{"status":true,"post":{"id":33865,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 21:29:19","created_at":"2022-06-30T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T18:29:19.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":33865,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u2018K\u0131yamet senaryosu\u2019na k\u00fcresel \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm m\u00fccadelesi","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi-politik platformlarda ve uluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015flarda son bir ay\u0131n konusu \u2018k\u0131yamet senaryosu\u2019. K\u0131yamet senaryosu; d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin ve uluslararas\u0131 siyaset alan\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 \u00f6nemli tehdit, enerji tehdidi, g\u0131da ve beslenme tehdidi ve k\u00fcresel tedarik zinciri tehdidinin boyutlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki sonbahardan itibaren daha da y\u00f6netilemez seviyelere ula\u015fmas\u0131 ve milyarca insan\u0131n hayat\u0131n\u0131 alt \u00fcst etmesi olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor. T\u00fcm Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n sonbahar ve k\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nmadan, hatta baz\u0131 temel besin maddelerini zaman zaman bulamadan ge\u00e7irmesinden s\u00f6z ediyoruz. Afrika\u2019dan ba\u015flayarak, d\u00fcnya genelinde 350 ile 500 milyon aras\u0131nda olabilece\u011fi tahmin edilen insan\u0131n en iyi ko\u015fullarda haftada bir beslenebilmesinden s\u00f6z ediyoruz.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> D\u00fcnya ekonomisi zaten Covid-19 k\u00fcresel pandemisinden dolay\u0131 a\u011f\u0131r darbe alm\u0131\u015fken, zaten k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte i\u015fsizlik rakamlar\u0131 2019 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re 21 milyon ki\u015fi daha eklenerek, 2022 sonunda 207 milyona ula\u015facak iken, ba\u015fta \u00c7in\u2019in \u2018s\u0131f\u0131r Covid vakas\u0131\u2019 stratejisi nedeniyle k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirinde, d\u00fcnya b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcnde pek \u00e7ok hammadde, ara mamul ve nihai mamule ula\u015fmak h\u00e2l\u00e2 sorunlu iken; Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sebep oldu\u011fu k\u00fcresel enerji arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi krizi ve k\u00fcresel g\u0131da g\u00fcvenli\u011fi krizi, iki \u2018siyah ku\u011fu\u2019nun ana ve art\u00e7\u0131 sars\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131, k\u00fcresel sistemdeki t\u00fcm akt\u00f6rleri adeta bir k\u0131yamet senaryosu ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f durumda. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>\u0130HRACATI KISITLAYICI TEDB\u0130RLER<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> K\u0131yamet senaryosuyla ilgili alg\u0131, endi\u015fe o kadar ciddi boyutlarda ki, \u00c7in ve Hindistan gibi ekonomiler, t\u00fcm ele\u015ftirilere ra\u011fmen ihracat\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 tedbirleri yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015f durumdalar. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, bilhassa y\u00fcksek n\u00fcfusa sahip ve y\u00fckselen bir ya\u015fam standard\u0131 yakalam\u0131\u015f olan Do\u011fu Asya ve G\u00fcney Do\u011fu Asya ekonomileri, \u00f6ncelikle kendi i\u00e7 taleplerini, kendi halklar\u0131n\u0131n beklentilerini kar\u015f\u0131lamalar\u0131 gerekti\u011finin fark\u0131ndalar. Rafinerilerinden d\u00fcnya ekonomisine dizel ihracat\u0131 yapan \u00c7in, k\u00fcresel enerji arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi sorununun ne kadar devam edece\u011fini kestirememesi nedeniyle neredeyse ihracat\u0131n\u0131 kesmi\u015f durumda ve bu durum ister istemez dizel yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ciddi manada y\u00fckseltiyor. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, k\u00fcresel iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle m\u00fccadelede en kritik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc sa\u011flayan yenilenebilir enerji alan\u0131ndaki teknoloji \u00c7in\u2019in sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 komponent \u00fcr\u00fcnlerden, nadir mineral ve metallerden de beslendi\u011finden, otomotiv ve elektronik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn yar\u0131 iletkenleri ve \u00e7ipleri de Uzak Do\u011fu\u2019dan geldi\u011finden, sekt\u00f6rlerin t\u00fcm\u00fcnde ciddi bir maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sorunu ya\u015fan\u0131yor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>G20 VE OECD POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Ancak, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin \u00f6nde gelen \u00fclkelerinin k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta bu derece ciddi bir \u2018maliyet enflasyonu\u2019 riskini nas\u0131l y\u00f6netecekleri, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ciddi art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steren enerji, g\u0131da ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretim maliyetlerine yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l dengeleyecekleri konusunda zihinleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, \u00f6nde gelen ekonomilerin \u00e7o\u011fu, Covid-19 \u00f6ncesinde dahi ciddi b\u00fct\u00e7e ve kamu borcu sorununa sahipken; k\u00fcresel pandemi ve sava\u015f\u0131n etkilerini bertaraf edecek tedbirler, b\u00fct\u00e7e ve kamu borcu sorununun daha da katlanmas\u0131na sebep oldu. K\u00fcresel maliyet enflasyonu korkusu ile ekonomileri so\u011futacak, a\u011f\u0131r resesyona sokacak tedbirler ise stagflasyonu, y\u00fcksek i\u015fsizli\u011fi de tetikleyecek. Bu nedenle, sonbaharda, k\u0131yamet senaryosuna kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm m\u00fccadelesinin gerek G20, gerekse de OECD \u00fcyesi \u00fclkelerce daha ayaklar\u0131 yere basan fikirler ve politikalarla ilerlemesi gerekecek.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"kiyamet-senaryosuna-kuresel-cozum-mucadelesi","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u2018K\u0131yamet senaryosu\u2019na k\u00fcresel \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm m\u00fccadelesi","meta_description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1097,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":33964,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":33865,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u2018K\u0131yamet senaryosu\u2019na k\u00fcresel \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm m\u00fccadelesi","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi-politik platformlarda ve uluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015flarda son bir ay\u0131n konusu \u2018k\u0131yamet senaryosu\u2019. K\u0131yamet senaryosu; d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin ve uluslararas\u0131 siyaset alan\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 \u00f6nemli tehdit, enerji tehdidi, g\u0131da ve beslenme tehdidi ve k\u00fcresel tedarik zinciri tehdidinin boyutlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki sonbahardan itibaren daha da y\u00f6netilemez seviyelere ula\u015fmas\u0131 ve milyarca insan\u0131n hayat\u0131n\u0131 alt \u00fcst etmesi olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor. T\u00fcm Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n sonbahar ve k\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nmadan, hatta baz\u0131 temel besin maddelerini zaman zaman bulamadan ge\u00e7irmesinden s\u00f6z ediyoruz. Afrika\u2019dan ba\u015flayarak, d\u00fcnya genelinde 350 ile 500 milyon aras\u0131nda olabilece\u011fi tahmin edilen insan\u0131n en iyi ko\u015fullarda haftada bir beslenebilmesinden s\u00f6z ediyoruz.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> D\u00fcnya ekonomisi zaten Covid-19 k\u00fcresel pandemisinden dolay\u0131 a\u011f\u0131r darbe alm\u0131\u015fken, zaten k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte i\u015fsizlik rakamlar\u0131 2019 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re 21 milyon ki\u015fi daha eklenerek, 2022 sonunda 207 milyona ula\u015facak iken, ba\u015fta \u00c7in\u2019in \u2018s\u0131f\u0131r Covid vakas\u0131\u2019 stratejisi nedeniyle k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirinde, d\u00fcnya b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcnde pek \u00e7ok hammadde, ara mamul ve nihai mamule ula\u015fmak h\u00e2l\u00e2 sorunlu iken; Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sebep oldu\u011fu k\u00fcresel enerji arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi krizi ve k\u00fcresel g\u0131da g\u00fcvenli\u011fi krizi, iki \u2018siyah ku\u011fu\u2019nun ana ve art\u00e7\u0131 sars\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131, k\u00fcresel sistemdeki t\u00fcm akt\u00f6rleri adeta bir k\u0131yamet senaryosu ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f durumda. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>\u0130HRACATI KISITLAYICI TEDB\u0130RLER<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> K\u0131yamet senaryosuyla ilgili alg\u0131, endi\u015fe o kadar ciddi boyutlarda ki, \u00c7in ve Hindistan gibi ekonomiler, t\u00fcm ele\u015ftirilere ra\u011fmen ihracat\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 tedbirleri yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015f durumdalar. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, bilhassa y\u00fcksek n\u00fcfusa sahip ve y\u00fckselen bir ya\u015fam standard\u0131 yakalam\u0131\u015f olan Do\u011fu Asya ve G\u00fcney Do\u011fu Asya ekonomileri, \u00f6ncelikle kendi i\u00e7 taleplerini, kendi halklar\u0131n\u0131n beklentilerini kar\u015f\u0131lamalar\u0131 gerekti\u011finin fark\u0131ndalar. Rafinerilerinden d\u00fcnya ekonomisine dizel ihracat\u0131 yapan \u00c7in, k\u00fcresel enerji arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi sorununun ne kadar devam edece\u011fini kestirememesi nedeniyle neredeyse ihracat\u0131n\u0131 kesmi\u015f durumda ve bu durum ister istemez dizel yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ciddi manada y\u00fckseltiyor. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, k\u00fcresel iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle m\u00fccadelede en kritik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc sa\u011flayan yenilenebilir enerji alan\u0131ndaki teknoloji \u00c7in\u2019in sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 komponent \u00fcr\u00fcnlerden, nadir mineral ve metallerden de beslendi\u011finden, otomotiv ve elektronik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn yar\u0131 iletkenleri ve \u00e7ipleri de Uzak Do\u011fu\u2019dan geldi\u011finden, sekt\u00f6rlerin t\u00fcm\u00fcnde ciddi bir maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sorunu ya\u015fan\u0131yor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>G20 VE OECD POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Ancak, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin \u00f6nde gelen \u00fclkelerinin k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta bu derece ciddi bir \u2018maliyet enflasyonu\u2019 riskini nas\u0131l y\u00f6netecekleri, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ciddi art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steren enerji, g\u0131da ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretim maliyetlerine yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l dengeleyecekleri konusunda zihinleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, \u00f6nde gelen ekonomilerin \u00e7o\u011fu, Covid-19 \u00f6ncesinde dahi ciddi b\u00fct\u00e7e ve kamu borcu sorununa sahipken; k\u00fcresel pandemi ve sava\u015f\u0131n etkilerini bertaraf edecek tedbirler, b\u00fct\u00e7e ve kamu borcu sorununun daha da katlanmas\u0131na sebep oldu. K\u00fcresel maliyet enflasyonu korkusu ile ekonomileri so\u011futacak, a\u011f\u0131r resesyona sokacak tedbirler ise stagflasyonu, y\u00fcksek i\u015fsizli\u011fi de tetikleyecek. Bu nedenle, sonbaharda, k\u0131yamet senaryosuna kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm m\u00fccadelesinin gerek G20, gerekse de OECD \u00fcyesi \u00fclkelerce daha ayaklar\u0131 yere basan fikirler ve politikalarla ilerlemesi gerekecek.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"kiyamet-senaryosuna-kuresel-cozum-mucadelesi","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u2018K\u0131yamet senaryosu\u2019na k\u00fcresel \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm m\u00fccadelesi","meta_description":"PROF. DR. 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