{"status":true,"post":{"id":15462,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:58:17","created_at":"2016-12-18T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:58:17.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":15462,"is_featured":0,"title":"Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la verisi bize ne anlat\u0131yor?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Ulusal Hesaplar Sistemi\u2019nde tahmin edilen temel b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerin en \u00f6nemlisi ve odak noktas\u0131 Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la\u2019d\u0131r (GSYH). GSYH, bir \u00fclkedeki belirli bir d\u00f6nemde \u00fcretilen mal ve hizmetlerden dolay\u0131 olu\u015fan katma de\u011fere ili\u015fkin standart bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcd\u00fcr. T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu 12 Aral\u0131k 2016 g\u00fcn\u00fc 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi (Temmuz-Eyl\u00fcl d\u00f6nemi) Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la rakam\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu veri darbe giri\u015fiminin oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7ermesi nedeniyle di\u011fer verilere g\u00f6re b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem arz etmekteydi.<\/span><\/p>

Veriye g\u00f6re; Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la tahmini, zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksi olarak (2009=100), 2016\u2019n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 1.8 azald\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la\u2019y\u0131 olu\u015fturan faaliyetler incelendi\u011finde; tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn toplam katma de\u011feri, 2016\u2019n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re, zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksi olarak y\u00fczde 7.7 azald\u0131. Sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn toplam katma de\u011feri y\u00fczde 1.4 azald\u0131. \u0130n\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn toplam katma de\u011feri y\u00fczde 1.4 artt\u0131 ve hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn toplam katma de\u011feri y\u00fczde 8.4 azald\u0131. Veriler ortada. Tar\u0131m ve hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc olduk\u00e7a ciddi \u015fekilde etkilenmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc daralma olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek boyutta. Hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn olumsuz etkilenmesi son derece do\u011fal. Sonu\u00e7ta turizm sekt\u00f6r\u00fc do\u011frudan g\u00fcvenle alakal\u0131 ve Bat\u0131 yang\u0131na k\u00f6r\u00fckle gidiyor. Gerginlik de en \u00e7ok turizmi etkiliyor. Ne zaman bir ter\u00f6rist sald\u0131r\u0131 olsa hemen rezervasyon iptalleri ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle de ter\u00f6rizmin en \u00e7ok ma\u011fdur etti\u011fi sekt\u00f6r turizmdir.<\/span><\/p>

Tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne bak\u0131nca y\u00fczde 7.7 daralma bizi olduk\u00e7a tedirgin etti. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc mevsimsel bir kurakl\u0131k gibi tabiat olay\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 halde bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131. Muhakkak yak\u0131ndan irdelenmesi gerekiyor. Aksi halde tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabiliriz. Bu geli\u015fme bizi tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ithalat\u0131na do\u011fru g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcr.<\/span><\/p>

Sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki daralma in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcyle kar\u015f\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de h\u0131zl\u0131 n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olan \u00fclkemizde bu t\u00fcr daralmalar ciddi i\u015fsizlik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. <\/span><\/p>

2015 ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri y\u00fczde 3.5 - 7.4 aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f olan T\u00fcrkiye, 2016 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>

Hane halklar\u0131n\u0131n nihai t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131, 2016\u2019n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re zincirleme hacim endeksi olarak y\u00fczde 3.2 azal\u0131rken, devletin nihai t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 y\u00fczde 23.8 artm\u0131\u015f. Bir nevi halk\u0131n bo\u015flu\u011fu kamu taraf\u0131ndan doldurulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f gibi bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc var. <\/span><\/p>

Mal ve hizmet ihracat\u0131, 2016\u2019n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re zincirleme hacim endeksi olarak y\u00fczde 7 azald\u0131. Bu durum gelecekte \u00fcretim daralmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar m\u0131 bilemiyoruz ama \u00fcretimde yava\u015flamaya neden olma riski fazla.<\/span><\/p>

G\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ki, darbe giri\u015fiminin de i\u00e7erisinde oldu\u011fu \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcme sekteye u\u011fram\u0131\u015f. Global daralma da b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin olumsuzlu\u011funa tuz biber olmu\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>

Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn en \u00e7ok ihtiyac\u0131 olan \u015fey g\u00fcven ve gelece\u011fi daha \u00f6ng\u00f6rebilir olmakt\u0131r. Kurlardaki hareketlilikler de \u00f6nemli sorunlar olu\u015fturuyor. <\/span><\/p>

Hem d\u00f6viz kredi teminatlar\u0131n\u0131n yetersizle\u015fmesi nedeniyle kredi limit sorunu ya\u015fayan firmalar hem de fiyatlama sorunlar\u0131 piyasan\u0131n frene basmas\u0131nda en \u00f6nemli nedenler aras\u0131ndad\u0131r. <\/span><\/p>

Fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru yapan, nakit dengesini do\u011fru ayarlayan, piyasada tedarik\u00e7isinden memnun olmayan bir s\u00fcr\u00fc hedef m\u00fc\u015fteriyi rahatl\u0131kla portf\u00f6y\u00fcne katarak h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler sa\u011flayabilir. \u0130htiya\u00e7 olan sadece profesyonel y\u00f6netim.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"gayrisafi-yurtici-hasila-verisi-bize-ne-anlatiyor","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la verisi bize ne anlat\u0131yor?","meta_description":"Hikmet Baydar","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":99,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":15561,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":15462,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la verisi bize ne anlat\u0131yor?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Ulusal Hesaplar Sistemi\u2019nde tahmin edilen temel b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerin en \u00f6nemlisi ve odak noktas\u0131 Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la\u2019d\u0131r (GSYH). GSYH, bir \u00fclkedeki belirli bir d\u00f6nemde \u00fcretilen mal ve hizmetlerden dolay\u0131 olu\u015fan katma de\u011fere ili\u015fkin standart bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcd\u00fcr. T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu 12 Aral\u0131k 2016 g\u00fcn\u00fc 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi (Temmuz-Eyl\u00fcl d\u00f6nemi) Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la rakam\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu veri darbe giri\u015fiminin oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7ermesi nedeniyle di\u011fer verilere g\u00f6re b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem arz etmekteydi.<\/span><\/p>

Veriye g\u00f6re; Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la tahmini, zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksi olarak (2009=100), 2016\u2019n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 1.8 azald\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la\u2019y\u0131 olu\u015fturan faaliyetler incelendi\u011finde; tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn toplam katma de\u011feri, 2016\u2019n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re, zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksi olarak y\u00fczde 7.7 azald\u0131. Sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn toplam katma de\u011feri y\u00fczde 1.4 azald\u0131. \u0130n\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn toplam katma de\u011feri y\u00fczde 1.4 artt\u0131 ve hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn toplam katma de\u011feri y\u00fczde 8.4 azald\u0131. Veriler ortada. Tar\u0131m ve hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc olduk\u00e7a ciddi \u015fekilde etkilenmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc daralma olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek boyutta. Hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn olumsuz etkilenmesi son derece do\u011fal. Sonu\u00e7ta turizm sekt\u00f6r\u00fc do\u011frudan g\u00fcvenle alakal\u0131 ve Bat\u0131 yang\u0131na k\u00f6r\u00fckle gidiyor. Gerginlik de en \u00e7ok turizmi etkiliyor. Ne zaman bir ter\u00f6rist sald\u0131r\u0131 olsa hemen rezervasyon iptalleri ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Bu nedenle de ter\u00f6rizmin en \u00e7ok ma\u011fdur etti\u011fi sekt\u00f6r turizmdir.<\/span><\/p>

Tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne bak\u0131nca y\u00fczde 7.7 daralma bizi olduk\u00e7a tedirgin etti. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc mevsimsel bir kurakl\u0131k gibi tabiat olay\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 halde bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131. Muhakkak yak\u0131ndan irdelenmesi gerekiyor. Aksi halde tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabiliriz. Bu geli\u015fme bizi tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ithalat\u0131na do\u011fru g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcr.<\/span><\/p>

Sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki daralma in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcyle kar\u015f\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de h\u0131zl\u0131 n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olan \u00fclkemizde bu t\u00fcr daralmalar ciddi i\u015fsizlik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. <\/span><\/p>

2015 ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri y\u00fczde 3.5 - 7.4 aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f olan T\u00fcrkiye, 2016 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>

Hane halklar\u0131n\u0131n nihai t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131, 2016\u2019n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re zincirleme hacim endeksi olarak y\u00fczde 3.2 azal\u0131rken, devletin nihai t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 y\u00fczde 23.8 artm\u0131\u015f. Bir nevi halk\u0131n bo\u015flu\u011fu kamu taraf\u0131ndan doldurulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f gibi bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc var. <\/span><\/p>

Mal ve hizmet ihracat\u0131, 2016\u2019n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re zincirleme hacim endeksi olarak y\u00fczde 7 azald\u0131. Bu durum gelecekte \u00fcretim daralmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar m\u0131 bilemiyoruz ama \u00fcretimde yava\u015flamaya neden olma riski fazla.<\/span><\/p>

G\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ki, darbe giri\u015fiminin de i\u00e7erisinde oldu\u011fu \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcme sekteye u\u011fram\u0131\u015f. Global daralma da b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin olumsuzlu\u011funa tuz biber olmu\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>

Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn en \u00e7ok ihtiyac\u0131 olan \u015fey g\u00fcven ve gelece\u011fi daha \u00f6ng\u00f6rebilir olmakt\u0131r. Kurlardaki hareketlilikler de \u00f6nemli sorunlar olu\u015fturuyor. <\/span><\/p>

Hem d\u00f6viz kredi teminatlar\u0131n\u0131n yetersizle\u015fmesi nedeniyle kredi limit sorunu ya\u015fayan firmalar hem de fiyatlama sorunlar\u0131 piyasan\u0131n frene basmas\u0131nda en \u00f6nemli nedenler aras\u0131ndad\u0131r. <\/span><\/p>

Fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru yapan, nakit dengesini do\u011fru ayarlayan, piyasada tedarik\u00e7isinden memnun olmayan bir s\u00fcr\u00fc hedef m\u00fc\u015fteriyi rahatl\u0131kla portf\u00f6y\u00fcne katarak h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler sa\u011flayabilir. \u0130htiya\u00e7 olan sadece profesyonel y\u00f6netim.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"gayrisafi-yurtici-hasila-verisi-bize-ne-anlatiyor","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la verisi bize ne anlat\u0131yor?","meta_description":"Hikmet Baydar","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":99,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}