{"status":true,"post":{"id":19905,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:41:21","created_at":"2019-02-10T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:41:21.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":19905,"is_featured":0,"title":"Ekonomide son geli\u015fmeler","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

D\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2019\u2019a h\u0131zl\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde yava\u015flama endi\u015feleri, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ise ekonomide ve i\u015flerde toparlanma \u00e7abas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Geli\u015fmeleri ve beklentileri de\u011ferlendirelim: <\/span><\/p>

1 - ABD-\u00c7in ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri \u00e7ok kritik <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

2018\u2019de ba\u015flayan ticarette korumac\u0131l\u0131k ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fini ABD-\u00c7in ticaret m\u00fczakereleri belirleyecek. Uzat\u0131lmaz ise g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde uzla\u015fma i\u00e7in son tarih 1 Mart. Ticaret m\u00fczakerelerinin sonucu 2019\u2019u \u015fekillendirecek. Anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde d\u00fcnya ekonomisine y\u00f6nelik korumac\u0131l\u0131k riski azalacak. Anla\u015fma sa\u011flanamaz ise ABD ve \u00c7in yeni koruma \u00f6nlemleri alacak, korumac\u0131l\u0131k dalgas\u0131 d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131na da yay\u0131lacak ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde yava\u015flama olacak.<\/span><\/p>

2 - Brexit \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

B\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya\u2019n\u0131n Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nden ayr\u0131l\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinde belirsizlik artarak s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131l\u0131k anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u0130ngiltere Parlamentosu kabul etti. \u015eubat i\u00e7inde \u0130ngiltere h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, AB\u2019den anla\u015fmada iyile\u015ftirmeler isteyecek. Ancak AB, ayr\u0131l\u0131k anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden m\u00fczakere etmeyece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede anla\u015fmas\u0131z ayr\u0131l\u0131k olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin resmi ayr\u0131l\u0131\u015f tarihi olan 29 Mart\u2019\u0131n uzat\u0131lmas\u0131ndan yeni Brexit referandumuna kadar t\u00fcm se\u00e7enekler halen masada.<\/span><\/p>

3 - K\u00fcresel mali piyasalar Fed\u2019i mat etti; s\u0131cak para geri d\u00f6n\u00fcyor<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed\u2019in 2019\u2019a ili\u015fkin para politikas\u0131ndaki normalle\u015fme plan\u0131, k\u00fcresel mali piyasalarda b\u00fcy\u00fck tepki ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131 ve ba\u015fta ABD borsalar\u0131 olmak \u00fczere b\u00fcy\u00fck kay\u0131plar ya\u015fanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/span><\/p>

Bu geli\u015fmeler sonras\u0131 k\u00fcresel ekonomik yava\u015flama riskini de g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne alan Fed, 2019\u2019a ili\u015fkin plan\u0131n\u0131 hafifletti ve \u00e7ok daha temkinli bir para politikas\u0131 uygulayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. K\u00fcresel mali piyasalar Fed\u2019i frenledi, s\u0131cak para dolan\u0131m\u0131 h\u0131zla artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131 <\/span>ve piyasalar toparland\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

4 \u2013 Merkez Bankas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

T.C. Merkez Bankas\u0131, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131 enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir iyile\u015fme sa\u011flanana kadar s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na devam edecek. Merkez Bankas\u0131 hem y\u00fczde 24 olan politika faizini koruyor hem de piyasaya b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 likiditeyi azalt\u0131yor. Se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesi Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n para politikas\u0131nda gev\u015feyece\u011fi beklentisi de b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ortadan kalkt\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n para politikas\u0131nda bundan sonraki ad\u0131mlar\u0131 enflasyondaki geli\u015fmeler belirleyecek. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak en erken bir faiz indirimi ilkbaharda m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olacak. <\/span><\/p>

5 - T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye s\u0131cak para ak\u0131m\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

K\u00fcresel mali piyasalarda s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye hareketlerinde \u00f6nemli bir canlanma ya\u015fan\u0131yor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n para politikalar\u0131nda \u2018temkinli olaca\u011f\u0131z\u2019 yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 s\u0131cak para ak\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tetikledi. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik olarak da kuvvetli bir s\u0131cak para giri\u015fi ba\u015flad\u0131. T.C. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da s\u0131cak para giri\u015fini h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de mali varl\u0131klar, \u00f6zellikle y\u00fcksek faiz getirisi ile s\u0131cak paraya cazip getiriler sa\u011fl\u0131yor. S\u0131cak para giri\u015fi ile T\u00fcrkiye d\u00f6viz ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

6 - S\u0131cak para T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019na de\u011fer kazand\u0131r\u0131yor <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

T.C. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi ve k\u00fcresel mali piyasalarda yeniden hareketlenen s\u0131cak paran\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye de ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonucu, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 de\u011ferlendi. Geli\u015fen \u00fclke varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ak\u0131mdan T\u00fcrkiye de y\u00fcksek faizleri ile yararlan\u0131yor. Hisse senedi piyasas\u0131na da giri\u015f ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011ferini y\u00fcksek d\u00f6viz ihtiyac\u0131, bor\u00e7lar ve riskler de\u011fil, s\u0131cak para giri\u015fi belirlemeye ba\u015flad\u0131. S\u0131cak para, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine destekliyor, ancak kal\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil <\/span>ve T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek de\u011ferinin belirlenmesini engelliyor.<\/span><\/p>

7 - \u0130ktisadi faaliyetlerde toparlanma ihtiyac\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Ekonomide uygulanan dengeleme politikalar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk ve ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde iktisadi faaliyetlerde ister istemez k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye yol a\u00e7acak. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak da sekt\u00f6rlerde konkordato ve iflaslar ya\u015fanmaya devam edecek. Konkordato ve iflaslar reel sekt\u00f6rdeki t\u00fcm de\u011fer zincirini olumsuz etkilemeyi de s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. Yerel se\u00e7ime kadar i\u015flerde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ve kamunun buna kar\u015f\u0131n <\/span>
destekleri s\u00fcrecek.<\/span><\/p>

Son s\u00f6z:<\/strong> Belirsizli\u011fin bu kadar belirgin oldu\u011fu bir y\u0131l ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00f6nce varl\u0131klar\u0131 koruyal\u0131m, belirsizliklerin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyelim.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"ekonomide-son-gelismeler","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Ekonomide son geli\u015fmeler","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":319,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":20004,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":19905,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Ekonomide son geli\u015fmeler","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

D\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2019\u2019a h\u0131zl\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde yava\u015flama endi\u015feleri, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ise ekonomide ve i\u015flerde toparlanma \u00e7abas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Geli\u015fmeleri ve beklentileri de\u011ferlendirelim: <\/span><\/p>

1 - ABD-\u00c7in ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri \u00e7ok kritik <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

2018\u2019de ba\u015flayan ticarette korumac\u0131l\u0131k ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fini ABD-\u00c7in ticaret m\u00fczakereleri belirleyecek. Uzat\u0131lmaz ise g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde uzla\u015fma i\u00e7in son tarih 1 Mart. Ticaret m\u00fczakerelerinin sonucu 2019\u2019u \u015fekillendirecek. Anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde d\u00fcnya ekonomisine y\u00f6nelik korumac\u0131l\u0131k riski azalacak. Anla\u015fma sa\u011flanamaz ise ABD ve \u00c7in yeni koruma \u00f6nlemleri alacak, korumac\u0131l\u0131k dalgas\u0131 d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131na da yay\u0131lacak ve d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde yava\u015flama olacak.<\/span><\/p>

2 - Brexit \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

B\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya\u2019n\u0131n Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nden ayr\u0131l\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinde belirsizlik artarak s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131l\u0131k anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u0130ngiltere Parlamentosu kabul etti. \u015eubat i\u00e7inde \u0130ngiltere h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, AB\u2019den anla\u015fmada iyile\u015ftirmeler isteyecek. Ancak AB, ayr\u0131l\u0131k anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden m\u00fczakere etmeyece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede anla\u015fmas\u0131z ayr\u0131l\u0131k olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin resmi ayr\u0131l\u0131\u015f tarihi olan 29 Mart\u2019\u0131n uzat\u0131lmas\u0131ndan yeni Brexit referandumuna kadar t\u00fcm se\u00e7enekler halen masada.<\/span><\/p>

3 - K\u00fcresel mali piyasalar Fed\u2019i mat etti; s\u0131cak para geri d\u00f6n\u00fcyor<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed\u2019in 2019\u2019a ili\u015fkin para politikas\u0131ndaki normalle\u015fme plan\u0131, k\u00fcresel mali piyasalarda b\u00fcy\u00fck tepki ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131 ve ba\u015fta ABD borsalar\u0131 olmak \u00fczere b\u00fcy\u00fck kay\u0131plar ya\u015fanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/span><\/p>

Bu geli\u015fmeler sonras\u0131 k\u00fcresel ekonomik yava\u015flama riskini de g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne alan Fed, 2019\u2019a ili\u015fkin plan\u0131n\u0131 hafifletti ve \u00e7ok daha temkinli bir para politikas\u0131 uygulayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. K\u00fcresel mali piyasalar Fed\u2019i frenledi, s\u0131cak para dolan\u0131m\u0131 h\u0131zla artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131 <\/span>ve piyasalar toparland\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

4 \u2013 Merkez Bankas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

T.C. Merkez Bankas\u0131, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131 enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir iyile\u015fme sa\u011flanana kadar s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na devam edecek. Merkez Bankas\u0131 hem y\u00fczde 24 olan politika faizini koruyor hem de piyasaya b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 likiditeyi azalt\u0131yor. Se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesi Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n para politikas\u0131nda gev\u015feyece\u011fi beklentisi de b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ortadan kalkt\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n para politikas\u0131nda bundan sonraki ad\u0131mlar\u0131 enflasyondaki geli\u015fmeler belirleyecek. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak en erken bir faiz indirimi ilkbaharda m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olacak. <\/span><\/p>

5 - T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye s\u0131cak para ak\u0131m\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

K\u00fcresel mali piyasalarda s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye hareketlerinde \u00f6nemli bir canlanma ya\u015fan\u0131yor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n para politikalar\u0131nda \u2018temkinli olaca\u011f\u0131z\u2019 yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 s\u0131cak para ak\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tetikledi. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik olarak da kuvvetli bir s\u0131cak para giri\u015fi ba\u015flad\u0131. T.C. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da s\u0131cak para giri\u015fini h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de mali varl\u0131klar, \u00f6zellikle y\u00fcksek faiz getirisi ile s\u0131cak paraya cazip getiriler sa\u011fl\u0131yor. S\u0131cak para giri\u015fi ile T\u00fcrkiye d\u00f6viz ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

6 - S\u0131cak para T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019na de\u011fer kazand\u0131r\u0131yor <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

T.C. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi ve k\u00fcresel mali piyasalarda yeniden hareketlenen s\u0131cak paran\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye de ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonucu, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 de\u011ferlendi. Geli\u015fen \u00fclke varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ak\u0131mdan T\u00fcrkiye de y\u00fcksek faizleri ile yararlan\u0131yor. Hisse senedi piyasas\u0131na da giri\u015f ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011ferini y\u00fcksek d\u00f6viz ihtiyac\u0131, bor\u00e7lar ve riskler de\u011fil, s\u0131cak para giri\u015fi belirlemeye ba\u015flad\u0131. S\u0131cak para, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine destekliyor, ancak kal\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil <\/span>ve T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek de\u011ferinin belirlenmesini engelliyor.<\/span><\/p>

7 - \u0130ktisadi faaliyetlerde toparlanma ihtiyac\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Ekonomide uygulanan dengeleme politikalar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk ve ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde iktisadi faaliyetlerde ister istemez k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye yol a\u00e7acak. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak da sekt\u00f6rlerde konkordato ve iflaslar ya\u015fanmaya devam edecek. Konkordato ve iflaslar reel sekt\u00f6rdeki t\u00fcm de\u011fer zincirini olumsuz etkilemeyi de s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. Yerel se\u00e7ime kadar i\u015flerde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ve kamunun buna kar\u015f\u0131n <\/span>
destekleri s\u00fcrecek.<\/span><\/p>

Son s\u00f6z:<\/strong> Belirsizli\u011fin bu kadar belirgin oldu\u011fu bir y\u0131l ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00f6nce varl\u0131klar\u0131 koruyal\u0131m, belirsizliklerin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyelim.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"ekonomide-son-gelismeler","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Ekonomide son geli\u015fmeler","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":319,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}