{"status":true,"post":{"id":24763,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:53:18","created_at":"2021-02-04T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:53:18.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":24763,"is_featured":0,"title":"IMF\u2019den pembe tablo","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">IMF, ekonomik tahminlerde ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 say\u0131labilecek bir kurum de\u011fil. Tahminleri \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ya a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fcmserdir ya da a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 iyimser. Aras\u0131n\u0131 bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc bulam\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2020\u2019de y\u00fczde 5 daralaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyordu. Ancak, nihai rakamlar a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2020\u2019de y\u00fczde 1\u2019in \u00fczerinde bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetti\u011fini g\u00f6rme ihtimalimiz y\u00fcksek. Bu sefer karamsar tutumdan s\u0131yr\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131lan IMF, 2021\u2019e dair pembe bir tablo \u00e7izdi. D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019nda k\u00fcresel ekonomiye dair 2021 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini y\u00fczde 5.2\u2019den y\u00fczde 5.5\u2019e revize etti. B\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini yukar\u0131 do\u011fru en fazla revize edilen \u00fclkeler; Hindistan, ABD ve T\u00fcrkiye. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2021\u2019e dair b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 5\u2019ten y\u00fczde 6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>A\u015eILAMA YAVA\u015e \u0130LERL\u0130YOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">IMF\u2019nin bu y\u0131lki tahminlerinin iyimser oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Mali te\u015fviklere ve a\u015f\u0131ya ra\u011fmen hen\u00fcz t\u00fcm risklerin ve belirsizliklerin ortadan kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. A\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretimine ve da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m\u0131na dair Avrupa\u2019da ya\u015fanan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 biliyoruz. AB\u2019de a\u015f\u0131lama, beklenenden yava\u015f ilerliyor. Ayr\u0131ca bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkenin a\u015f\u0131ya eri\u015fim konusunda kolektif bilin\u00e7ten uzak, olduk\u00e7a bencil hareket ettiklerini de g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Riskli gruba dahil olsun olmas\u0131n, benim insan\u0131m a\u015f\u0131ya ula\u015fs\u0131n da az geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde sa\u011fl\u0131k \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n\u0131n bile a\u015f\u0131ya eri\u015fip eri\u015fmedi\u011fi umurumda olmaz mant\u0131\u011f\u0131, k\u00fcresel istikrara ciddi zarar verir. Neredeyse b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fclkeler k\u00fcresel ekonomiye entegre durumda. A\u015f\u0131ya makul miktarlarda ula\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ekonomik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 devam edecek bir \u00fclke, di\u011ferlerini de olumsuz etkiler. Di\u015flilerden birinin \u00e7al\u0131\u015famamas\u0131 k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirini yava\u015flat\u0131r. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>AVRUPA \u0130\u00c7\u0130N TAHM\u0130NLER D\u00dc\u015eT\u00dc<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Mali te\u015fviklerin yeterlili\u011fi konusunda da soru i\u015faretleri var. Baz\u0131 Avrupa \u00fclkelerinin hazine bakanlar\u0131, AB\u2019nin ortaya koydu\u011fu kurtarma fonuna eri\u015fimin \u00e7ok kat\u0131 kurallara ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fundan yak\u0131n\u0131yorlar. Son olarak, IMF\u2019nin de raporunda belirtti\u011fi gibi, vir\u00fcs\u00fcn mutasyonundan kaynaklanabilecek riskler var. K\u00fcresel ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 6 ay \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re kesinlikle daha iyi bir noktaday\u0131z. Ama vir\u00fcs\u00fcn neden oldu\u011fu kapanmalar devam ederken, k\u00fcresel ekonominin y\u00fczde 5.5\u2019lik bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yakalamas\u0131 kolay olmayabilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Gelelim T\u00fcrkiye taraf\u0131na. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele etmek ve kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in faizler artm\u0131\u015f durumda. Kredi piyasas\u0131 yava\u015flad\u0131. \u0130\u00e7 piyasada bunlar ya\u015fan\u0131rken, en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret partnerimiz Avrupa\u2019dan gelen haberler de \u00e7ok parlak de\u011fil. IMF, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini yukar\u0131 kayd\u0131rsa da bir\u00e7ok Avrupa \u00fclkesi i\u00e7in tahminlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekti. Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6\u2019dan ziyade T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin y\u00fczde 4\u2019ler civar\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetmesi daha olas\u0131 gibi duruyor.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"imfden-pembe-tablo","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"IMF\u2019den pembe tablo","meta_description":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1130,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":24862,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":24763,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"IMF\u2019den pembe tablo","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">IMF, ekonomik tahminlerde ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 say\u0131labilecek bir kurum de\u011fil. Tahminleri \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ya a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fcmserdir ya da a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 iyimser. Aras\u0131n\u0131 bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc bulam\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2020\u2019de y\u00fczde 5 daralaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyordu. Ancak, nihai rakamlar a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2020\u2019de y\u00fczde 1\u2019in \u00fczerinde bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetti\u011fini g\u00f6rme ihtimalimiz y\u00fcksek. Bu sefer karamsar tutumdan s\u0131yr\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131lan IMF, 2021\u2019e dair pembe bir tablo \u00e7izdi. D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019nda k\u00fcresel ekonomiye dair 2021 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini y\u00fczde 5.2\u2019den y\u00fczde 5.5\u2019e revize etti. B\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini yukar\u0131 do\u011fru en fazla revize edilen \u00fclkeler; Hindistan, ABD ve T\u00fcrkiye. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2021\u2019e dair b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 5\u2019ten y\u00fczde 6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>A\u015eILAMA YAVA\u015e \u0130LERL\u0130YOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">IMF\u2019nin bu y\u0131lki tahminlerinin iyimser oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Mali te\u015fviklere ve a\u015f\u0131ya ra\u011fmen hen\u00fcz t\u00fcm risklerin ve belirsizliklerin ortadan kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. A\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretimine ve da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m\u0131na dair Avrupa\u2019da ya\u015fanan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 biliyoruz. AB\u2019de a\u015f\u0131lama, beklenenden yava\u015f ilerliyor. Ayr\u0131ca bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkenin a\u015f\u0131ya eri\u015fim konusunda kolektif bilin\u00e7ten uzak, olduk\u00e7a bencil hareket ettiklerini de g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Riskli gruba dahil olsun olmas\u0131n, benim insan\u0131m a\u015f\u0131ya ula\u015fs\u0131n da az geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde sa\u011fl\u0131k \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n\u0131n bile a\u015f\u0131ya eri\u015fip eri\u015fmedi\u011fi umurumda olmaz mant\u0131\u011f\u0131, k\u00fcresel istikrara ciddi zarar verir. Neredeyse b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fclkeler k\u00fcresel ekonomiye entegre durumda. A\u015f\u0131ya makul miktarlarda ula\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ekonomik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 devam edecek bir \u00fclke, di\u011ferlerini de olumsuz etkiler. Di\u015flilerden birinin \u00e7al\u0131\u015famamas\u0131 k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirini yava\u015flat\u0131r. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>***<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>AVRUPA \u0130\u00c7\u0130N TAHM\u0130NLER D\u00dc\u015eT\u00dc<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Mali te\u015fviklerin yeterlili\u011fi konusunda da soru i\u015faretleri var. Baz\u0131 Avrupa \u00fclkelerinin hazine bakanlar\u0131, AB\u2019nin ortaya koydu\u011fu kurtarma fonuna eri\u015fimin \u00e7ok kat\u0131 kurallara ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fundan yak\u0131n\u0131yorlar. Son olarak, IMF\u2019nin de raporunda belirtti\u011fi gibi, vir\u00fcs\u00fcn mutasyonundan kaynaklanabilecek riskler var. K\u00fcresel ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 6 ay \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re kesinlikle daha iyi bir noktaday\u0131z. Ama vir\u00fcs\u00fcn neden oldu\u011fu kapanmalar devam ederken, k\u00fcresel ekonominin y\u00fczde 5.5\u2019lik bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yakalamas\u0131 kolay olmayabilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Gelelim T\u00fcrkiye taraf\u0131na. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele etmek ve kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in faizler artm\u0131\u015f durumda. Kredi piyasas\u0131 yava\u015flad\u0131. \u0130\u00e7 piyasada bunlar ya\u015fan\u0131rken, en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret partnerimiz Avrupa\u2019dan gelen haberler de \u00e7ok parlak de\u011fil. IMF, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini yukar\u0131 kayd\u0131rsa da bir\u00e7ok Avrupa \u00fclkesi i\u00e7in tahminlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekti. Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6\u2019dan ziyade T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin y\u00fczde 4\u2019ler civar\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetmesi daha olas\u0131 gibi duruyor.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"imfden-pembe-tablo","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"IMF\u2019den pembe tablo","meta_description":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Nurullah G\u00fcr","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1130,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}