{"status":true,"post":{"id":19410,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:36:05","created_at":"2018-11-18T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:36:05.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":19410,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u0130ktisat zor zanaat","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

TCMB\u2019nin beklenti anketine her ay 70 civar\u0131nda reel sekt\u00f6r ve finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde g\u00f6rev yapan iktisat\u00e7\u0131 ile \u00f6\u011fretim \u00fcyesi, gazeteci ve di\u011fer profesyonel iktisat\u00e7\u0131lardan olu\u015fan bir grup cevap veriyor. \u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n hi\u00e7 ho\u015funa gitmeyen, en \u00e7ok zorland\u0131klar\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131k, dolar kuru tahmini. \u00d6yle ki, may\u0131s ay\u0131 beklenti anketinde 70 iktisat\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n nisan ay\u0131 sonu i\u00e7in dolar kuru beklentisinin ortalamas\u0131 4.41 TL, y\u0131l sonu ise 4.43 TL. Y\u0131l sonu dolar kuru haziran anketinde 4.58 TL\u2019ye, temmuzda 4.83 TL\u2019ye, a\u011fustosta 5.98 TL\u2019ye, eyl\u00fcl anketinde ise 6.59 TL\u2019ye y\u00fckseliyor. Ekim anketinde bu defa y\u0131l sonu dolar kuru tahmini 5.99 TL\u2019ye, kas\u0131m beklenti anketinde ise 5.64 TL\u2019ye geriliyor.<\/span><\/p>

ULUSLARARASI F\u0130NANS KURUMLARI \u00c7UVALLADI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Sorunun \u00f6z\u00fc \u015fu; T\u00fcrkiye ile ABD aras\u0131nda pek \u00e7ok konuda ya\u015fanan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131, ABD\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a \u2018ekonomik sava\u015f\u2019 ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ilan etmesi, dolar-TL kurunu belirli bir seviyeye t\u0131rmand\u0131rd\u0131; ard\u0131ndan ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tedbirler ve ekim ay\u0131n\u0131n ortas\u0131ndan itibaren normalizasyon s\u00fcrecine giren T\u00fcrkiye-ABD ili\u015fkileriyle 5.4 TL\u2019nin dahi alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. 2015, 2016 ve 2017 sonbahar\u0131nda, takip eden y\u0131l\u0131n euro-dolar paritesi tahminlerinde t\u00fcm uluslararas\u0131 finans kurumlar\u0131 \u00e7uvallad\u0131 ve m\u00fc\u015fterilerini delirtti. Paritenin 1.04 dolar, hatta 1 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fine dair t\u00fcm analizler yanl\u0131\u015f \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bug\u00fcn, \u00fclkelerin para birimlerinin birbirlerine olan de\u011ferleri t\u00fcm\u00fcyle k\u00fcresel ekonomi-politik gerginlik ve geli\u015fmelere a\u00e7\u0131k. Bu nedenle, iki ayda dolar kuru tahmini 1 TL\u2019ye yak\u0131n oynuyor ise iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 da zor durumda b\u0131rakmamak gerekir.<\/span><\/p>

KUR TAHM\u0130N\u0130N\u0130 BEKLENT\u0130 ANKET\u0130NDEN \u00c7IKARALIM<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2017 biterken, 2018 sonu i\u00e7in 70 iktisat\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n dolar-TL kur tahmini 4.08 ile 4.15 TL aras\u0131 gezinmi\u015f. <\/span>
2019 ba\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in ise \u20184.17 ile 4.20 aras\u0131 olabilir\u2019 demi\u015fler. \u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131lar i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnlerde isabetli tahminde bulunmak zor. R\u00fczgar\u0131n esti\u011fi y\u00f6ne g\u00f6re tahmin ve beklentiler \u015fekilleniyor. 2017 biterken, 2017 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi 5.5-5.7 iken, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 7.44 oldu. Kan\u0131mca, en az\u0131ndan \u2018kur\u2019 tahminini beklenti anketinden \u00e7\u0131karal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>

2019 G\u00dcNDEM\u0130 VE \u2018KARTLAR\u2019 MASADA<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdiden 2019\u2019un k\u00fcresel meseleler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7etin bir y\u0131l olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek zor de\u011fil. Bu ba\u015fl\u0131klardan birini k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Malum, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 tarihinin en uzun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck 500 bin varil azaltma karar\u0131 ile OPEC ve OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fclkeleri de \u00fcretimlerini k\u0131smaya davet etmesi sonras\u0131nda tamamlad\u0131. Uzmanlar, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretimi ve ihracat\u0131 k\u0131sma karar\u0131n\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde keskin bir etkisi olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ediyor. Bununla birlikte OPEC \u00fclkeleri \u00fcretim ve ihracatlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse, yeni bir k\u00fcresel kap\u0131\u015fma konusu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kacak gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. <\/span><\/p>

\u0130ngiltere\u2019de Brexit konusu Ba\u015fbakan May\u2019i istifan\u0131n e\u015fi\u011fine getirmi\u015f durumda. May, AB lehine \u00f6d\u00fcn verildi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen Brexit anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 parlamentodan ge\u00e7iremeyecek. Anla\u015fman\u0131n \u0130ngiltere\u2019ye t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya ile kendi ticari anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 yapabilme, reg\u00fclasyonlar ve yasama \u00fczerindeki kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden kazanabilme imkan\u0131 tan\u0131mas\u0131 isteniyor. Bunun anlam\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019le uzun soluklu yeni bir ili\u015fki seti olu\u015fturmak istenmesi.<\/span><\/p>

NATO Genel Sekreteri Stoltenberg ise Macron\u2019un Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n kendi savunma kabiliyetini geli\u015ftirme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 memnuniyetle kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak bunun transatlantik ili\u015fkileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecek \u015fekilde yap\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda NATO\u2019yu da kuvvetlendirece\u011fini ifade etmi\u015f. Yani, ABD ile gerginli\u011fe sebep olmadan. Stoltenberg, \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin birlikten ayr\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan NATO\u2019nun savunmas\u0131n\u0131n ve Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011finin ter\u00f6rle m\u00fccadele konusunda kilit \u00f6neme sahip olan T\u00fcrkiye ile ancak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fini vurgulam\u0131\u015f. T\u00fcrkiye olarak, ekonomide \u2018dengeleme-disiplin\u2019 d\u00f6nemini iyi y\u00f6netirsek, masada \u2018kartlar\u2019 lehimize a\u00e7\u0131lacak gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"iktisat-zor-zanaat","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u0130ktisat zor zanaat","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":110,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":19509,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":19410,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u0130ktisat zor zanaat","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

TCMB\u2019nin beklenti anketine her ay 70 civar\u0131nda reel sekt\u00f6r ve finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde g\u00f6rev yapan iktisat\u00e7\u0131 ile \u00f6\u011fretim \u00fcyesi, gazeteci ve di\u011fer profesyonel iktisat\u00e7\u0131lardan olu\u015fan bir grup cevap veriyor. \u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n hi\u00e7 ho\u015funa gitmeyen, en \u00e7ok zorland\u0131klar\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131k, dolar kuru tahmini. \u00d6yle ki, may\u0131s ay\u0131 beklenti anketinde 70 iktisat\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n nisan ay\u0131 sonu i\u00e7in dolar kuru beklentisinin ortalamas\u0131 4.41 TL, y\u0131l sonu ise 4.43 TL. Y\u0131l sonu dolar kuru haziran anketinde 4.58 TL\u2019ye, temmuzda 4.83 TL\u2019ye, a\u011fustosta 5.98 TL\u2019ye, eyl\u00fcl anketinde ise 6.59 TL\u2019ye y\u00fckseliyor. Ekim anketinde bu defa y\u0131l sonu dolar kuru tahmini 5.99 TL\u2019ye, kas\u0131m beklenti anketinde ise 5.64 TL\u2019ye geriliyor.<\/span><\/p>

ULUSLARARASI F\u0130NANS KURUMLARI \u00c7UVALLADI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Sorunun \u00f6z\u00fc \u015fu; T\u00fcrkiye ile ABD aras\u0131nda pek \u00e7ok konuda ya\u015fanan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131, ABD\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a \u2018ekonomik sava\u015f\u2019 ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ilan etmesi, dolar-TL kurunu belirli bir seviyeye t\u0131rmand\u0131rd\u0131; ard\u0131ndan ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tedbirler ve ekim ay\u0131n\u0131n ortas\u0131ndan itibaren normalizasyon s\u00fcrecine giren T\u00fcrkiye-ABD ili\u015fkileriyle 5.4 TL\u2019nin dahi alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. 2015, 2016 ve 2017 sonbahar\u0131nda, takip eden y\u0131l\u0131n euro-dolar paritesi tahminlerinde t\u00fcm uluslararas\u0131 finans kurumlar\u0131 \u00e7uvallad\u0131 ve m\u00fc\u015fterilerini delirtti. Paritenin 1.04 dolar, hatta 1 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fine dair t\u00fcm analizler yanl\u0131\u015f \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bug\u00fcn, \u00fclkelerin para birimlerinin birbirlerine olan de\u011ferleri t\u00fcm\u00fcyle k\u00fcresel ekonomi-politik gerginlik ve geli\u015fmelere a\u00e7\u0131k. Bu nedenle, iki ayda dolar kuru tahmini 1 TL\u2019ye yak\u0131n oynuyor ise iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 da zor durumda b\u0131rakmamak gerekir.<\/span><\/p>

KUR TAHM\u0130N\u0130N\u0130 BEKLENT\u0130 ANKET\u0130NDEN \u00c7IKARALIM<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2017 biterken, 2018 sonu i\u00e7in 70 iktisat\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n dolar-TL kur tahmini 4.08 ile 4.15 TL aras\u0131 gezinmi\u015f. <\/span>
2019 ba\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in ise \u20184.17 ile 4.20 aras\u0131 olabilir\u2019 demi\u015fler. \u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131lar i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnlerde isabetli tahminde bulunmak zor. R\u00fczgar\u0131n esti\u011fi y\u00f6ne g\u00f6re tahmin ve beklentiler \u015fekilleniyor. 2017 biterken, 2017 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi 5.5-5.7 iken, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme 7.44 oldu. Kan\u0131mca, en az\u0131ndan \u2018kur\u2019 tahminini beklenti anketinden \u00e7\u0131karal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>

2019 G\u00dcNDEM\u0130 VE \u2018KARTLAR\u2019 MASADA<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdiden 2019\u2019un k\u00fcresel meseleler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7etin bir y\u0131l olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek zor de\u011fil. Bu ba\u015fl\u0131klardan birini k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Malum, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 tarihinin en uzun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck 500 bin varil azaltma karar\u0131 ile OPEC ve OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fclkeleri de \u00fcretimlerini k\u0131smaya davet etmesi sonras\u0131nda tamamlad\u0131. Uzmanlar, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretimi ve ihracat\u0131 k\u0131sma karar\u0131n\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde keskin bir etkisi olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ediyor. Bununla birlikte OPEC \u00fclkeleri \u00fcretim ve ihracatlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse, yeni bir k\u00fcresel kap\u0131\u015fma konusu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kacak gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. <\/span><\/p>

\u0130ngiltere\u2019de Brexit konusu Ba\u015fbakan May\u2019i istifan\u0131n e\u015fi\u011fine getirmi\u015f durumda. May, AB lehine \u00f6d\u00fcn verildi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen Brexit anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 parlamentodan ge\u00e7iremeyecek. Anla\u015fman\u0131n \u0130ngiltere\u2019ye t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya ile kendi ticari anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 yapabilme, reg\u00fclasyonlar ve yasama \u00fczerindeki kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden kazanabilme imkan\u0131 tan\u0131mas\u0131 isteniyor. Bunun anlam\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019le uzun soluklu yeni bir ili\u015fki seti olu\u015fturmak istenmesi.<\/span><\/p>

NATO Genel Sekreteri Stoltenberg ise Macron\u2019un Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n kendi savunma kabiliyetini geli\u015ftirme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 memnuniyetle kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak bunun transatlantik ili\u015fkileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecek \u015fekilde yap\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda NATO\u2019yu da kuvvetlendirece\u011fini ifade etmi\u015f. Yani, ABD ile gerginli\u011fe sebep olmadan. Stoltenberg, \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin birlikten ayr\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan NATO\u2019nun savunmas\u0131n\u0131n ve Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011finin ter\u00f6rle m\u00fccadele konusunda kilit \u00f6neme sahip olan T\u00fcrkiye ile ancak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fini vurgulam\u0131\u015f. T\u00fcrkiye olarak, ekonomide \u2018dengeleme-disiplin\u2019 d\u00f6nemini iyi y\u00f6netirsek, masada \u2018kartlar\u2019 lehimize a\u00e7\u0131lacak gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"iktisat-zor-zanaat","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u0130ktisat zor zanaat","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":110,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}