{"status":true,"post":{"id":17930,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 10:24:56","created_at":"2018-02-14T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T07:24:56.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":17930,"is_featured":0,"title":"Makro veriler ve reel durum","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu, piyasadan ve \u015firketlerden toplad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir\u00e7ok veriyi analiz eder ve bizleri bilgilendirmek i\u00e7in yay\u0131nlar. Bu veriler hem sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ve \u00fclke ekonomisinin durumunu g\u00f6rmemize yarar hem de \u015firket verileriyle yay\u0131nlanan verileri kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak genel gidi\u015fata g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7memize yarar.<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6rne\u011fin 5 \u015eubat 2018 g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131nlanan Y\u0130-\u00dcFE verileri bize Ocak 2017-2018 d\u00f6neminde yurt i\u00e7i \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 12.14 oran\u0131nda artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Hatta 12 ayl\u0131k ortalamalarda da bu oran y\u00fczde 15.66 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. <\/span><\/p>

Bir\u00e7ok veri maalesef bu fiyat \u015fi\u015fmelerinden olumsuz etkileniyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc hesaplamalarda sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131 baz al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha y\u00fcksek de\u011ferler bu enflasyonist de\u011ferleri de i\u00e7erisinde bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu, en son 2017 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda sanayi \u00fcretim ve perakende sat\u0131\u015f verilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. O y\u00fczden tam bir uyumu yakalamak i\u00e7in biz de 2017 yani Aral\u0131k 2017 enflasyon verilerini dikkate alal\u0131m. <\/span><\/p>

2017 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yurti\u00e7i \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 Y\u0130-\u00dcFE rakam\u0131 y\u00fczde 15.47 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Yani 2007\u2019de yurti\u00e7i \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 15.47 oran\u0131nda artm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde sanayi \u00fcretim verisi imalat sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 8.9 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterebildi. Bu analizde hesaplamalarda kullan\u0131lan \u00fcretim de\u011feri belirtilen ay i\u00e7erisinde, i\u015fyerinde \u00fcretilen ile hammadde ve malzemesini vermek suretiyle ba\u015fka bir i\u015fyerine yapt\u0131r\u0131lan \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin parasal de\u011feri olup, \u00fcretim de\u011feri sat\u0131\u015f birim fiyat\u0131 \u00fczerinden hesaplan\u0131yor. G\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nem enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmaktad\u0131r. <\/span>
Bu durum art\u0131\u015f\u0131n reel oldu\u011fu konusuna temkinli yakla\u015fmam\u0131za neden oluyor.<\/span><\/p>

Perakende sat\u0131\u015flara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde sadece y\u00fczde 5.4 oran\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n oldu\u011funu g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. Bu analizde fiyat \u015fi\u015fkinli\u011finin al\u0131nmas\u0131 i\u00e7in baz\u0131 y\u00f6ntemler geli\u015ftirilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

B\u00fclten sayfas\u0131nda yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re; \u201cCari fiyatlarla ciro endekslerinin uygun d\u00fczeyde fiyat hareketlerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 sonucunda sabit fiyatlarla perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacim endeksine ula\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Kullan\u0131lan fiyat endekslerinin KDV dahil derlenmesinden dolay\u0131 ar\u0131nd\u0131rma i\u015fleminde KDV dahil ciro endeksleri kullan\u0131l\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylelikle hacim \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn KDV oranlar\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimlerden de etkilenmemesi sa\u011flan\u0131yor\u201d deniliyor. <\/span><\/p>

K\u0131sacas\u0131 fiyat de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri bir \u015fekilde elimine edilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lsa da \u201cCari fiyatlarla hesaplanan ciro endekslerinden, sabit fiyatlarla perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacim endeksi hesaplanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in endeksler fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimlerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu ama\u00e7la \u201cAmaca G\u00f6re Bireysel T\u00fcketim S\u0131n\u0131flamas\u0131 (COICOP)\u201d d\u00fczeyinde \u00fcretilmekte olan T\u00dcFE sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 NACE Rev. 2 s\u0131n\u0131flamas\u0131na g\u00f6re hesaplan\u0131yor. <\/span>
Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm i\u00e7in hanehalk\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e anketi verileri kullan\u0131l\u0131yor.\u201d <\/span>
Burada a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda bahsedilen b\u00fct\u00e7e anketi gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik fiyatlamalar\u0131 anlatmakta olup i\u00e7erisinde do\u011fal olarak enflasyon i\u00e7eriyor. <\/span>
K\u0131sacas\u0131 bu konuda pek de ikna olmu\u015f de\u011filiz. <\/span>
Buna ra\u011fmen a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler enflasyon yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6zetle enflasyon-sanayi \u00fcretimi-perakende sat\u0131\u015f verileri rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte analiz etti\u011fimizde piyasan\u0131n yeni bir ivme kazanmak i\u00e7in ciddi tedbirlere ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. \u0130\u00e7 talebi canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in gereken tedbirler zaman\u0131nda al\u0131namazsa ihracat yapanlar d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ciddi bir d\u00f6k\u00fclme ya\u015fama ihtimali bulunuyor.<\/span><\/p>

Son s\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcz: M\u00fc\u015fterinizi aya\u011f\u0131n\u0131za beklemeyin. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n neresinde olursa olsun bulun.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"makro-veriler-ve-reel-durum","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Makro veriler ve reel durum","meta_description":"Hikmet Baydar","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":154,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":18029,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":17930,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Makro veriler ve reel durum","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu, piyasadan ve \u015firketlerden toplad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir\u00e7ok veriyi analiz eder ve bizleri bilgilendirmek i\u00e7in yay\u0131nlar. Bu veriler hem sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ve \u00fclke ekonomisinin durumunu g\u00f6rmemize yarar hem de \u015firket verileriyle yay\u0131nlanan verileri kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak genel gidi\u015fata g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7memize yarar.<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6rne\u011fin 5 \u015eubat 2018 g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131nlanan Y\u0130-\u00dcFE verileri bize Ocak 2017-2018 d\u00f6neminde yurt i\u00e7i \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 12.14 oran\u0131nda artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Hatta 12 ayl\u0131k ortalamalarda da bu oran y\u00fczde 15.66 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. <\/span><\/p>

Bir\u00e7ok veri maalesef bu fiyat \u015fi\u015fmelerinden olumsuz etkileniyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc hesaplamalarda sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131 baz al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha y\u00fcksek de\u011ferler bu enflasyonist de\u011ferleri de i\u00e7erisinde bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu, en son 2017 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda sanayi \u00fcretim ve perakende sat\u0131\u015f verilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. O y\u00fczden tam bir uyumu yakalamak i\u00e7in biz de 2017 yani Aral\u0131k 2017 enflasyon verilerini dikkate alal\u0131m. <\/span><\/p>

2017 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yurti\u00e7i \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 Y\u0130-\u00dcFE rakam\u0131 y\u00fczde 15.47 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Yani 2007\u2019de yurti\u00e7i \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 15.47 oran\u0131nda artm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde sanayi \u00fcretim verisi imalat sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 8.9 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterebildi. Bu analizde hesaplamalarda kullan\u0131lan \u00fcretim de\u011feri belirtilen ay i\u00e7erisinde, i\u015fyerinde \u00fcretilen ile hammadde ve malzemesini vermek suretiyle ba\u015fka bir i\u015fyerine yapt\u0131r\u0131lan \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin parasal de\u011feri olup, \u00fcretim de\u011feri sat\u0131\u015f birim fiyat\u0131 \u00fczerinden hesaplan\u0131yor. G\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nem enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmaktad\u0131r. <\/span>
Bu durum art\u0131\u015f\u0131n reel oldu\u011fu konusuna temkinli yakla\u015fmam\u0131za neden oluyor.<\/span><\/p>

Perakende sat\u0131\u015flara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde sadece y\u00fczde 5.4 oran\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n oldu\u011funu g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. Bu analizde fiyat \u015fi\u015fkinli\u011finin al\u0131nmas\u0131 i\u00e7in baz\u0131 y\u00f6ntemler geli\u015ftirilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

B\u00fclten sayfas\u0131nda yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re; \u201cCari fiyatlarla ciro endekslerinin uygun d\u00fczeyde fiyat hareketlerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 sonucunda sabit fiyatlarla perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacim endeksine ula\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Kullan\u0131lan fiyat endekslerinin KDV dahil derlenmesinden dolay\u0131 ar\u0131nd\u0131rma i\u015fleminde KDV dahil ciro endeksleri kullan\u0131l\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylelikle hacim \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn KDV oranlar\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimlerden de etkilenmemesi sa\u011flan\u0131yor\u201d deniliyor. <\/span><\/p>

K\u0131sacas\u0131 fiyat de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri bir \u015fekilde elimine edilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lsa da \u201cCari fiyatlarla hesaplanan ciro endekslerinden, sabit fiyatlarla perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacim endeksi hesaplanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in endeksler fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimlerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu ama\u00e7la \u201cAmaca G\u00f6re Bireysel T\u00fcketim S\u0131n\u0131flamas\u0131 (COICOP)\u201d d\u00fczeyinde \u00fcretilmekte olan T\u00dcFE sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 NACE Rev. 2 s\u0131n\u0131flamas\u0131na g\u00f6re hesaplan\u0131yor. <\/span>
Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm i\u00e7in hanehalk\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e anketi verileri kullan\u0131l\u0131yor.\u201d <\/span>
Burada a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda bahsedilen b\u00fct\u00e7e anketi gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik fiyatlamalar\u0131 anlatmakta olup i\u00e7erisinde do\u011fal olarak enflasyon i\u00e7eriyor. <\/span>
K\u0131sacas\u0131 bu konuda pek de ikna olmu\u015f de\u011filiz. <\/span>
Buna ra\u011fmen a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler enflasyon yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6zetle enflasyon-sanayi \u00fcretimi-perakende sat\u0131\u015f verileri rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte analiz etti\u011fimizde piyasan\u0131n yeni bir ivme kazanmak i\u00e7in ciddi tedbirlere ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. \u0130\u00e7 talebi canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in gereken tedbirler zaman\u0131nda al\u0131namazsa ihracat yapanlar d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ciddi bir d\u00f6k\u00fclme ya\u015fama ihtimali bulunuyor.<\/span><\/p>

Son s\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcz: M\u00fc\u015fterinizi aya\u011f\u0131n\u0131za beklemeyin. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n neresinde olursa olsun bulun.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"makro-veriler-ve-reel-durum","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Makro veriler ve reel durum","meta_description":"Hikmet Baydar","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":154,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}