{"status":true,"post":{"id":20841,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:57:12","created_at":"2019-08-29T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:57:12.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":20841,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verilerinin verdi\u011fi sinyaller","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\"><strong>\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verilerinin verdi\u011fi sinyaller<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Analizlerin amac\u0131 mevcut verileri incelemek suretiyle gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik do\u011fru tahminler yaparak en do\u011fru kararlar\u0131n verilmesini sa\u011flamakt\u0131r.\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verileri de mevcut durumun do\u011fru tespit edilmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kullan\u0131labilecek \u00e7ok faydal\u0131 bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma olup T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu taraf\u0131ndan \u00fc\u00e7er ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemler halinde haz\u0131rlan\u0131p yay\u0131nlan\u0131yor.28 A\u011fustos 2018 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan b\u00fcltene g\u00f6re i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc girdi endeksleriII. \u00e7eyrek (Nisan-Haziran 2019) d\u00f6neminde azalma g\u00f6sterdi. \u015eimdi gelelim detaylara ve yorumlar\u0131m\u0131za. Sanayi, in\u015faat ve ticaret-hizmet sekt\u00f6rleri toplam\u0131nda takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f istihdam endeksi, 2019 II. \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 6.1 azald\u0131. Alt sekt\u00f6rler incelendi\u011finde, endeks; sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 3.2, in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 28.9 ve ticaret-hizmet sekt\u00f6rlerinde ise y\u00fczde 2.1 azalm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"> T\u00fcm verilerin resmi oldu\u011funu unutmamam\u0131zda fayda var. Mesela sigortas\u0131z eleman \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131ranlar\u0131n verileri burada eksik. \u00d6zellikle Suriyeli gibi asgari \u00fccret seviyesinin alt\u0131nda bir \u00fccretle sigortas\u0131z olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lan insanlar\u0131n bu verilere girme \u015fans\u0131 zaten yok. Ancak toplam istihdam verisi \u00fczerinde \u00e7ok ciddi bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olu\u015fturmayaca\u011f\u0131, kald\u0131 ki ge\u00e7en y\u0131lda da ayn\u0131 sorunun olmas\u0131 nedeniyle de\u011fi\u015fimlerde \u00f6nemli bir sapmaya yol a\u00e7mayaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla hareket ediyoruz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yukar\u0131daki paragrafta bahsetti\u011fimiz veri bizim i\u00e7in son derece anlaml\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Dikkatinizi \u00f6zellikle in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne \u00e7ekmek istiyorum. 2018 II. \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re istihdamdaki daralma 2019 II. \u00e7eyre\u011finde tam y\u00fczde 28.9 olup, son derece ciddi bir rakam. Sanayi, ticaret ve hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde daralma olsa da bu kadar ciddi oranlarda de\u011fil. Burada neredeyse bir \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlardan her \u00fc\u00e7 ki\u015fiden biri i\u015fsiz kalm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.Bu sene i\u00e7erisindeki genel gidi\u015fata yani bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re neler de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f bir bakal\u0131m. Mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f istihdam endeksi bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0.8 azald\u0131. Alt sekt\u00f6rler incelendi\u011finde, endeks; sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 0.3 artt\u0131. \u0130n\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 7.9 ve ticaret-hizmet sekt\u00f6rlerinde y\u00fczde 0.1 azald\u0131.<\/span><span class=\"large\">G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc 2019 ilk d\u00f6neminin de alt\u0131nda bir ikinci d\u00f6nem i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc girdi endeksine sahip olmu\u015f durumda. Sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re bir miktar toparlarken ticaret ve hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde pek bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Buradan sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re daha fazla istihdam olu\u015fturdu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmemizde fayda var. Yani \u00e7arklar bu sekt\u00f6rde daha iyi d\u00f6nmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f gibi duruyor.Bu arada \u015fu soru akl\u0131n\u0131za gelmi\u015f olabilir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>Acaba daha uzun s\u00fcre \u00e7al\u0131\u015farak istihdam d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olabilir mi?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"> Bu sorunun cevab\u0131 da yine ayn\u0131 b\u00fcltende \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan saat endeksi verileriyle veriliyor.<\/span><span class=\"large\">B\u00fcltene g\u00f6re; sanayi, in\u015faat ve ticaret-hizmet sekt\u00f6rleri toplam\u0131nda takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan saat endeksi, 2019 II. \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 9.2 azald\u0131. Alt sekt\u00f6rler incelendi\u011finde endeks; sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 6.6, in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 32.1 ve ticaret-hizmet sekt\u00f6rlerinde y\u00fczde 4.7 azald\u0131.Bu durumda k\u0131saca \u015fu tespiti yapabiliyoruz: 2018 ikinci \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k dilime g\u00f6re, 2019\u2019un ikinci \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde \u00f6zellikle in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere sanayi, in\u015faat ve ticaret-hizmet sekt\u00f6rlerinde hem istihdam endeksleri d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f hem de \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan saat endeksleri. Bu arada sanayi, in\u015faat ve ticaret-hizmet sekt\u00f6rleri toplam\u0131nda takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f saatlik i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyet endeksindeki y\u00fczde 30 art\u0131\u015f gelecekte maliyet enflasyonu riski olu\u015ftursa da i\u00e7 talebin canlanmas\u0131i\u00e7in elzem.Son s\u00f6z; rakamlar\u0131 iyi okuyamazsak do\u011fru zamanda b\u00fcy\u00fcyemez, do\u011fru zamanda da k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclemez ve silinip gideriz.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"isgucu-verilerinin-verdigi-sinyaller","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verilerinin verdi\u011fi sinyaller","meta_description":"Hikmet Baydar","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":423,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":20940,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":20841,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verilerinin verdi\u011fi sinyaller","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\"><strong>\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verilerinin verdi\u011fi sinyaller<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Analizlerin amac\u0131 mevcut verileri incelemek suretiyle gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik do\u011fru tahminler yaparak en do\u011fru kararlar\u0131n verilmesini sa\u011flamakt\u0131r.\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verileri de mevcut durumun do\u011fru tespit edilmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kullan\u0131labilecek \u00e7ok faydal\u0131 bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma olup T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu taraf\u0131ndan \u00fc\u00e7er ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemler halinde haz\u0131rlan\u0131p yay\u0131nlan\u0131yor.28 A\u011fustos 2018 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan b\u00fcltene g\u00f6re i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc girdi endeksleriII. \u00e7eyrek (Nisan-Haziran 2019) d\u00f6neminde azalma g\u00f6sterdi. \u015eimdi gelelim detaylara ve yorumlar\u0131m\u0131za. Sanayi, in\u015faat ve ticaret-hizmet sekt\u00f6rleri toplam\u0131nda takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f istihdam endeksi, 2019 II. \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 6.1 azald\u0131. Alt sekt\u00f6rler incelendi\u011finde, endeks; sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 3.2, in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 28.9 ve ticaret-hizmet sekt\u00f6rlerinde ise y\u00fczde 2.1 azalm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"> T\u00fcm verilerin resmi oldu\u011funu unutmamam\u0131zda fayda var. Mesela sigortas\u0131z eleman \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131ranlar\u0131n verileri burada eksik. \u00d6zellikle Suriyeli gibi asgari \u00fccret seviyesinin alt\u0131nda bir \u00fccretle sigortas\u0131z olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lan insanlar\u0131n bu verilere girme \u015fans\u0131 zaten yok. Ancak toplam istihdam verisi \u00fczerinde \u00e7ok ciddi bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olu\u015fturmayaca\u011f\u0131, kald\u0131 ki ge\u00e7en y\u0131lda da ayn\u0131 sorunun olmas\u0131 nedeniyle de\u011fi\u015fimlerde \u00f6nemli bir sapmaya yol a\u00e7mayaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla hareket ediyoruz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yukar\u0131daki paragrafta bahsetti\u011fimiz veri bizim i\u00e7in son derece anlaml\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Dikkatinizi \u00f6zellikle in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne \u00e7ekmek istiyorum. 2018 II. \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re istihdamdaki daralma 2019 II. \u00e7eyre\u011finde tam y\u00fczde 28.9 olup, son derece ciddi bir rakam. Sanayi, ticaret ve hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde daralma olsa da bu kadar ciddi oranlarda de\u011fil. Burada neredeyse bir \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlardan her \u00fc\u00e7 ki\u015fiden biri i\u015fsiz kalm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.Bu sene i\u00e7erisindeki genel gidi\u015fata yani bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re neler de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f bir bakal\u0131m. Mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f istihdam endeksi bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0.8 azald\u0131. Alt sekt\u00f6rler incelendi\u011finde, endeks; sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 0.3 artt\u0131. \u0130n\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 7.9 ve ticaret-hizmet sekt\u00f6rlerinde y\u00fczde 0.1 azald\u0131.<\/span><span class=\"large\">G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc 2019 ilk d\u00f6neminin de alt\u0131nda bir ikinci d\u00f6nem i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc girdi endeksine sahip olmu\u015f durumda. Sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re bir miktar toparlarken ticaret ve hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde pek bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Buradan sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re daha fazla istihdam olu\u015fturdu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmemizde fayda var. Yani \u00e7arklar bu sekt\u00f6rde daha iyi d\u00f6nmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f gibi duruyor.Bu arada \u015fu soru akl\u0131n\u0131za gelmi\u015f olabilir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>Acaba daha uzun s\u00fcre \u00e7al\u0131\u015farak istihdam d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olabilir mi?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"> Bu sorunun cevab\u0131 da yine ayn\u0131 b\u00fcltende \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan saat endeksi verileriyle veriliyor.<\/span><span class=\"large\">B\u00fcltene g\u00f6re; sanayi, in\u015faat ve ticaret-hizmet sekt\u00f6rleri toplam\u0131nda takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan saat endeksi, 2019 II. \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 9.2 azald\u0131. Alt sekt\u00f6rler incelendi\u011finde endeks; sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 6.6, in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 32.1 ve ticaret-hizmet sekt\u00f6rlerinde y\u00fczde 4.7 azald\u0131.Bu durumda k\u0131saca \u015fu tespiti yapabiliyoruz: 2018 ikinci \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k dilime g\u00f6re, 2019\u2019un ikinci \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde \u00f6zellikle in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere sanayi, in\u015faat ve ticaret-hizmet sekt\u00f6rlerinde hem istihdam endeksleri d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f hem de \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan saat endeksleri. Bu arada sanayi, in\u015faat ve ticaret-hizmet sekt\u00f6rleri toplam\u0131nda takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f saatlik i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyet endeksindeki y\u00fczde 30 art\u0131\u015f gelecekte maliyet enflasyonu riski olu\u015ftursa da i\u00e7 talebin canlanmas\u0131i\u00e7in elzem.Son s\u00f6z; rakamlar\u0131 iyi okuyamazsak do\u011fru zamanda b\u00fcy\u00fcyemez, do\u011fru zamanda da k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclemez ve silinip gideriz.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"isgucu-verilerinin-verdigi-sinyaller","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verilerinin verdi\u011fi sinyaller","meta_description":"Hikmet Baydar","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":423,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}