{"status":true,"post":{"id":41857,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-07-24 07:55:00","created_at":"2023-07-24T04:55:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-07-24T04:55:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":41857,"is_featured":0,"title":"Makroekonomik istikrar","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":"


<\/p>

ngur@medipol.com.tr<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Makroekonomik istikrar\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 temel bile\u015feni vard\u0131r: Enflasyon, cari denge ve b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesi. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, bu \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6stergede de belli zorluklarla m\u00fccadele ediyor. Enflasyon, Kas\u0131m 2022\u2019den bu yana d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminde olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen man\u015fet oran h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek seviyelerde seyrediyor. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k ise y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinde. Son 12 ayl\u0131k birikimli (y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f) cari a\u00e7\u0131k seviyesi 60 milyar dolar\u0131 buldu. GSYH\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 6.3\u2019\u00fcne denk gelen bu cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l artan enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131 tetikledi. B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 oran\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 3 e\u015fi\u011fi \u00e7oktan a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Ocak-Haziran 2022 d\u00f6neminde 94 milyar TL fazla veren kamu b\u00fct\u00e7esi, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde 483 milyar TL a\u00e7\u0131k verdi.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda bu \u00fc\u00e7 de\u011fi\u015fkenin nas\u0131l bir seyir izleyece\u011fi olduk\u00e7a kritik. Zira vatanda\u015f\u0131n sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcnden \u015firketlerin finansmana eri\u015fimine, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndan faiz oran\u0131na kadar bir\u00e7ok unsur, makroekonomik istikrara ba\u011fl\u0131. Son sekiz ayda baz etkisiyle y\u00fczde 38.21\u2019e kadar gerileyen enflasyonda seri sonuna gelmi\u015f olabiliriz. Kurdaki s\u0131\u00e7rama, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve son vergi ayarlamalar\u0131 neticesinde enflasyonun yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7mesi kuvvetle muhtemel. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131, enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye y\u00f6nelik olumlu bir hamle olmakla birlikte tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n ise \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7mesi bekleniyor. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131, dolar baz\u0131nda ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l\u0131n bu d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla hat\u0131r\u0131 say\u0131l\u0131r oranda geriledi. Yaz aylar\u0131n\u0131n gelmesiyle birlikte turizm gelirleri art\u0131yor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda durgun bir seyir izleyen ihracat\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131da daha canl\u0131 bir performans sergilemesi y\u00fcksek ihtimal. Ayr\u0131ca, kurdaki y\u00fckseli\u015f ithal t\u00fcketimi frenleyebilir. Mevcut ko\u015fullarda s\u00fcrpriz bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmazsa, cari a\u00e7\u0131k bu y\u0131l\u0131 40-42 milyar dolar band\u0131nda kapatabilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

ASIL HEDEF YILI 2024<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Son olarak, kamu b\u00fct\u00e7esine de\u011finelim. \u0130ki b\u00fcy\u00fck depremden sonra b\u00f6lgenin yeniden aya\u011fa kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in yo\u011fun bir gayret g\u00f6steriliyor. Toplumun t\u00fcm kesimleri s\u00fcrece destek vermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu toplumsal gayret k\u0131ymetli olmakla birlikte bu durum, ihya s\u00fcrecinin en \u00f6nemli akt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn kamu oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini de\u011fi\u015ftirmiyor. Artan kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n finansman\u0131 i\u00e7in vergi oranlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f yap\u0131ld\u0131. Bu vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon ve gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 \u00fczerinde bozucu etkisi olacakt\u0131r. Bununla birlikte, vergi gelirlerindeki art\u0131\u015f b\u00fct\u00e7eyi bir nebze olsun toparlayacakt\u0131r. Enflasyonun artacak olmas\u0131n\u0131n da reel bazda kamu b\u00fct\u00e7esine olumlu yans\u0131malar\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bu geli\u015fmeler neticesinde b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z kesebilir. Ama yine de 2023\u2019\u00fc son 15 y\u0131l\u0131n ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde bir b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 oran\u0131 ile kapatma riskimiz var. \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Makroekonomik istikrar\u0131 bozucu geli\u015fmeleri ve riskleri kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmal\u0131y\u0131z. Bunun i\u00e7in para ve maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc ilerlemesi son derece \u00f6nemli. Bununla birlikte, hedefler ve eylemler aras\u0131nda tutarl\u0131l\u0131k sa\u011flanmal\u0131. Makroekonomik istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flama noktas\u0131nda 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 hedef olarak g\u00f6stermek iddial\u0131 olabilir; ancak istikrar\u0131 kesinlikle 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda tesis etmi\u015f olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Makroekonomik istikrar olmadan uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc, kapsay\u0131c\u0131 ve bereketli bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 g\u00f6stermek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"makroekonomik-istikrar","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1690146000DcOpgzEcxhGaJzZ.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1363,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":41983,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":41857,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Makroekonomik istikrar","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":"


<\/p>

ngur@medipol.com.tr<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Makroekonomik istikrar\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 temel bile\u015feni vard\u0131r: Enflasyon, cari denge ve b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesi. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, bu \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6stergede de belli zorluklarla m\u00fccadele ediyor. Enflasyon, Kas\u0131m 2022\u2019den bu yana d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminde olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen man\u015fet oran h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek seviyelerde seyrediyor. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k ise y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinde. Son 12 ayl\u0131k birikimli (y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f) cari a\u00e7\u0131k seviyesi 60 milyar dolar\u0131 buldu. GSYH\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 6.3\u2019\u00fcne denk gelen bu cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l artan enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131 tetikledi. B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 oran\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 3 e\u015fi\u011fi \u00e7oktan a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Ocak-Haziran 2022 d\u00f6neminde 94 milyar TL fazla veren kamu b\u00fct\u00e7esi, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde 483 milyar TL a\u00e7\u0131k verdi.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda bu \u00fc\u00e7 de\u011fi\u015fkenin nas\u0131l bir seyir izleyece\u011fi olduk\u00e7a kritik. Zira vatanda\u015f\u0131n sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcnden \u015firketlerin finansmana eri\u015fimine, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndan faiz oran\u0131na kadar bir\u00e7ok unsur, makroekonomik istikrara ba\u011fl\u0131. Son sekiz ayda baz etkisiyle y\u00fczde 38.21\u2019e kadar gerileyen enflasyonda seri sonuna gelmi\u015f olabiliriz. Kurdaki s\u0131\u00e7rama, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve son vergi ayarlamalar\u0131 neticesinde enflasyonun yeniden y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7mesi kuvvetle muhtemel. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131, enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye y\u00f6nelik olumlu bir hamle olmakla birlikte tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n ise \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7mesi bekleniyor. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131, dolar baz\u0131nda ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l\u0131n bu d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla hat\u0131r\u0131 say\u0131l\u0131r oranda geriledi. Yaz aylar\u0131n\u0131n gelmesiyle birlikte turizm gelirleri art\u0131yor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda durgun bir seyir izleyen ihracat\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131da daha canl\u0131 bir performans sergilemesi y\u00fcksek ihtimal. Ayr\u0131ca, kurdaki y\u00fckseli\u015f ithal t\u00fcketimi frenleyebilir. Mevcut ko\u015fullarda s\u00fcrpriz bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmazsa, cari a\u00e7\u0131k bu y\u0131l\u0131 40-42 milyar dolar band\u0131nda kapatabilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

ASIL HEDEF YILI 2024<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Son olarak, kamu b\u00fct\u00e7esine de\u011finelim. \u0130ki b\u00fcy\u00fck depremden sonra b\u00f6lgenin yeniden aya\u011fa kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in yo\u011fun bir gayret g\u00f6steriliyor. Toplumun t\u00fcm kesimleri s\u00fcrece destek vermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu toplumsal gayret k\u0131ymetli olmakla birlikte bu durum, ihya s\u00fcrecinin en \u00f6nemli akt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn kamu oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini de\u011fi\u015ftirmiyor. Artan kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n finansman\u0131 i\u00e7in vergi oranlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f yap\u0131ld\u0131. Bu vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon ve gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 \u00fczerinde bozucu etkisi olacakt\u0131r. Bununla birlikte, vergi gelirlerindeki art\u0131\u015f b\u00fct\u00e7eyi bir nebze olsun toparlayacakt\u0131r. Enflasyonun artacak olmas\u0131n\u0131n da reel bazda kamu b\u00fct\u00e7esine olumlu yans\u0131malar\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bu geli\u015fmeler neticesinde b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z kesebilir. Ama yine de 2023\u2019\u00fc son 15 y\u0131l\u0131n ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde bir b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 oran\u0131 ile kapatma riskimiz var. \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Makroekonomik istikrar\u0131 bozucu geli\u015fmeleri ve riskleri kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmal\u0131y\u0131z. Bunun i\u00e7in para ve maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc ilerlemesi son derece \u00f6nemli. Bununla birlikte, hedefler ve eylemler aras\u0131nda tutarl\u0131l\u0131k sa\u011flanmal\u0131. Makroekonomik istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flama noktas\u0131nda 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 hedef olarak g\u00f6stermek iddial\u0131 olabilir; ancak istikrar\u0131 kesinlikle 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda tesis etmi\u015f olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Makroekonomik istikrar olmadan uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc, kapsay\u0131c\u0131 ve bereketli bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 g\u00f6stermek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"makroekonomik-istikrar","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1690146000DcOpgzEcxhGaJzZ.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1690146000DcOpgzEcxhGaJzZ.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1363,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}