{"status":true,"post":{"id":20003,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:42:15","created_at":"2019-03-10T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:42:15.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":20003,"is_featured":0,"title":"Ekonomide \u2018dengelenme\u2019 h\u0131zlan\u0131yor","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin, Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 Albayrak\u2019\u0131n koordinasyonunda, arka arkaya ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tedbirler, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde \u2018dengelenme s\u00fcreci\u2019ni ivmelendirdi. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz a\u011fustostan eyl\u00fcle, bir ayda y\u00fczde 17.9\u2019dan y\u00fczde 24.52\u2019ye y\u00fckselen y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00dcFE art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 (man\u015fet enflasyon), ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz \u015fubatta y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin alt\u0131na geriledi. Ekonomistlerin \u015fubat enflasyon verileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdikleri en \u00f6nemli husus, g\u0131da ve enerji gibi mevsimsel ve konjonkt\u00fcrel geli\u015fmelerden etkilenen \u00fcr\u00fcnler hari\u00e7 hesaplanan \u2018\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon\u2019 oranlar\u0131n\u0131n da gerilemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor olmas\u0131. Ekonomistlerin \u015fubat enflasyon beklentilerinin ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 0.45 iken, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmenin 0.16\u2019da kalmas\u0131 \u2018enflasyonda yap\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k etkisi\u2019nin k\u0131r\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde umutlar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bunun da \u00f6tesinde, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00fcretim maliyetlerinin g\u00f6stergesi olan \u00dcFE\u2019de ise y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyonun ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz eyl\u00fclde y\u00fczde 46.15 ile en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz \u015fubat itibariyle y\u00fczde 29.59\u2019a gerileyerek, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz a\u011fustos verisinin de alt\u0131na gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli. \u00dcFE\u2019nin \u00f6ncelikle 2018 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 10\u2019lar d\u00fczeyine kadar gerilemesi, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn maliyetlerindeki negatif etkinin azalmas\u0131 ve \u2018dengelenme\u2019nin h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 ad\u0131na kritik \u00f6nemde bir i\u015faret olu\u015fturacak. Reel sekt\u00f6r a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki istikrar\u0131n devam\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, ithal hammadde maliyetlerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 ve enerji maliyetlerini azaltmak ad\u0131na at\u0131labilecek ad\u0131mlar kritik \u00f6nemde olacak.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ekonomistlerin 2019 sonu enflasyon beklentisinin ortalamas\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 15.78\u2019e geriledi. Bu da hedeflerin tutturulaca\u011f\u0131na dair beklentinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu noktada, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve ticarette yava\u015flama e\u011filiminin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde, ihracat hacminin \u015fubatta da yeni bir rekora imza atmas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan sevindirici. Ticaret Bakan\u0131 Pekcan\u2019\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi, k\u00fcresel entegrasyonun zay\u0131flamas\u0131 manas\u0131na gelen \u2018slowbalization\u2019 etkisine ra\u011fmen, T\u00fcrk ihra\u00e7 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin 223 \u00fclkede bayra\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 dalgaland\u0131rmas\u0131; 113 \u00fclkeye ihracat\u0131n artmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi, 88 \u00fclkede art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 10\u2019un \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131, ihracat\u0131n \u2018dengelenme\u2019 d\u00f6nemine ne kadar \u00f6nemli katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit ediyor. \u0130hracat\u0131m\u0131zdaki pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 52 olan AB pazar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeleri ise yak\u0131ndan takip etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>\u2018T\u0130CARET SAVA\u015eI\u2019 BA\u015eARISIZ OLDU<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n bu derece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir iradeyle y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u2018ticaret sava\u015f\u0131\u2019na ra\u011fmen, ABD ekonomisi 2018\u2019i, y\u00fczde 12.5\u2019lik art\u0131\u015fla, son 10 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan 621 milyar dolarla kapatt\u0131. Nedeni basit; d\u00fcnya ekonomisi 20 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde tahminlerin \u00f6tesinde bir \u2018uluslararas\u0131la\u015fma\u2019yla tamamlad\u0131. Bug\u00fcn, her d\u00fcnya vatanda\u015f\u0131, e-ticaret ve dijital, mobil \u00f6deme sistemleriyle, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n her yerinden istedi\u011fi \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc kap\u0131s\u0131na getirtebiliyor. \u2018Ticaret sava\u015f\u0131\u2019, 1970\u2019lerin veya 80\u2019lerin \u2018so\u011fuk sava\u015f\u2019 periyodunda, kendi \u00fcreticilerini korumak ad\u0131na y\u00fcr\u00fctebilecekleri bir m\u00fccadele y\u00f6ntemi olabilir. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda ise t\u00fcketiciler art\u0131k kendi h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerinden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir iradeye sahip.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">ABD istedi\u011fi kadar 250 milyar dolarl\u0131k \u00c7in \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn vergisini art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olsun, 2018\u2019de \u00c7in lehine 419.2 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k vermeyi engelleyemedi. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ekonomi biliminin temel \u00f6\u011fretisi \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 temel ger\u00e7ek, \u00fclkeleri ve \u015firketleri birbirinden ay\u0131ran temel ba\u015far\u0131 kriteri \u2018fiyat rekabeti\u2019nden \u00e7ok, \u2018maliyet rekabeti\u2019. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte \u2018ticaret diplomasisi\u2019nin saha neferleri olan ihracat\u00e7\u0131 firmalar\u0131m\u0131z da bu ger\u00e7e\u011fin fark\u0131ndalar. ABD, \u00c7in mallar\u0131na ek vergi koysa da \u00c7inli \u015firketler \u2018maliyet rekabeti\u2019ni s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilecek f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 olu\u015fturduk\u00e7a ve Amerikan halk\u0131 da bu \u00fcr\u00fcnleri talep ettik\u00e7e tablo de\u011fi\u015fmeyecek. Amerikan y\u00f6netimi, pek \u00e7ok sekt\u00f6r\u00fc daha rekabet\u00e7i k\u0131lacak yeni \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler \u00fcretmedi\u011fi m\u00fcddet\u00e7e, ABD 3.2 trilyon dolarla en y\u00fcksek ithalat\u00e7\u0131 \u00fclke olma unvan\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">ABD y\u00f6netiminin esasen bu ger\u00e7eklerin ciddi manada fark\u0131nda oldu\u011funu da s\u00f6yleyebilirim. Bu nedenle, ABD\u2019nin 200 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde \u00c7in mal\u0131na daha ek vergi koyma hamlesini m\u00fczakereler devam ediyor bahanesiyle ertelemesi, ABD\u2019nin esas derdinin \u00c7in\u2019in para birimi olan \u2018renbinmi\u2019, yani yuan\u0131n \u2018serbest dalgalanma\u2019ya b\u0131rakt\u0131rmak olabilece\u011fi ihtimaline i\u015faret ediyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc yuan\u0131n de\u011ferini \u2018serbest piyasa\u2019 ko\u015fullar\u0131nda b\u0131rak\u0131r ve yuan de\u011fer kazan\u0131rsa, \u00c7in\u2019in rekabet avantaj\u0131 da zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f olacak. \u2018Ticaret sava\u015f\u0131\u2019 gibi demode bir silah\u0131 kullan\u0131rken, ABD\u2019nin esas Meksika, Kanada, AB ve \u00c7in\u2019den neyi koparman\u0131n pe\u015finde oldu\u011funu iyi okumam\u0131z gerekiyor.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"ekonomide-dengelenme-hizlaniyor","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Ekonomide \u2018dengelenme\u2019 h\u0131zlan\u0131yor","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":109,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":20102,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":20003,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Ekonomide \u2018dengelenme\u2019 h\u0131zlan\u0131yor","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin, Hazine ve Maliye Bakan\u0131 Albayrak\u2019\u0131n koordinasyonunda, arka arkaya ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tedbirler, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde \u2018dengelenme s\u00fcreci\u2019ni ivmelendirdi. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz a\u011fustostan eyl\u00fcle, bir ayda y\u00fczde 17.9\u2019dan y\u00fczde 24.52\u2019ye y\u00fckselen y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00dcFE art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 (man\u015fet enflasyon), ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz \u015fubatta y\u00fczde 20\u2019nin alt\u0131na geriledi. Ekonomistlerin \u015fubat enflasyon verileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdikleri en \u00f6nemli husus, g\u0131da ve enerji gibi mevsimsel ve konjonkt\u00fcrel geli\u015fmelerden etkilenen \u00fcr\u00fcnler hari\u00e7 hesaplanan \u2018\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon\u2019 oranlar\u0131n\u0131n da gerilemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor olmas\u0131. Ekonomistlerin \u015fubat enflasyon beklentilerinin ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 0.45 iken, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmenin 0.16\u2019da kalmas\u0131 \u2018enflasyonda yap\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k etkisi\u2019nin k\u0131r\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde umutlar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bunun da \u00f6tesinde, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00fcretim maliyetlerinin g\u00f6stergesi olan \u00dcFE\u2019de ise y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyonun ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz eyl\u00fclde y\u00fczde 46.15 ile en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz \u015fubat itibariyle y\u00fczde 29.59\u2019a gerileyerek, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz a\u011fustos verisinin de alt\u0131na gerilemi\u015f olmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli. \u00dcFE\u2019nin \u00f6ncelikle 2018 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 10\u2019lar d\u00fczeyine kadar gerilemesi, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn maliyetlerindeki negatif etkinin azalmas\u0131 ve \u2018dengelenme\u2019nin h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 ad\u0131na kritik \u00f6nemde bir i\u015faret olu\u015fturacak. Reel sekt\u00f6r a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki istikrar\u0131n devam\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, ithal hammadde maliyetlerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 ve enerji maliyetlerini azaltmak ad\u0131na at\u0131labilecek ad\u0131mlar kritik \u00f6nemde olacak.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ekonomistlerin 2019 sonu enflasyon beklentisinin ortalamas\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 15.78\u2019e geriledi. Bu da hedeflerin tutturulaca\u011f\u0131na dair beklentinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu noktada, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve ticarette yava\u015flama e\u011filiminin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde, ihracat hacminin \u015fubatta da yeni bir rekora imza atmas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan sevindirici. Ticaret Bakan\u0131 Pekcan\u2019\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi, k\u00fcresel entegrasyonun zay\u0131flamas\u0131 manas\u0131na gelen \u2018slowbalization\u2019 etkisine ra\u011fmen, T\u00fcrk ihra\u00e7 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin 223 \u00fclkede bayra\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 dalgaland\u0131rmas\u0131; 113 \u00fclkeye ihracat\u0131n artmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi, 88 \u00fclkede art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 10\u2019un \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131, ihracat\u0131n \u2018dengelenme\u2019 d\u00f6nemine ne kadar \u00f6nemli katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit ediyor. \u0130hracat\u0131m\u0131zdaki pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 52 olan AB pazar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeleri ise yak\u0131ndan takip etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>\u2018T\u0130CARET SAVA\u015eI\u2019 BA\u015eARISIZ OLDU<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n bu derece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir iradeyle y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u2018ticaret sava\u015f\u0131\u2019na ra\u011fmen, ABD ekonomisi 2018\u2019i, y\u00fczde 12.5\u2019lik art\u0131\u015fla, son 10 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan 621 milyar dolarla kapatt\u0131. Nedeni basit; d\u00fcnya ekonomisi 20 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde tahminlerin \u00f6tesinde bir \u2018uluslararas\u0131la\u015fma\u2019yla tamamlad\u0131. Bug\u00fcn, her d\u00fcnya vatanda\u015f\u0131, e-ticaret ve dijital, mobil \u00f6deme sistemleriyle, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n her yerinden istedi\u011fi \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc kap\u0131s\u0131na getirtebiliyor. \u2018Ticaret sava\u015f\u0131\u2019, 1970\u2019lerin veya 80\u2019lerin \u2018so\u011fuk sava\u015f\u2019 periyodunda, kendi \u00fcreticilerini korumak ad\u0131na y\u00fcr\u00fctebilecekleri bir m\u00fccadele y\u00f6ntemi olabilir. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda ise t\u00fcketiciler art\u0131k kendi h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerinden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir iradeye sahip.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">ABD istedi\u011fi kadar 250 milyar dolarl\u0131k \u00c7in \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn vergisini art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olsun, 2018\u2019de \u00c7in lehine 419.2 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k vermeyi engelleyemedi. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ekonomi biliminin temel \u00f6\u011fretisi \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 temel ger\u00e7ek, \u00fclkeleri ve \u015firketleri birbirinden ay\u0131ran temel ba\u015far\u0131 kriteri \u2018fiyat rekabeti\u2019nden \u00e7ok, \u2018maliyet rekabeti\u2019. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte \u2018ticaret diplomasisi\u2019nin saha neferleri olan ihracat\u00e7\u0131 firmalar\u0131m\u0131z da bu ger\u00e7e\u011fin fark\u0131ndalar. ABD, \u00c7in mallar\u0131na ek vergi koysa da \u00c7inli \u015firketler \u2018maliyet rekabeti\u2019ni s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilecek f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 olu\u015fturduk\u00e7a ve Amerikan halk\u0131 da bu \u00fcr\u00fcnleri talep ettik\u00e7e tablo de\u011fi\u015fmeyecek. Amerikan y\u00f6netimi, pek \u00e7ok sekt\u00f6r\u00fc daha rekabet\u00e7i k\u0131lacak yeni \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler \u00fcretmedi\u011fi m\u00fcddet\u00e7e, ABD 3.2 trilyon dolarla en y\u00fcksek ithalat\u00e7\u0131 \u00fclke olma unvan\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">ABD y\u00f6netiminin esasen bu ger\u00e7eklerin ciddi manada fark\u0131nda oldu\u011funu da s\u00f6yleyebilirim. Bu nedenle, ABD\u2019nin 200 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde \u00c7in mal\u0131na daha ek vergi koyma hamlesini m\u00fczakereler devam ediyor bahanesiyle ertelemesi, ABD\u2019nin esas derdinin \u00c7in\u2019in para birimi olan \u2018renbinmi\u2019, yani yuan\u0131n \u2018serbest dalgalanma\u2019ya b\u0131rakt\u0131rmak olabilece\u011fi ihtimaline i\u015faret ediyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc yuan\u0131n de\u011ferini \u2018serbest piyasa\u2019 ko\u015fullar\u0131nda b\u0131rak\u0131r ve yuan de\u011fer kazan\u0131rsa, \u00c7in\u2019in rekabet avantaj\u0131 da zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f olacak. \u2018Ticaret sava\u015f\u0131\u2019 gibi demode bir silah\u0131 kullan\u0131rken, ABD\u2019nin esas Meksika, Kanada, AB ve \u00c7in\u2019den neyi koparman\u0131n pe\u015finde oldu\u011funu iyi okumam\u0131z gerekiyor.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"ekonomide-dengelenme-hizlaniyor","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Ekonomide \u2018dengelenme\u2019 h\u0131zlan\u0131yor","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":109,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}