{"status":true,"post":{"id":85128,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":0,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2026-02-27 09:39:00","created_at":"2026-02-27T06:39:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2026-02-27T06:39:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2026-02-27 09:39:00","source_id":null,"post_id":85128,"is_featured":0,"title":"Makroekonomik veriler ne sinyaller \u00fcretiyor?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":"Makroekonomik veriler ne sinyaller \u00fcretiyor?","sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"

T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankas\u0131, 2026 \u015eubat ay\u0131 kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 verilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Verilere g\u00f6re mevsimsel etkilerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f imalat sanayi geneli kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re 0.4 puan azalarak y\u00fczde 74 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, mevsimsel etkilerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f olan kapasite kullan\u0131m\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re 0.6 puan azalarak y\u00fczde 73.5 seviyesine inmi\u015ftir.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

Biraz daha detaya inerek sekt\u00f6rel bazda kapasitelerin ne kadar\u0131 dolu oldu\u011funu inceleyelim. \u0130\u00e7ecek sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 64.2, bas\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 65.7, makina ve ekipmanda y\u00fczde 64.8, elektrikli te\u00e7hizatta y\u00fczde 69.5, deride y\u00fczde 60.8, di\u011fer imalatlar ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bulunan sekt\u00f6rlerde y\u00fczde 65.5, g\u0131dada y\u00fczde 72.4, giyimde y\u00fczde 74.1, tekstilde y\u00fczde 69.5. Bu oranlarla maalesef bu sekt\u00f6rlerin rekabet\u00e7i olma \u015fans\u0131 bulunmuyor.<\/p>


<\/p>

Di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlerin \u00e7o\u011funda da kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 70-75 band\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. \u0130stisnai olarak t\u00fct\u00fcn, a\u011fa\u00e7 \u00fcr\u00fcnleri, ka\u011f\u0131t sekt\u00f6rlerinde kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 80\u2019in \u00fczerindedir. Bu sekt\u00f6rlerde de fiyat tutturamama riski fazlad\u0131r.<\/p>


<\/p>

Bu verilerle bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn, \u00fcretebileceklerinin neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131na yak\u0131n \u00fcretim yapt\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131, bir\u00e7o\u011funun 1\/3 kapasitesini kullanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

SANAY\u0130 \u00dcRET\u0130M ENDEKS\u0130\u00a0
<\/strong><\/p>

\u015eimdi gelelim T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu (T\u00dc\u0130K) taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan Aral\u0131k 2025 (son veri) sanayi \u00fcretim endeksi verilerine. Bu verilere g\u00f6re de 2025 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 itibariyle sanayi \u00fcretiminin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 2.1 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130malat sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki azalma y\u00fczde 2.7 seviyesindedir. Ayl\u0131k bazda ise sanayi \u00fcretiminde y\u00fczde 1.2, imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de y\u00fczde 1 art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6zlemliyoruz.<\/p>


<\/p>

\u015eimdi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda sanayi \u00fcretim verisi detaylar\u0131na bakal\u0131m. Dayan\u0131ks\u0131z t\u00fcketim verisinde y\u00fczde 10.3 daralma, sermaye mal\u0131 \u00fcretiminde y\u00fczde 4.4 daralma, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck teknolojide y\u00fczde 8.7 daralma, y\u00fcksek teknolojide y\u00fczde 24.9 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda daralma oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.\u00a0<\/p>

Yine T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan d\u0131\u015f ticaret endeksleri b\u00fcltenine g\u00f6re Aral\u0131k 2025\u2019te ihracat miktar endeksi aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0.4 azald\u0131.<\/p>


<\/p>

BU VER\u0130LER B\u0130Z\u0130 NEREYE G\u00d6T\u00dcR\u00dcYOR?\u00a0
<\/strong><\/p>

\u00d6ncelikle miktar baz\u0131nda ihracat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bunun yan\u0131nda sanayi \u00fcretimi ve kapasite kullan\u0131m oranlar\u0131n\u0131n rekabet edilebilir seviyenin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durumda sabit maliyetler ve y\u00fcksek finansman y\u00fck\u00fc rekabet etmeyi imkans\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

B\u00fct\u00fcn bu sorunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda yap\u0131lan cirolar\u0131n vadeli olmas\u0131 durumunda \u00f6nceden nakit olarak \u00f6denen KDV gibi vergilere para bulmak da ayr\u0131 bir nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 problemi olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

Enflasyonun sebebi yurti\u00e7i talep olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in talebi daralt\u0131c\u0131 tedbirler al\u0131n\u0131yor. Ancak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ki, sat\u0131\u015f konusunda pozitif beklentisi olmayanlar, y\u00fcksek finansman maliyeti nedeniyle stoka \u00fcretim yapmak yerine do\u011frudan \u00fcretimi yava\u015flatmay\u0131 tercih ediyorlar.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

O zaman talebi durdural\u0131m derken, \u00fcretimi durdurmu\u015f olmuyor muyuz?<\/p>


<\/p>

Nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti\u011fi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kapasitelerle \u00fcretim yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6yle d\u00f6nemlerde rekabet\u00e7i olabilmek i\u00e7in al\u0131\u015fageldi\u011fimiz klasik y\u00f6netim modellerini b\u0131rakmak, bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmek zorunday\u0131z. Aksi halde \u00e7ok zorlu \u015fartlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabiliriz.<\/p>


<\/p>","slug":"makroekonomik-veriler-ne-sinyaller-uretiyor","tags":null,"meta_title":"Makroekonomik veriler ne sinyaller \u00fcretiyor?","meta_description":"T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankas\u0131, 2026 \u015eubat ay\u0131 kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 verilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Verilere g\u00f6re mevsimsel etkilerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f imalat sanayi geneli kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re 0.4 puan azalarak y\u00fczde 74 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, mevsimsel etkilerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f olan kapasite kullan\u0131m\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re 0.6 puan azalarak y\u00fczde 73.5 seviyesine inmi\u015ftir.","meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1772139600WcEn4SmpEiObivO.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":0,"cropped_1200x675":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/1200x675\/makroekonomik-veriler-ne-sinyaller-uretiyor_1200x675_YGjF6xdFNq.webp","user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":85260,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":85128,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Makroekonomik veriler ne sinyaller \u00fcretiyor?","home_title":"Makroekonomik veriler ne sinyaller \u00fcretiyor?","sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"

T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankas\u0131, 2026 \u015eubat ay\u0131 kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 verilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Verilere g\u00f6re mevsimsel etkilerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f imalat sanayi geneli kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re 0.4 puan azalarak y\u00fczde 74 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, mevsimsel etkilerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f olan kapasite kullan\u0131m\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re 0.6 puan azalarak y\u00fczde 73.5 seviyesine inmi\u015ftir.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

Biraz daha detaya inerek sekt\u00f6rel bazda kapasitelerin ne kadar\u0131 dolu oldu\u011funu inceleyelim. \u0130\u00e7ecek sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 64.2, bas\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 65.7, makina ve ekipmanda y\u00fczde 64.8, elektrikli te\u00e7hizatta y\u00fczde 69.5, deride y\u00fczde 60.8, di\u011fer imalatlar ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bulunan sekt\u00f6rlerde y\u00fczde 65.5, g\u0131dada y\u00fczde 72.4, giyimde y\u00fczde 74.1, tekstilde y\u00fczde 69.5. Bu oranlarla maalesef bu sekt\u00f6rlerin rekabet\u00e7i olma \u015fans\u0131 bulunmuyor.<\/p>


<\/p>

Di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlerin \u00e7o\u011funda da kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 70-75 band\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. \u0130stisnai olarak t\u00fct\u00fcn, a\u011fa\u00e7 \u00fcr\u00fcnleri, ka\u011f\u0131t sekt\u00f6rlerinde kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 80\u2019in \u00fczerindedir. Bu sekt\u00f6rlerde de fiyat tutturamama riski fazlad\u0131r.<\/p>


<\/p>

Bu verilerle bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn, \u00fcretebileceklerinin neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131na yak\u0131n \u00fcretim yapt\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131, bir\u00e7o\u011funun 1\/3 kapasitesini kullanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

SANAY\u0130 \u00dcRET\u0130M ENDEKS\u0130\u00a0
<\/strong><\/p>

\u015eimdi gelelim T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu (T\u00dc\u0130K) taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan Aral\u0131k 2025 (son veri) sanayi \u00fcretim endeksi verilerine. Bu verilere g\u00f6re de 2025 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 itibariyle sanayi \u00fcretiminin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 2.1 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130malat sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki azalma y\u00fczde 2.7 seviyesindedir. Ayl\u0131k bazda ise sanayi \u00fcretiminde y\u00fczde 1.2, imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de y\u00fczde 1 art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6zlemliyoruz.<\/p>


<\/p>

\u015eimdi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda sanayi \u00fcretim verisi detaylar\u0131na bakal\u0131m. Dayan\u0131ks\u0131z t\u00fcketim verisinde y\u00fczde 10.3 daralma, sermaye mal\u0131 \u00fcretiminde y\u00fczde 4.4 daralma, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck teknolojide y\u00fczde 8.7 daralma, y\u00fcksek teknolojide y\u00fczde 24.9 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda daralma oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.\u00a0<\/p>

Yine T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan d\u0131\u015f ticaret endeksleri b\u00fcltenine g\u00f6re Aral\u0131k 2025\u2019te ihracat miktar endeksi aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0.4 azald\u0131.<\/p>


<\/p>

BU VER\u0130LER B\u0130Z\u0130 NEREYE G\u00d6T\u00dcR\u00dcYOR?\u00a0
<\/strong><\/p>

\u00d6ncelikle miktar baz\u0131nda ihracat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bunun yan\u0131nda sanayi \u00fcretimi ve kapasite kullan\u0131m oranlar\u0131n\u0131n rekabet edilebilir seviyenin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durumda sabit maliyetler ve y\u00fcksek finansman y\u00fck\u00fc rekabet etmeyi imkans\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

B\u00fct\u00fcn bu sorunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda yap\u0131lan cirolar\u0131n vadeli olmas\u0131 durumunda \u00f6nceden nakit olarak \u00f6denen KDV gibi vergilere para bulmak da ayr\u0131 bir nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 problemi olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

Enflasyonun sebebi yurti\u00e7i talep olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in talebi daralt\u0131c\u0131 tedbirler al\u0131n\u0131yor. Ancak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ki, sat\u0131\u015f konusunda pozitif beklentisi olmayanlar, y\u00fcksek finansman maliyeti nedeniyle stoka \u00fcretim yapmak yerine do\u011frudan \u00fcretimi yava\u015flatmay\u0131 tercih ediyorlar.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

O zaman talebi durdural\u0131m derken, \u00fcretimi durdurmu\u015f olmuyor muyuz?<\/p>


<\/p>

Nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti\u011fi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kapasitelerle \u00fcretim yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6yle d\u00f6nemlerde rekabet\u00e7i olabilmek i\u00e7in al\u0131\u015fageldi\u011fimiz klasik y\u00f6netim modellerini b\u0131rakmak, bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmek zorunday\u0131z. Aksi halde \u00e7ok zorlu \u015fartlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabiliriz.<\/p>


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