<\/p>
OECD\u2019nin k\u00fcresel ekonominin gidi\u015fat\u0131na dair son de\u011ferlendirmeleri, ABD hari\u00e7, Avrupa Birli\u011fi, Kanada, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k, Avustralya ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n birle\u015fik, yani hem imalat sanayi hem de hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi (PMI) \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n seyrinin zay\u0131f gitti\u011fine, Kanada\u2019daki negatif tablonun hayli a\u011f\u0131r bir tempoda toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131na, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ise ABD hari\u00e7, di\u011fer ekonomilerin PMI de\u011ferlerinin tekrar 50 puana do\u011fru performans kayb\u0131 ya\u015fayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, BRICS \u00fclkeleri olarak, toparlanm\u0131\u015f olan Brezilya\u2019da bir miktar performans kayb\u0131, yatay seyreden \u00c7in\u2019de toparlanma ve y\u00fckseli\u015f bekleniyor.Hindistan, bu grup \u00fclkeler i\u00e7erisinde performans\u0131 g\u00f6receli olarak y\u00fcksek seyreden bir ekonomi olma \u00f6zelli\u011fi g\u00f6sterirken, G\u00fcney Afrika\u2019n\u0131n ini\u015fli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fl\u0131 PMI performans\u0131n\u0131n negatif d\u00fczeyde devam etti\u011fi g\u00f6zlemleniyor. K\u00fcresel ekonomideki toparlanma b\u00f6lgesel farkl\u0131l\u0131klar g\u00f6steriyor ve bu tablo \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde OECD ekonomistleri, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel ekonominin y\u00fczde 3.3 seviyesinde b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fine dair beklentilerini korumay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. K\u00fcresel ekonomide g\u00fcncel ekonomik geli\u015fmeler b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu sinyaller vermese de, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ili\u015fkin riskler Japonya ve Meksika i\u00e7in negatif olsa da,\u00a0<\/span>OECD\u2019nin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri Endonezya, Hindistan ve T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in pozitif y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir beklentiye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> DEZENFLASYON S\u00dcREC\u0130 HIZ KEST\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> 2021\u2019den itibaren, k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n birinci y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n geride kalmas\u0131yla ba\u015flayan ve Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte adeta katlanan k\u00fcresel enflasyonist s\u00fcre\u00e7, 2023\u2019\u00fcn ilkbahar\u0131 ile birlikte yerini bir gerileme d\u00f6nemine b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f olsa da, dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin son 4 ayd\u0131r h\u0131z kesti\u011fi de bir ger\u00e7ek. Nitekim, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyonda, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l\u0131n aral\u0131k ay\u0131na g\u00f6re, \u0130talya ve Avustralya daha belirgin bir art\u0131\u015fla Meksika, Suudi Arabistan, Hindistan, Japonya ve \u00c7in ise daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fckselmi\u015f bir enflasyon ile yaz d\u00f6nemine girmi\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Bununla birlikte, enflasyonist bask\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131smen k\u0131p\u0131rdam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni, \u00fclke baz\u0131nda ve sekt\u00f6rel bazda farkl\u0131l\u0131klar g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u0130\u015eS\u0130ZL\u0130K ORANLARI<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc d\u00fczeyinde ise k\u00fcresel enflasyon d\u00fczeyinde yap\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k halen s\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve bu durum k\u00fcresel dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin h\u0131z\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu noktada, maliyet enflasyonunun alt ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 olarak, S\u00fcvey\u015f Kanal\u0131\u2019ndaki jeopolitik gerginlikler ve Panama Kanal\u0131\u2019ndaki sorunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak de\u011fi\u015fen rotalar ile navlun fiyatlar\u0131 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n nisan ay\u0131ndan bu yana art\u0131\u015f kaydediyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ayn\u0131 k\u00fcresel ve b\u00f6lgesel jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin olumsuzluklar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, enerji fiyatlar\u0131 daha istikrarl\u0131 bir seyri koruyor g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. \u0130stihdam piyasalar\u0131nda ise t\u00fcm k\u00fcresel dalgalanma ve zorluklara ra\u011fmen g\u00f6receli olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn devam ediyor olmas\u0131 sevindirici.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> OECD \u00fcyesi \u00fclkelerin t\u00fcm\u00fcnde, i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131 tarihi en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine g\u00f6re hayli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyede seyretmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 2004 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana, tarihi d\u00fczeyde en y\u00fcksek i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f olan \u00fclkeler olarak Latin Amerika \u00fclkeleri, Balt\u0131k \u00fclkeleri, kimi Do\u011fu Avrupa \u00fclkeleri Yunanistan, \u0130spanya, ABD ve \u0130rlanda \u015fu anda daha iyi i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 d\u00fczeyinde. T\u00fcrkiye de tarihi y\u00fcksek seviyesine g\u00f6re i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131 geriletmeyi ba\u015farm\u0131\u015f durumda. K\u00fcresel ticareti ise 2015-2019 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 bir seviyede tutsa da, k\u00fcresel ticari aktivitenin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6receli olarak yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 etkisini de takip etmek gerekecek.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"kuresel-buyumeye-yonelik-sinyaller-dalgali","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1721595600KeJCKzyOv6Geyds.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":2332,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":54005,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":53879,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00f6nelik sinyaller dalgal\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem ALK\u0130N","content":" OECD\u2019nin k\u00fcresel ekonominin gidi\u015fat\u0131na dair son de\u011ferlendirmeleri, ABD hari\u00e7, Avrupa Birli\u011fi, Kanada, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k, Avustralya ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n birle\u015fik, yani hem imalat sanayi hem de hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi (PMI) \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n seyrinin zay\u0131f gitti\u011fine, Kanada\u2019daki negatif tablonun hayli a\u011f\u0131r bir tempoda toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131na, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ise ABD hari\u00e7, di\u011fer ekonomilerin PMI de\u011ferlerinin tekrar 50 puana do\u011fru performans kayb\u0131 ya\u015fayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, BRICS \u00fclkeleri olarak, toparlanm\u0131\u015f olan Brezilya\u2019da bir miktar performans kayb\u0131, yatay seyreden \u00c7in\u2019de toparlanma ve y\u00fckseli\u015f bekleniyor.Hindistan, bu grup \u00fclkeler i\u00e7erisinde performans\u0131 g\u00f6receli olarak y\u00fcksek seyreden bir ekonomi olma \u00f6zelli\u011fi g\u00f6sterirken, G\u00fcney Afrika\u2019n\u0131n ini\u015fli \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fl\u0131 PMI performans\u0131n\u0131n negatif d\u00fczeyde devam etti\u011fi g\u00f6zlemleniyor. K\u00fcresel ekonomideki toparlanma b\u00f6lgesel farkl\u0131l\u0131klar g\u00f6steriyor ve bu tablo \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde OECD ekonomistleri, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel ekonominin y\u00fczde 3.3 seviyesinde b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fine dair beklentilerini korumay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. K\u00fcresel ekonomide g\u00fcncel ekonomik geli\u015fmeler b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu sinyaller vermese de, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ili\u015fkin riskler Japonya ve Meksika i\u00e7in negatif olsa da,\u00a0<\/span>OECD\u2019nin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri Endonezya, Hindistan ve T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in pozitif y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir beklentiye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> DEZENFLASYON S\u00dcREC\u0130 HIZ KEST\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> 2021\u2019den itibaren, k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n birinci y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n geride kalmas\u0131yla ba\u015flayan ve Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte adeta katlanan k\u00fcresel enflasyonist s\u00fcre\u00e7, 2023\u2019\u00fcn ilkbahar\u0131 ile birlikte yerini bir gerileme d\u00f6nemine b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f olsa da, dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin son 4 ayd\u0131r h\u0131z kesti\u011fi de bir ger\u00e7ek. Nitekim, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyonda, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l\u0131n aral\u0131k ay\u0131na g\u00f6re, \u0130talya ve Avustralya daha belirgin bir art\u0131\u015fla Meksika, Suudi Arabistan, Hindistan, Japonya ve \u00c7in ise daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fckselmi\u015f bir enflasyon ile yaz d\u00f6nemine girmi\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Bununla birlikte, enflasyonist bask\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131smen k\u0131p\u0131rdam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni, \u00fclke baz\u0131nda ve sekt\u00f6rel bazda farkl\u0131l\u0131klar g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u0130\u015eS\u0130ZL\u0130K ORANLARI<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc d\u00fczeyinde ise k\u00fcresel enflasyon d\u00fczeyinde yap\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k halen s\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve bu durum k\u00fcresel dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinin h\u0131z\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu noktada, maliyet enflasyonunun alt ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 olarak, S\u00fcvey\u015f Kanal\u0131\u2019ndaki jeopolitik gerginlikler ve Panama Kanal\u0131\u2019ndaki sorunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak de\u011fi\u015fen rotalar ile navlun fiyatlar\u0131 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n nisan ay\u0131ndan bu yana art\u0131\u015f kaydediyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ayn\u0131 k\u00fcresel ve b\u00f6lgesel jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin olumsuzluklar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, enerji fiyatlar\u0131 daha istikrarl\u0131 bir seyri koruyor g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. \u0130stihdam piyasalar\u0131nda ise t\u00fcm k\u00fcresel dalgalanma ve zorluklara ra\u011fmen g\u00f6receli olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn devam ediyor olmas\u0131 sevindirici.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> OECD \u00fcyesi \u00fclkelerin t\u00fcm\u00fcnde, i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131 tarihi en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine g\u00f6re hayli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyede seyretmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 2004 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana, tarihi d\u00fczeyde en y\u00fcksek i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f olan \u00fclkeler olarak Latin Amerika \u00fclkeleri, Balt\u0131k \u00fclkeleri, kimi Do\u011fu Avrupa \u00fclkeleri Yunanistan, \u0130spanya, ABD ve \u0130rlanda \u015fu anda daha iyi i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 d\u00fczeyinde. T\u00fcrkiye de tarihi y\u00fcksek seviyesine g\u00f6re i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131 geriletmeyi ba\u015farm\u0131\u015f durumda. K\u00fcresel ticareti ise 2015-2019 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 bir seviyede tutsa da, k\u00fcresel ticari aktivitenin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6receli olarak yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 etkisini de takip etmek gerekecek.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"kuresel-buyumeye-yonelik-sinyaller-dalgali","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1721595600KeJCKzyOv6Geyds.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1721595600KeJCKzyOv6Geyds.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":2332,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}
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