{"status":true,"post":{"id":26254,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 15:18:03","created_at":"2021-04-29T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T12:18:03.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":26254,"is_featured":0,"title":"K\u00fcresel enflasyon endi\u015fesi","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

DO\u00c7. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomi 2000\u2019lerle birlikte enflasyon sorununu b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geride b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. K\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlerinin geni\u015flemesi, \u00c7in\u2019in D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019ne \u00fcyeli\u011fi, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde ya\u015flanan n\u00fcfusun harcama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesi ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin para ve maliye politikalar\u0131nda daha \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc hareket etmesi gibi fakt\u00f6rler d\u00fcnya genelinde enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesine katk\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7ok uzun y\u0131llar enflasyon canavar\u0131yla m\u00fccadele eden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de bile enflasyon tek haneli rakamlara inmi\u015fti. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon d\u00f6neminde ABD ve geli\u015fmi\u015f Avrupa \u00fclkelerinin enflasyonu hedef d\u00fczeylere bile \u00e7\u0131karmakta ve orada tutmakta zorland\u0131klar\u0131na \u015fahit olduk. <\/span>
<\/span>
ARZ-TALEP KO\u015eULLARI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 sonras\u0131 bu hik\u00e2yenin de\u011fi\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. D\u00fcnya genelinde enflasyon beklentileri art\u0131yor. <\/span>
<\/span>
Peki, ne de\u011fi\u015fti de enflasyon riski geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc? Bu sorunun tek c\u00fcmlelik cevab\u0131 \u015fu: Salg\u0131n\u0131n talep ve arz ko\u015fular\u0131 \u00fczerinde neden oldu\u011fu do\u011frudan ve dolayl\u0131 etkiler enflasyonu tetikliyor. Talep taraf\u0131yla ba\u015flayarak cevab\u0131 biraz daha detayland\u0131r\u0131lal\u0131m. Salg\u0131nla ekonomik m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda d\u00fcnya genelinde verilen toplam 16 trilyon dolarl\u0131k mali deste\u011fin talebi canland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etkisi oldu. <\/span>
<\/span>
Bununla birlikte, salg\u0131n ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 talebi normal zamanlar\u0131n \u00fczerinde artan \u00fcr\u00fcn kalemleri (g\u0131da, sa\u011fl\u0131k ve hijyen \u00fcr\u00fcnleri, elektrikli ev aletleri gibi) oldu. <\/span>
<\/span>
ESAS SORUN \u00dcRET\u0130M MAL\u0130YETLER\u0130NDE<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Talepteki de\u011fi\u015fim etkili olmakla birlikte, asl\u0131 hik\u00e2ye ekonominin arz taraf\u0131nda. Salg\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 tedarik zincirlerinde \u00fcretim s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131, uluslararas\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k zorla\u015ft\u0131, ihracat\u0131 engelleyici politikalar devreye girdi ve baz\u0131 \u00fclkeler ne olur ne olmaz mant\u0131\u011f\u0131yla hammadde stoklad\u0131lar. Bu ya\u015fananlar ara mal\u0131 tedarikini olduk\u00e7a zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131; \u00fcretim maliyetleri artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/span>
<\/span>
\u00c7in\u2019de \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 mart ay\u0131nda, Temmuz 2018\u2019den sonraki en y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131. ABD\u2019deki Ulusal \u00dcreticiler Birli\u011fi taraf\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen anketin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re, \u015firketlerin y\u00fczde %76\u2019s\u0131 2021\u2019in en b\u00fcy\u00fck meydan okumas\u0131 olarak \u00fcretim maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6steriyorlar.<\/span>
<\/span>
S\u00f6z\u00fcn \u00f6z\u00fc, son bir y\u0131lda arz-talep dengesinde ya\u015fanan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar neticesinde fiyatlar y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. \u00d6zellikle emtia fiyatlar\u0131 \u00e7ok hareketli. Al\u00fcminyum, bak\u0131r ve petrolde k\u00fcresel fiyatlar y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015f kaydetti. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Emtia Piyasalar\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019na g\u00f6re, metal fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l 2020\u2019ye k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 30 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. K\u00fcresel g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 son 7 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerinde seyrediyor. Emtia ve tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnleri fiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131nca haliyle bunun t\u00fcketim \u00fcr\u00fcnleri fiyatlar\u0131na da belli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclerde yans\u0131mas\u0131 oluyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
B\u00fct\u00fcn bu geli\u015fmelere ra\u011fmen, enflasyonun 1970\u2019lerdeki gibi h\u0131zla s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 veya stagflasyon ya\u015fanmas\u0131 \u00e7ok ihtimal dahilinde de\u011fil. \u00dcretim yap\u0131s\u0131, teknoloji, d\u0131\u015f ticaret ve uygulamadaki politikalar noktas\u0131nda 50 y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 bir d\u00fcnyada ya\u015f\u0131yoruz. Ama salg\u0131n ko\u015fullar\u0131 geride kal\u0131p ekonomiler normale d\u00f6nene kadar da k\u00fcresel enflasyonun son y\u0131llardaki ortalama seviyelerin \u00fczerinde seyredebilece\u011fi ihtimalinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu not etmekte fayda var.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"kuresel-enflasyon-endisesi","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"K\u00fcresel enflasyon endi\u015fesi","meta_description":"DO\u00c7. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1139,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":26353,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":26254,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"K\u00fcresel enflasyon endi\u015fesi","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

DO\u00c7. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomi 2000\u2019lerle birlikte enflasyon sorununu b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geride b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. K\u00fcresel tedarik zincirlerinin geni\u015flemesi, \u00c7in\u2019in D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019ne \u00fcyeli\u011fi, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde ya\u015flanan n\u00fcfusun harcama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesi ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin para ve maliye politikalar\u0131nda daha \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc hareket etmesi gibi fakt\u00f6rler d\u00fcnya genelinde enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesine katk\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7ok uzun y\u0131llar enflasyon canavar\u0131yla m\u00fccadele eden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de bile enflasyon tek haneli rakamlara inmi\u015fti. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon d\u00f6neminde ABD ve geli\u015fmi\u015f Avrupa \u00fclkelerinin enflasyonu hedef d\u00fczeylere bile \u00e7\u0131karmakta ve orada tutmakta zorland\u0131klar\u0131na \u015fahit olduk. <\/span>
<\/span>
ARZ-TALEP KO\u015eULLARI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 sonras\u0131 bu hik\u00e2yenin de\u011fi\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. D\u00fcnya genelinde enflasyon beklentileri art\u0131yor. <\/span>
<\/span>
Peki, ne de\u011fi\u015fti de enflasyon riski geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc? Bu sorunun tek c\u00fcmlelik cevab\u0131 \u015fu: Salg\u0131n\u0131n talep ve arz ko\u015fular\u0131 \u00fczerinde neden oldu\u011fu do\u011frudan ve dolayl\u0131 etkiler enflasyonu tetikliyor. Talep taraf\u0131yla ba\u015flayarak cevab\u0131 biraz daha detayland\u0131r\u0131lal\u0131m. Salg\u0131nla ekonomik m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda d\u00fcnya genelinde verilen toplam 16 trilyon dolarl\u0131k mali deste\u011fin talebi canland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etkisi oldu. <\/span>
<\/span>
Bununla birlikte, salg\u0131n ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 talebi normal zamanlar\u0131n \u00fczerinde artan \u00fcr\u00fcn kalemleri (g\u0131da, sa\u011fl\u0131k ve hijyen \u00fcr\u00fcnleri, elektrikli ev aletleri gibi) oldu. <\/span>
<\/span>
ESAS SORUN \u00dcRET\u0130M MAL\u0130YETLER\u0130NDE<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Talepteki de\u011fi\u015fim etkili olmakla birlikte, asl\u0131 hik\u00e2ye ekonominin arz taraf\u0131nda. Salg\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 tedarik zincirlerinde \u00fcretim s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131, uluslararas\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k zorla\u015ft\u0131, ihracat\u0131 engelleyici politikalar devreye girdi ve baz\u0131 \u00fclkeler ne olur ne olmaz mant\u0131\u011f\u0131yla hammadde stoklad\u0131lar. Bu ya\u015fananlar ara mal\u0131 tedarikini olduk\u00e7a zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131; \u00fcretim maliyetleri artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/span>
<\/span>
\u00c7in\u2019de \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131 mart ay\u0131nda, Temmuz 2018\u2019den sonraki en y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131. ABD\u2019deki Ulusal \u00dcreticiler Birli\u011fi taraf\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen anketin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re, \u015firketlerin y\u00fczde %76\u2019s\u0131 2021\u2019in en b\u00fcy\u00fck meydan okumas\u0131 olarak \u00fcretim maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6steriyorlar.<\/span>
<\/span>
S\u00f6z\u00fcn \u00f6z\u00fc, son bir y\u0131lda arz-talep dengesinde ya\u015fanan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar neticesinde fiyatlar y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. \u00d6zellikle emtia fiyatlar\u0131 \u00e7ok hareketli. Al\u00fcminyum, bak\u0131r ve petrolde k\u00fcresel fiyatlar y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015f kaydetti. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Emtia Piyasalar\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019na g\u00f6re, metal fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l 2020\u2019ye k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 30 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. K\u00fcresel g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 son 7 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerinde seyrediyor. Emtia ve tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnleri fiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131nca haliyle bunun t\u00fcketim \u00fcr\u00fcnleri fiyatlar\u0131na da belli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclerde yans\u0131mas\u0131 oluyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
B\u00fct\u00fcn bu geli\u015fmelere ra\u011fmen, enflasyonun 1970\u2019lerdeki gibi h\u0131zla s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 veya stagflasyon ya\u015fanmas\u0131 \u00e7ok ihtimal dahilinde de\u011fil. \u00dcretim yap\u0131s\u0131, teknoloji, d\u0131\u015f ticaret ve uygulamadaki politikalar noktas\u0131nda 50 y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 bir d\u00fcnyada ya\u015f\u0131yoruz. Ama salg\u0131n ko\u015fullar\u0131 geride kal\u0131p ekonomiler normale d\u00f6nene kadar da k\u00fcresel enflasyonun son y\u0131llardaki ortalama seviyelerin \u00fczerinde seyredebilece\u011fi ihtimalinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu not etmekte fayda var.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"kuresel-enflasyon-endisesi","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"K\u00fcresel enflasyon endi\u015fesi","meta_description":"DO\u00c7. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1139,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}