{"status":true,"post":{"id":23907,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:34:23","created_at":"2020-12-24T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:34:23.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":23907,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u2018Faiz arbitrajc\u0131lar\u0131\u2019 i\u00e7in mutlu g\u00fcn","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Ba\u015ftan belirteyim; TCMB\u2019nin son faiz art\u0131\u015f karar\u0131na kat\u0131lm\u0131yorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, s\u00f6z konusu faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131 can\u0131 g\u00f6n\u00fclden talep eden, ka\u00e7 haftad\u0131r bu konuda \u2018piyasa beklentisi\u2019 olu\u015fturan finans piyasas\u0131 profesyonelleri ve finans kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomistlerinin esas pe\u015flerinde ko\u015ftuklar\u0131 \u2018faiz arbitraj\u0131\u2019 m\u0131, merak ediyorum. Konuyu a\u00e7ay\u0131m. \u2018Faiz arbitraj\u0131\u2019, birbiriyle farkl\u0131 faiz d\u00fczeyinde olan iki ekonomi aras\u0131nda, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz seviyesindeki \u00fclkenin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla faiz getirisi elde etmek ad\u0131na faizi seviyesi daha y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeydeki ekonomiye y\u00f6nelmesidir. Japon ev han\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131llarca \u2018carry trade\u2019, yani tasarruflar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek faizli TL yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirdiklerini hep dinledik, durduk.<\/span><\/p>

2008 k\u00fcresel finans krizi, krizden etkilenen ABD ve Avrupa ekonomilerinde ciddi boyutlarda bir faiz indirimini, ABD (Fed) ve AB (ECB) merkez bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7in hayli geni\u015f bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z para bas\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ve bilan\u00e7o geni\u015flemesini zorunlu k\u0131ld\u0131. Buna, Japonya\u2019y\u0131 da ekledi\u011fimizde, trilyonlarca dolar\u0131 bulan parasal geni\u015fleme ve bu paran\u0131n \u2018s\u0131f\u0131r\u2019 faizle piyasaya sunulmas\u0131, faiz hadleri daha y\u00fcksek ekonomilerden \u2018faiz arbitraj\u0131\u2019 ile hayli y\u00fcksek \u2018reel faiz\u2019 geliri elde edilmesini sa\u011flayacak bir spek\u00fclasyon ortam\u0131n\u0131 adeta kam\u00e7\u0131lad\u0131. \u00d6yle ki, negatif faiz getirisi olan tahviller dahil d\u00fcnyada negatif getirisi olan yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131na park etmi\u015f parasal b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck <\/span>
19 trilyon dolara dayanm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen t\u00fcm uluslararas\u0131 finans kurumlar\u0131 ve onlar\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki muhataplar\u0131, m\u00fc\u015fterileri i\u00e7in deli gibi y\u00fcksek reel getirisi olan yat\u0131r\u0131m ortam\u0131 ar\u0131yor. \u015eimdi, bu imkan\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye piyasas\u0131nda bulmu\u015f durumdalar. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, enflasyon beklentilerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, y\u00fczde 16-19 band\u0131na y\u00fckselmi\u015f olan TL cinsinden yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n getirisi, uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara 2 ile 4 puan aras\u0131nda reel faiz imkan\u0131 veriyor. Oysa, ayn\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n, spek\u00fclat\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn paras\u0131 \u015fu anda \u2018s\u0131f\u0131r\u2019a yak\u0131n d\u00fczeyde de\u011ferleniyor. Yani, enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 \u2018s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f para politikas\u0131\u2019 tercihinin sundu\u011fu y\u00fczde 2-4 d\u00fczeyindeki \u2018faiz arbitrajc\u0131lar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 hayli mutlu etmi\u015f durumday\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>

Madalyonun \u00f6b\u00fcr y\u00fcz\u00fcnde ise k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n birinci dalgas\u0131 t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyay\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen ekonomileri reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc ayakta tutmak i\u00e7in ne yap\u0131yor ise bir kuru\u015f TCMB\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z para bast\u0131rtmadan, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemini reel sekt\u00f6re kredi kulland\u0131rmaya \u00f6zendirerek ve kredi maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek do\u011fru ad\u0131mlar att\u0131k. Bug\u00fcn, para politikas\u0131 faizinin y\u00fckselmesi, bir cephede pandeminin zorlu d\u00f6neminde reel sekt\u00f6re uygun ko\u015fullarda kredi kulland\u0131rm\u0131\u015f bankalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n kaynak maliyetinin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fini ve k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkileyecek.<\/span><\/p>

Di\u011fer cephede ise pandeminin ikinci dalgas\u0131 i\u00e7in zaten bedel \u00f6demekte olan reel sekt\u00f6r a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, yeniden krediye ihtiya\u00e7 duymas\u0131 halinde kullanmaya cesaret edemeyece\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kredi maliyetleri artm\u0131\u015f olacak. \u2018Mavi kan\u2019 neoliberal ortodoks ekonomistlerin \u2018enflasyonu \u00f6nceliklendirme\u2019 tercihleri, \u00fcretim, istihdam, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve ihracata y\u00f6nelik kay\u0131ts\u0131zl\u0131klar\u0131 beni her zaman \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtm\u0131\u015f ve endi\u015felendirmi\u015ftir. Umar\u0131m, ekonomiyi bu derece \u2018so\u011futma\u2019n\u0131n sebep olaca\u011f\u0131 sosyo-ekonomik sonu\u00e7lara y\u00f6nelik ek tedbirler de e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak devrede olur.<\/span><\/p>

\u015e\u0130MD\u0130, \u2018B\u0130RLE\u015eME\u2019 VE \u2018SATIN ALMA\u2019 ZAMANI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcm\u00fcz, uzunca bir s\u00fcredir g\u00fcndeminde olmas\u0131 gereken bir konuyu beyninin gerilerine iterek, g\u00f6rmemezlikten geliyor. Bu konu, \u015firket birle\u015fme ve sat\u0131n almalar\u0131. 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n hayli sert \u2018k\u00fcresel rekabet\u2019 ortam\u0131, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n her yerinde \u015firketleri, firmalar\u0131 kapasitelerini daha da b\u00fcy\u00fctmeye; yeni beceriler, yeni uzmanla\u015fma alanlar\u0131yla hareket kabiliyeti kazand\u0131rmaya; bilhassa \u2018\u00f6l\u00e7ek ekonomisi\u2019nin avantajlar\u0131ndan yararlanmaya zorluyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, giderek zorla\u015fan rekabet \u015fartlar\u0131nda, do\u011fru alana, do\u011fru teknoloji se\u00e7imiyle yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmak, \u015firketin y\u00f6netim stratejileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan karar alma s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini zenginle\u015ftirmenin en etkili metotlar\u0131ndan birini, birle\u015fme ve sat\u0131n alma yoluyla \u015firketlerin \u2018g\u00fcc\u00fc\u2019n\u00fc bir araya getirmek olu\u015fturuyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nem, konvansiyonel ticaret ve e-ticaret alan\u0131nda, bilhassa perakende ve toptan ticaret alan\u0131ndaki \u015firketlerin de, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte a\u011f\u0131rlama end\u00fcstrisinin \u00f6nde gelen otel, restoran ve h\u0131zl\u0131 yeme-paket servis \u015firketlerinin de lojistik end\u00fcstrisinin \u00f6nemli oyuncular\u0131n\u0131n da birle\u015fme ve sat\u0131n almalara yo\u011fun a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verecekleri bir d\u00f6neme i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"faiz-arbitrajcilari-icin-mutlu-gun","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u2018Faiz arbitrajc\u0131lar\u0131\u2019 i\u00e7in mutlu g\u00fcn","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1081,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":24006,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":23907,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u2018Faiz arbitrajc\u0131lar\u0131\u2019 i\u00e7in mutlu g\u00fcn","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Ba\u015ftan belirteyim; TCMB\u2019nin son faiz art\u0131\u015f karar\u0131na kat\u0131lm\u0131yorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, s\u00f6z konusu faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131 can\u0131 g\u00f6n\u00fclden talep eden, ka\u00e7 haftad\u0131r bu konuda \u2018piyasa beklentisi\u2019 olu\u015fturan finans piyasas\u0131 profesyonelleri ve finans kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomistlerinin esas pe\u015flerinde ko\u015ftuklar\u0131 \u2018faiz arbitraj\u0131\u2019 m\u0131, merak ediyorum. Konuyu a\u00e7ay\u0131m. \u2018Faiz arbitraj\u0131\u2019, birbiriyle farkl\u0131 faiz d\u00fczeyinde olan iki ekonomi aras\u0131nda, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz seviyesindeki \u00fclkenin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla faiz getirisi elde etmek ad\u0131na faizi seviyesi daha y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeydeki ekonomiye y\u00f6nelmesidir. Japon ev han\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131llarca \u2018carry trade\u2019, yani tasarruflar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek faizli TL yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirdiklerini hep dinledik, durduk.<\/span><\/p>

2008 k\u00fcresel finans krizi, krizden etkilenen ABD ve Avrupa ekonomilerinde ciddi boyutlarda bir faiz indirimini, ABD (Fed) ve AB (ECB) merkez bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7in hayli geni\u015f bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z para bas\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ve bilan\u00e7o geni\u015flemesini zorunlu k\u0131ld\u0131. Buna, Japonya\u2019y\u0131 da ekledi\u011fimizde, trilyonlarca dolar\u0131 bulan parasal geni\u015fleme ve bu paran\u0131n \u2018s\u0131f\u0131r\u2019 faizle piyasaya sunulmas\u0131, faiz hadleri daha y\u00fcksek ekonomilerden \u2018faiz arbitraj\u0131\u2019 ile hayli y\u00fcksek \u2018reel faiz\u2019 geliri elde edilmesini sa\u011flayacak bir spek\u00fclasyon ortam\u0131n\u0131 adeta kam\u00e7\u0131lad\u0131. \u00d6yle ki, negatif faiz getirisi olan tahviller dahil d\u00fcnyada negatif getirisi olan yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131na park etmi\u015f parasal b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck <\/span>
19 trilyon dolara dayanm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen t\u00fcm uluslararas\u0131 finans kurumlar\u0131 ve onlar\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki muhataplar\u0131, m\u00fc\u015fterileri i\u00e7in deli gibi y\u00fcksek reel getirisi olan yat\u0131r\u0131m ortam\u0131 ar\u0131yor. \u015eimdi, bu imkan\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye piyasas\u0131nda bulmu\u015f durumdalar. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, enflasyon beklentilerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, y\u00fczde 16-19 band\u0131na y\u00fckselmi\u015f olan TL cinsinden yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n getirisi, uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara 2 ile 4 puan aras\u0131nda reel faiz imkan\u0131 veriyor. Oysa, ayn\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n, spek\u00fclat\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn paras\u0131 \u015fu anda \u2018s\u0131f\u0131r\u2019a yak\u0131n d\u00fczeyde de\u011ferleniyor. Yani, enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 \u2018s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f para politikas\u0131\u2019 tercihinin sundu\u011fu y\u00fczde 2-4 d\u00fczeyindeki \u2018faiz arbitrajc\u0131lar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 hayli mutlu etmi\u015f durumday\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>

Madalyonun \u00f6b\u00fcr y\u00fcz\u00fcnde ise k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n birinci dalgas\u0131 t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyay\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen ekonomileri reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc ayakta tutmak i\u00e7in ne yap\u0131yor ise bir kuru\u015f TCMB\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z para bast\u0131rtmadan, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemini reel sekt\u00f6re kredi kulland\u0131rmaya \u00f6zendirerek ve kredi maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek do\u011fru ad\u0131mlar att\u0131k. Bug\u00fcn, para politikas\u0131 faizinin y\u00fckselmesi, bir cephede pandeminin zorlu d\u00f6neminde reel sekt\u00f6re uygun ko\u015fullarda kredi kulland\u0131rm\u0131\u015f bankalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n kaynak maliyetinin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fini ve k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkileyecek.<\/span><\/p>

Di\u011fer cephede ise pandeminin ikinci dalgas\u0131 i\u00e7in zaten bedel \u00f6demekte olan reel sekt\u00f6r a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, yeniden krediye ihtiya\u00e7 duymas\u0131 halinde kullanmaya cesaret edemeyece\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kredi maliyetleri artm\u0131\u015f olacak. \u2018Mavi kan\u2019 neoliberal ortodoks ekonomistlerin \u2018enflasyonu \u00f6nceliklendirme\u2019 tercihleri, \u00fcretim, istihdam, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve ihracata y\u00f6nelik kay\u0131ts\u0131zl\u0131klar\u0131 beni her zaman \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtm\u0131\u015f ve endi\u015felendirmi\u015ftir. Umar\u0131m, ekonomiyi bu derece \u2018so\u011futma\u2019n\u0131n sebep olaca\u011f\u0131 sosyo-ekonomik sonu\u00e7lara y\u00f6nelik ek tedbirler de e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak devrede olur.<\/span><\/p>

\u015e\u0130MD\u0130, \u2018B\u0130RLE\u015eME\u2019 VE \u2018SATIN ALMA\u2019 ZAMANI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcm\u00fcz, uzunca bir s\u00fcredir g\u00fcndeminde olmas\u0131 gereken bir konuyu beyninin gerilerine iterek, g\u00f6rmemezlikten geliyor. Bu konu, \u015firket birle\u015fme ve sat\u0131n almalar\u0131. 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n hayli sert \u2018k\u00fcresel rekabet\u2019 ortam\u0131, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n her yerinde \u015firketleri, firmalar\u0131 kapasitelerini daha da b\u00fcy\u00fctmeye; yeni beceriler, yeni uzmanla\u015fma alanlar\u0131yla hareket kabiliyeti kazand\u0131rmaya; bilhassa \u2018\u00f6l\u00e7ek ekonomisi\u2019nin avantajlar\u0131ndan yararlanmaya zorluyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, giderek zorla\u015fan rekabet \u015fartlar\u0131nda, do\u011fru alana, do\u011fru teknoloji se\u00e7imiyle yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmak, \u015firketin y\u00f6netim stratejileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan karar alma s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini zenginle\u015ftirmenin en etkili metotlar\u0131ndan birini, birle\u015fme ve sat\u0131n alma yoluyla \u015firketlerin \u2018g\u00fcc\u00fc\u2019n\u00fc bir araya getirmek olu\u015fturuyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nem, konvansiyonel ticaret ve e-ticaret alan\u0131nda, bilhassa perakende ve toptan ticaret alan\u0131ndaki \u015firketlerin de, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte a\u011f\u0131rlama end\u00fcstrisinin \u00f6nde gelen otel, restoran ve h\u0131zl\u0131 yeme-paket servis \u015firketlerinin de lojistik end\u00fcstrisinin \u00f6nemli oyuncular\u0131n\u0131n da birle\u015fme ve sat\u0131n almalara yo\u011fun a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verecekleri bir d\u00f6neme i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"faiz-arbitrajcilari-icin-mutlu-gun","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u2018Faiz arbitrajc\u0131lar\u0131\u2019 i\u00e7in mutlu g\u00fcn","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1081,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}