{"status":true,"post":{"id":66531,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":0,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2025-05-02 09:18:00","created_at":"2025-05-02T06:18:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2025-05-02T06:18:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2025-05-02 09:18:00","source_id":null,"post_id":66531,"is_featured":0,"title":"IMF: \u2018Eski k\u00fcresel sistem s\u0131f\u0131rland\u0131\u2019","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":"IMF: \u2018Eski k\u00fcresel sistem s\u0131f\u0131rland\u0131\u2019","sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"

Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu\u2019nun (IMF), Nisan 2025 tarihli D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm (WEO) raporunda uzunca bir s\u00fcredir k\u00f6\u015femizde vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir tespitin ilk kez bir uluslararas\u0131 \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131 ekonomik te\u015fkilat taraf\u0131ndan dile getirildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: \u201cSon 80 y\u0131ld\u0131r i\u015fleyen k\u00fcresel ekonomik sistem s\u0131f\u0131rlan\u0131yor.\u201d\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

Bu c\u00fcmlenin, 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan sonra ABD\u2019nin kendi liderli\u011finde kurdu\u011fu uluslararas\u0131 ekonomik sistemin \u00f6nemli sacayaklar\u0131ndan biri olan IMF taraf\u0131ndan bu kadar sarih bir \u015fekilde ifade edilmesi \u00f6nemli. IMF ayr\u0131ca, k\u00fcresel ekonomik sistemin son 80 y\u0131ld\u0131r i\u015fleyen yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir de\u011fi\u015fim s\u00fcrecine girdi\u011fini de belirtiyor. IMF raporunda k\u00fcresel ekonomik sistemdeki \u2018s\u0131f\u0131rlama\u2019, yeni bir d\u00f6neme girilmesi \u00fc\u00e7 temel nedenle vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>


<\/p>

3 TEMEL NEDEN<\/strong><\/p>

\u0130lki, y\u00fcksek tarifeler ve ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131. Trump y\u00f6netiminin gerek ilk ba\u015fkanl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde ama esas \u015fu anki ikinci ba\u015fkanl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde hayli geni\u015f bir \u00fclkeler grubuna kar\u015f\u0131 uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi tarife oranlar\u0131 ve do\u011fal olarak, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemler, k\u00fcresel ticaretin yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor ve belirsizlikleri art\u0131r\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en uzak co\u011frafyalar\u0131na kadar her \u00fclkenin bir ba\u015fka \u00fclkeyle \u00e7ekinmeksizin serbest\u00e7e ticaret yapmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neren, hatta \u0131srar eden, ticari ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131ktan \u00e7ekinilmemesi gerekti\u011fini savunan \u2018k\u00fcreselle\u015fme 2.0\u2019 modeli \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc. Bu nedenle k\u00fcresel ticarette, dost ve m\u00fcttefik oldu\u011funa kesin kanaat getirilen \u00fclkelerle (freindshoring), uluslararas\u0131 ticarette b\u00f6lgeselle\u015fme ve yerelle\u015fmenin (nearshoring) a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazanaca\u011f\u0131 yeni bir d\u00f6neme giriyoruz.<\/p>


<\/p>

\u0130kincisi, neoliberal ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n terkedildi\u011fi, \u00fclkelerin daha tutucu, daha korumac\u0131 ekonomi politikalar\u0131na y\u00f6neldi\u011fi, bununla birlikte politika belirsizli\u011finin de artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme girmi\u015f olmam\u0131z. Bunun do\u011fal sonucu olarak, bir d\u00f6nem \u00f6ncesinde aralar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ticaret ba\u011flar\u0131 olan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda (ABD ile \u00c7in, Meksika, AB ve Kanada aras\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi) ekonomik ve siyasi gerilimler, jeopolitik ve jeoekonomik belirsizlikler, k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkiliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

IMF\u2019nin son ve yeni yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir raporda, OECD\u2019nin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi\u011fi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc neden ise k\u00fcresel bor\u00e7 girdab\u0131n\u0131n geldi\u011fi seviye. Geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerden ba\u015flayarak, \u00f6nde gelen geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerde de kamu bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n adeta katlanarak y\u00fckselmesi, hem geli\u015fmi\u015f hem de geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde ekonomik k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

\u0130\u015eB\u0130RL\u0130\u011e\u0130 VE YAPISAL REFORMLAR<\/strong><\/p>

\u00c7ok \u015f\u00fck\u00fcr ki, T\u00fcrkiye, Rusya, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 say\u0131da \u00f6nde gelen y\u00fckselen ekonomi bu k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. IMF raporunda, bunca belirsizlik ve gerginli\u011fin ortas\u0131nda, 2025 i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 2.8'e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f durumda. Ayr\u0131ca, s\u00f6z konusu ticaret gerilimleri ve artan jeopolitik belirsizliklerin k\u00fcresel ticaret b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini 2025'te y\u00fczde 1.7'ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

Oysa, 2024'teki y\u00fczde 3.8'lik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden cesaret alarak, pek \u00e7ok uluslararas\u0131 kurum ve ekonomist k\u00fcresel ticaret b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3 ile 3.3 aras\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini payla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Y\u00fczde 4 bile diyen vard\u0131. Malum, D\u00fcnya Ticaret Te\u015fkilat\u0131 ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftalarda yeni tahminini y\u00fczde 0.2 gerileme olarak a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f; ticaret gerilimi daha da sertle\u015firse, y\u00fczde 0.6 ile 1.5 aras\u0131 gerileme beklentisine dahi i\u015faret etmi\u015fti.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

IMF, \u00fclkelerin bu belirsizlik ve gerginlik d\u00f6nemini daha fazla i\u015fbirli\u011fi, yap\u0131sal reformlara a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verme ve bor\u00e7 seviyelerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye \u00f6zen g\u00f6stermeleri olarak \u00f6neriyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2025 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisinin yukar\u0131 do\u011fru revize oldu\u011funu da hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m.<\/p>


<\/p>","slug":"imf-eski-kuresel-sistem-sifirlandi","tags":null,"meta_title":"IMF: \u2018Eski k\u00fcresel sistem s\u0131f\u0131rland\u0131\u2019","meta_description":"Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu\u2019nun (IMF), Nisan 2025 tarihli D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm (WEO) raporunda uzunca bir s\u00fcredir k\u00f6\u015femizde vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir tespitin ilk kez bir uluslararas\u0131 \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131 ekonomik te\u015fkilat taraf\u0131ndan dile getirildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: \u201cSon 80 y\u0131ld\u0131r i\u015fleyen k\u00fcresel ekonomik sistem s\u0131f\u0131rlan\u0131yor.\u201d","meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1746133200j6JUcQmsw66T9xG.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":0,"cropped_1200x675":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/1200x675\/imf-eski-kuresel-sistem-sifirlandi_1200x675_LvnodY40o3.webp","user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":66664,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":66531,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"IMF: \u2018Eski k\u00fcresel sistem s\u0131f\u0131rland\u0131\u2019","home_title":"IMF: \u2018Eski k\u00fcresel sistem s\u0131f\u0131rland\u0131\u2019","sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"

Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu\u2019nun (IMF), Nisan 2025 tarihli D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm (WEO) raporunda uzunca bir s\u00fcredir k\u00f6\u015femizde vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir tespitin ilk kez bir uluslararas\u0131 \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131 ekonomik te\u015fkilat taraf\u0131ndan dile getirildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: \u201cSon 80 y\u0131ld\u0131r i\u015fleyen k\u00fcresel ekonomik sistem s\u0131f\u0131rlan\u0131yor.\u201d\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

Bu c\u00fcmlenin, 2. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan sonra ABD\u2019nin kendi liderli\u011finde kurdu\u011fu uluslararas\u0131 ekonomik sistemin \u00f6nemli sacayaklar\u0131ndan biri olan IMF taraf\u0131ndan bu kadar sarih bir \u015fekilde ifade edilmesi \u00f6nemli. IMF ayr\u0131ca, k\u00fcresel ekonomik sistemin son 80 y\u0131ld\u0131r i\u015fleyen yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir de\u011fi\u015fim s\u00fcrecine girdi\u011fini de belirtiyor. IMF raporunda k\u00fcresel ekonomik sistemdeki \u2018s\u0131f\u0131rlama\u2019, yeni bir d\u00f6neme girilmesi \u00fc\u00e7 temel nedenle vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>


<\/p>

3 TEMEL NEDEN<\/strong><\/p>

\u0130lki, y\u00fcksek tarifeler ve ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131. Trump y\u00f6netiminin gerek ilk ba\u015fkanl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde ama esas \u015fu anki ikinci ba\u015fkanl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde hayli geni\u015f bir \u00fclkeler grubuna kar\u015f\u0131 uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi tarife oranlar\u0131 ve do\u011fal olarak, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemler, k\u00fcresel ticaretin yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor ve belirsizlikleri art\u0131r\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en uzak co\u011frafyalar\u0131na kadar her \u00fclkenin bir ba\u015fka \u00fclkeyle \u00e7ekinmeksizin serbest\u00e7e ticaret yapmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neren, hatta \u0131srar eden, ticari ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131ktan \u00e7ekinilmemesi gerekti\u011fini savunan \u2018k\u00fcreselle\u015fme 2.0\u2019 modeli \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc. Bu nedenle k\u00fcresel ticarette, dost ve m\u00fcttefik oldu\u011funa kesin kanaat getirilen \u00fclkelerle (freindshoring), uluslararas\u0131 ticarette b\u00f6lgeselle\u015fme ve yerelle\u015fmenin (nearshoring) a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kazanaca\u011f\u0131 yeni bir d\u00f6neme giriyoruz.<\/p>


<\/p>

\u0130kincisi, neoliberal ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n terkedildi\u011fi, \u00fclkelerin daha tutucu, daha korumac\u0131 ekonomi politikalar\u0131na y\u00f6neldi\u011fi, bununla birlikte politika belirsizli\u011finin de artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme girmi\u015f olmam\u0131z. Bunun do\u011fal sonucu olarak, bir d\u00f6nem \u00f6ncesinde aralar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ticaret ba\u011flar\u0131 olan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda (ABD ile \u00c7in, Meksika, AB ve Kanada aras\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi) ekonomik ve siyasi gerilimler, jeopolitik ve jeoekonomik belirsizlikler, k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkiliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

IMF\u2019nin son ve yeni yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir raporda, OECD\u2019nin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi\u011fi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc neden ise k\u00fcresel bor\u00e7 girdab\u0131n\u0131n geldi\u011fi seviye. Geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerden ba\u015flayarak, \u00f6nde gelen geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerde de kamu bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n adeta katlanarak y\u00fckselmesi, hem geli\u015fmi\u015f hem de geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde ekonomik k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

\u0130\u015eB\u0130RL\u0130\u011e\u0130 VE YAPISAL REFORMLAR<\/strong><\/p>

\u00c7ok \u015f\u00fck\u00fcr ki, T\u00fcrkiye, Rusya, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 say\u0131da \u00f6nde gelen y\u00fckselen ekonomi bu k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. IMF raporunda, bunca belirsizlik ve gerginli\u011fin ortas\u0131nda, 2025 i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 2.8'e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f durumda. Ayr\u0131ca, s\u00f6z konusu ticaret gerilimleri ve artan jeopolitik belirsizliklerin k\u00fcresel ticaret b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini 2025'te y\u00fczde 1.7'ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

Oysa, 2024'teki y\u00fczde 3.8'lik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden cesaret alarak, pek \u00e7ok uluslararas\u0131 kurum ve ekonomist k\u00fcresel ticaret b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3 ile 3.3 aras\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini payla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Y\u00fczde 4 bile diyen vard\u0131. Malum, D\u00fcnya Ticaret Te\u015fkilat\u0131 ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftalarda yeni tahminini y\u00fczde 0.2 gerileme olarak a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f; ticaret gerilimi daha da sertle\u015firse, y\u00fczde 0.6 ile 1.5 aras\u0131 gerileme beklentisine dahi i\u015faret etmi\u015fti.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

IMF, \u00fclkelerin bu belirsizlik ve gerginlik d\u00f6nemini daha fazla i\u015fbirli\u011fi, yap\u0131sal reformlara a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verme ve bor\u00e7 seviyelerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye \u00f6zen g\u00f6stermeleri olarak \u00f6neriyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2025 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisinin yukar\u0131 do\u011fru revize oldu\u011funu da hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m.<\/p>


<\/p>","slug":"imf-eski-kuresel-sistem-sifirlandi","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1746133200j6JUcQmsw66T9xG.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1746133200j6JUcQmsw66T9xG.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/638x552\/imf-eski-kuresel-sistem-sifirlandi_638x552_3VA1kvciey.webp","cropped_310x208":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/310x208\/imf-eski-kuresel-sistem-sifirlandi_310x208_4dGc4HSQdT.webp","cropped_416x247":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/416x247\/imf-eski-kuresel-sistem-sifirlandi_416x247_NSx2SB7ktF.webp","cropped_197x247":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/197x247\/imf-eski-kuresel-sistem-sifirlandi_197x247_ecL0GShvnj.webp","cropped_416x600":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/416x600\/imf-eski-kuresel-sistem-sifirlandi_416x600_mC60tu1lxX.webp","cropped_1200x675":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/1200x675\/imf-eski-kuresel-sistem-sifirlandi_1200x675_LvnodY40o3.webp","tags":null,"meta_title":"IMF: \u2018Eski k\u00fcresel sistem s\u0131f\u0131rland\u0131\u2019","meta_description":"Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu\u2019nun (IMF), Nisan 2025 tarihli D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm (WEO) raporunda uzunca bir s\u00fcredir k\u00f6\u015femizde vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir tespitin ilk kez bir uluslararas\u0131 \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131 ekonomik te\u015fkilat taraf\u0131ndan dile getirildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: \u201cSon 80 y\u0131ld\u0131r i\u015fleyen k\u00fcresel ekonomik sistem s\u0131f\u0131rlan\u0131yor.\u201d","meta_keywords":null,"view_count":0,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}