{"status":true,"post":{"id":73168,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":0,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2025-08-29 08:59:00","created_at":"2025-08-29T05:59:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2025-08-29T05:59:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2025-08-29 08:59:00","source_id":null,"post_id":73168,"is_featured":0,"title":"Nihai tarifeler, k\u00fcresel ekonomi ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat\u0131","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":"Nihai tarifeler, k\u00fcresel ekonomi ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat\u0131","sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"

ABD\u2019nin ithalatta ilave tarife uygulama hedefi, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck belirsizlik ve endi\u015fe yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. <\/em><\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

2 Nisan\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanan ilk tarife oranlar\u0131 sonras\u0131 belirsizlik ve endi\u015fe daha da artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Daha sonra ba\u015flayan ticaret m\u00fczakereleri sonras\u0131 7 A\u011fustos\u2019tan itibaren uygulanacak ilave tarifeler belirlendi. Nihai tarifeler korkulan\u0131n aksine daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oranlarda belirlendi. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak k\u00fcresel ekonomiye ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler azal\u0131rken, belirsizlikler de \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ortadan kalkt\u0131.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

1. ABD nihai tarife oranlar\u0131n\u0131 belirledi, 8 ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131 yapt\u0131 \u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

ABD, 9 Nisan\u2019dan itibaren ithalat yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkelerle ticaret m\u00fczakerelerine ba\u015flad\u0131. Bunlar i\u00e7inde Avrupa Birli\u011fi ve 7 \u00fclke ile ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131 yapt\u0131. Anla\u015fma uyar\u0131nca ABD, Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019ne y\u00fczde 15 tarife uygulayacakken, AB kar\u015f\u0131 tarife ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 6 ay erteledi. Anla\u015fma yap\u0131lan \u00fclkeler ise \u0130ngiltere (y\u00fczde 10 tarife), Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore (y\u00fczde 15 tarife), Vietnam (y\u00fczde 20 tarife), Filipinler ve Endonezya (y\u00fczde 19 tarife) oldu. \u00c7in\u2019le de bir \u00f6n anla\u015fma ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi. ABD ile \u00c7in, ticaret m\u00fczakerelerini 12 Kas\u0131m\u2019a kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. M\u00fczakere s\u00fcrecinde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 y\u00fczde 30 ilave tarife uygulan\u0131yor. ABD, Kanada\u2019ya y\u00fczde 35, Hindistan ve Brezilya\u2019ya y\u00fczde 50 tarife uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Meksika\u2019ya y\u00fczde 25 tarife uygulama karar\u0131 al\u0131n\u0131rken iki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda m\u00fczakereler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

2. K\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in resesyon ve yeniden enflasyon endi\u015feleri azald\u0131<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

ABD\u2019nin tarife uygulamas\u0131 hedefi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde yap\u0131lan bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ba\u015fta ABD olmak \u00fczere k\u00fcresel ekonomide resesyon endi\u015felerini ve enflasyonda yeniden art\u0131\u015f senaryosunu g\u00fcndeme getirdi. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 2.0-2.5 aras\u0131nda kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artt\u0131. Ancak a\u00e7\u0131klanan nihai tarife oranlar\u0131 ve di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin ABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 vergi uygulamayacak olmas\u0131yla (\u00c7in ve Kanada hari\u00e7) bir ticaret sava\u015f\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik uzakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri y\u00fczde 3 seviyesine kadar y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Enflasyon taraf\u0131nda ise endi\u015fe daha \u00e7ok ABD i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli kalmaya devam ediyor. Nihai tarifeler di\u011fer \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in enflasyonu art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etki yapmayacak. Merkez bankalar\u0131 da parasal gev\u015feme konusunda daha rahat olacak (ABD merkez bankas\u0131 hari\u00e7).<\/p>


<\/p>

3. D\u00fcnya ticaretinde yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

\u0130thalatta uygulanacak ilave tarifelerin do\u011frudan ilk etkisi d\u00fcnya mal ticareti \u00fczerinde oluyor. D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc, 2025 Nisan ay\u0131nda ilk a\u00e7\u0131klanan tarife oranlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya mal ticaretine ili\u015fkin 4 daralma senaryosu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re mal ticaretinin miktar olarak y\u00fczde 0.9 ile y\u00fczde 4.5 aras\u0131nda daralaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ancak y\u0131l\u0131n ilk ve ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde d\u00fcnya mal ticareti tarifeler \u00f6ncesi \u00f6nden y\u00fcklemeli sipari\u015flerle miktar baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterdi. Bu geli\u015fmeye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ve nihai tarifelerin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya mal ticareti i\u00e7in miktar olarak y\u00fczde 0.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini yap\u0131ld\u0131. Kuzey Amerika d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda daralma beklenen b\u00f6lge kalmad\u0131.<\/p>


<\/p>

4. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat\u0131 nas\u0131l etkilenecek<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

ABD\u2019nin uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 nihai tarifeler T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi 3 y\u00f6n\u00fc ile etkileyecek.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

\u0130lk olarak ABD, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00fczde 15 ilave tarife karar\u0131 ald\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye, ABD\u2019ye ihracat\u0131nda ilave y\u00fczde 15 vergi ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015facak. Avrupa Birli\u011fi \u00fclkelerine de y\u00fczde 15 tarife uygulanaca\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131n\u0131rsa ABD ile denk ticareti olan T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 15 puan ilave tarife y\u00fcksek kald\u0131. ABD pazar\u0131nda di\u011fer \u00fclkelere uygulanacak tarifeler de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu pazardaki rekabetini do\u011frudan etkileyecek. Hindistan (y\u00fczde 50) ve \u00c7in\u2019e (y\u00fczde 30 ge\u00e7ici) y\u00fcksek tarifeler geldi. Ba\u015fta Vietnam olmak \u00fczere ABD\u2019ye ihracat\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 artan Asya \u00fclkelerine y\u00fczde 19-20 tarife geldi. G\u00fcney Amerika \u00fclkelerine tarife daha \u00e7ok y\u00fczde 10 olarak uygulanacak. M\u0131s\u0131r, Fas, Suudi Arabistan ve BAE\u2019ye y\u00fczde 10 tarife a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Nihai tarifeler sonras\u0131 ABD\u2019nin ithalat\u0131nda \u00f6nemli kaymalar olacak. T\u00fcrkiye, \u00f6zellikle \u00c7in ve Hindistan\u2019\u0131n azalacak ihracat\u0131n\u0131 ikame etmeye y\u00f6nelmeli. Tarifelerin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye son etkisi ise ABD\u2019de y\u00fcksek tarifeyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015facak \u00fclkelerin bu pazardaki kay\u0131plar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 di\u011fer pazarlarda daha agresif olmas\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracatta daha zorlu rekabetle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Bunun ilk i\u015faretleri, AB pazar\u0131nda \u00c7in ve Hindistan\u2019\u0131n artan ihracat\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bir\u00e7ok pazar\u0131nda \u00c7in ve Hindistan\u2019la rekabeti artacakt\u0131r. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

Son S\u00f6z: <\/em><\/strong>ABD\u2019nin nihai tarifelerinin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin toplam ihracat\u0131 \u00fczerinde etkisi n\u00f6tr olacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>


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ABD\u2019nin ithalatta ilave tarife uygulama hedefi, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck belirsizlik ve endi\u015fe yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. <\/em><\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

2 Nisan\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanan ilk tarife oranlar\u0131 sonras\u0131 belirsizlik ve endi\u015fe daha da artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Daha sonra ba\u015flayan ticaret m\u00fczakereleri sonras\u0131 7 A\u011fustos\u2019tan itibaren uygulanacak ilave tarifeler belirlendi. Nihai tarifeler korkulan\u0131n aksine daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oranlarda belirlendi. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak k\u00fcresel ekonomiye ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler azal\u0131rken, belirsizlikler de \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ortadan kalkt\u0131.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

1. ABD nihai tarife oranlar\u0131n\u0131 belirledi, 8 ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131 yapt\u0131 \u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

ABD, 9 Nisan\u2019dan itibaren ithalat yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkelerle ticaret m\u00fczakerelerine ba\u015flad\u0131. Bunlar i\u00e7inde Avrupa Birli\u011fi ve 7 \u00fclke ile ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131 yapt\u0131. Anla\u015fma uyar\u0131nca ABD, Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019ne y\u00fczde 15 tarife uygulayacakken, AB kar\u015f\u0131 tarife ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 6 ay erteledi. Anla\u015fma yap\u0131lan \u00fclkeler ise \u0130ngiltere (y\u00fczde 10 tarife), Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore (y\u00fczde 15 tarife), Vietnam (y\u00fczde 20 tarife), Filipinler ve Endonezya (y\u00fczde 19 tarife) oldu. \u00c7in\u2019le de bir \u00f6n anla\u015fma ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi. ABD ile \u00c7in, ticaret m\u00fczakerelerini 12 Kas\u0131m\u2019a kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. M\u00fczakere s\u00fcrecinde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 y\u00fczde 30 ilave tarife uygulan\u0131yor. ABD, Kanada\u2019ya y\u00fczde 35, Hindistan ve Brezilya\u2019ya y\u00fczde 50 tarife uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Meksika\u2019ya y\u00fczde 25 tarife uygulama karar\u0131 al\u0131n\u0131rken iki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda m\u00fczakereler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

2. K\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in resesyon ve yeniden enflasyon endi\u015feleri azald\u0131<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

ABD\u2019nin tarife uygulamas\u0131 hedefi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde yap\u0131lan bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ba\u015fta ABD olmak \u00fczere k\u00fcresel ekonomide resesyon endi\u015felerini ve enflasyonda yeniden art\u0131\u015f senaryosunu g\u00fcndeme getirdi. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 2.0-2.5 aras\u0131nda kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artt\u0131. Ancak a\u00e7\u0131klanan nihai tarife oranlar\u0131 ve di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin ABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 vergi uygulamayacak olmas\u0131yla (\u00c7in ve Kanada hari\u00e7) bir ticaret sava\u015f\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik uzakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak d\u00fcnya ekonomisi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri y\u00fczde 3 seviyesine kadar y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Enflasyon taraf\u0131nda ise endi\u015fe daha \u00e7ok ABD i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli kalmaya devam ediyor. Nihai tarifeler di\u011fer \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in enflasyonu art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etki yapmayacak. Merkez bankalar\u0131 da parasal gev\u015feme konusunda daha rahat olacak (ABD merkez bankas\u0131 hari\u00e7).<\/p>


<\/p>

3. D\u00fcnya ticaretinde yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

\u0130thalatta uygulanacak ilave tarifelerin do\u011frudan ilk etkisi d\u00fcnya mal ticareti \u00fczerinde oluyor. D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc, 2025 Nisan ay\u0131nda ilk a\u00e7\u0131klanan tarife oranlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya mal ticaretine ili\u015fkin 4 daralma senaryosu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re mal ticaretinin miktar olarak y\u00fczde 0.9 ile y\u00fczde 4.5 aras\u0131nda daralaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ancak y\u0131l\u0131n ilk ve ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde d\u00fcnya mal ticareti tarifeler \u00f6ncesi \u00f6nden y\u00fcklemeli sipari\u015flerle miktar baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterdi. Bu geli\u015fmeye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ve nihai tarifelerin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya mal ticareti i\u00e7in miktar olarak y\u00fczde 0.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini yap\u0131ld\u0131. Kuzey Amerika d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda daralma beklenen b\u00f6lge kalmad\u0131.<\/p>


<\/p>

4. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat\u0131 nas\u0131l etkilenecek<\/em><\/strong><\/p>

ABD\u2019nin uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 nihai tarifeler T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi 3 y\u00f6n\u00fc ile etkileyecek.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

\u0130lk olarak ABD, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00fczde 15 ilave tarife karar\u0131 ald\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye, ABD\u2019ye ihracat\u0131nda ilave y\u00fczde 15 vergi ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015facak. Avrupa Birli\u011fi \u00fclkelerine de y\u00fczde 15 tarife uygulanaca\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131n\u0131rsa ABD ile denk ticareti olan T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 15 puan ilave tarife y\u00fcksek kald\u0131. ABD pazar\u0131nda di\u011fer \u00fclkelere uygulanacak tarifeler de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu pazardaki rekabetini do\u011frudan etkileyecek. Hindistan (y\u00fczde 50) ve \u00c7in\u2019e (y\u00fczde 30 ge\u00e7ici) y\u00fcksek tarifeler geldi. Ba\u015fta Vietnam olmak \u00fczere ABD\u2019ye ihracat\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 artan Asya \u00fclkelerine y\u00fczde 19-20 tarife geldi. G\u00fcney Amerika \u00fclkelerine tarife daha \u00e7ok y\u00fczde 10 olarak uygulanacak. M\u0131s\u0131r, Fas, Suudi Arabistan ve BAE\u2019ye y\u00fczde 10 tarife a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Nihai tarifeler sonras\u0131 ABD\u2019nin ithalat\u0131nda \u00f6nemli kaymalar olacak. T\u00fcrkiye, \u00f6zellikle \u00c7in ve Hindistan\u2019\u0131n azalacak ihracat\u0131n\u0131 ikame etmeye y\u00f6nelmeli. Tarifelerin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye son etkisi ise ABD\u2019de y\u00fcksek tarifeyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015facak \u00fclkelerin bu pazardaki kay\u0131plar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 di\u011fer pazarlarda daha agresif olmas\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracatta daha zorlu rekabetle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Bunun ilk i\u015faretleri, AB pazar\u0131nda \u00c7in ve Hindistan\u2019\u0131n artan ihracat\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bir\u00e7ok pazar\u0131nda \u00c7in ve Hindistan\u2019la rekabeti artacakt\u0131r. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

Son S\u00f6z: <\/em><\/strong>ABD\u2019nin nihai tarifelerinin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin toplam ihracat\u0131 \u00fczerinde etkisi n\u00f6tr olacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>


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