{"status":true,"post":{"id":28542,"user_id":1,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 15:47:09","created_at":"2021-09-23T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T12:47:09.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":28542,"is_featured":0,"title":"Enerjide zor bir k\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rlan\u0131n","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

HAKAN G\u00dcLDA\u011e<\/strong><\/span>
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Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 son bir y\u0131lda kelimenin tam anlam\u0131yla ald\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 gitti. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 Brent petrol\u00fcn varili bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce 40 dolar seviyesindeydi. Y\u00fczde 100\u2019e yak\u0131n bir art\u0131\u015fla 75 dolar seviyesini a\u015ft\u0131. Ayn\u0131 art\u0131\u015f hemen hemen Bat\u0131 Teksas petrol\u00fc i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli. <\/span><\/p>

Do\u011falgaz vadeli kontratlar\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fme ise petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ok a\u015ft\u0131. Do\u011falgaz adeta petrolle bir ara a\u00e7\u0131lan fiyat fark\u0131n\u0131 kapatmak i\u00e7in atak \u00fczerine atak yap\u0131yor. Son bir y\u0131ldaki art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 170\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131. <\/span>
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SADECE PETROL VE DO\u011eALGAZ MI? <\/span>
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Bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce tonu yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 dolar d\u00fczeyinde bulunan buhar k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 250\u2019lik art\u0131\u015fla 180 dolar d\u00fczeyine t\u0131rmand\u0131. Herkes \u2018\u00e7evre kirlili\u011fi\u2019, \u2018iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi\u2019, \u2018ye\u015fil mutabakat\u2019 filan derken, herkesin ka\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen k\u00f6m\u00fcr, son bir y\u0131lda fiyat\u0131 en fazla artan emtia aras\u0131na yerle\u015fti. <\/span>
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Talep daha da artacak...<\/span>
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Afganistan\u2019dan Rusya\u2019ya, hatta \u00c7in\u2019e uzanan pek \u00e7ok jeopolitik gerek\u00e7e de dahil olmak \u00fczere, enerjideki fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fclen nedenler \u00e7e\u015fitli. Ancak en \u00f6nemli nedenin arz ve talep aras\u0131ndaki dengesizlik oldu\u011fu ortada. \u0130\u015fin ekonomi politik y\u00f6n\u00fc de var tabii... Petrol \u0130hra\u00e7 Eden \u00dclkeler \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (OPEC) \u00fcyeleri Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da oluruyla petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131da tutmak istiyor. Sonu\u00e7ta onlar\u0131n i\u015fine de fiyatlar\u0131n yukar\u0131da tutulmas\u0131 geliyor. B\u00fct\u00e7elerini d\u00fczeltiyorlar. <\/span>
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B\u00f6ylece ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l salg\u0131n nedeniyle gerileyen enerji fiyatlar\u0131, kapanmalar\u0131n hafiflemesiyle birlikte y\u00fckseldi. \u00d6zellikle kendini Bat\u0131\u2019ya g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlayan Asya\u2019dan gelen talep nedeniyle h\u0131zla artarak son y\u0131llar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine ula\u015ft\u0131. <\/span>
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Enerji piyasas\u0131 uzmanlar\u0131 ve de bu piyasay\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyen bankalar\u0131n ara\u015ft\u0131rma birimleri, enerji talebinin bu y\u0131l artmaya devam etmesini bekliyor. 2022\u2019de ise talebin daha da y\u00fckselmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. <\/span>
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Fiyatlar da y\u00fckselecek...<\/span>
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Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bir s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek seyredece\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir. Hele ki, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 baz\u0131nda...<\/span>
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Zira dolar baz\u0131nda y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da eklememiz gerekiyor. B\u00f6ylece, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 baz\u0131nda \u00e7ok daha keskin art\u0131\u015flar kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. TL olarak bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, d\u00fcnyada enerji fiyatlar\u0131 son bir y\u0131lda petrolde y\u00fczde 95, do\u011falgazda y\u00fczde 200 ve buhar k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 280 y\u00fckseldi. <\/span>
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Sekt\u00f6r kaynaklar\u0131na dayand\u0131r\u0131lan haberlere g\u00f6re, elektrik ve do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131nda artan maliyetlerden \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc ekim ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 15\u2019e varan oranda art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor. <\/span>
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Y\u0131l sonuna kadar art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n y\u00fczde 30 civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyen uzmanlar \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu olu\u015fturuyor. <\/span>
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Uzmanlara g\u00f6re, b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle \u00f6ncelikle elektrik fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselecek. Veriler, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 7 ay\u0131nda t\u00fcketti\u011fi elektri\u011fin neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 do\u011falgaz ve ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr kullanarak \u00fcretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n elektrik faturalar\u0131na yans\u0131mamas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclemez. <\/span>
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\u00d6te yandan, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de do\u011falgaz\u0131n y\u00fczde 93\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc ithal eden Bota\u015f\u2019\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde izledi\u011fi strateji ile m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca do\u011falgaz\u0131 ucuza verme \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131n da sonuna yakla\u015f\u0131yor olabiliriz. Nitekim kurulu\u015fun \u00f6nceki Do\u011fal Gaz Dairesi Ba\u015fkanlar\u0131ndan Arif Akt\u00fcrk, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u2018cep yakaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u2019 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Akt\u00fcrk\u2019e g\u00f6re, k\u0131\u015f\u0131n gelmesi ile spot al\u0131mlar artacak ve spot fiyatlar d\u00fcnyaya entegre oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ister istemez y\u00fcksek oranda do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131t\u0131lacak. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131 2022 ba\u015f\u0131na kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 30 zam g\u00f6recek. <\/span>
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\u00dcretimi etkileyecek... <\/span>
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T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son geli\u015fmelerden ciddi \u015fekilde etkilenece\u011fi a\u015fikar. Demir-\u00e7elikten \u00e7imentoya, g\u0131dadan ula\u015ft\u0131rmaya kadar...<\/span>
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Sekt\u00f6r temsilcileri, \u201cUcuz enerjinin hayat\u0131m\u0131zda olmayaca\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme girdi\u011fimizi g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz\u201d diyerek, bu ger\u00e7e\u011fi net bir \u015fekilde dile getiriyor. Sanayiciler, \u00f6zellikle do\u011falgaz\u0131n maliyette b\u00fcy\u00fck pay sahibi oldu\u011fu sekt\u00f6rlerde \u00f6zel bir fiyat uygulamas\u0131 talep ediyor. \u00c7imentocular, enerjideki fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n maliyetlerini y\u00fczde 100 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtip, \u201cKDV indirimi gibi ilave bir destek olmazsa art\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini\u201d kaydediyor. <\/span>
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\u00d6te yandan, T\u00fcrkiye y\u00fczde 80\u2019e varan oranda do\u011falgaz ve ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr ile \u0131s\u0131n\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, sanayici ve \u00fcreticilerin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ve vatanda\u015f\u0131n yak\u0131t faturalar\u0131n\u0131n da b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artmas\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/span>
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***<\/span>
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Tablo b\u00f6yle...<\/span>
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Y\u00fckselen ithalat faturas\u0131, cari a\u00e7\u0131k, artan d\u00f6viz kuru ve enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla birlikte ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda zor bir k\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlanmaktan ba\u015fka \u00e7are yok. <\/span>
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\u201cHaz\u0131rlanal\u0131m da ne yapal\u0131m\u201d derseniz, onu da m\u00fcsaadenizle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki Eko-Mercek\u2019lerde ele alal\u0131m. <\/span>
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D\u00dcNYANIN DA T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019N\u0130N DE ELEKTR\u0130K TALEB\u0130 B\u00dcY\u00dcYOR<\/strong><\/span>
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Elektrik talebi, son 10 y\u0131l\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine do\u011fru ilerliyor. Muhtemelen bu y\u0131l talebin y\u00fczde 4.5 veya farkl\u0131 bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcyle s\u00f6ylersek 1000 TWh\u2019nin \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. <\/span>
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Bu miktar, 2020\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn neredeyse be\u015f kat\u0131. Ve elektri\u011fin nihai enerji talebindeki pay\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin elektrik t\u00fcketiminin bu y\u0131l d\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n biraz \u00fczerinde y\u00fczde 5 d\u00fczeyinde artaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u015eu ana kadarki geli\u015fmeler de bu y\u00f6nde...<\/span>
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\u00d6ncelikle, bu geli\u015fmeyi b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri destekliyor. Evet, OECD 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel ekonomide b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 5.7\u2019ye indirdi. Ancak mevcut veriler h\u00e2l\u00e2 k\u00fcresel ekonominin 1950\u2019lerden bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme ya\u015fanacak y\u0131llardan birinde oldu\u011fumuzu destekliyor. <\/span>
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\u0130kinci olarak, OECD T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini y\u00fckseltti. Tahminini y\u00fczde 8.4 olarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti. Kald\u0131 ki, yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z hesaplamalar baz etkisiyle bu oran\u0131n y\u00fczde 10\u2019un \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kma ihtimali de var. <\/span>
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T\u00fcrkiye, \u00fcretmeye ve ihracata devam ediyor. \u00dcretirken ciddi bi\u00e7imde elektrik enerjisi kullan\u0131yoruz. Enerji maliyetleri \u00fczerinde d\u00fcnyadan kaynaklanan geli\u015fmeler, i\u00e7 piyasaya da yans\u0131yor. <\/span>
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Tabii bir de i\u015fin kur boyutu var. Biliyorsunuz Merkez Bankas\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta faiz indirdi. Do\u011fru yapt\u0131, yanl\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak, y\u00fckselen kurlar ister istemez enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 TL baz\u0131nda yukar\u0131ya itiyor. Ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 ne zaman T\u00dcFE\u2019nin alt\u0131nda faiz verse ABD Dolar\u0131 ve Euro\u2019nun art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar, 2010 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana politika faizinin negatif reel faize tekab\u00fcl etti\u011fi \u00fc\u00e7 d\u00f6nemin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnde de, dolar\u0131n TL kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda minimum y\u00fczde 25, maksimum y\u00fczde 38 de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span>
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Bu nedenle, son geli\u015fmelerin \u00fczerine konu\u015ftu\u011fum uzmanlar, elektrik fiyatlar\u0131nda 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 50 art\u0131\u015f beklentisinin olu\u015fma ihtimalinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"enerjide-zor-bir-kisa-hazirlanin","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Enerjide zor bir k\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rlan\u0131n","meta_description":"HAKAN G\u00dcLDA\u011e","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1073,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":1,"name":"HAKAN","surname":"G\u00dcLDA\u011e","email":"uakisik@eronat.com.tr","slug":"hakan-guldag","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600kKPzKvWx8Xpxx9n.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T14:51:32.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":28641,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":28542,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Enerjide zor bir k\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rlan\u0131n","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

HAKAN G\u00dcLDA\u011e<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 son bir y\u0131lda kelimenin tam anlam\u0131yla ald\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 gitti. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 Brent petrol\u00fcn varili bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce 40 dolar seviyesindeydi. Y\u00fczde 100\u2019e yak\u0131n bir art\u0131\u015fla 75 dolar seviyesini a\u015ft\u0131. Ayn\u0131 art\u0131\u015f hemen hemen Bat\u0131 Teksas petrol\u00fc i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli. <\/span><\/p>

Do\u011falgaz vadeli kontratlar\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fme ise petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ok a\u015ft\u0131. Do\u011falgaz adeta petrolle bir ara a\u00e7\u0131lan fiyat fark\u0131n\u0131 kapatmak i\u00e7in atak \u00fczerine atak yap\u0131yor. Son bir y\u0131ldaki art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 170\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131. <\/span>
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SADECE PETROL VE DO\u011eALGAZ MI? <\/span>
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Bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce tonu yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 dolar d\u00fczeyinde bulunan buhar k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 250\u2019lik art\u0131\u015fla 180 dolar d\u00fczeyine t\u0131rmand\u0131. Herkes \u2018\u00e7evre kirlili\u011fi\u2019, \u2018iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi\u2019, \u2018ye\u015fil mutabakat\u2019 filan derken, herkesin ka\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen k\u00f6m\u00fcr, son bir y\u0131lda fiyat\u0131 en fazla artan emtia aras\u0131na yerle\u015fti. <\/span>
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Talep daha da artacak...<\/span>
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Afganistan\u2019dan Rusya\u2019ya, hatta \u00c7in\u2019e uzanan pek \u00e7ok jeopolitik gerek\u00e7e de dahil olmak \u00fczere, enerjideki fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fclen nedenler \u00e7e\u015fitli. Ancak en \u00f6nemli nedenin arz ve talep aras\u0131ndaki dengesizlik oldu\u011fu ortada. \u0130\u015fin ekonomi politik y\u00f6n\u00fc de var tabii... Petrol \u0130hra\u00e7 Eden \u00dclkeler \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (OPEC) \u00fcyeleri Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da oluruyla petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131da tutmak istiyor. Sonu\u00e7ta onlar\u0131n i\u015fine de fiyatlar\u0131n yukar\u0131da tutulmas\u0131 geliyor. B\u00fct\u00e7elerini d\u00fczeltiyorlar. <\/span>
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B\u00f6ylece ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l salg\u0131n nedeniyle gerileyen enerji fiyatlar\u0131, kapanmalar\u0131n hafiflemesiyle birlikte y\u00fckseldi. \u00d6zellikle kendini Bat\u0131\u2019ya g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlayan Asya\u2019dan gelen talep nedeniyle h\u0131zla artarak son y\u0131llar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine ula\u015ft\u0131. <\/span>
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Enerji piyasas\u0131 uzmanlar\u0131 ve de bu piyasay\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyen bankalar\u0131n ara\u015ft\u0131rma birimleri, enerji talebinin bu y\u0131l artmaya devam etmesini bekliyor. 2022\u2019de ise talebin daha da y\u00fckselmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. <\/span>
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Fiyatlar da y\u00fckselecek...<\/span>
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Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bir s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek seyredece\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir. Hele ki, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 baz\u0131nda...<\/span>
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Zira dolar baz\u0131nda y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da eklememiz gerekiyor. B\u00f6ylece, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 baz\u0131nda \u00e7ok daha keskin art\u0131\u015flar kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. TL olarak bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, d\u00fcnyada enerji fiyatlar\u0131 son bir y\u0131lda petrolde y\u00fczde 95, do\u011falgazda y\u00fczde 200 ve buhar k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 280 y\u00fckseldi. <\/span>
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Sekt\u00f6r kaynaklar\u0131na dayand\u0131r\u0131lan haberlere g\u00f6re, elektrik ve do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131nda artan maliyetlerden \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc ekim ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 15\u2019e varan oranda art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor. <\/span>
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Y\u0131l sonuna kadar art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n y\u00fczde 30 civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyen uzmanlar \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu olu\u015fturuyor. <\/span>
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Uzmanlara g\u00f6re, b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle \u00f6ncelikle elektrik fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselecek. Veriler, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 7 ay\u0131nda t\u00fcketti\u011fi elektri\u011fin neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 do\u011falgaz ve ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr kullanarak \u00fcretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n elektrik faturalar\u0131na yans\u0131mamas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclemez. <\/span>
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\u00d6te yandan, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de do\u011falgaz\u0131n y\u00fczde 93\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc ithal eden Bota\u015f\u2019\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde izledi\u011fi strateji ile m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca do\u011falgaz\u0131 ucuza verme \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131n da sonuna yakla\u015f\u0131yor olabiliriz. Nitekim kurulu\u015fun \u00f6nceki Do\u011fal Gaz Dairesi Ba\u015fkanlar\u0131ndan Arif Akt\u00fcrk, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u2018cep yakaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u2019 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Akt\u00fcrk\u2019e g\u00f6re, k\u0131\u015f\u0131n gelmesi ile spot al\u0131mlar artacak ve spot fiyatlar d\u00fcnyaya entegre oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ister istemez y\u00fcksek oranda do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131t\u0131lacak. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131 2022 ba\u015f\u0131na kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 30 zam g\u00f6recek. <\/span>
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\u00dcretimi etkileyecek... <\/span>
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T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son geli\u015fmelerden ciddi \u015fekilde etkilenece\u011fi a\u015fikar. Demir-\u00e7elikten \u00e7imentoya, g\u0131dadan ula\u015ft\u0131rmaya kadar...<\/span>
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Sekt\u00f6r temsilcileri, \u201cUcuz enerjinin hayat\u0131m\u0131zda olmayaca\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme girdi\u011fimizi g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz\u201d diyerek, bu ger\u00e7e\u011fi net bir \u015fekilde dile getiriyor. Sanayiciler, \u00f6zellikle do\u011falgaz\u0131n maliyette b\u00fcy\u00fck pay sahibi oldu\u011fu sekt\u00f6rlerde \u00f6zel bir fiyat uygulamas\u0131 talep ediyor. \u00c7imentocular, enerjideki fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n maliyetlerini y\u00fczde 100 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtip, \u201cKDV indirimi gibi ilave bir destek olmazsa art\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini\u201d kaydediyor. <\/span>
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\u00d6te yandan, T\u00fcrkiye y\u00fczde 80\u2019e varan oranda do\u011falgaz ve ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr ile \u0131s\u0131n\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, sanayici ve \u00fcreticilerin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ve vatanda\u015f\u0131n yak\u0131t faturalar\u0131n\u0131n da b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artmas\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/span>
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Tablo b\u00f6yle...<\/span>
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Y\u00fckselen ithalat faturas\u0131, cari a\u00e7\u0131k, artan d\u00f6viz kuru ve enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla birlikte ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda zor bir k\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlanmaktan ba\u015fka \u00e7are yok. <\/span>
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\u201cHaz\u0131rlanal\u0131m da ne yapal\u0131m\u201d derseniz, onu da m\u00fcsaadenizle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki Eko-Mercek\u2019lerde ele alal\u0131m. <\/span>
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D\u00dcNYANIN DA T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019N\u0130N DE ELEKTR\u0130K TALEB\u0130 B\u00dcY\u00dcYOR<\/strong><\/span>
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Elektrik talebi, son 10 y\u0131l\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine do\u011fru ilerliyor. Muhtemelen bu y\u0131l talebin y\u00fczde 4.5 veya farkl\u0131 bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcyle s\u00f6ylersek 1000 TWh\u2019nin \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. <\/span>
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Bu miktar, 2020\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn neredeyse be\u015f kat\u0131. Ve elektri\u011fin nihai enerji talebindeki pay\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin elektrik t\u00fcketiminin bu y\u0131l d\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n biraz \u00fczerinde y\u00fczde 5 d\u00fczeyinde artaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u015eu ana kadarki geli\u015fmeler de bu y\u00f6nde...<\/span>
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\u00d6ncelikle, bu geli\u015fmeyi b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri destekliyor. Evet, OECD 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel ekonomide b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 5.7\u2019ye indirdi. Ancak mevcut veriler h\u00e2l\u00e2 k\u00fcresel ekonominin 1950\u2019lerden bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme ya\u015fanacak y\u0131llardan birinde oldu\u011fumuzu destekliyor. <\/span>
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\u0130kinci olarak, OECD T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini y\u00fckseltti. Tahminini y\u00fczde 8.4 olarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti. Kald\u0131 ki, yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z hesaplamalar baz etkisiyle bu oran\u0131n y\u00fczde 10\u2019un \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kma ihtimali de var. <\/span>
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T\u00fcrkiye, \u00fcretmeye ve ihracata devam ediyor. \u00dcretirken ciddi bi\u00e7imde elektrik enerjisi kullan\u0131yoruz. Enerji maliyetleri \u00fczerinde d\u00fcnyadan kaynaklanan geli\u015fmeler, i\u00e7 piyasaya da yans\u0131yor. <\/span>
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Tabii bir de i\u015fin kur boyutu var. Biliyorsunuz Merkez Bankas\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta faiz indirdi. Do\u011fru yapt\u0131, yanl\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak, y\u00fckselen kurlar ister istemez enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 TL baz\u0131nda yukar\u0131ya itiyor. Ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 ne zaman T\u00dcFE\u2019nin alt\u0131nda faiz verse ABD Dolar\u0131 ve Euro\u2019nun art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar, 2010 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana politika faizinin negatif reel faize tekab\u00fcl etti\u011fi \u00fc\u00e7 d\u00f6nemin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnde de, dolar\u0131n TL kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda minimum y\u00fczde 25, maksimum y\u00fczde 38 de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span>
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Bu nedenle, son geli\u015fmelerin \u00fczerine konu\u015ftu\u011fum uzmanlar, elektrik fiyatlar\u0131nda 2022 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 50 art\u0131\u015f beklentisinin olu\u015fma ihtimalinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"enerjide-zor-bir-kisa-hazirlanin","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Enerjide zor bir k\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rlan\u0131n","meta_description":"HAKAN G\u00dcLDA\u011e","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1073,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}