{"status":true,"post":{"id":34983,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 21:55:41","created_at":"2022-09-22T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T18:55:41.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":34983,"is_featured":0,"title":"K\u00fcresel resesyon endi\u015feleri artarken OVP\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2023-2025 y\u0131l\u0131 Orta Vadeli Program\u0131\u2019nda (OVP) ortaya konulan b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi, k\u00fcresel resesyon endi\u015felerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131na moral vermeli. <\/span>
<\/span>
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede programdaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefini ve i\u015flerimize olas\u0131 etkilerini de\u011ferlendirelim.<\/span>
<\/span>
1. DOLAR KURU VARSAYIMLARI DAHA GER\u00c7EK\u00c7\u0130<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Orta Vadeli Program\u2019da \u00f6ncekilere g\u00f6re daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 dolar kuru varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda kurun ortalama 16.6 TL olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in 19 TL \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Program 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda ortalama dolar kurunu 21.5 TL olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f. Buna g\u00f6re 2022 y\u0131l sonunda dolar kuru 19 TL olacak ise 2023 y\u0131l sonunda 24 TL olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f.<\/span>
<\/span>
2. 2023\u2019TE Y\u00dcZDE 5 B\u00dcY\u00dcME HEDEFLEN\u0130YOR <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi y\u00fczde 5\u2019tir. K\u00fcresel ekonomide yava\u015flama ve\/veya resesyon ko\u015fullar\u0131 olacak. Bu nedenle <\/span>2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5 hedefine ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in daha \u00e7ok i\u00e7 talebin katk\u0131 sa\u011flamas\u0131 gerekecek. Nitekim 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda ihracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 0.8 puan olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 4.2 puan i\u00e7 talepten gelecek.<\/span>
<\/span>
3. B\u00dcY\u00dcMEY\u0130 \u00d6ZEL T\u00dcKET\u0130M VE YATIRIM HARCAMALARI S\u00dcR\u00dcKLEYECEK <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda i\u00e7 talebin \u00f6nemli unsurlar\u0131ndan \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcme olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Yine \u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 4.5\u2019tir. Yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda yava\u015flama daha \u00e7ok makina ve te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclecek. \u0130n\u015faat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterecek. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda kamu t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc y\u00fczde 3.6\u2019d\u0131r. Se\u00e7im y\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen kamu t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Kamu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek bir t\u00fcketim harcamas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebilecek. <\/span>
<\/span>
4. \u0130HRACAT HEDEF\u0130 TEMK\u0130NL\u0130 BEL\u0130RLENM\u0130\u015e <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda ihracat hedefi 265 milyar dolard\u0131r. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve ticarette yava\u015flama, hatta k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme beklentileri bulunuyor. \u00d6zellikle en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat pazar\u0131m\u0131z olan Avrupa\u2019da yava\u015flama veya k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme daha \u00e7ok hissedilecek. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen 265 milyar dolar ihracat hedefi ger\u00e7ek\u00e7idir. Muhtemelen ihracat y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda dura\u011fan kalacak, ikinci yar\u0131da b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterecek. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda ithalatta gerileme olmas\u0131 ve 345 milyar dolara inmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. <\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu ihracat ve ithalat varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7inde 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda 80 milyar dolar d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 vermesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. D\u0131\u015f ticaretteki gerileme beklentisi ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok ithalattaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayand\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Bu nedenle enerji ve genel ithalat\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 halinde 80 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olabilecek. <\/span>
<\/span>
5. CAR\u0130 A\u00c7IK HEDEF\u0130 \u0130Y\u0130MSER G\u00d6Z\u00dcK\u00dcYOR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda cari i\u015flemler dengesinde a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 47.3 milyar dolardan 22 milyar dolara inece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n GSY\u0130H\u2019ye oran\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 2.5 olacak. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k verisindeki bu \u00f6nemli gerileme beklentisi daha \u00e7ok turizm gerilerindeki y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f beklentisine dayan\u0131yor. <\/span>
<\/span>
2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda turizm geliri hedefi 34 milyar dolardan 45 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel yava\u015flama ve\/veya resesyon ortam\u0131nda d\u00fcnya turizm harcamalar\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme muhtemelen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalacak. Bu nedenle 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in konulan 45 milyar dolar turizm hedefi olduk\u00e7a iddial\u0131, ancak yine de 40 milyar dolar seviyesine ula\u015f\u0131lacak.<\/span>

6. 2023\u2019E SARKAN EN \u00d6NEML\u0130 SORUN ENFLASYON <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2022 y\u0131l sonunda y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 65 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Bu beklenti iyimserdir ve 2022 y\u0131l sonunda T\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 70-72 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. Program\u0131n 2023 y\u0131l sonu T\u00dcFE beklentisi y\u00fczde 24.9\u2019dur. Bu beklenti \u00e7ok iyimserdir. T\u00fcrk liras\u0131nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Y\u00fczde 5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi ve se\u00e7ime y\u00f6nelik geni\u015flemeci politikalar da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde T\u00dcFE 2023 haziran ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 60, 2023 sonunda ise y\u00fczde 40-45 seviyelerinde olacak.<\/span>
<\/span>
SON S\u00d6Z <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Resesyon beklentileri i\u00e7inde enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken y\u00fczde 5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme sa\u011flanmas\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131 olacak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"kuresel-resesyon-endiseleri-artarken-ovpde-buyume-hedefi","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"K\u00fcresel resesyon endi\u015feleri artarken OVP\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1108,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":35082,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":34983,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"K\u00fcresel resesyon endi\u015feleri artarken OVP\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2023-2025 y\u0131l\u0131 Orta Vadeli Program\u0131\u2019nda (OVP) ortaya konulan b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi, k\u00fcresel resesyon endi\u015felerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131na moral vermeli. <\/span>
<\/span>
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede programdaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefini ve i\u015flerimize olas\u0131 etkilerini de\u011ferlendirelim.<\/span>
<\/span>
1. DOLAR KURU VARSAYIMLARI DAHA GER\u00c7EK\u00c7\u0130<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Orta Vadeli Program\u2019da \u00f6ncekilere g\u00f6re daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 dolar kuru varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda kurun ortalama 16.6 TL olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in 19 TL \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Program 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda ortalama dolar kurunu 21.5 TL olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f. Buna g\u00f6re 2022 y\u0131l sonunda dolar kuru 19 TL olacak ise 2023 y\u0131l sonunda 24 TL olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f.<\/span>
<\/span>
2. 2023\u2019TE Y\u00dcZDE 5 B\u00dcY\u00dcME HEDEFLEN\u0130YOR <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi y\u00fczde 5\u2019tir. K\u00fcresel ekonomide yava\u015flama ve\/veya resesyon ko\u015fullar\u0131 olacak. Bu nedenle <\/span>2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5 hedefine ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in daha \u00e7ok i\u00e7 talebin katk\u0131 sa\u011flamas\u0131 gerekecek. Nitekim 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda ihracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 0.8 puan olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 4.2 puan i\u00e7 talepten gelecek.<\/span>
<\/span>
3. B\u00dcY\u00dcMEY\u0130 \u00d6ZEL T\u00dcKET\u0130M VE YATIRIM HARCAMALARI S\u00dcR\u00dcKLEYECEK <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda i\u00e7 talebin \u00f6nemli unsurlar\u0131ndan \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcme olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Yine \u00f6zel yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 4.5\u2019tir. Yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131nda yava\u015flama daha \u00e7ok makina ve te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclecek. \u0130n\u015faat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterecek. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda kamu t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc y\u00fczde 3.6\u2019d\u0131r. Se\u00e7im y\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen kamu t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Kamu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek bir t\u00fcketim harcamas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebilecek. <\/span>
<\/span>
4. \u0130HRACAT HEDEF\u0130 TEMK\u0130NL\u0130 BEL\u0130RLENM\u0130\u015e <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda ihracat hedefi 265 milyar dolard\u0131r. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve ticarette yava\u015flama, hatta k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme beklentileri bulunuyor. \u00d6zellikle en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat pazar\u0131m\u0131z olan Avrupa\u2019da yava\u015flama veya k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme daha \u00e7ok hissedilecek. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen 265 milyar dolar ihracat hedefi ger\u00e7ek\u00e7idir. Muhtemelen ihracat y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda dura\u011fan kalacak, ikinci yar\u0131da b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterecek. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda ithalatta gerileme olmas\u0131 ve 345 milyar dolara inmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. <\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu ihracat ve ithalat varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7inde 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda 80 milyar dolar d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 vermesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. D\u0131\u015f ticaretteki gerileme beklentisi ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok ithalattaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayand\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Bu nedenle enerji ve genel ithalat\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 halinde 80 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olabilecek. <\/span>
<\/span>
5. CAR\u0130 A\u00c7IK HEDEF\u0130 \u0130Y\u0130MSER G\u00d6Z\u00dcK\u00dcYOR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda cari i\u015flemler dengesinde a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 47.3 milyar dolardan 22 milyar dolara inece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n GSY\u0130H\u2019ye oran\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 2.5 olacak. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k verisindeki bu \u00f6nemli gerileme beklentisi daha \u00e7ok turizm gerilerindeki y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f beklentisine dayan\u0131yor. <\/span>
<\/span>
2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda turizm geliri hedefi 34 milyar dolardan 45 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel yava\u015flama ve\/veya resesyon ortam\u0131nda d\u00fcnya turizm harcamalar\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme muhtemelen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalacak. Bu nedenle 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in konulan 45 milyar dolar turizm hedefi olduk\u00e7a iddial\u0131, ancak yine de 40 milyar dolar seviyesine ula\u015f\u0131lacak.<\/span>

6. 2023\u2019E SARKAN EN \u00d6NEML\u0130 SORUN ENFLASYON <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
2022 y\u0131l sonunda y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 65 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f. Bu beklenti iyimserdir ve 2022 y\u0131l sonunda T\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 70-72 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. Program\u0131n 2023 y\u0131l sonu T\u00dcFE beklentisi y\u00fczde 24.9\u2019dur. Bu beklenti \u00e7ok iyimserdir. T\u00fcrk liras\u0131nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Y\u00fczde 5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi ve se\u00e7ime y\u00f6nelik geni\u015flemeci politikalar da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde T\u00dcFE 2023 haziran ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 60, 2023 sonunda ise y\u00fczde 40-45 seviyelerinde olacak.<\/span>
<\/span>
SON S\u00d6Z <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Resesyon beklentileri i\u00e7inde enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken y\u00fczde 5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme sa\u011flanmas\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131 olacak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"kuresel-resesyon-endiseleri-artarken-ovpde-buyume-hedefi","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"K\u00fcresel resesyon endi\u015feleri artarken OVP\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefi","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1108,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}