{"status":true,"post":{"id":52422,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-06-03 09:18:00","created_at":"2024-06-03T06:18:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-06-03T06:18:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":52422,"is_featured":0,"title":"Haziran ay\u0131nda bizi neler bekliyor ve etkileri ne olur?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Yurt i\u00e7erisinde belki de en \u00f6nemli konu, may\u0131s ay\u0131 enflasyon rakam\u0131d\u0131r. 2023 May\u0131s\u2019ta ayl\u0131k sadece y\u00fczde 0.04 oran\u0131nda artan t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, TCMB Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi\u2019ne g\u00f6re bu y\u0131l may\u0131s ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.04 olarak bekleniyor. Nisan ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.18 gelen ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE verisi, Mart 2024\u2019teki y\u00fczde 3.16 ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti. Bu durumda May\u0131s 2024 itibariyle y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon verisi de zirve yaparak y\u00fczde 73 civar\u0131nda bir orana yerle\u015febilir. Haziran ay\u0131nda bir s\u00fcrpriz olmazsa ve kurlar y\u00fckselmezse 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 haziran ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.96 ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131nda bir ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f, y\u0131ll\u0131kta ufak da olsa a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir harekete yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu durum baz etkisi nedeniyle olsa da enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin ba\u015f\u0131na gelmi\u015f olabiliriz. Kurlarda art\u0131\u015f olmamas\u0131 kayd\u0131yla enflasyonda yani fiyatlar\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda yava\u015flama olacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

ENFLASYONDA D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015e TREND\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Burada uluslararas\u0131 nakit ak\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00f6nemli hale geldi\u011finden s\u0131cak paran\u0131n veya yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n menkul k\u0131ymet piyasalar\u0131na girmek i\u00e7in bozdu\u011fu d\u00f6viz, kurlarda y\u00fckseli\u015f ihtimalini azalt\u0131yor. Bu durumda enflasyonda da beklentiler bozulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece y\u00f6n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Tekrar belirtmekte fayda var. Baz etkisi nedeniyle enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin ba\u015f\u0131na geldik. May\u0131s verisi sonras\u0131 art\u0131k a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketleri g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flayabiliriz.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, uygulanan Ortodoks politikalar sayesinde reel ve y\u00fcksek getirilere kavu\u015ftu. Bu durumda h\u0131zla TL cinsi varl\u0131klara ge\u00e7erek \u2018carry trade\u2019 dedi\u011fimiz i\u015flemi ba\u015flatt\u0131lar. TCMB bu sayede eksi net rezervlerini neredeyse tamamen kapatma noktas\u0131na geldi. Ancak bu paran\u0131n s\u0131cak oldu\u011fu ve menkul k\u0131ymet piyasalar\u0131yla d\u00f6vizde ciddi dalgalanma yapabilecek \u00f6zellikleri oldu\u011fu unutulmamal\u0131. \u015eimdi yabanc\u0131lar d\u00f6vizi T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019na \u00e7evirerek TL depo dedi\u011fimiz mevduata ve a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 y\u00fcksek getirili TL tahvillere yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131yor. Nispeten \u00e7ok daha az rakamlar\u0131 da borsaya kayd\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

GR\u0130 L\u0130STEDEN \u00c7IKI\u015e<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Haziran ay\u0131nda gri liste g\u00fcndemimiz de var ve son derece \u00f6nemli. E\u011fer bu listeden \u00e7\u0131kmay\u0131 ba\u015farabilirsek ki, Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131za inan\u0131yor, o zaman yabanc\u0131 giri\u015fleri artacakt\u0131r. \u015eim\u015fek\u2019in bir ifadesi \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. O da \u201cE\u011fer dolar almasayd\u0131k, 20\u2019li seviyeleri g\u00f6r\u00fcrd\u00fc\u201d demesidir. TCMB rezervleri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirici al\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, gelen d\u00f6viz piyasada a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ancak TCMB net rezervleri art\u0131ya d\u00f6nmek \u00fczere. E\u011fer TCMB al\u0131m\u0131 durdurursa d\u00f6vizde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareket olma ihtimali artacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

YURT DI\u015eI TALEP<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00dclkemizde enflasyonun k\u00f6kenine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, kur ataklar\u0131n\u0131n ana sebep oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz. \u015eu an a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir kur hareketi olma potansiyeli art\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bir yandan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n TL lehine \u2018uzun\u2019 pozisyon \u00f6nermeleri, di\u011fer yandan CDS\u2019lerdeki ciddi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler yabanc\u0131 e\u011filimini g\u00f6sterirken, rating \u015firketlerinin hep birlikte g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmleri pozitife \u00e7evirerek havay\u0131 olumlu tutmas\u0131 katk\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ancak h\u00e2l\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir stat\u00fcde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z unutulmamal\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bir yandan y\u00fcksek faizler ve d\u00fc\u015fen enflasyon nedeniyle bu faizle al\u0131nan kredilerin kazand\u0131rmama potansiyelinin y\u00fcksekli\u011fi, di\u011fer yandan da i\u00e7 talebi daralt\u0131c\u0131 tedbirler, sadece i\u00e7 piyasaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan firmalar\u0131n daha s\u0131cak bir yaz ge\u00e7irmesine neden olabilir. Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 talep canl\u0131 olmazsa o zaman reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn daha da zorlanaca\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme girece\u011fiz.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"haziran-ayinda-bizi-neler-bekliyor-ve-etkileri-ne-olur","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1717362000eFnKmC9xf2c51p3.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":9548,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":52548,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":52422,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Haziran ay\u0131nda bizi neler bekliyor ve etkileri ne olur?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Yurt i\u00e7erisinde belki de en \u00f6nemli konu, may\u0131s ay\u0131 enflasyon rakam\u0131d\u0131r. 2023 May\u0131s\u2019ta ayl\u0131k sadece y\u00fczde 0.04 oran\u0131nda artan t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, TCMB Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 Anketi\u2019ne g\u00f6re bu y\u0131l may\u0131s ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.04 olarak bekleniyor. Nisan ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.18 gelen ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE verisi, Mart 2024\u2019teki y\u00fczde 3.16 ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti. Bu durumda May\u0131s 2024 itibariyle y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon verisi de zirve yaparak y\u00fczde 73 civar\u0131nda bir orana yerle\u015febilir. Haziran ay\u0131nda bir s\u00fcrpriz olmazsa ve kurlar y\u00fckselmezse 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 haziran ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.96 ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131nda bir ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f, y\u0131ll\u0131kta ufak da olsa a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir harekete yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu durum baz etkisi nedeniyle olsa da enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin ba\u015f\u0131na gelmi\u015f olabiliriz. Kurlarda art\u0131\u015f olmamas\u0131 kayd\u0131yla enflasyonda yani fiyatlar\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda yava\u015flama olacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

ENFLASYONDA D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015e TREND\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Burada uluslararas\u0131 nakit ak\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00f6nemli hale geldi\u011finden s\u0131cak paran\u0131n veya yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n menkul k\u0131ymet piyasalar\u0131na girmek i\u00e7in bozdu\u011fu d\u00f6viz, kurlarda y\u00fckseli\u015f ihtimalini azalt\u0131yor. Bu durumda enflasyonda da beklentiler bozulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece y\u00f6n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Tekrar belirtmekte fayda var. Baz etkisi nedeniyle enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin ba\u015f\u0131na geldik. May\u0131s verisi sonras\u0131 art\u0131k a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketleri g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flayabiliriz.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, uygulanan Ortodoks politikalar sayesinde reel ve y\u00fcksek getirilere kavu\u015ftu. Bu durumda h\u0131zla TL cinsi varl\u0131klara ge\u00e7erek \u2018carry trade\u2019 dedi\u011fimiz i\u015flemi ba\u015flatt\u0131lar. TCMB bu sayede eksi net rezervlerini neredeyse tamamen kapatma noktas\u0131na geldi. Ancak bu paran\u0131n s\u0131cak oldu\u011fu ve menkul k\u0131ymet piyasalar\u0131yla d\u00f6vizde ciddi dalgalanma yapabilecek \u00f6zellikleri oldu\u011fu unutulmamal\u0131. \u015eimdi yabanc\u0131lar d\u00f6vizi T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019na \u00e7evirerek TL depo dedi\u011fimiz mevduata ve a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 y\u00fcksek getirili TL tahvillere yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131yor. Nispeten \u00e7ok daha az rakamlar\u0131 da borsaya kayd\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

GR\u0130 L\u0130STEDEN \u00c7IKI\u015e<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Haziran ay\u0131nda gri liste g\u00fcndemimiz de var ve son derece \u00f6nemli. E\u011fer bu listeden \u00e7\u0131kmay\u0131 ba\u015farabilirsek ki, Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131za inan\u0131yor, o zaman yabanc\u0131 giri\u015fleri artacakt\u0131r. \u015eim\u015fek\u2019in bir ifadesi \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. O da \u201cE\u011fer dolar almasayd\u0131k, 20\u2019li seviyeleri g\u00f6r\u00fcrd\u00fc\u201d demesidir. TCMB rezervleri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirici al\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, gelen d\u00f6viz piyasada a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ancak TCMB net rezervleri art\u0131ya d\u00f6nmek \u00fczere. E\u011fer TCMB al\u0131m\u0131 durdurursa d\u00f6vizde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareket olma ihtimali artacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

YURT DI\u015eI TALEP<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00dclkemizde enflasyonun k\u00f6kenine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, kur ataklar\u0131n\u0131n ana sebep oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz. \u015eu an a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir kur hareketi olma potansiyeli art\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bir yandan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n TL lehine \u2018uzun\u2019 pozisyon \u00f6nermeleri, di\u011fer yandan CDS\u2019lerdeki ciddi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler yabanc\u0131 e\u011filimini g\u00f6sterirken, rating \u015firketlerinin hep birlikte g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmleri pozitife \u00e7evirerek havay\u0131 olumlu tutmas\u0131 katk\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ancak h\u00e2l\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir stat\u00fcde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z unutulmamal\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bir yandan y\u00fcksek faizler ve d\u00fc\u015fen enflasyon nedeniyle bu faizle al\u0131nan kredilerin kazand\u0131rmama potansiyelinin y\u00fcksekli\u011fi, di\u011fer yandan da i\u00e7 talebi daralt\u0131c\u0131 tedbirler, sadece i\u00e7 piyasaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan firmalar\u0131n daha s\u0131cak bir yaz ge\u00e7irmesine neden olabilir. Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 talep canl\u0131 olmazsa o zaman reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn daha da zorlanaca\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme girece\u011fiz.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"haziran-ayinda-bizi-neler-bekliyor-ve-etkileri-ne-olur","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1717362000eFnKmC9xf2c51p3.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1717362000eFnKmC9xf2c51p3.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":9548,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}