{"status":true,"post":{"id":33282,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 21:20:06","created_at":"2022-06-02T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T18:20:06.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":33282,"is_featured":0,"title":"Global b\u00fcy\u00fcmede riskler ve beklentiler","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

H\u0130KMET BAYDAR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu, 31 May\u0131s 2022 g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcltenle b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu verilere g\u00f6re, GSYH 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 birinci \u00e7eyrek ilk tahmini; zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksi olarak, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 7.3 artt\u0131. <\/span>
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Piyasa beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 7.2 idi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla veri, beklenti seviyelerinde geldi diyebiliriz. <\/span>
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A\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re AB b\u00f6lgesinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmede ikinci \u00fclke durumunday\u0131z. Bir de dolar baz\u0131nda bakal\u0131m.<\/span>
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2020 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bug\u00fcne kadar cari fiyatlarla ve \u00e7eyrek bazda verilen Gayri Safi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la verilerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, en y\u00fcksek dolar baz\u0131nda has\u0131lan\u0131n 225.983 milyon dolar has\u0131la ile 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde verildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Global arz aksakl\u0131klar\u0131 ve lojistik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar nedeniyle tedarik zorlu\u011fu ya\u015fanan d\u00f6nemde dolar baz\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir art\u0131\u015f yakalanm\u0131\u015f. Ancak bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n yani 2020 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde de nispeten y\u00fcksek cirolar\u0131n yakalanarak 196.582 milyon dolar has\u0131lan\u0131n elde edildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. <\/span>
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S\u00f6z konusu tablo bize, global arz ve lojistik aksakl\u0131klar\u0131ndan \u00f6yle ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc yararlanamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Yani ihracatta dolar baz\u0131nda gelirde \u00f6yle aman aman bir s\u0131\u00e7rama s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fil. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 birinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde 176.200 milyon dolar, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 birinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde 188.655 milyon dolar ve 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 birinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde 179.800 milyon dolar has\u0131la sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015f. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda olan bir veri s\u00f6z konusu. Bu fiyatlar\u0131n i\u00e7erisinde dolar baz\u0131nda artan fiyatlama da bulunuyor. O y\u00fczden fiyat etkisini kald\u0131ran zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksinde 173\u2019ten 185.7 seviyesine bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span>
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B\u00dcY\u00dcMEDE YAVA\u015eLAMA<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Global b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n da alt\u0131na inmi\u015f. <\/span>
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\u00d6yle ki, T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanan raporlarda y\u00fczde 2.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklendi\u011fi bile belirtilmi\u015f. Bu veriye g\u00f6re \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde b\u00fcy\u00fcmede \u00f6nemli bir yava\u015flama olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek yanl\u0131\u015f olmayacak.<\/span>
<\/span>
Peki neden b\u00fcy\u00fcmede karamsar bir hava hakim?<\/span>
<\/span>
En \u00f6nemli neden, Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 ve bu nedenle getirilen k\u0131s\u0131tlamalard\u0131r. Bir yandan her iki \u00fclkenin d\u00fcnyan\u0131n tah\u0131l ambar\u0131 durumunda olmas\u0131 ve \u00fcr\u00fcn sevk edememeleri, di\u011fer yandan do\u011falgaz sat\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ruble \u015fart\u0131 ve baz\u0131 \u00fclkelere do\u011falgaz sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131, hem enerji arz\u0131 hem de \u00fcr\u00fcn arz\u0131 konusunda ciddi sorunlar\u0131 da beraberinde getiriyor.<\/span>
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Di\u011fer bir neden, son y\u0131llar\u0131n rekorlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131ran enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 bat\u0131n\u0131n faiz silah\u0131n\u0131 kullanmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131d\u0131r. Ama\u00e7 talebi dizginlemek oldu\u011funa g\u00f6re, ticareti yava\u015flatacak bir etkiden bahsediyoruz. <\/span>
<\/span>
Ba\u015fka bir neden de parasal daralmaya gidilecek olmas\u0131. Fed, 1 Haziran\u2019dan itibaren ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurmu\u015ftu. ECB ise 2023\u2019te yapmay\u0131 planl\u0131yor. <\/span>
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Bir ba\u015fka neden, y\u00fckselen enflasyon sebebiyle i\u015fletme sermayesi ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 ve kredi b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kapatacak kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck olmamas\u0131. O y\u00fczden kredi temininde eski rahatl\u0131k yava\u015f yava\u015f kaybolabilir. <\/span>
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FIRSATA \u00c7EVR\u0130LEB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi gibi global anlamda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen riskler, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 daha konservatif davranmaya zorluyor. Bu arada borsalar y\u00fcksek enflasyon, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz d\u00f6neminin avantaj\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye devam ediyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
\u00c7in\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri d\u00fc\u015ferken, ciddi lojistik ve \u00fcretim s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 ya\u015farken, sorunun \u00e7ok k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede d\u00fczelece\u011fini de bekleyemiyoruz. <\/span>
<\/span>
Ancak AB pazar\u0131na yak\u0131n olmam\u0131z ve KOB\u0130 tarz\u0131 esnek \u00fcretim modeline sahip olmam\u0131z nedeniyle talebe h\u0131zl\u0131 cevap vermenin avantaj\u0131yla krizi f\u0131rsata \u00e7evirme potansiyelimiz var.<\/span>
<\/span>
\u00d6nemli olan \u015firket tepe y\u00f6netiminin, global risk ve f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 objektif olarak masaya yat\u0131r\u0131p do\u011fru kararlarla avantajl\u0131 konuma gelebilecek yetkinlik ve etkinlikte olup olmad\u0131klar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span>
<\/span>
Global daralma bizim zorunlu olarak daralaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z anlam\u0131na gelmez.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"global-buyumede-riskler-ve-beklentiler","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Global b\u00fcy\u00fcmede riskler ve beklentiler","meta_description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1089,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":33381,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":33282,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Global b\u00fcy\u00fcmede riskler ve beklentiler","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

H\u0130KMET BAYDAR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu, 31 May\u0131s 2022 g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcltenle b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu verilere g\u00f6re, GSYH 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 birinci \u00e7eyrek ilk tahmini; zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksi olarak, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 7.3 artt\u0131. <\/span>
<\/span>
Piyasa beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 7.2 idi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla veri, beklenti seviyelerinde geldi diyebiliriz. <\/span>
<\/span>
A\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re AB b\u00f6lgesinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmede ikinci \u00fclke durumunday\u0131z. Bir de dolar baz\u0131nda bakal\u0131m.<\/span>
<\/span>
2020 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bug\u00fcne kadar cari fiyatlarla ve \u00e7eyrek bazda verilen Gayri Safi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la verilerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, en y\u00fcksek dolar baz\u0131nda has\u0131lan\u0131n 225.983 milyon dolar has\u0131la ile 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde verildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Global arz aksakl\u0131klar\u0131 ve lojistik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar nedeniyle tedarik zorlu\u011fu ya\u015fanan d\u00f6nemde dolar baz\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir art\u0131\u015f yakalanm\u0131\u015f. Ancak bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n yani 2020 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde de nispeten y\u00fcksek cirolar\u0131n yakalanarak 196.582 milyon dolar has\u0131lan\u0131n elde edildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. <\/span>
<\/span>
S\u00f6z konusu tablo bize, global arz ve lojistik aksakl\u0131klar\u0131ndan \u00f6yle ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc yararlanamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Yani ihracatta dolar baz\u0131nda gelirde \u00f6yle aman aman bir s\u0131\u00e7rama s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fil. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 birinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde 176.200 milyon dolar, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 birinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde 188.655 milyon dolar ve 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 birinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde 179.800 milyon dolar has\u0131la sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015f. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda olan bir veri s\u00f6z konusu. Bu fiyatlar\u0131n i\u00e7erisinde dolar baz\u0131nda artan fiyatlama da bulunuyor. O y\u00fczden fiyat etkisini kald\u0131ran zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksinde 173\u2019ten 185.7 seviyesine bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
B\u00dcY\u00dcMEDE YAVA\u015eLAMA<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Global b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n da alt\u0131na inmi\u015f. <\/span>
<\/span>
\u00d6yle ki, T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanan raporlarda y\u00fczde 2.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklendi\u011fi bile belirtilmi\u015f. Bu veriye g\u00f6re \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde b\u00fcy\u00fcmede \u00f6nemli bir yava\u015flama olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek yanl\u0131\u015f olmayacak.<\/span>
<\/span>
Peki neden b\u00fcy\u00fcmede karamsar bir hava hakim?<\/span>
<\/span>
En \u00f6nemli neden, Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 ve bu nedenle getirilen k\u0131s\u0131tlamalard\u0131r. Bir yandan her iki \u00fclkenin d\u00fcnyan\u0131n tah\u0131l ambar\u0131 durumunda olmas\u0131 ve \u00fcr\u00fcn sevk edememeleri, di\u011fer yandan do\u011falgaz sat\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ruble \u015fart\u0131 ve baz\u0131 \u00fclkelere do\u011falgaz sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131, hem enerji arz\u0131 hem de \u00fcr\u00fcn arz\u0131 konusunda ciddi sorunlar\u0131 da beraberinde getiriyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
Di\u011fer bir neden, son y\u0131llar\u0131n rekorlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131ran enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 bat\u0131n\u0131n faiz silah\u0131n\u0131 kullanmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131d\u0131r. Ama\u00e7 talebi dizginlemek oldu\u011funa g\u00f6re, ticareti yava\u015flatacak bir etkiden bahsediyoruz. <\/span>
<\/span>
Ba\u015fka bir neden de parasal daralmaya gidilecek olmas\u0131. Fed, 1 Haziran\u2019dan itibaren ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurmu\u015ftu. ECB ise 2023\u2019te yapmay\u0131 planl\u0131yor. <\/span>
<\/span>
Bir ba\u015fka neden, y\u00fckselen enflasyon sebebiyle i\u015fletme sermayesi ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 ve kredi b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kapatacak kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck olmamas\u0131. O y\u00fczden kredi temininde eski rahatl\u0131k yava\u015f yava\u015f kaybolabilir. <\/span>
<\/span>
FIRSATA \u00c7EVR\u0130LEB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi gibi global anlamda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen riskler, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 daha konservatif davranmaya zorluyor. Bu arada borsalar y\u00fcksek enflasyon, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz d\u00f6neminin avantaj\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye devam ediyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
\u00c7in\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri d\u00fc\u015ferken, ciddi lojistik ve \u00fcretim s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 ya\u015farken, sorunun \u00e7ok k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede d\u00fczelece\u011fini de bekleyemiyoruz. <\/span>
<\/span>
Ancak AB pazar\u0131na yak\u0131n olmam\u0131z ve KOB\u0130 tarz\u0131 esnek \u00fcretim modeline sahip olmam\u0131z nedeniyle talebe h\u0131zl\u0131 cevap vermenin avantaj\u0131yla krizi f\u0131rsata \u00e7evirme potansiyelimiz var.<\/span>
<\/span>
\u00d6nemli olan \u015firket tepe y\u00f6netiminin, global risk ve f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 objektif olarak masaya yat\u0131r\u0131p do\u011fru kararlarla avantajl\u0131 konuma gelebilecek yetkinlik ve etkinlikte olup olmad\u0131klar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span>
<\/span>
Global daralma bizim zorunlu olarak daralaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z anlam\u0131na gelmez.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"global-buyumede-riskler-ve-beklentiler","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Global b\u00fcy\u00fcmede riskler ve beklentiler","meta_description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1089,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}