{"status":true,"post":{"id":54618,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-08-26 07:52:00","created_at":"2024-08-26T04:52:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-08-26T04:52:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":54618,"is_featured":0,"title":"Makro dengeler iyile\u015fiyor, reel sekt\u00f6r zorlan\u0131yor","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"


<\/p>

gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2023 y\u0131l\u0131 haziran ay\u0131nda uygulanmaya ba\u015flanan, 2024 yerel se\u00e7imleri \u00f6ncesi kesintiye u\u011frayan ekonomide rasyonel politikalar, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 nisan ay\u0131ndan itibaren daha kararl\u0131l\u0131kla uygulan\u0131yor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ekonomide dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecine girilmi\u015f olup makro g\u00f6stergelerde de kademeli iyile\u015fmeler ba\u015flad\u0131. Ancak di\u011fer yandan uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131 nedeniyle reel sekt\u00f6r daha \u00e7ok zorlan\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

1. EYL\u00dcL AYI YILLIK ENFLASYONU Y\u00dcZDE 40\u2019LARA \u0130NEB\u0130L\u0130R<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Haziran ay\u0131nda enflasyonda ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle dezenflasyon s\u00fcreci fiilen ba\u015flad\u0131. Haziran ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 1.64 oldu ve y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 71.6\u2019ya geriledi. Temmuz ve a\u011fustos aylar\u0131nda fiyat ve vergi ayarlamalar\u0131 nedeniyle ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde olacak. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE bekleniyor. Ayl\u0131k enflasyondaki bu tahminlere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak eyl\u00fclde y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon y\u00fczde 40\u2019lara inebilecek ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131lsonu y\u00fczde 38 hedefine yakla\u015f\u0131lacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2. CAR\u0130 A\u00c7IK VE DI\u015e T\u0130CARET A\u00c7I\u011eI AZALIYOR, TUR\u0130ZM GEL\u0130RLER\u0130 ARTIYOR \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131n\u0131n bir di\u011fer hedefi, \u00f6demeler dengesinde s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131d\u0131r. S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131yla alt\u0131n ve enerji ithalat\u0131ndaki gerilemeler sonucu haziran sonu itibariyle y\u0131ll\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k 24.8 milyar dolara indi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ocak-haziran d\u00f6neminde d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 30.5 azal\u0131\u015fla 61 milyar 325 milyon dolardan 42 milyar 591 milyon dolara geriledi. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda turizm gelirleri ise y\u00fczde 9.3 artarak\u00a023.7 milyar dolara y\u00fckseldi.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

3. KAMUDA TASARRUF VE VERG\u0130 PAKET\u0130\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Maliye politikas\u0131 alan\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma i\u00e7in kamuda tasarruf paketi ve yeni vergi paketi a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u0130lk paket ile kamuda y\u0131ll\u0131k 130-140 milyar TL tasarruf sa\u011flanmas\u0131 hedefleniyor. Yeni vergi paketi ise ilave 155 milyar TL vergi ve gelir elde edilmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Vergi alan\u0131nda ekim ay\u0131 ile yeni paketlerin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 da bekleniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

4. D\u00d6V\u0130Z REZERVLER\u0130NDE ARTI\u015e S\u00dcR\u00dcYOR\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin g\u00f6revde kalmas\u0131 ve politikalar\u0131n kararl\u0131l\u0131kla uygulanmas\u0131 sonucu yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaynak giri\u015fi h\u0131zland\u0131, yerle\u015fikler de d\u00f6vizden TL\u2019ye d\u00f6nmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Artan d\u00f6viz likiditesini T.C. Merkez Bankas\u0131 sat\u0131n ald\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz rezervlerini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rd\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131 net rezervleri 51.4 milyar dolara kadar y\u00fckseldi.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

5. REEL KES\u0130M G\u00dcVEN ENDEKS\u0130 YILIN EN D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcK SEV\u0130YES\u0130NDE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ekonomide uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131yla dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecine girildi, d\u00f6viz rezervleri en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine ula\u015ft\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin risk primi azal\u0131rken kredi notlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Ekonomide rasyonel politikalara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fle makro g\u00f6stergelerde iyile\u015fmeler sa\u011flan\u0131yor. Ancak di\u011fer yandan uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131 reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc zorluyor. S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak i\u00e7 talep daha \u00e7ok zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak reel sekt\u00f6r g\u00fcven endeksi de 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi. Reel sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in zorluklar art\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

6. REEL SEKT\u00d6RDE DARALMA KUVVETLEN\u0130YOR<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131 imalat sanayinde \u00f6nce yava\u015flamaya, \u015fimdi de kuvvetlenen bir daralmaya yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. \u0130stanbul Sanayi Odas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n sekt\u00f6rler PMI verileri temmuz ay\u0131nda daralman\u0131n kuvvetlendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Temmuz ay\u0131 itibariyle i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f talepteki zay\u0131flamaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 10 alt imalat sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de daralma ya\u015fand\u0131. \u00d6zellikle enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in yurt i\u00e7inde uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131 imalat sanayini zorlamaya devam edecek. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

7. ELEKTR\u0130K, DO\u011eALGAZ VE ULA\u015eTIRMA F\u0130YAT ARTI\u015eLARI MAL\u0130YETLER\u0130 ARTIRACAK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bir yandan enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma politikalar\u0131 uygulan\u0131rken, di\u011fer yandan bir\u00e7ok kamu fiyat\u0131nda art\u0131\u015flar yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Hane halk\u0131 sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc ile reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn maliyetlerini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkileyen elektrik, do\u011falgaz ve ula\u015ft\u0131rma fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015flar yap\u0131ld\u0131. Bu art\u0131\u015flar a\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan itibaren sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc ve maliyetler \u00fczerinde ilave bask\u0131 olu\u015fturacak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

SON S\u00d6Z\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Reel sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in sonbahar aylar\u0131 daha zorlu ve kritik olacak.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"makro-dengeler-iyilesiyor-reel-sektor-zorlaniyor","tags":"makro ekonomi sekt\u00f6r turizm ticaret maliyet tasarruf enflasyon d\u00f6viz elektrik do\u011falgaz ula\u015ft\u0131rma fiyat","meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":"makro ekonomi sekt\u00f6r turizm ticaret maliyet tasarruf enflasyon d\u00f6viz elektrik do\u011falgaz ula\u015ft\u0131rma fiyat","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1724619600ZCSkMa6tu00p8hJ.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":6332,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":54744,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":54618,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Makro dengeler iyile\u015fiyor, reel sekt\u00f6r zorlan\u0131yor","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"


<\/p>

gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2023 y\u0131l\u0131 haziran ay\u0131nda uygulanmaya ba\u015flanan, 2024 yerel se\u00e7imleri \u00f6ncesi kesintiye u\u011frayan ekonomide rasyonel politikalar, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 nisan ay\u0131ndan itibaren daha kararl\u0131l\u0131kla uygulan\u0131yor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ekonomide dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecine girilmi\u015f olup makro g\u00f6stergelerde de kademeli iyile\u015fmeler ba\u015flad\u0131. Ancak di\u011fer yandan uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131 nedeniyle reel sekt\u00f6r daha \u00e7ok zorlan\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

1. EYL\u00dcL AYI YILLIK ENFLASYONU Y\u00dcZDE 40\u2019LARA \u0130NEB\u0130L\u0130R<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Haziran ay\u0131nda enflasyonda ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle dezenflasyon s\u00fcreci fiilen ba\u015flad\u0131. Haziran ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 1.64 oldu ve y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 71.6\u2019ya geriledi. Temmuz ve a\u011fustos aylar\u0131nda fiyat ve vergi ayarlamalar\u0131 nedeniyle ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde olacak. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE bekleniyor. Ayl\u0131k enflasyondaki bu tahminlere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak eyl\u00fclde y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon y\u00fczde 40\u2019lara inebilecek ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131lsonu y\u00fczde 38 hedefine yakla\u015f\u0131lacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2. CAR\u0130 A\u00c7IK VE DI\u015e T\u0130CARET A\u00c7I\u011eI AZALIYOR, TUR\u0130ZM GEL\u0130RLER\u0130 ARTIYOR \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131n\u0131n bir di\u011fer hedefi, \u00f6demeler dengesinde s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131d\u0131r. S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131yla alt\u0131n ve enerji ithalat\u0131ndaki gerilemeler sonucu haziran sonu itibariyle y\u0131ll\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k 24.8 milyar dolara indi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ocak-haziran d\u00f6neminde d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 30.5 azal\u0131\u015fla 61 milyar 325 milyon dolardan 42 milyar 591 milyon dolara geriledi. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda turizm gelirleri ise y\u00fczde 9.3 artarak\u00a023.7 milyar dolara y\u00fckseldi.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

3. KAMUDA TASARRUF VE VERG\u0130 PAKET\u0130\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Maliye politikas\u0131 alan\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma i\u00e7in kamuda tasarruf paketi ve yeni vergi paketi a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u0130lk paket ile kamuda y\u0131ll\u0131k 130-140 milyar TL tasarruf sa\u011flanmas\u0131 hedefleniyor. Yeni vergi paketi ise ilave 155 milyar TL vergi ve gelir elde edilmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Vergi alan\u0131nda ekim ay\u0131 ile yeni paketlerin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 da bekleniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

4. D\u00d6V\u0130Z REZERVLER\u0130NDE ARTI\u015e S\u00dcR\u00dcYOR\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin g\u00f6revde kalmas\u0131 ve politikalar\u0131n kararl\u0131l\u0131kla uygulanmas\u0131 sonucu yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaynak giri\u015fi h\u0131zland\u0131, yerle\u015fikler de d\u00f6vizden TL\u2019ye d\u00f6nmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Artan d\u00f6viz likiditesini T.C. Merkez Bankas\u0131 sat\u0131n ald\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz rezervlerini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rd\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131 net rezervleri 51.4 milyar dolara kadar y\u00fckseldi.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

5. REEL KES\u0130M G\u00dcVEN ENDEKS\u0130 YILIN EN D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcK SEV\u0130YES\u0130NDE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ekonomide uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131yla dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecine girildi, d\u00f6viz rezervleri en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine ula\u015ft\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin risk primi azal\u0131rken kredi notlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Ekonomide rasyonel politikalara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fle makro g\u00f6stergelerde iyile\u015fmeler sa\u011flan\u0131yor. Ancak di\u011fer yandan uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131 reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc zorluyor. S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak i\u00e7 talep daha \u00e7ok zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak reel sekt\u00f6r g\u00fcven endeksi de 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi. Reel sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in zorluklar art\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

6. REEL SEKT\u00d6RDE DARALMA KUVVETLEN\u0130YOR<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131 imalat sanayinde \u00f6nce yava\u015flamaya, \u015fimdi de kuvvetlenen bir daralmaya yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. \u0130stanbul Sanayi Odas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n sekt\u00f6rler PMI verileri temmuz ay\u0131nda daralman\u0131n kuvvetlendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Temmuz ay\u0131 itibariyle i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f talepteki zay\u0131flamaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 10 alt imalat sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de daralma ya\u015fand\u0131. \u00d6zellikle enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in yurt i\u00e7inde uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131 imalat sanayini zorlamaya devam edecek. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

7. ELEKTR\u0130K, DO\u011eALGAZ VE ULA\u015eTIRMA F\u0130YAT ARTI\u015eLARI MAL\u0130YETLER\u0130 ARTIRACAK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bir yandan enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma politikalar\u0131 uygulan\u0131rken, di\u011fer yandan bir\u00e7ok kamu fiyat\u0131nda art\u0131\u015flar yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Hane halk\u0131 sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc ile reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn maliyetlerini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkileyen elektrik, do\u011falgaz ve ula\u015ft\u0131rma fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015flar yap\u0131ld\u0131. Bu art\u0131\u015flar a\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan itibaren sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc ve maliyetler \u00fczerinde ilave bask\u0131 olu\u015fturacak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

SON S\u00d6Z\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Reel sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in sonbahar aylar\u0131 daha zorlu ve kritik olacak.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"makro-dengeler-iyilesiyor-reel-sektor-zorlaniyor","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1724619600ZCSkMa6tu00p8hJ.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1724619600ZCSkMa6tu00p8hJ.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"makro ekonomi sekt\u00f6r turizm ticaret maliyet tasarruf enflasyon d\u00f6viz elektrik do\u011falgaz ula\u015ft\u0131rma fiyat","meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":"makro ekonomi sekt\u00f6r turizm ticaret maliyet tasarruf enflasyon d\u00f6viz elektrik do\u011falgaz ula\u015ft\u0131rma fiyat","view_count":6332,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}