{"status":true,"post":{"id":33963,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 21:30:04","created_at":"2022-07-21T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T18:30:04.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":33963,"is_featured":0,"title":"K\u00fcresel s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">K\u00fcresel ekonomi iki y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n bir s\u00fcredir b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmalar ya\u015f\u0131yor. Koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131, k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirleriyle ilgili baz\u0131 hayati riskler oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Bunun bir yans\u0131mas\u0131 olarak \u00fcretim modelleri ve merkezlerine dair de\u011fi\u015fimlerin ya\u015fanmas\u0131 g\u00fcndeme geldi. Halihaz\u0131rda baz\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiklikler kendini g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flad\u0131 bile. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgal giri\u015fimi, k\u00fcresel ekonomi \u00fczerinde bir ba\u015fka \u015fok dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikledi. Petrol ve do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131 u\u00e7u\u015fa ge\u00e7ti, enerji rotalar\u0131 sorgulanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Salg\u0131n ve sava\u015f ikilisinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu tehlikeli kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m, d\u00fcnya genelinde enflasyon canavar\u0131n\u0131n hortlamas\u0131na neden oldu. Bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede enflasyon son 30-40 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6r\u00fcnce, para politikalar\u0131 yeniden \u015fekillenmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. 2008\u2019deki k\u00fcresel finans krizinden bu yana adeta daralt\u0131c\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ne oldu\u011funu unutan merkez bankalar\u0131, \u015fimdilerde para musluklar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smak ve faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in s\u0131raya girmi\u015f durumdalar. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>ABD\u2019DE RESESYON \u0130HT\u0130MAL\u0130<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> \u015eoklar\u0131n arka arkaya gelmesi, k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi fazlas\u0131yla s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Haliyle bir\u00e7ok hesap ve denge \u015fa\u015ft\u0131. Sene ba\u015f\u0131nda yap\u0131lan tahminlerde k\u00fcresel ekonominin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 4.5 civar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyordu. Son yap\u0131lan revizyonlar b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 2.5-3 band\u0131na d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. 2050\u2019de \u2018net s\u0131f\u0131r emisyon\u2019 hedefi i\u00e7in yola \u00e7\u0131kan AB \u00fclkeleri, do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n son 18 ayda sekiz kat artmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ge\u00e7ici de olsa k\u00f6m\u00fcr santrallerini yeniden devreye sokma karar\u0131 ald\u0131lar. Ya\u015fananlar o kadar sert ki, sa\u011flaml\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile bilinen Alman ekonomisi bile s\u00fcrece dayanamad\u0131 ve 1991\u2019den bu yana ilk kez d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verdi. Salg\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik etkilerini beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 atlatarak rahat bir nefes alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen ABD ekonomisine bu sefer de enflasyon ve daralt\u0131c\u0131 para politikas\u0131 \u00e7arpt\u0131. ABD\u2019nin gelecek y\u0131l resesyon ya\u015fama ihtimali her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn art\u0131yor. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>MAKROEKONOM\u0130K \u0130ST\u0130KRAR<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Bu zorlu ko\u015fullar geli\u015fen \u00fclkeleri de fazlas\u0131yla y\u0131prat\u0131yor. Geli\u015fen piyasalardan sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131. Y\u00fczde 8-10 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine al\u0131\u015f\u0131k oldu\u011fumuz \u00c7in\u2019in bu y\u0131l sadece y\u00fczde 3 civar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130\u00e7eriye d\u00f6necek olursak, bizdeki problemin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 rahatl\u0131kla s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. T\u00fcm i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara ra\u011fmen, iktisadi faaliyet bir \u015fekilde canl\u0131 kalmaya devam ediyor. Bizim i\u00e7in problem te\u015fkil eden alanlar; enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k. Bu heng\u00e2meden en az yarayla \u00e7\u0131kmak i\u00e7in \u00f6nceli\u011fimizi makroekonomik istikrar\u0131 yeniden tesis etmeye vermeliyiz. Bunu ba\u015fard\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z takdirde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de\u011fi\u015fen k\u00fcresel ekonomik d\u00fczendeki konumunu iyile\u015ftirmesi zor olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"kuresel-sikisma","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"K\u00fcresel s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma","meta_description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1082,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":34062,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":33963,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"K\u00fcresel s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">K\u00fcresel ekonomi iki y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n bir s\u00fcredir b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmalar ya\u015f\u0131yor. Koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131, k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirleriyle ilgili baz\u0131 hayati riskler oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Bunun bir yans\u0131mas\u0131 olarak \u00fcretim modelleri ve merkezlerine dair de\u011fi\u015fimlerin ya\u015fanmas\u0131 g\u00fcndeme geldi. Halihaz\u0131rda baz\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiklikler kendini g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flad\u0131 bile. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgal giri\u015fimi, k\u00fcresel ekonomi \u00fczerinde bir ba\u015fka \u015fok dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikledi. Petrol ve do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131 u\u00e7u\u015fa ge\u00e7ti, enerji rotalar\u0131 sorgulanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Salg\u0131n ve sava\u015f ikilisinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu tehlikeli kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m, d\u00fcnya genelinde enflasyon canavar\u0131n\u0131n hortlamas\u0131na neden oldu. Bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede enflasyon son 30-40 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6r\u00fcnce, para politikalar\u0131 yeniden \u015fekillenmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. 2008\u2019deki k\u00fcresel finans krizinden bu yana adeta daralt\u0131c\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ne oldu\u011funu unutan merkez bankalar\u0131, \u015fimdilerde para musluklar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smak ve faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in s\u0131raya girmi\u015f durumdalar. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>ABD\u2019DE RESESYON \u0130HT\u0130MAL\u0130<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> \u015eoklar\u0131n arka arkaya gelmesi, k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi fazlas\u0131yla s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Haliyle bir\u00e7ok hesap ve denge \u015fa\u015ft\u0131. Sene ba\u015f\u0131nda yap\u0131lan tahminlerde k\u00fcresel ekonominin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 4.5 civar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyordu. Son yap\u0131lan revizyonlar b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 2.5-3 band\u0131na d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. 2050\u2019de \u2018net s\u0131f\u0131r emisyon\u2019 hedefi i\u00e7in yola \u00e7\u0131kan AB \u00fclkeleri, do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n son 18 ayda sekiz kat artmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ge\u00e7ici de olsa k\u00f6m\u00fcr santrallerini yeniden devreye sokma karar\u0131 ald\u0131lar. Ya\u015fananlar o kadar sert ki, sa\u011flaml\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile bilinen Alman ekonomisi bile s\u00fcrece dayanamad\u0131 ve 1991\u2019den bu yana ilk kez d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verdi. Salg\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik etkilerini beklenenden h\u0131zl\u0131 atlatarak rahat bir nefes alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen ABD ekonomisine bu sefer de enflasyon ve daralt\u0131c\u0131 para politikas\u0131 \u00e7arpt\u0131. ABD\u2019nin gelecek y\u0131l resesyon ya\u015fama ihtimali her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn art\u0131yor. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>MAKROEKONOM\u0130K \u0130ST\u0130KRAR<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Bu zorlu ko\u015fullar geli\u015fen \u00fclkeleri de fazlas\u0131yla y\u0131prat\u0131yor. Geli\u015fen piyasalardan sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131. Y\u00fczde 8-10 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine al\u0131\u015f\u0131k oldu\u011fumuz \u00c7in\u2019in bu y\u0131l sadece y\u00fczde 3 civar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130\u00e7eriye d\u00f6necek olursak, bizdeki problemin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 rahatl\u0131kla s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. T\u00fcm i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f \u015foklara ra\u011fmen, iktisadi faaliyet bir \u015fekilde canl\u0131 kalmaya devam ediyor. Bizim i\u00e7in problem te\u015fkil eden alanlar; enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k. Bu heng\u00e2meden en az yarayla \u00e7\u0131kmak i\u00e7in \u00f6nceli\u011fimizi makroekonomik istikrar\u0131 yeniden tesis etmeye vermeliyiz. Bunu ba\u015fard\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z takdirde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de\u011fi\u015fen k\u00fcresel ekonomik d\u00fczendeki konumunu iyile\u015ftirmesi zor olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"kuresel-sikisma","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"K\u00fcresel s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma","meta_description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1082,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}