artan sorunlar\u0131n k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkiledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz, gerek Latin Amerika, gerekse de Do\u011fu ve G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya, g\u00f6receli olarak Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ana ve art\u00e7\u0131 etkilerinden daha korunakl\u0131 durumda ve k\u00fcresel pandeminin yaralar\u0131n\u0131 da sar\u0131yor. Bununla birlikte, \u00c7in\u2019in konut kredisi piyasas\u0131ndaki ciddi \u00e7alkant\u0131lar ve \u2018s\u0131f\u0131r vaka\u2019 politikas\u0131n\u0131n getirdi\u011fi zorluklar, istisnai olarak \u00c7in ekonomisi i\u00e7in baz\u0131 zorluklar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/span>
<\/span>
K\u00dcRESEL B\u00dcY\u00dcME Y\u00dcZDE 3<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Bir \u00f6nceki haziran ay\u0131 raporunda, 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4 - 4.5 band\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclere i\u015faret eden OECD, sava\u015f\u0131n faturas\u0131 katland\u0131k\u00e7a, 2022 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fczde 3\u2019e \u00e7ekti. K\u00fcresel ekonomi-politi\u011fe dair belirsizliklerin 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na da sarkaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc ile 2023 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini de 0.75 puan azaltarak y\u00fczde 2.25\u2019e \u00e7ekmi\u015f durumda. T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 2022 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 3.7\u2019den y\u00fczde 5.4\u2019e y\u00fckselten OECD, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 da G20 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda ilk 3\u2019te, OECD \u00fcyesi \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda ise ilk 2\u2019de bitirece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. <\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in y\u0131l sonu enflasyon oran\u0131 tahmini ise y\u00fczde 71. Bununla birlikte, kas\u0131m ve aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndan itibaren T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE endekslerine dayal\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015f oranlar\u0131nda, enflasyon oranlar\u0131nda matematiksel d\u00fczeltmeler ba\u015flayacak. Bu nedenle, OECD\u2019nin y\u0131l sonu tahmini yukar\u0131da kalabilir. <\/span>
<\/span>
3 TEMEL R\u0130SK<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
OECD\u2019nin \u00fczerinde durdu\u011fu 3 temel riskten ilki enerji krizine y\u00f6nelik. Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n, Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 t\u0131rmanan enerji krizinden en az \u015fekilde etkilenmesi i\u00e7in mutlaka talebi k\u0131smas\u0131 gerekiyor. E\u011fer, hane halk\u0131 ve sanayinin do\u011falgaz talebi y\u00f6netilemez ise ciddi enerji arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 olu\u015facak. Hatta, demir-\u00e7elik ve g\u00fcbre sekt\u00f6rlerinde Avrupa\u2019da kontak kapatan fabrika say\u0131s\u0131 her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn art\u0131yor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc talep k\u0131s\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, anormal artm\u0131\u015f olan do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle pek \u00e7ok firma zararda ve bu tablo b\u00f6yle devam ederse, Avrupa\u2019da enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme riski t\u0131rmanabilir. OECD i\u00e7in ikinci temel risk, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke piyasalar\u0131. \u00d6nde gelen geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerde ve ne yaz\u0131k ki en az geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerde bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc s\u00fcrekli art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, \u00fclkelerin bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyemeyecek hale d\u00fc\u015fmelerinden korkuluyor. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomisi olan \u00c7in ekonomisinde konut piyasas\u0131nda artan riskler korkutuyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
HANE HALKI VE REEL SEKT\u00d6RE DESTEK <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
OECD\u2019nin i\u015faret etti\u011fi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc k\u00fcresel risk ise k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirinden kaynaklanan riskler. Evet, k\u00fcresel pandeminin etkisi azald\u0131k\u00e7a, k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirindeki problemler g\u00f6receli olarak azal\u0131yor; ancak k\u00fcresel pandemiye y\u00f6nelik her an de\u011fi\u015febilecek tablo ve sava\u015f\u0131n getirdi\u011fi belirsizliklere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirindeki riskler yeniden derinle\u015febilir. OECD, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olarak \u00f6nde gelen ekonomilerin hane halk\u0131na ve reel sekt\u00f6re mali destek vermesini, bu deste\u011fin de b\u00fct\u00e7e dengelerini sarsmayacak d\u00fczeyde kalmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyor. Bunun i\u00e7in konu\u015fulan oran, \u00fclkenin GSYH\u2019sinin y\u00fczde 5\u2019i kadar mali destek. Enerji ve g\u0131da g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ad\u0131na, bilhassa geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin enerji ve g\u0131da alan\u0131nda tasarrufa a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren politikalar geli\u015ftirmeleri de \u00f6neriliyor. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele konusunda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f para politikas\u0131 \u00f6nerisi ise genel manada bir ezber ve bu tedbirin kamu faiz y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc ve b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi hayli olumsuz etkiledi\u011finin herkes fark\u0131nda.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"oecd-savasin-faturasi-katlaniyor","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"OECD: Sava\u015f\u0131n faturas\u0131 katlan\u0131yor","meta_description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1096,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}