{"status":true,"post":{"id":12528,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:17:22","created_at":"2015-08-06T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:17:22.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":12528,"is_featured":0,"title":"Merkez Bankas\u0131 neler yapacak?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde finansal istikrar\u0131n korunmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli g\u00f6revler d\u00fc\u015fecek. Finansal istikrar\u0131 bozabilecek unsurlar\u0131, bunlar\u0131n etkilerini ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yapabileceklerini de\u011ferlendirelim.<\/span><\/p>

1 - FED\u2019\u0130N FA\u0130Z ARTI\u015eI VE SERMAYE \u00c7IKI\u015eLARI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Merkez Bankas\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 y\u0131ld\u0131r k\u00fcresel ekonomideki finansal ve parasal geni\u015flemenin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fleri ile \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ko\u015fullarda finansal istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yordu. Ancak k\u00fcresel mali ko\u015fullar h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fiyor.<\/span><\/p>

FED\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u015flamas\u0131 beklentisi ile birlikte geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerden sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ya\u015fanmaktad\u0131r. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin para birimleri 15 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferine gelirken d\u00f6viz rezervleri de azalmaktad\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye de ayn\u0131 geli\u015fmeler ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yad\u0131r. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 de\u011fer kaybederken, net sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ya\u015fanmaktad\u0131r. TC Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu yeni ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda FED\u2019in eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 da dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda finansal istikrar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ve T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek zorunda kalacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

2 - ERKEN SE\u00c7\u0130M VE ARTAN G\u00dcVENL\u0130K R\u0130SKLER\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

TC Merkez Bankas\u0131 2002\u2019den bu yana g\u00f6receli olarak daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 siyasi ve g\u00fcvenlik risklerinin oldu\u011fu ko\u015fullarda finansal istikrar\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yordu. Siyasi istikrarda 2011\u2019den bu yana bir erozyon olmakla birlikte bu erozyon TC Merkez Bankas\u0131 i\u00e7in ana risklerden biri haline gelmemi\u015fti. Ancak 7 Haziran se\u00e7imleri ard\u0131ndan bir erken se\u00e7im yap\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artmaktad\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca ter\u00f6r olaylar\u0131, \u0130\u015e\u0130D ve PKK ile m\u00fccadele ise T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fcvenlik risklerini art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. TC Merkez Bankas\u0131 belki de son 10 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek siyasi ve g\u00fcvenlik risklerinin oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemde finansal istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

3 - AZALAN D\u00d6V\u0130Z REZERVLER\u0130 VE BOZULAN CAR\u0130 A\u00c7IK F\u0130NANSMANI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye son 10 y\u0131lda yakla\u015f\u0131k 450 milyar dolar cari a\u00e7\u0131k verdi. Ancak bu d\u00f6nemdeki mevcut k\u00fcresel mali ko\u015fullar i\u00e7inde ucuz ve bol dolar likiditesi ile sa\u011flanan sermaye giri\u015fleri cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131n\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Hatta T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde cari a\u00e7\u0131k verirken, \u00fclkeye daha y\u00fcksek sermaye giri\u015fi oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz rezervleri de art\u0131yordu. Ancak 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 may\u0131s ay\u0131ndan itibaren k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar de\u011fi\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. De\u011fi\u015fim son bir y\u0131lda ise h\u0131zland\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck cari a\u00e7\u0131klar vermesine kar\u015f\u0131n sermaye giri\u015fleri tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131 zorla\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 mevcut d\u00f6viz rezervleri ile ve net hata noksan kalemi ile (kimli\u011fi belirsiz sermaye giri\u015fi) kar\u015f\u0131lamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n net d\u00f6viz rezervleri 22.9 milyar dolar ile uzun s\u00fcrelerin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerilemi\u015f durumda. TC Merkez Bankas\u0131 azalan d\u00f6viz rezervlerini artt\u0131racak ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131n\u0131 daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 hale getirecek ad\u0131mlar\u0131 atarak finansal istikrar\u0131 korumak zorunda kalacak.<\/span><\/p>

4 - MOODY\u2019S KRED\u0130 NOTU DE\u011eERLEND\u0130RMES\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye, Moody\u2019s ve Fitch kredi derecelendirme kurumlar\u0131ndan yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir kredi notuna sahip <\/span>bulunuyor. Moody\u2019s son iki de\u011ferlendirmesini pas ge\u00e7mi\u015fti. <\/span>
7 A\u011fustos tarihinde yeni bir de\u011ferlendirme yapacak. Bir erken se\u00e7im karar\u0131 di\u011fer artan riskler ile birlikte yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir kredi notunun kaybedilmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. TC Merkez Bankas\u0131 b\u00f6yle bir kay\u0131p kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda finansal istikrar\u0131 korumak zorunda kalacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

5 - TC MERKEZ BANKASI PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KASI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Merkez Bankas\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta enflasyon raporu sunumunda a\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan itibaren para politikas\u0131n\u0131 sadele\u015ftirece\u011fini ve artan risklere kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli duru\u015fun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Para politikas\u0131n\u0131n sadele\u015ftirilmesi ile \u00e7oklu faizlerden sadece bug\u00fcn y\u00fczde 7.50 seviyesinde bulunan politika faizinin kullan\u0131m\u0131na geri d\u00f6n\u00fclecek ve politika faizi muhtemelen art\u0131r\u0131lacak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"merkez-bankasi-neler-yapacak","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Merkez Bankas\u0131 neler yapacak?","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1125,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":12627,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":12528,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Merkez Bankas\u0131 neler yapacak?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde finansal istikrar\u0131n korunmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli g\u00f6revler d\u00fc\u015fecek. Finansal istikrar\u0131 bozabilecek unsurlar\u0131, bunlar\u0131n etkilerini ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yapabileceklerini de\u011ferlendirelim.<\/span><\/p>

1 - FED\u2019\u0130N FA\u0130Z ARTI\u015eI VE SERMAYE \u00c7IKI\u015eLARI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Merkez Bankas\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 y\u0131ld\u0131r k\u00fcresel ekonomideki finansal ve parasal geni\u015flemenin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fleri ile \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ko\u015fullarda finansal istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yordu. Ancak k\u00fcresel mali ko\u015fullar h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fiyor.<\/span><\/p>

FED\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u015flamas\u0131 beklentisi ile birlikte geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerden sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ya\u015fanmaktad\u0131r. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin para birimleri 15 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferine gelirken d\u00f6viz rezervleri de azalmaktad\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye de ayn\u0131 geli\u015fmeler ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yad\u0131r. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 de\u011fer kaybederken, net sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ya\u015fanmaktad\u0131r. TC Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu yeni ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda FED\u2019in eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 da dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda finansal istikrar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ve T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek zorunda kalacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

2 - ERKEN SE\u00c7\u0130M VE ARTAN G\u00dcVENL\u0130K R\u0130SKLER\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

TC Merkez Bankas\u0131 2002\u2019den bu yana g\u00f6receli olarak daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 siyasi ve g\u00fcvenlik risklerinin oldu\u011fu ko\u015fullarda finansal istikrar\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yordu. Siyasi istikrarda 2011\u2019den bu yana bir erozyon olmakla birlikte bu erozyon TC Merkez Bankas\u0131 i\u00e7in ana risklerden biri haline gelmemi\u015fti. Ancak 7 Haziran se\u00e7imleri ard\u0131ndan bir erken se\u00e7im yap\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artmaktad\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca ter\u00f6r olaylar\u0131, \u0130\u015e\u0130D ve PKK ile m\u00fccadele ise T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fcvenlik risklerini art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. TC Merkez Bankas\u0131 belki de son 10 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek siyasi ve g\u00fcvenlik risklerinin oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemde finansal istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

3 - AZALAN D\u00d6V\u0130Z REZERVLER\u0130 VE BOZULAN CAR\u0130 A\u00c7IK F\u0130NANSMANI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye son 10 y\u0131lda yakla\u015f\u0131k 450 milyar dolar cari a\u00e7\u0131k verdi. Ancak bu d\u00f6nemdeki mevcut k\u00fcresel mali ko\u015fullar i\u00e7inde ucuz ve bol dolar likiditesi ile sa\u011flanan sermaye giri\u015fleri cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131n\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Hatta T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde cari a\u00e7\u0131k verirken, \u00fclkeye daha y\u00fcksek sermaye giri\u015fi oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz rezervleri de art\u0131yordu. Ancak 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 may\u0131s ay\u0131ndan itibaren k\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar de\u011fi\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. De\u011fi\u015fim son bir y\u0131lda ise h\u0131zland\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck cari a\u00e7\u0131klar vermesine kar\u015f\u0131n sermaye giri\u015fleri tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131 zorla\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 mevcut d\u00f6viz rezervleri ile ve net hata noksan kalemi ile (kimli\u011fi belirsiz sermaye giri\u015fi) kar\u015f\u0131lamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n net d\u00f6viz rezervleri 22.9 milyar dolar ile uzun s\u00fcrelerin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerilemi\u015f durumda. TC Merkez Bankas\u0131 azalan d\u00f6viz rezervlerini artt\u0131racak ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n finansman\u0131n\u0131 daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 hale getirecek ad\u0131mlar\u0131 atarak finansal istikrar\u0131 korumak zorunda kalacak.<\/span><\/p>

4 - MOODY\u2019S KRED\u0130 NOTU DE\u011eERLEND\u0130RMES\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye, Moody\u2019s ve Fitch kredi derecelendirme kurumlar\u0131ndan yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir kredi notuna sahip <\/span>bulunuyor. Moody\u2019s son iki de\u011ferlendirmesini pas ge\u00e7mi\u015fti. <\/span>
7 A\u011fustos tarihinde yeni bir de\u011ferlendirme yapacak. Bir erken se\u00e7im karar\u0131 di\u011fer artan riskler ile birlikte yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir kredi notunun kaybedilmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. TC Merkez Bankas\u0131 b\u00f6yle bir kay\u0131p kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda finansal istikrar\u0131 korumak zorunda kalacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

5 - TC MERKEZ BANKASI PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KASI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Merkez Bankas\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta enflasyon raporu sunumunda a\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan itibaren para politikas\u0131n\u0131 sadele\u015ftirece\u011fini ve artan risklere kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli duru\u015fun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Para politikas\u0131n\u0131n sadele\u015ftirilmesi ile \u00e7oklu faizlerden sadece bug\u00fcn y\u00fczde 7.50 seviyesinde bulunan politika faizinin kullan\u0131m\u0131na geri d\u00f6n\u00fclecek ve politika faizi muhtemelen art\u0131r\u0131lacak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"merkez-bankasi-neler-yapacak","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Merkez Bankas\u0131 neler yapacak?","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1125,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}