{"status":true,"post":{"id":25132,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 15:01:18","created_at":"2021-02-25T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T12:01:18.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":25132,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u0130yimser senaryo a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in 2021 y\u0131l\u0131na ba\u015flarken iki ana senaryo bulunuyordu. A\u015f\u0131lama ile \u015fekillenen iki senaryodan iyimser senaryo, a\u015f\u0131laman\u0131n yayg\u0131n olarak uygulanmas\u0131, a\u015f\u0131lama sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131 ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n kademeli olarak kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eriyordu. \u0130kinci senaryo ise a\u015f\u0131n\u0131n uygulamas\u0131 ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131nda ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olunmas\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 kaps\u0131yordu. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk 2 ay\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rak\u0131rken d\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ya\u015fanan ilerlemeler iyimser senaryoya yakla\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. <\/span>
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1 - D\u00dcNYA GENEL\u0130NDE A\u015eILAMA HIZLANIYOR, ANCAK E\u015e\u0130TS\u0130ZL\u0130K END\u0130\u015eELER\u0130 DE VAR <\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
D\u00fcnya genelinde a\u015f\u0131 uygulamas\u0131 h\u0131zlanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Halen onay alan 7 a\u015f\u0131 kullan\u0131l\u0131rken, 3 a\u015f\u0131 da onay bekliyor. \u00c7ok say\u0131da a\u015f\u0131n\u0131n test a\u015famalar\u0131 da s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u015eimdilik 2 a\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in ilk uygulama sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 da y\u00fcksek ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu iyimser geli\u015fmeler \u00fcmit verirken, \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 a\u015f\u0131 da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ve \u00f6zellikle az geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin a\u015f\u0131 ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131 konusunda ise endi\u015feler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. D\u00fcnya Sa\u011fl\u0131k \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc ve Covax giri\u015fimi, bu sorunun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Mart ay\u0131ndan itibaren a\u015f\u0131laman\u0131n daha da h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 ve yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. T\u00fcrkiye de 7 milyona yakla\u015fan a\u015f\u0131lama ile en \u00e7ok a\u015f\u0131 yapan 7. \u00fclke konumunda bulunuyor. D\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki a\u015f\u0131lama ilerlemeleri iyimserli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. <\/span>
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2 - \u0130Y\u0130MSER SENARYOYU \u00d6NCE MAL\u0130 P\u0130YASALAR SATIN ALIYOR <\/strong><\/span>
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K\u00fcresel mali piyasalar, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in iyimser senaryoyu \u015fimdiden sert \u015fekilde fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekten itibaren talebin her alanda artaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi ile \u00f6zellikle emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli art\u0131\u015flar ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Metal fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n kademeli olarak s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, 2021 y\u0131lsonu i\u00e7in 60 dolar\/varil olan hedefini daha \u015fubat ay\u0131nda a\u015ft\u0131. Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 \u00f6zellikle teknoloji ve medikal \u00fcr\u00fcnler sekt\u00f6rleri \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde her g\u00fcn yeni bir rekor seviyeye ula\u015f\u0131yor. Temelsiz fiyatlanan kripto paralarda b\u00fcy\u00fck oynakl\u0131klar ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Mali piyasalar bir yandan iyimser senaryoya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 se\u00e7erken, di\u011fer yandan h\u0131zlanacak toparlanman\u0131n yaratabilece\u011fi enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 da uzun vadeli tahvillere yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye de ise mali piyasalarda ve varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131nda iki ayl\u0131k h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fler sonras\u0131 dura\u011fanl\u0131k ya\u015fan\u0131yor. <\/span>
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3 - REEL EKONOM\u0130 DE \u0130Y\u0130MSER SENARYO \u0130\u00c7\u0130N HAZIRLIK YAPIYOR <\/strong><\/span>
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Reel ekonomi taraf\u0131nda da a\u015f\u0131lamadaki iyimserli\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u00f6zellikle y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde kuvvetli bir talep geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentisi bulunuyor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak k\u00fcresel sanayi \u00fcretimi ve ihracatta y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 2 ay\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme devam etti. Al\u0131nan i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f sipari\u015flerde art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fan\u0131yor. \u00c7in, ilk kez bu y\u0131l tatilde fabrikalar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k tutarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. ABD\u2019de ve Almanya\u2019da sanayi \u00fcretimleri en y\u00fcksek seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131. Ticaretteki geni\u015fleme ile y\u00fcksek navlun fiyatlar\u0131 ve konteyner s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 da s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Reel sekt\u00f6rde a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak imalat sanayi ikinci \u00e7eyrekte h\u0131zl\u0131 bir talep geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentisi ile hareket ediyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de sanayi \u00fcretimi ve ihracatta yeni y\u0131lda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. K\u00fcresel iyimserlik T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat\u0131n\u0131 da olumlu etkiliyor.<\/span>
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4 - \u0130Y\u0130LE\u015eMEDE SEKT\u00d6R FARKLILIKLARI S\u00dcRECEK, DESTEKLER S\u00dcRMEL\u0130 <\/strong><\/span>
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K\u00fcresel alanda ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de iyimser senaryoya yakla\u015f\u0131lmakla birlikte toparlanma \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemler itibariyle sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda farkl\u0131l\u0131klar g\u00f6stermeye devam edecek. \u00d6ncelikle ikinci \u00e7eyrekte imalat sanayinin kapal\u0131 olan fabrikalar\u0131 ve hatlar\u0131 devreye girecek. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte turizm ve hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde kademeli geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fler olacak. S\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi seyahatler ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler ise d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte k\u0131s\u0131tlamalardan kurtulmaya ba\u015flayacak. \u0130yimser senaryoda dahi hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda kademeli bir iyile\u015fme i\u00e7inde olacak. Kal\u0131c\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte, i\u015fe ve okullara kal\u0131c\u0131 geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ise d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte ba\u015flayacak. Bu nedenle h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin y\u0131lsonuna kadar bir\u00e7ok alanda desteklerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi gerekecek. <\/span>
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SON S\u00d6Z <\/strong><\/span>
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T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de iyimser senaryonun f\u0131rsatlar\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in reformlar\u0131 bir an \u00f6nce ba\u015flatmal\u0131y\u0131z, kamu desteklerini y\u0131lsonuna kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeliyiz, firmalar olarak da haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 yapmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"iyimser-senaryo-agirlik-kazanmaya-basladi","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u0130yimser senaryo a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1111,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":25231,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":25132,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u0130yimser senaryo a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in 2021 y\u0131l\u0131na ba\u015flarken iki ana senaryo bulunuyordu. A\u015f\u0131lama ile \u015fekillenen iki senaryodan iyimser senaryo, a\u015f\u0131laman\u0131n yayg\u0131n olarak uygulanmas\u0131, a\u015f\u0131lama sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131 ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n kademeli olarak kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eriyordu. \u0130kinci senaryo ise a\u015f\u0131n\u0131n uygulamas\u0131 ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131nda ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olunmas\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 kaps\u0131yordu. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk 2 ay\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rak\u0131rken d\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ya\u015fanan ilerlemeler iyimser senaryoya yakla\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. <\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
1 - D\u00dcNYA GENEL\u0130NDE A\u015eILAMA HIZLANIYOR, ANCAK E\u015e\u0130TS\u0130ZL\u0130K END\u0130\u015eELER\u0130 DE VAR <\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
D\u00fcnya genelinde a\u015f\u0131 uygulamas\u0131 h\u0131zlanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Halen onay alan 7 a\u015f\u0131 kullan\u0131l\u0131rken, 3 a\u015f\u0131 da onay bekliyor. \u00c7ok say\u0131da a\u015f\u0131n\u0131n test a\u015famalar\u0131 da s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u015eimdilik 2 a\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in ilk uygulama sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 da y\u00fcksek ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu iyimser geli\u015fmeler \u00fcmit verirken, \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 a\u015f\u0131 da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ve \u00f6zellikle az geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin a\u015f\u0131 ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131 konusunda ise endi\u015feler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. D\u00fcnya Sa\u011fl\u0131k \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc ve Covax giri\u015fimi, bu sorunun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Mart ay\u0131ndan itibaren a\u015f\u0131laman\u0131n daha da h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 ve yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. T\u00fcrkiye de 7 milyona yakla\u015fan a\u015f\u0131lama ile en \u00e7ok a\u015f\u0131 yapan 7. \u00fclke konumunda bulunuyor. D\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki a\u015f\u0131lama ilerlemeleri iyimserli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. <\/span>
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2 - \u0130Y\u0130MSER SENARYOYU \u00d6NCE MAL\u0130 P\u0130YASALAR SATIN ALIYOR <\/strong><\/span>
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K\u00fcresel mali piyasalar, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in iyimser senaryoyu \u015fimdiden sert \u015fekilde fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekten itibaren talebin her alanda artaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi ile \u00f6zellikle emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli art\u0131\u015flar ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Metal fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n kademeli olarak s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, 2021 y\u0131lsonu i\u00e7in 60 dolar\/varil olan hedefini daha \u015fubat ay\u0131nda a\u015ft\u0131. Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 \u00f6zellikle teknoloji ve medikal \u00fcr\u00fcnler sekt\u00f6rleri \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde her g\u00fcn yeni bir rekor seviyeye ula\u015f\u0131yor. Temelsiz fiyatlanan kripto paralarda b\u00fcy\u00fck oynakl\u0131klar ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Mali piyasalar bir yandan iyimser senaryoya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 se\u00e7erken, di\u011fer yandan h\u0131zlanacak toparlanman\u0131n yaratabilece\u011fi enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 da uzun vadeli tahvillere yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye de ise mali piyasalarda ve varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131nda iki ayl\u0131k h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fler sonras\u0131 dura\u011fanl\u0131k ya\u015fan\u0131yor. <\/span>
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3 - REEL EKONOM\u0130 DE \u0130Y\u0130MSER SENARYO \u0130\u00c7\u0130N HAZIRLIK YAPIYOR <\/strong><\/span>
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Reel ekonomi taraf\u0131nda da a\u015f\u0131lamadaki iyimserli\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u00f6zellikle y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde kuvvetli bir talep geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentisi bulunuyor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak k\u00fcresel sanayi \u00fcretimi ve ihracatta y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 2 ay\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme devam etti. Al\u0131nan i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f sipari\u015flerde art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fan\u0131yor. \u00c7in, ilk kez bu y\u0131l tatilde fabrikalar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k tutarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. ABD\u2019de ve Almanya\u2019da sanayi \u00fcretimleri en y\u00fcksek seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131. Ticaretteki geni\u015fleme ile y\u00fcksek navlun fiyatlar\u0131 ve konteyner s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 da s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Reel sekt\u00f6rde a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak imalat sanayi ikinci \u00e7eyrekte h\u0131zl\u0131 bir talep geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentisi ile hareket ediyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de sanayi \u00fcretimi ve ihracatta yeni y\u0131lda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. K\u00fcresel iyimserlik T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat\u0131n\u0131 da olumlu etkiliyor.<\/span>
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4 - \u0130Y\u0130LE\u015eMEDE SEKT\u00d6R FARKLILIKLARI S\u00dcRECEK, DESTEKLER S\u00dcRMEL\u0130 <\/strong><\/span>
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K\u00fcresel alanda ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de iyimser senaryoya yakla\u015f\u0131lmakla birlikte toparlanma \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemler itibariyle sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda farkl\u0131l\u0131klar g\u00f6stermeye devam edecek. \u00d6ncelikle ikinci \u00e7eyrekte imalat sanayinin kapal\u0131 olan fabrikalar\u0131 ve hatlar\u0131 devreye girecek. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte turizm ve hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde kademeli geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fler olacak. S\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi seyahatler ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler ise d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte k\u0131s\u0131tlamalardan kurtulmaya ba\u015flayacak. \u0130yimser senaryoda dahi hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda kademeli bir iyile\u015fme i\u00e7inde olacak. Kal\u0131c\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte, i\u015fe ve okullara kal\u0131c\u0131 geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ise d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte ba\u015flayacak. Bu nedenle h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin y\u0131lsonuna kadar bir\u00e7ok alanda desteklerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi gerekecek. <\/span>
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SON S\u00d6Z <\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de iyimser senaryonun f\u0131rsatlar\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in reformlar\u0131 bir an \u00f6nce ba\u015flatmal\u0131y\u0131z, kamu desteklerini y\u0131lsonuna kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeliyiz, firmalar olarak da haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 yapmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"iyimser-senaryo-agirlik-kazanmaya-basladi","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u0130yimser senaryo a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131","meta_description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1111,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}