{"status":true,"post":{"id":13584,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:29:52","created_at":"2016-04-24T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:29:52.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":13584,"is_featured":0,"title":"Faiz indirimi ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6revini Do\u00e7. Dr. Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019dan \u00fcstlenen Murat \u00c7etinkaya, ilk kez Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019na ba\u015fkanl\u0131k etti. Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyonun, ge\u00e7en y\u0131lsonu, 2016\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131 itibariyle, y\u00fczde 9\u2019lar\u0131n \u00fczerindeyken, nisan ay\u0131 sonunda, y\u00fczde 7\u2019nin bile alt\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi bir beklentiye i\u015faret etmesi, 20 Nisan\u2019da PPK\u2019dan \u00e7\u0131kabilecek faiz koridoru \u00fcst band\u0131 indirim beklentisini en az 25, \u00e7o\u011funlukla 50 ile 75 baz puan aras\u0131nda bir aral\u0131\u011fa ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Nitekim faiz koridoru \u00fcst band\u0131 50 baz puan indirildi. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Mart ay\u0131ndaki PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131ndaki 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi sonras\u0131nda, bu ikinci indirim karar\u0131yla, T\u00fcrk ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin mevcut ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n izin verebildi\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcdeki faiz indirim ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn tamamlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtenler de var. Yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n, yurt i\u00e7i piyasada yat\u0131r\u0131m yapt\u0131klar\u0131 hisse senedi ve tahvillerimizden 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda 9 milyar dolara yak\u0131n \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131klar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz \u015fubat ay\u0131ndaki 1 milyar 351 milyon dolarl\u0131k ve mart ay\u0131ndaki 1 milyar 690 milyon dolarl\u0131k giri\u015f, TL\u2019deki de\u011ferlenmeyi izah ediyor. Bununla birlikte, 1-8 Nisan aras\u0131, 126 milyon dolar hisse senedine giri\u015fi s\u00fcrd\u00fcren yabanc\u0131lar, 32 milyon dolar tahvillerden, 181 milyon dolar da repodan \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015flar.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu hafta,ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (FED) A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi, k\u00fcresel piyasalar ABD verilerini dikkatle takip ederken, mevcut k\u00fcresel ortam\u0131n, geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilere sermaye giri\u015finin, TCMB PPK\u2019n\u0131n son indirim karar\u0131n\u0131 hayli destekleyici oldu\u011fu vurgulan\u0131yor. Mevcut yorumlar, TCMB PPK\u2019n\u0131n 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir indiriminin dolar-TL kuru \u00fczerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir etkiye sebep olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bu noktada, 2.83 TL\u2019nin alt\u0131nda da i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne \u015fahit oldu\u011fumuz dolar-TL kurunun, bu karar \u00f6ncesinde zaten 2.86 TL civar\u0131na oturdu\u011funu; dolar-TL kurunun 2.86-2.84 TL baz\u0131na oturabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>IMF B\u00dcY\u00dcME TAHM\u0130N\u0130N\u0130 Y\u00dcKSELTT\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Her y\u0131l\u0131n ilkbahar ve sonbahar\u0131nda, geleneksel D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131-IMF toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019nu a\u00e7\u0131klayan Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF), bu defa T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini i\u00e7in hayli c\u00f6mert bir revizyon yapt\u0131. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 ilkbahar\u0131nda D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019nda (WEO), 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini y\u00fczde 2.8 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6ren, sonras\u0131nda, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz \u015fubat ay\u0131nda bunu y\u00fczde 3.2\u2019ye y\u00fckselten IMF, son raporunda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2016 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini y\u00fczde 3.2\u2019den y\u00fczde 3.8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015f durumda. IMF, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de 2016 y\u0131lsonu enflasyon beklentisini y\u00fczde 9.8, 2017 beklentisi y\u00fczde 8.8; T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de cari a\u00e7\u0131k\/GSYH oran\u0131 tahminini 2016 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3.6, 2017 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4.1 ve 2015\u2019te 10.2 olan i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ile ilgili tahminini de 2016 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 10.8, 2017 i\u00e7in de y\u00fczde 10.5 olarak payla\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. IMF, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2017 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini ise y\u00fczde 3.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 3.4\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Raporda, jeopolitik belirsizlik, zay\u0131flayan kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve d\u0131\u015f talebe ra\u011fmen, asgari \u00fccretteki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n i\u00e7 talebi canland\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 vurgulanm\u0131\u015f.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Uluslararas\u0131 Finans Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (IIF) raporuna g\u00f6re, geli\u015fen piyasalarda b\u00fcy\u00fcme Martta 0.5 puan h\u0131zland\u0131. Kurulu\u015fun verilerine g\u00f6re, Mart ay\u0131 itibar\u0131yla geli\u015fen piyasalarda reel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 0.5 puan artarak y\u00fczde 3.3 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve 8 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeylerine geldi. Raporda 2016 y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 3.9 olarak belirtildi. ABD\u2019nin d\u00fcnya me\u015fhur finans kurumu BOFA Merrill Lynch ise T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini art\u0131rd\u0131. Kurulu\u015fun T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 2016 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 3.5\u2019ten y\u00fczde 3.7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131. Banka, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n GSYH\u2019ya oran\u0131 beklentisini de y\u00fczde 5.4\u2019ten y\u00fczde 4.7\u2019ye \u00e7ekti. Y\u0131lsonu dolar TL tahminini de3.10 TL\u2019den 3.01 TL\u2019ye indirildi.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"faiz-indirimi-ve-buyume","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Faiz indirimi ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":124,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":13683,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":13584,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Faiz indirimi ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6revini Do\u00e7. Dr. Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131\u2019dan \u00fcstlenen Murat \u00c7etinkaya, ilk kez Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019na ba\u015fkanl\u0131k etti. Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f man\u015fet enflasyonun, ge\u00e7en y\u0131lsonu, 2016\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131 itibariyle, y\u00fczde 9\u2019lar\u0131n \u00fczerindeyken, nisan ay\u0131 sonunda, y\u00fczde 7\u2019nin bile alt\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi bir beklentiye i\u015faret etmesi, 20 Nisan\u2019da PPK\u2019dan \u00e7\u0131kabilecek faiz koridoru \u00fcst band\u0131 indirim beklentisini en az 25, \u00e7o\u011funlukla 50 ile 75 baz puan aras\u0131nda bir aral\u0131\u011fa ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Nitekim faiz koridoru \u00fcst band\u0131 50 baz puan indirildi. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Mart ay\u0131ndaki PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131ndaki 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi sonras\u0131nda, bu ikinci indirim karar\u0131yla, T\u00fcrk ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin mevcut ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n izin verebildi\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcdeki faiz indirim ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn tamamlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtenler de var. Yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n, yurt i\u00e7i piyasada yat\u0131r\u0131m yapt\u0131klar\u0131 hisse senedi ve tahvillerimizden 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda 9 milyar dolara yak\u0131n \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131klar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz \u015fubat ay\u0131ndaki 1 milyar 351 milyon dolarl\u0131k ve mart ay\u0131ndaki 1 milyar 690 milyon dolarl\u0131k giri\u015f, TL\u2019deki de\u011ferlenmeyi izah ediyor. Bununla birlikte, 1-8 Nisan aras\u0131, 126 milyon dolar hisse senedine giri\u015fi s\u00fcrd\u00fcren yabanc\u0131lar, 32 milyon dolar tahvillerden, 181 milyon dolar da repodan \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015flar.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu hafta,ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (FED) A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi, k\u00fcresel piyasalar ABD verilerini dikkatle takip ederken, mevcut k\u00fcresel ortam\u0131n, geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilere sermaye giri\u015finin, TCMB PPK\u2019n\u0131n son indirim karar\u0131n\u0131 hayli destekleyici oldu\u011fu vurgulan\u0131yor. Mevcut yorumlar, TCMB PPK\u2019n\u0131n 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir indiriminin dolar-TL kuru \u00fczerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir etkiye sebep olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bu noktada, 2.83 TL\u2019nin alt\u0131nda da i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne \u015fahit oldu\u011fumuz dolar-TL kurunun, bu karar \u00f6ncesinde zaten 2.86 TL civar\u0131na oturdu\u011funu; dolar-TL kurunun 2.86-2.84 TL baz\u0131na oturabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>IMF B\u00dcY\u00dcME TAHM\u0130N\u0130N\u0130 Y\u00dcKSELTT\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Her y\u0131l\u0131n ilkbahar ve sonbahar\u0131nda, geleneksel D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131-IMF toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019nu a\u00e7\u0131klayan Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF), bu defa T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini i\u00e7in hayli c\u00f6mert bir revizyon yapt\u0131. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 ilkbahar\u0131nda D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019nda (WEO), 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini y\u00fczde 2.8 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6ren, sonras\u0131nda, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz \u015fubat ay\u0131nda bunu y\u00fczde 3.2\u2019ye y\u00fckselten IMF, son raporunda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2016 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini y\u00fczde 3.2\u2019den y\u00fczde 3.8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015f durumda. IMF, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de 2016 y\u0131lsonu enflasyon beklentisini y\u00fczde 9.8, 2017 beklentisi y\u00fczde 8.8; T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de cari a\u00e7\u0131k\/GSYH oran\u0131 tahminini 2016 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3.6, 2017 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4.1 ve 2015\u2019te 10.2 olan i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ile ilgili tahminini de 2016 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 10.8, 2017 i\u00e7in de y\u00fczde 10.5 olarak payla\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. IMF, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2017 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini ise y\u00fczde 3.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 3.4\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Raporda, jeopolitik belirsizlik, zay\u0131flayan kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve d\u0131\u015f talebe ra\u011fmen, asgari \u00fccretteki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n i\u00e7 talebi canland\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 vurgulanm\u0131\u015f.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Uluslararas\u0131 Finans Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (IIF) raporuna g\u00f6re, geli\u015fen piyasalarda b\u00fcy\u00fcme Martta 0.5 puan h\u0131zland\u0131. Kurulu\u015fun verilerine g\u00f6re, Mart ay\u0131 itibar\u0131yla geli\u015fen piyasalarda reel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 0.5 puan artarak y\u00fczde 3.3 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve 8 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeylerine geldi. Raporda 2016 y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 3.9 olarak belirtildi. ABD\u2019nin d\u00fcnya me\u015fhur finans kurumu BOFA Merrill Lynch ise T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini art\u0131rd\u0131. Kurulu\u015fun T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 2016 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 3.5\u2019ten y\u00fczde 3.7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131. Banka, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n GSYH\u2019ya oran\u0131 beklentisini de y\u00fczde 5.4\u2019ten y\u00fczde 4.7\u2019ye \u00e7ekti. Y\u0131lsonu dolar TL tahminini de3.10 TL\u2019den 3.01 TL\u2019ye indirildi.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"faiz-indirimi-ve-buyume","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Faiz indirimi ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":124,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}