{"status":true,"post":{"id":30465,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 16:32:45","created_at":"2022-01-06T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T13:32:45.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":30465,"is_featured":0,"title":"Enflasyon nereye gidiyor?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

H\u0130KMET BAYDAR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

De\u011ferli okurlar\u0131m\u0131z, d\u00f6nem d\u00f6nem yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z yaz\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131zda enflasyon konusunda dikkatlerinizi \u00e7ekmi\u015ftik. En son 26 Kas\u0131m 2021 tarihli \u2018kur oynakl\u0131klar\u0131 ve ekonomi ili\u015fkisi\u2019 ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 yaz\u0131m\u0131zda, kurlar nedeniyle ithal girdi maliyetlerinin enflasyona sebep oldu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmi\u015ftik. <\/span>
<\/span>
\u015eimdi yava\u015f yava\u015f yans\u0131malar\u0131 g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flad\u0131k. 3 Ocak 2022 g\u00fcn\u00fc T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan b\u00fcltene g\u00f6re; 2021 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 13.58, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n aral\u0131k ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 36.08 ve 12 ayl\u0131k ortalamalara g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 19.60 art\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f durumda.<\/span>
<\/span>
Kas\u0131m 2021\u2019de enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 21.31 oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlarsak, ne kadar ciddi bir z\u0131plama oldu\u011funu da g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz. <\/span>
<\/span>
Kurlardaki ciddi oynakl\u0131k ve \u00fcr\u00fcn fiyatlama sorunlar\u0131 ile global fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bir araya geldi\u011finde b\u00f6yle sonu\u00e7lara yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. <\/span>
<\/span>
GLOBAL F\u0130YAT ARTI\u015eLARI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Peki, enflasyon devam eder mi?<\/span>
<\/span>
Bunun i\u00e7in \u00dcFE rakam\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. T\u00dcFE ile ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn yay\u0131mlanan yurt i\u00e7i fiyat endeksi verilerine g\u00f6re, Kas\u0131m 2021\u2019de y\u00fczde 54.62 olan y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00fcretici fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131, aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 79.89 seviyelerine kadar gelmi\u015f durumda. Perakende fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde pay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek, enflasyonun bir miktar daha y\u00fckselme potansiyelinin oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. <\/span>
<\/span>
Enflasyonda kur etkisinin oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek, kurda de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmasa bile global fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 nedeniyle enflasyonist bask\u0131n\u0131n devam edebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. <\/span>
<\/span>
Bu arada global anlamda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 nedeniyle bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerin son 10 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek enflasyon verileriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da unutmamam\u0131z laz\u0131m. Bu \u00fclkeler enflasyonu dizginlemek i\u00e7in faiz silah\u0131na sar\u0131l\u0131rlarsa d\u0131\u015f talepte ciddi durgunlukla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z unutulmamal\u0131. Kald\u0131 ki, bu durumda geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere fon giri\u015fi de yava\u015flayabilir. O zaman kolay kredi bulmak da zorla\u015fabilir. Alternatif getiri artt\u0131k\u00e7a para o y\u00f6ne do\u011fru kayaca\u011f\u0131ndan, bankalar mevduat portf\u00f6y\u00fcn\u00fc tutabilmek i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmak durumunda bile kalabilirler. \u015eunu unutmayal\u0131m: Faiz indirimleri kayna\u011fa kolay ula\u015f\u0131m\u0131 sa\u011flamaz. Aksine gittik\u00e7e zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. <\/span>
<\/span>
\u00dcRET\u0130M VE KAPAS\u0130TE ARTMALI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de sabit geliri olanlara yap\u0131lan \u00fccret zamlar\u0131, y\u00fczde 43.80 y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u0131da enflasyonu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yetersizdir. Ancak ilk aylarda i\u00e7 piyasada bir miktar rahatlama sa\u011flayabilir. \u015eubat ay\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda al\u0131nacak zaml\u0131 maa\u015flarla i\u00e7 piyasa bir miktar nefes alabilir. <\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE makas\u0131 daralmadan, piyasa kurda istikrara ikna olmadan, d\u0131\u015f talep dengeye oturmadan enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklemek zor. \u015eimdilik \u00fcretim ve kapasite art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z. Arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde fiyatlarda istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flamak o kadar kolay olmayabilir.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"enflasyon-nereye-gidiyor","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Enflasyon nereye gidiyor?","meta_description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1140,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":30564,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":30465,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Enflasyon nereye gidiyor?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

H\u0130KMET BAYDAR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

De\u011ferli okurlar\u0131m\u0131z, d\u00f6nem d\u00f6nem yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z yaz\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131zda enflasyon konusunda dikkatlerinizi \u00e7ekmi\u015ftik. En son 26 Kas\u0131m 2021 tarihli \u2018kur oynakl\u0131klar\u0131 ve ekonomi ili\u015fkisi\u2019 ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 yaz\u0131m\u0131zda, kurlar nedeniyle ithal girdi maliyetlerinin enflasyona sebep oldu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmi\u015ftik. <\/span>
<\/span>
\u015eimdi yava\u015f yava\u015f yans\u0131malar\u0131 g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flad\u0131k. 3 Ocak 2022 g\u00fcn\u00fc T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan b\u00fcltene g\u00f6re; 2021 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 13.58, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n aral\u0131k ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 36.08 ve 12 ayl\u0131k ortalamalara g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 19.60 art\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f durumda.<\/span>
<\/span>
Kas\u0131m 2021\u2019de enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 21.31 oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlarsak, ne kadar ciddi bir z\u0131plama oldu\u011funu da g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz. <\/span>
<\/span>
Kurlardaki ciddi oynakl\u0131k ve \u00fcr\u00fcn fiyatlama sorunlar\u0131 ile global fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bir araya geldi\u011finde b\u00f6yle sonu\u00e7lara yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. <\/span>
<\/span>
GLOBAL F\u0130YAT ARTI\u015eLARI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Peki, enflasyon devam eder mi?<\/span>
<\/span>
Bunun i\u00e7in \u00dcFE rakam\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. T\u00dcFE ile ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn yay\u0131mlanan yurt i\u00e7i fiyat endeksi verilerine g\u00f6re, Kas\u0131m 2021\u2019de y\u00fczde 54.62 olan y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00fcretici fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131, aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 79.89 seviyelerine kadar gelmi\u015f durumda. Perakende fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde pay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek, enflasyonun bir miktar daha y\u00fckselme potansiyelinin oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. <\/span>
<\/span>
Enflasyonda kur etkisinin oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek, kurda de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmasa bile global fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 nedeniyle enflasyonist bask\u0131n\u0131n devam edebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. <\/span>
<\/span>
Bu arada global anlamda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 nedeniyle bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerin son 10 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek enflasyon verileriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da unutmamam\u0131z laz\u0131m. Bu \u00fclkeler enflasyonu dizginlemek i\u00e7in faiz silah\u0131na sar\u0131l\u0131rlarsa d\u0131\u015f talepte ciddi durgunlukla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z unutulmamal\u0131. Kald\u0131 ki, bu durumda geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere fon giri\u015fi de yava\u015flayabilir. O zaman kolay kredi bulmak da zorla\u015fabilir. Alternatif getiri artt\u0131k\u00e7a para o y\u00f6ne do\u011fru kayaca\u011f\u0131ndan, bankalar mevduat portf\u00f6y\u00fcn\u00fc tutabilmek i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmak durumunda bile kalabilirler. \u015eunu unutmayal\u0131m: Faiz indirimleri kayna\u011fa kolay ula\u015f\u0131m\u0131 sa\u011flamaz. Aksine gittik\u00e7e zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. <\/span>
<\/span>
\u00dcRET\u0130M VE KAPAS\u0130TE ARTMALI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de sabit geliri olanlara yap\u0131lan \u00fccret zamlar\u0131, y\u00fczde 43.80 y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u0131da enflasyonu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yetersizdir. Ancak ilk aylarda i\u00e7 piyasada bir miktar rahatlama sa\u011flayabilir. \u015eubat ay\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda al\u0131nacak zaml\u0131 maa\u015flarla i\u00e7 piyasa bir miktar nefes alabilir. <\/span>
<\/span>
T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE makas\u0131 daralmadan, piyasa kurda istikrara ikna olmadan, d\u0131\u015f talep dengeye oturmadan enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklemek zor. \u015eimdilik \u00fcretim ve kapasite art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z. Arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde fiyatlarda istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flamak o kadar kolay olmayabilir.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"enflasyon-nereye-gidiyor","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Enflasyon nereye gidiyor?","meta_description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1140,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}