{"status":true,"post":{"id":66538,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":0,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2025-05-02 09:53:00","created_at":"2025-05-02T06:53:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2025-05-02T06:53:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2025-05-02 09:53:00","source_id":null,"post_id":66538,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u0130lave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc zorlayacak","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":"\u0130lave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc zorlayacak","sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"

Mart ay\u0131ndaki finansal dalgalanmalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) para politikas\u0131ndaki ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc zorlayacak.<\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

Mart ay\u0131ndaki finansal dalgalanmalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) para politikas\u0131ndaki ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc zorlayacak. TCMB, finansal \u015foklar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019ndaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 durdurmaya \u00f6ncelik verdi. Enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi hedefi korunmakla birlikte dezenflasyon program\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli hedef, TL\u2019nin de\u011ferinin korunmas\u0131 haline geldi. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede TCMB, iki a\u015famada parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmalar\u0131n reel sekt\u00f6r \u00fczerindeki olas\u0131 etkilerini de\u011ferlendirelim.<\/p>


<\/p>

1. PROGRAM TL\u2019YE G\u00dcVEN KAZANDIRMI\u015eTI<\/strong><\/p>

TCMB, 2023 haziran ay\u0131ndan itibaren uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 politikalarla TL\u2019ye yeniden g\u00fcven sa\u011flad\u0131 ve TL varl\u0131klara yurt i\u00e7i ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan talep artt\u0131. TL bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te reel olarak de\u011ferlendi. Dezenflasyon program\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in TL\u2019de de\u011ferlenme olumlu iken, reel sekt\u00f6r TL\u2019nin de\u011ferlenmesiyle i\u00e7eride ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131da rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc kaybetti\u011fi i\u00e7in \u015fikayetlerini art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen reel sekt\u00f6r, enflasyon ve faizlerde kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve i\u015flerin 2025 ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda toparlanmaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle program\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde destekledi. TCMB de TL\u2019de sa\u011flanan g\u00fcven ve talebi arkas\u0131na alarak kademeli bir faiz indirim s\u00fcrecine girmi\u015fti.<\/p>


<\/p>

2. TL\u2019DE DE\u011eER KAYBI<\/strong><\/p>

Mart ay\u0131nda yurt i\u00e7inde ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan finansal \u015foklar, TL\u2019de ciddi bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Enflasyonist beklentiler y\u00fckseldi ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin risk primi 375 puana kadar y\u00fckseldi. Nisan ay\u0131 ortas\u0131na kadar d\u00f6vize talep devam etti. Bu geli\u015fmeler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda TCMB iki a\u015famal\u0131 olarak para politikas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. En son olarak politika faizi y\u00fczde 46\u2019ya, gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faiz oran\u0131 da y\u00fczde 49\u2019a y\u00fckseltildi. TCMB, TL\u2019nin de\u011ferini korumak i\u00e7in 45 milyar dolara yak\u0131n d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Br\u00fct ve net d\u00f6viz rezervleri azald\u0131. TCMB, di\u011fer yandan T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 likiditesini de neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131rlad\u0131 ve hatta piyasadan alacakl\u0131 duruma geldi.<\/p>


<\/p>

3. DEZENFLASYON PROGRAMININ HEDEFLER\u0130 \u00d6TELEND\u0130<\/strong><\/p>

TCMB, uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 dezenflasyon program\u0131nda 2025 sonu i\u00e7in en son \u015fubat ay\u0131ndaki g\u00fcncellemesi ile y\u00fczde 24 y\u0131lsonu T\u00dcFE hedefini a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. T\u00dcFE, mart ay\u0131 sonunda y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 38.1 oldu. Ancak nisan ve may\u0131s aylar\u0131nda enflasyon muhtemelen \u00f6nceki beklentilerin \u00fczerinde olacak. Haziran ay\u0131 sonunda y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 40 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilecek. Finansal \u015foklar\u0131n etkisiyle enflasyon beklentileri y\u00fckseldi. Bu geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u0131lsonu T\u00dcFE beklentisi de artt\u0131. TCMB piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 anketinde y\u0131lsonu T\u00dcFE beklentisi ortalama y\u00fczde 29.98 oldu. TCMB politika faizi 2025 sonu beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 32.5\u2019tir. Enflasyon ve faiz beklentilerinin y\u00fckselmesi, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fini zorla\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131r.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

4. YAZ AYLARINDA NORMALLE\u015eME\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Dezenflasyon program\u0131 hedeflerinin \u00f6telenmesi ve parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n uzamas\u0131 reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc zorlayacakt\u0131r. Reel sekt\u00f6r, finansal \u015foklar \u00f6ncesinde enflasyon ve faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki gerilemeyle y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda toparlanma ve finansal ko\u015fullarda gev\u015feme bekliyordu. Ancak ko\u015fullar de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f olup reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn i\u015flerde toparlanma ve gev\u015feme beklentileri de \u00f6telendi. \u0130lave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmalar, TL\u2019ye g\u00fcvenin yeniden sa\u011flanmas\u0131yla normalle\u015fmeye ba\u015flayacak. Bu da yaz aylar\u0131n\u0131 bulacakt\u0131r. TCMB faizleri ile piyasa faizleri yaz aylar\u0131nda da y\u00fcksek kalmaya ve i\u015fleri cayd\u0131rmaya devam edecek. \u0130\u015flerde toparlanma \u00fcmidi, y\u0131l\u0131n son aylar\u0131na \u00f6telenmi\u015f gibi duruyor.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

\u0130\u00e7eride i\u015flerde toparlaman\u0131n \u00f6telenmesi yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 kaosuyla birle\u015fince reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn sat\u0131\u015flarda ve nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda daha da zorlanaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Di\u011fer yandan, artan kredi faiz oranlar\u0131 reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn finansman maliyetlerini art\u0131r\u0131rken, k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 daha da azaltacak. Faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra TL likiditesinin kaybolmas\u0131 da kredi faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 ve vade fark\u0131 oranlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fckseltecek. Reel sekt\u00f6r, finansal a\u00e7\u0131dan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 iki \u00e7eyrek ya\u015fayacak.<\/p>


<\/p>


<\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/em><\/strong> \u0130lave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ko\u015fullar\u0131 alt\u0131nda reel sekt\u00f6rde ana \u00f6ncelik \u015firketleri finansal olarak ya\u015fatabilmek haline geldi. Di\u011fer hedefler ikincil kalacakt\u0131r.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>


<\/p>


<\/p>","slug":"ilave-sikilasma-reel-sektoru-zorlayacak","tags":null,"meta_title":"\u0130lave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc zorlayacak","meta_description":"Mart ay\u0131ndaki finansal dalgalanmalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) para politikas\u0131ndaki ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc zorlayacak.","meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1746133200gGqTrsRl9hX5mI7.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":0,"cropped_1200x675":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/1200x675\/ilave-sikilasma-reel-sektoru-zorlayacak_1200x675_7lo3RX296T.webp","user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":66671,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":66538,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u0130lave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc zorlayacak","home_title":"\u0130lave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc zorlayacak","sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"

Mart ay\u0131ndaki finansal dalgalanmalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) para politikas\u0131ndaki ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc zorlayacak.<\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

Mart ay\u0131ndaki finansal dalgalanmalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) para politikas\u0131ndaki ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc zorlayacak. TCMB, finansal \u015foklar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019ndaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 durdurmaya \u00f6ncelik verdi. Enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi hedefi korunmakla birlikte dezenflasyon program\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli hedef, TL\u2019nin de\u011ferinin korunmas\u0131 haline geldi. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede TCMB, iki a\u015famada parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmalar\u0131n reel sekt\u00f6r \u00fczerindeki olas\u0131 etkilerini de\u011ferlendirelim.<\/p>


<\/p>

1. PROGRAM TL\u2019YE G\u00dcVEN KAZANDIRMI\u015eTI<\/strong><\/p>

TCMB, 2023 haziran ay\u0131ndan itibaren uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 politikalarla TL\u2019ye yeniden g\u00fcven sa\u011flad\u0131 ve TL varl\u0131klara yurt i\u00e7i ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan talep artt\u0131. TL bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te reel olarak de\u011ferlendi. Dezenflasyon program\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in TL\u2019de de\u011ferlenme olumlu iken, reel sekt\u00f6r TL\u2019nin de\u011ferlenmesiyle i\u00e7eride ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131da rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc kaybetti\u011fi i\u00e7in \u015fikayetlerini art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen reel sekt\u00f6r, enflasyon ve faizlerde kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve i\u015flerin 2025 ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda toparlanmaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle program\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde destekledi. TCMB de TL\u2019de sa\u011flanan g\u00fcven ve talebi arkas\u0131na alarak kademeli bir faiz indirim s\u00fcrecine girmi\u015fti.<\/p>


<\/p>

2. TL\u2019DE DE\u011eER KAYBI<\/strong><\/p>

Mart ay\u0131nda yurt i\u00e7inde ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan finansal \u015foklar, TL\u2019de ciddi bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Enflasyonist beklentiler y\u00fckseldi ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin risk primi 375 puana kadar y\u00fckseldi. Nisan ay\u0131 ortas\u0131na kadar d\u00f6vize talep devam etti. Bu geli\u015fmeler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda TCMB iki a\u015famal\u0131 olarak para politikas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. En son olarak politika faizi y\u00fczde 46\u2019ya, gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faiz oran\u0131 da y\u00fczde 49\u2019a y\u00fckseltildi. TCMB, TL\u2019nin de\u011ferini korumak i\u00e7in 45 milyar dolara yak\u0131n d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Br\u00fct ve net d\u00f6viz rezervleri azald\u0131. TCMB, di\u011fer yandan T\u00fcrk liras\u0131 likiditesini de neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131rlad\u0131 ve hatta piyasadan alacakl\u0131 duruma geldi.<\/p>


<\/p>

3. DEZENFLASYON PROGRAMININ HEDEFLER\u0130 \u00d6TELEND\u0130<\/strong><\/p>

TCMB, uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 dezenflasyon program\u0131nda 2025 sonu i\u00e7in en son \u015fubat ay\u0131ndaki g\u00fcncellemesi ile y\u00fczde 24 y\u0131lsonu T\u00dcFE hedefini a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. T\u00dcFE, mart ay\u0131 sonunda y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 38.1 oldu. Ancak nisan ve may\u0131s aylar\u0131nda enflasyon muhtemelen \u00f6nceki beklentilerin \u00fczerinde olacak. Haziran ay\u0131 sonunda y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 40 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilecek. Finansal \u015foklar\u0131n etkisiyle enflasyon beklentileri y\u00fckseldi. Bu geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u0131lsonu T\u00dcFE beklentisi de artt\u0131. TCMB piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 anketinde y\u0131lsonu T\u00dcFE beklentisi ortalama y\u00fczde 29.98 oldu. TCMB politika faizi 2025 sonu beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 32.5\u2019tir. Enflasyon ve faiz beklentilerinin y\u00fckselmesi, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fini zorla\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131r.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

4. YAZ AYLARINDA NORMALLE\u015eME\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Dezenflasyon program\u0131 hedeflerinin \u00f6telenmesi ve parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n uzamas\u0131 reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc zorlayacakt\u0131r. Reel sekt\u00f6r, finansal \u015foklar \u00f6ncesinde enflasyon ve faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki gerilemeyle y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda toparlanma ve finansal ko\u015fullarda gev\u015feme bekliyordu. Ancak ko\u015fullar de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f olup reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn i\u015flerde toparlanma ve gev\u015feme beklentileri de \u00f6telendi. \u0130lave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmalar, TL\u2019ye g\u00fcvenin yeniden sa\u011flanmas\u0131yla normalle\u015fmeye ba\u015flayacak. Bu da yaz aylar\u0131n\u0131 bulacakt\u0131r. TCMB faizleri ile piyasa faizleri yaz aylar\u0131nda da y\u00fcksek kalmaya ve i\u015fleri cayd\u0131rmaya devam edecek. \u0130\u015flerde toparlanma \u00fcmidi, y\u0131l\u0131n son aylar\u0131na \u00f6telenmi\u015f gibi duruyor.\u00a0<\/p>


<\/p>

\u0130\u00e7eride i\u015flerde toparlaman\u0131n \u00f6telenmesi yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 kaosuyla birle\u015fince reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn sat\u0131\u015flarda ve nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda daha da zorlanaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Di\u011fer yandan, artan kredi faiz oranlar\u0131 reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn finansman maliyetlerini art\u0131r\u0131rken, k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 daha da azaltacak. Faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra TL likiditesinin kaybolmas\u0131 da kredi faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 ve vade fark\u0131 oranlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fckseltecek. Reel sekt\u00f6r, finansal a\u00e7\u0131dan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 iki \u00e7eyrek ya\u015fayacak.<\/p>


<\/p>


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Son S\u00f6z:<\/em><\/strong> \u0130lave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ko\u015fullar\u0131 alt\u0131nda reel sekt\u00f6rde ana \u00f6ncelik \u015firketleri finansal olarak ya\u015fatabilmek haline geldi. Di\u011fer hedefler ikincil kalacakt\u0131r.\u00a0<\/p>


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