{"status":true,"post":{"id":51499,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-05-06 09:53:00","created_at":"2024-05-06T06:53:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-05-06T06:53:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":51499,"is_featured":0,"title":"IMF: Verimlilik odakl\u0131 reformlar h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","content":"

keremalkin@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2008 k\u00fcresel finans krizi, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen 40 ekonomisinde \u2018konvansiyonel\u2019 metotlarla \u00fcretim yapan t\u00fcm reel sekt\u00f6r temsilcilerinin hayat\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu\u2019nun (IMF) iki uzman\u0131 Nan Li ve Diaa Noureldin\u2019in kaleme ald\u0131klar\u0131 \u2018D\u00fcnya Orta Vadeli B\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi Canland\u0131rmak \u0130\u00e7in Verimlilik Reformlar\u0131na \u00d6ncelik Vermeli\u2019 ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 rapor, verimlili\u011fi art\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik iddial\u0131 ad\u0131mlar at\u0131lmamas\u0131 halinde, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin tarihsel ortalaman\u0131n hayli alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. IMF\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi \u00e7evreleri ve d\u00fcnya kamuoyu ile payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri, 1995-2010 d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 4.2-4.9 ar\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndayken, son 15 y\u0131lda \u00f6nce y\u00fczde 4\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na, son d\u00f6nemde ise y\u00fczde 3\u2019e gerilemi\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

IMF\u2019ye g\u00f6re d\u00fcnya ekonomisi, d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel ini\u015f ve \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flardan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, k\u00fcresel finans krizinden bu yana istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair ciddi bir ger\u00e7ekle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Bu nedenle, verimlili\u011fi art\u0131racak kamu politikalar\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi olmadan ve yapay zeka gibi yeni geli\u015fen teknolojilerden yararlan\u0131lmadan, ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131n geri d\u00f6nmesi pek de olas\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor. IMF\u2019nin analizi, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ger\u00e7ek bir pazar rekabetine ve a\u00e7\u0131k bir k\u00fcresel ticarete, finansa kolay eri\u015fime ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 esnekli\u011fini art\u0131rmaya odaklanm\u0131\u015f politika eylemlerinin ancak k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi 2030\u2019a kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 1.2 puan art\u0131rabilece\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Yani, tekrar y\u00fczde 4-4.2 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme trendine d\u00f6nmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

YAPAY ZEKA\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Yapay zekan\u0131n halen i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verimlili\u011fini art\u0131rma potansiyeli belirsiz. Bununla birlikte, potansiyel olarak \u00f6nemli. IMF, yapay zekan\u0131n \u00fclkelerce ve sekt\u00f6rlerce benimsenmesine ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc \u00fczerindeki etkisine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak muhtemelen k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye 0.8 puanl\u0131k bir katk\u0131 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. IMF\u2019nin 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k ileriye y\u00f6nelik tahminlerine g\u00f6re, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2029\u2019a kadar, y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fcn biraz \u00fczerinde kalsa da ivme kaybedecek. IMF\u2019ye g\u00f6re bu durum k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ya\u015fam standartlar\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fmeyi tersine \u00e7evirme tehdidi olu\u015fturuyor. Zengin ve daha fakir \u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndaki yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme dengesizli\u011fi, iki \u00fclke grubu aras\u0131ndaki k\u00fcresel gelir yak\u0131nsamas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha da s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Yetmezmi\u015f gibi kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme senaryosu, y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131yla birle\u015ferek, k\u00fcresel borcun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fini de riske atabilir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

YA\u015eLANAN N\u00dcFUS<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye gibi kamu borcu ve b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan disiplini ka\u00e7\u0131rmamay\u0131 ba\u015farm\u0131\u015f birka\u00e7 \u00fclke d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, kamu bor\u00e7 stoku ve b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 zorlayan ekonomilerde, h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin ekonomik yava\u015flamaya kar\u015f\u0131 koyma, sosyal refah veya \u00e7evresel giri\u015fimlere yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma kapasitesi daha da k\u0131s\u0131tlanabilir. Dahas\u0131, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi sermaye mallar\u0131 (makina, te\u00e7hizat, fabrika) ve teknolojilere yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 cayd\u0131rabilir ve ne yaz\u0131k ki yava\u015flamay\u0131 da derinle\u015ftirebilir. K\u00fcresel i\u015fsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131ndan kaynaklanan huzursuzluk bir yana, \u00fcst\u00fcne binen \u2018jeoekonomik par\u00e7alanma\u2019dan kaynaklanan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc r\u00fczgarlar, zararl\u0131 tek tarafl\u0131 ticaret ve sanayi politikalar\u0131yla birlikte k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi zaten k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftiriyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu nedenle, \u015firketler ve firmalar aras\u0131nda i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ve sermaye mal\u0131 tahsisinin iyile\u015ftirilmesini, b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerdeki ya\u015flanan n\u00fcfustan kaynaklanan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n giderilmesini, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin temel itici g\u00fc\u00e7leri olan emek, sermaye mallar\u0131n\u0131n verimlili\u011fini, toplam fakt\u00f6r verimlili\u011fini art\u0131racak politikalara odaklanmak \u00f6ncelikli. IMF, ya\u015flanan n\u00fcfuslar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6\u00e7menleri i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kazand\u0131rarak \u00e7\u00f6zmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomiler i\u00e7in bunun kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Uluslararas\u0131 ekonomik te\u015fkilatlar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00fcndemi bu olacak.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"imf-verimlilik-odakli-reformlar-hizlandirilmali","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1714942800rF6mIK5xg0d4piw.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":4891,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":51625,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":51499,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"IMF: Verimlilik odakl\u0131 reformlar h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","content":"

keremalkin@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2008 k\u00fcresel finans krizi, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen 40 ekonomisinde \u2018konvansiyonel\u2019 metotlarla \u00fcretim yapan t\u00fcm reel sekt\u00f6r temsilcilerinin hayat\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu\u2019nun (IMF) iki uzman\u0131 Nan Li ve Diaa Noureldin\u2019in kaleme ald\u0131klar\u0131 \u2018D\u00fcnya Orta Vadeli B\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi Canland\u0131rmak \u0130\u00e7in Verimlilik Reformlar\u0131na \u00d6ncelik Vermeli\u2019 ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 rapor, verimlili\u011fi art\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik iddial\u0131 ad\u0131mlar at\u0131lmamas\u0131 halinde, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin tarihsel ortalaman\u0131n hayli alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. IMF\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi \u00e7evreleri ve d\u00fcnya kamuoyu ile payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri, 1995-2010 d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 4.2-4.9 ar\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndayken, son 15 y\u0131lda \u00f6nce y\u00fczde 4\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na, son d\u00f6nemde ise y\u00fczde 3\u2019e gerilemi\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

IMF\u2019ye g\u00f6re d\u00fcnya ekonomisi, d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel ini\u015f ve \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flardan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, k\u00fcresel finans krizinden bu yana istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair ciddi bir ger\u00e7ekle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Bu nedenle, verimlili\u011fi art\u0131racak kamu politikalar\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi olmadan ve yapay zeka gibi yeni geli\u015fen teknolojilerden yararlan\u0131lmadan, ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131n geri d\u00f6nmesi pek de olas\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor. IMF\u2019nin analizi, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ger\u00e7ek bir pazar rekabetine ve a\u00e7\u0131k bir k\u00fcresel ticarete, finansa kolay eri\u015fime ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 esnekli\u011fini art\u0131rmaya odaklanm\u0131\u015f politika eylemlerinin ancak k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi 2030\u2019a kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 1.2 puan art\u0131rabilece\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Yani, tekrar y\u00fczde 4-4.2 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme trendine d\u00f6nmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

YAPAY ZEKA\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Yapay zekan\u0131n halen i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verimlili\u011fini art\u0131rma potansiyeli belirsiz. Bununla birlikte, potansiyel olarak \u00f6nemli. IMF, yapay zekan\u0131n \u00fclkelerce ve sekt\u00f6rlerce benimsenmesine ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc \u00fczerindeki etkisine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak muhtemelen k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye 0.8 puanl\u0131k bir katk\u0131 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. IMF\u2019nin 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k ileriye y\u00f6nelik tahminlerine g\u00f6re, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2029\u2019a kadar, y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fcn biraz \u00fczerinde kalsa da ivme kaybedecek. IMF\u2019ye g\u00f6re bu durum k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ya\u015fam standartlar\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fmeyi tersine \u00e7evirme tehdidi olu\u015fturuyor. Zengin ve daha fakir \u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndaki yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme dengesizli\u011fi, iki \u00fclke grubu aras\u0131ndaki k\u00fcresel gelir yak\u0131nsamas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha da s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Yetmezmi\u015f gibi kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme senaryosu, y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131yla birle\u015ferek, k\u00fcresel borcun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fini de riske atabilir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

YA\u015eLANAN N\u00dcFUS<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye gibi kamu borcu ve b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan disiplini ka\u00e7\u0131rmamay\u0131 ba\u015farm\u0131\u015f birka\u00e7 \u00fclke d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, kamu bor\u00e7 stoku ve b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 zorlayan ekonomilerde, h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin ekonomik yava\u015flamaya kar\u015f\u0131 koyma, sosyal refah veya \u00e7evresel giri\u015fimlere yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma kapasitesi daha da k\u0131s\u0131tlanabilir. Dahas\u0131, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi sermaye mallar\u0131 (makina, te\u00e7hizat, fabrika) ve teknolojilere yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 cayd\u0131rabilir ve ne yaz\u0131k ki yava\u015flamay\u0131 da derinle\u015ftirebilir. K\u00fcresel i\u015fsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131ndan kaynaklanan huzursuzluk bir yana, \u00fcst\u00fcne binen \u2018jeoekonomik par\u00e7alanma\u2019dan kaynaklanan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc r\u00fczgarlar, zararl\u0131 tek tarafl\u0131 ticaret ve sanayi politikalar\u0131yla birlikte k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi zaten k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftiriyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu nedenle, \u015firketler ve firmalar aras\u0131nda i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ve sermaye mal\u0131 tahsisinin iyile\u015ftirilmesini, b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerdeki ya\u015flanan n\u00fcfustan kaynaklanan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n giderilmesini, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin temel itici g\u00fc\u00e7leri olan emek, sermaye mallar\u0131n\u0131n verimlili\u011fini, toplam fakt\u00f6r verimlili\u011fini art\u0131racak politikalara odaklanmak \u00f6ncelikli. IMF, ya\u015flanan n\u00fcfuslar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6\u00e7menleri i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kazand\u0131rarak \u00e7\u00f6zmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomiler i\u00e7in bunun kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Uluslararas\u0131 ekonomik te\u015fkilatlar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00fcndemi bu olacak.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"imf-verimlilik-odakli-reformlar-hizlandirilmali","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1714942800rF6mIK5xg0d4piw.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1714942800rF6mIK5xg0d4piw.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":4891,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}