{"status":true,"post":{"id":16053,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 10:03:41","created_at":"2017-03-05T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T07:03:41.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":16053,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u0130hracat iyi geldi, g\u00f6zler enflasyonda","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131lar Meclisi (T\u0130M) verilerine g\u00f6re, ihracat \u015fubatta ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 5.1 artarak 11 milyar 296 milyon dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. B\u00f6ylece ayl\u0131k ihracat, 2015\u2019den beri ilk kez d\u00f6rt ayd\u0131r arka arkaya, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re artt\u0131. \u0130hracat, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 2.6 art\u0131\u015fla 143 milyar 218 milyon dolar oldu. Otomotiv end\u00fcstrisi ise \u015fubatta 2 milyar 230 milyon 199 bin dolarla en fazla ihracat ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren sekt\u00f6r. Bunu 1 milyar 348 milyon 439 bin dolarla kimyevi maddeler ve mamulleri, 1 milyar 288 milyon 928 bin dolarla da haz\u0131r giyim ve konfeksiyon sekt\u00f6rleri takip etti. \u015eubat ay\u0131nda en fazla ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 82.3\u2019le zeytin ve zeytinya\u011f\u0131, y\u00fczde 64\u2019le de m\u00fccevher sekt\u00f6rlerinde kaydedildi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u015eubat ay\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin toplam ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 82.4\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren sanayi grubunda ise 2016\u2019n\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 6\u2019l\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla 9 milyar 312 milyon 922 bin dolarl\u0131k ihracat yap\u0131ld\u0131. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde toplam ihracat\u0131n y\u00fczde 14.8\u2019ini olu\u015fturan tar\u0131m grubunda y\u00fczde 2.4 azal\u0131\u015fla 1 milyar 673 milyon 310 bin dolarl\u0131k ihracat ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi. Toplam ihracattan y\u00fczde 2.7 pay alan madencilik grubunda ise y\u00fczde 26.9 art\u0131\u015fla 309 milyon 935 bin dolarl\u0131k ihracat yap\u0131ld\u0131. Miktar baz\u0131nda ihracat, \u015fubatta y\u00fczde 10.2 artarak 9.4 milyon ton oldu. S\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde en fazla ihracat yap\u0131lan 5 \u00fclke s\u0131ras\u0131yla Almanya, \u0130ngiltere, Irak, \u0130talya ve ABD oldu. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk iki ay\u0131nda y\u00fczdesel bazda en y\u00fcksek ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 139 ile Malta ve y\u00fczde 112 ile Singapur\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. En dikkat \u00e7ekici art\u0131\u015flar \u00c7in, \u0130srail ve ABD\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu \u00fclkelere ihracat, s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 67, 27.8 ve 26.5 art\u0131\u015f kaydetti. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">En fazla ihracat yap\u0131lan \u00fc\u00e7 il; 4 milyar 726 milyon 491 bin dolarla \u0130stanbul, 1 milyar 148 milyon 632 bin dolarla Bursa ve 1 milyar 42 milyon 286 bin dolarla Kocaeli <\/span><span class=\"large\">\u015feklinde s\u0131raland\u0131. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>\u015eUBAT AYI ENFLASYON BEKLENT\u0130S\u0130 <\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ekonomistlerin genel beklenti ortalamas\u0131, \u015fubat ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0.5 enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131. Bununla birlikte, y\u00fczde 0.1 art\u0131\u015f bekleyen ekonomist de var. Anadolu Ajans\u0131 Finans Portal\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Enflasyon Beklenti Anketi\u2019ne kat\u0131lan ekonomistler ise \u015fubat ay\u0131nda T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (T\u00dcFE) y\u00fczde 0.40 artaca\u011f\u0131 ortalama beklentisine i\u015faret ettiler. Ankete kat\u0131lan ekonomistlerin \u015fubat ay\u0131 i\u00e7in enflasyon beklentileri en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck y\u00fczde eksi 0.14 ve en y\u00fcksek y\u00fczde 0.69 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yer ald\u0131. Ekonomistlerin 2017 sonu enflasyon beklentisinin ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 8.76 oldu. Ankete kat\u0131lan ekonomistler aras\u0131nda y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisinin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck y\u00fczde 8 ve en y\u00fcksek y\u00fczde 9.60 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ekonomistlerin \u015fubat ay\u0131 enflasyon beklentilerinin ortalamas\u0131na (y\u00fczde 0.40) g\u00f6re, bir \u00f6nceki ay y\u00fczde 9.22 olan y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyonun, y\u00fczde 9.68\u2019e y\u00fckselece\u011fi hesaplan\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">1 Mart \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc, \u0130TO\u2019nun a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 veriye g\u00f6re ise \u0130stanbul\u2019da \u015fubat ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki aya k\u0131yasla perakende fiyatlar y\u00fczde 0.33, toptan fiyatlar y\u00fczde 0.20 artt\u0131. Perakende fiyatlar 2017 \u015fubat ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 8.52, toptan fiyatlar ise y\u00fczde 12.29 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. \u0130stanbul\u2019un \u015fubat ay\u0131 enflasyonu, t\u00fcm T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in ortalama y\u00fczde 0.4 enflasyon beklentisini teyit ediyor. Bununla birlikte ayl\u0131k enflasyonun y\u00fczde 0.1 ile 0.2 aras\u0131 gelmesi piyasalarca olumlu kar\u015f\u0131lanabilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>FED TANS\u0130YONU ARTIRDI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ekonominin bir di\u011fer kritik ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, yakla\u015f\u0131k iki hafta sonra sonu\u00e7lanacak olan, iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck Fed A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131. Daha bir hafta \u00f6nce, mart ay\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131da Fed yetkililerinin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik karar alma ihtimali y\u00fczde 35 iken, bu oran bu hafta bir anda y\u00fczde 60 ile 80 aras\u0131na s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Bununla birlikte dolar-TL kuru 3.56 TL seviyelerinden 3.65 TL seviyelerine y\u00fckselirken, euro-dolar paritesi de 1.0570 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Jan Hatzius\u2019un da aralar\u0131nda bulundu\u011fu Goldman Sachs ekonomistlerinin kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir m\u00fc\u015fteri bilgilendirme notunda, b\u00f6lgesel Fed Ba\u015fkanlar\u0131 Kaplan, Wlliams ve Dudley\u2019nin yorumlar\u0131n\u0131n, FOMC\u2019un mart toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gidilmesini ciddi bir \u015fekilde de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fine ili\u015fkin \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015faretler\u201d oldu\u011fu belirtilmi\u015f. Goldman ekonomistleri Fed\u2019in mart ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gidilmesi ihtimalini y\u00fczde 60 seviyesine y\u00fckseltmi\u015fler. Goldman, may\u0131s ay\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini y\u00fczde 10\u2019a ve haziran ay\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini de y\u00fczde 25\u2019e indirmi\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">TCMB\u2019nin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 proaktif tedbirler ve Trump y\u00f6netiminin g\u00f6reve ba\u015flamas\u0131 ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00f6lgesinde azalan gerginlik, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimalinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine ra\u011fmen dolar-TL kurunu 3.64-3.68 TL band\u0131nda tutuyor. T\u00fcrkiye ile ilgili verilerin olumlu \u00e7\u0131kmaya devam etmesi ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc beklentiye ra\u011fmen Fed\u2019in mart ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131 es ge\u00e7mesi halinde, dolar-TL kurunda tekrar bir yumu\u015fama g\u00f6zlenebilir.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"ihracat-iyi-geldi-gozler-enflasyonda","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u0130hracat iyi geldi, g\u00f6zler enflasyonda","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":105,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":16152,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":16053,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u0130hracat iyi geldi, g\u00f6zler enflasyonda","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye \u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131lar Meclisi (T\u0130M) verilerine g\u00f6re, ihracat \u015fubatta ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 5.1 artarak 11 milyar 296 milyon dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. B\u00f6ylece ayl\u0131k ihracat, 2015\u2019den beri ilk kez d\u00f6rt ayd\u0131r arka arkaya, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re artt\u0131. \u0130hracat, y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 2.6 art\u0131\u015fla 143 milyar 218 milyon dolar oldu. Otomotiv end\u00fcstrisi ise \u015fubatta 2 milyar 230 milyon 199 bin dolarla en fazla ihracat ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren sekt\u00f6r. Bunu 1 milyar 348 milyon 439 bin dolarla kimyevi maddeler ve mamulleri, 1 milyar 288 milyon 928 bin dolarla da haz\u0131r giyim ve konfeksiyon sekt\u00f6rleri takip etti. \u015eubat ay\u0131nda en fazla ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 82.3\u2019le zeytin ve zeytinya\u011f\u0131, y\u00fczde 64\u2019le de m\u00fccevher sekt\u00f6rlerinde kaydedildi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u015eubat ay\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin toplam ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 82.4\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren sanayi grubunda ise 2016\u2019n\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 6\u2019l\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla 9 milyar 312 milyon 922 bin dolarl\u0131k ihracat yap\u0131ld\u0131. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde toplam ihracat\u0131n y\u00fczde 14.8\u2019ini olu\u015fturan tar\u0131m grubunda y\u00fczde 2.4 azal\u0131\u015fla 1 milyar 673 milyon 310 bin dolarl\u0131k ihracat ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi. Toplam ihracattan y\u00fczde 2.7 pay alan madencilik grubunda ise y\u00fczde 26.9 art\u0131\u015fla 309 milyon 935 bin dolarl\u0131k ihracat yap\u0131ld\u0131. Miktar baz\u0131nda ihracat, \u015fubatta y\u00fczde 10.2 artarak 9.4 milyon ton oldu. S\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde en fazla ihracat yap\u0131lan 5 \u00fclke s\u0131ras\u0131yla Almanya, \u0130ngiltere, Irak, \u0130talya ve ABD oldu. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk iki ay\u0131nda y\u00fczdesel bazda en y\u00fcksek ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 139 ile Malta ve y\u00fczde 112 ile Singapur\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. En dikkat \u00e7ekici art\u0131\u015flar \u00c7in, \u0130srail ve ABD\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu \u00fclkelere ihracat, s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 67, 27.8 ve 26.5 art\u0131\u015f kaydetti. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">En fazla ihracat yap\u0131lan \u00fc\u00e7 il; 4 milyar 726 milyon 491 bin dolarla \u0130stanbul, 1 milyar 148 milyon 632 bin dolarla Bursa ve 1 milyar 42 milyon 286 bin dolarla Kocaeli <\/span><span class=\"large\">\u015feklinde s\u0131raland\u0131. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>\u015eUBAT AYI ENFLASYON BEKLENT\u0130S\u0130 <\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ekonomistlerin genel beklenti ortalamas\u0131, \u015fubat ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0.5 enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131. Bununla birlikte, y\u00fczde 0.1 art\u0131\u015f bekleyen ekonomist de var. Anadolu Ajans\u0131 Finans Portal\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Enflasyon Beklenti Anketi\u2019ne kat\u0131lan ekonomistler ise \u015fubat ay\u0131nda T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (T\u00dcFE) y\u00fczde 0.40 artaca\u011f\u0131 ortalama beklentisine i\u015faret ettiler. Ankete kat\u0131lan ekonomistlerin \u015fubat ay\u0131 i\u00e7in enflasyon beklentileri en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck y\u00fczde eksi 0.14 ve en y\u00fcksek y\u00fczde 0.69 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yer ald\u0131. Ekonomistlerin 2017 sonu enflasyon beklentisinin ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 8.76 oldu. Ankete kat\u0131lan ekonomistler aras\u0131nda y\u0131l sonu enflasyon beklentisinin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck y\u00fczde 8 ve en y\u00fcksek y\u00fczde 9.60 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ekonomistlerin \u015fubat ay\u0131 enflasyon beklentilerinin ortalamas\u0131na (y\u00fczde 0.40) g\u00f6re, bir \u00f6nceki ay y\u00fczde 9.22 olan y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyonun, y\u00fczde 9.68\u2019e y\u00fckselece\u011fi hesaplan\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">1 Mart \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc, \u0130TO\u2019nun a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 veriye g\u00f6re ise \u0130stanbul\u2019da \u015fubat ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki aya k\u0131yasla perakende fiyatlar y\u00fczde 0.33, toptan fiyatlar y\u00fczde 0.20 artt\u0131. Perakende fiyatlar 2017 \u015fubat ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 8.52, toptan fiyatlar ise y\u00fczde 12.29 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. \u0130stanbul\u2019un \u015fubat ay\u0131 enflasyonu, t\u00fcm T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in ortalama y\u00fczde 0.4 enflasyon beklentisini teyit ediyor. Bununla birlikte ayl\u0131k enflasyonun y\u00fczde 0.1 ile 0.2 aras\u0131 gelmesi piyasalarca olumlu kar\u015f\u0131lanabilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>FED TANS\u0130YONU ARTIRDI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ekonominin bir di\u011fer kritik ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, yakla\u015f\u0131k iki hafta sonra sonu\u00e7lanacak olan, iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck Fed A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131. Daha bir hafta \u00f6nce, mart ay\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131da Fed yetkililerinin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik karar alma ihtimali y\u00fczde 35 iken, bu oran bu hafta bir anda y\u00fczde 60 ile 80 aras\u0131na s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Bununla birlikte dolar-TL kuru 3.56 TL seviyelerinden 3.65 TL seviyelerine y\u00fckselirken, euro-dolar paritesi de 1.0570 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Jan Hatzius\u2019un da aralar\u0131nda bulundu\u011fu Goldman Sachs ekonomistlerinin kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir m\u00fc\u015fteri bilgilendirme notunda, b\u00f6lgesel Fed Ba\u015fkanlar\u0131 Kaplan, Wlliams ve Dudley\u2019nin yorumlar\u0131n\u0131n, FOMC\u2019un mart toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gidilmesini ciddi bir \u015fekilde de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fine ili\u015fkin \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015faretler\u201d oldu\u011fu belirtilmi\u015f. Goldman ekonomistleri Fed\u2019in mart ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gidilmesi ihtimalini y\u00fczde 60 seviyesine y\u00fckseltmi\u015fler. Goldman, may\u0131s ay\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini y\u00fczde 10\u2019a ve haziran ay\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini de y\u00fczde 25\u2019e indirmi\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">TCMB\u2019nin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 proaktif tedbirler ve Trump y\u00f6netiminin g\u00f6reve ba\u015flamas\u0131 ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00f6lgesinde azalan gerginlik, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimalinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine ra\u011fmen dolar-TL kurunu 3.64-3.68 TL band\u0131nda tutuyor. T\u00fcrkiye ile ilgili verilerin olumlu \u00e7\u0131kmaya devam etmesi ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc beklentiye ra\u011fmen Fed\u2019in mart ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131 es ge\u00e7mesi halinde, dolar-TL kurunda tekrar bir yumu\u015fama g\u00f6zlenebilir.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"ihracat-iyi-geldi-gozler-enflasyonda","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u0130hracat iyi geldi, g\u00f6zler enflasyonda","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":105,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}