{"status":true,"post":{"id":18246,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:11:20","created_at":"2018-04-08T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:11:20.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":18246,"is_featured":0,"title":"D\u00fcnyada iyimser beklentiler de\u011fi\u015fiyor mu?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde ve ticaretinde 2017\u2019de \u00f6nemli bir iyile\u015fme ya\u015fan\u0131rken, 2018\u2019e de ayn\u0131 iyimserlik ile ba\u015fland\u0131. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde b\u00fcy\u00fcme, sanayi \u00fcretimi ve ticaret taraf\u0131nda iyimser beklentiler b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131. Ancak \u00f6zellikle mart ay\u0131n\u0131n sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler d\u00fcnyadaki iyimser beklentileri etkilemeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede geli\u015fmeleri ve olas\u0131 etkilerini de\u011ferlendirelim:<\/span><\/p>

1 - KORUMACILIK HIZLA YAYGINLA\u015eIYOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

ABD\u2019nin demir \u00e7elik ve al\u00fcminyum ithalat\u0131na ek vergiler getirmesinin ard\u0131ndan \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 ticarette ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda yeni koruyucu \u00f6nlemler almas\u0131, k\u00fcresel alanda ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n teti\u011fini \u00e7ekti. \u00c7in de ABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlemler uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00c7in ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019yi D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019ne \u015fik\u00e2yet etmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. <\/span>
Avrupa Birli\u011fi ise \u00e7elik ve al\u00fcminyum vergilerinde istisna kapsam\u0131na girmesi ile \u015fimdilik <\/span>kar\u015f\u0131 bir \u00f6nlem almad\u0131. Ba\u015flayan kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 korumac\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6nlemlerinin yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 halinde d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde ya\u015fanan iyile\u015fme ile d\u00fcnya ticaretindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin olumsuz etkilenme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

2 - S\u0130YAS\u0130 GEL\u0130\u015eMELER ETK\u0130L\u0130 <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel alanda ya\u015fanan siyasi geli\u015fmeler, d\u00fcnya dengeleri \u00fczerinde artan oranda etkili olmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. ABD\u2019de D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019na ve Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019na \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fl\u00fc ki\u015filerin gelmesi, gerginli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131. ABD, \u0130ran ile yap\u0131lan n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmay\u0131 tan\u0131mamaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump, Suriye\u2019den \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131 ald\u0131. Suriye\u2019de i\u00e7 sava\u015f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve BM etkili olam\u0131yor. Rusya\u2019da Putin yeniden ve daha y\u00fcksek oyla Ba\u015fkan se\u00e7ildi. \u00c7in\u2019de devlet ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi \u00f6m\u00fcr boyu olarak de\u011fi\u015ftirildi. K\u00fcresel siyasette i\u015fbirliklerinin yerini giderek kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131klar almaya ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/span><\/p>

3 - K\u00dcRESEL MAL\u0130 P\u0130YASALAR \u015eA\u015eKIN <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel mali piyasalar, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin ve \u00f6zellikle ABD\u2019nin para politikas\u0131ndaki normalle\u015fme s\u00fcrecine uyum sa\u011flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. <\/span>
Artan LIBOR faizleri ve dolar likiditesindeki daralma, fiyatlamalar\u0131 etkiliyor. Buna ilave olarak ABD y\u00f6netiminin kararlar\u0131 ve ticarette ba\u015flayan korumac\u0131l\u0131k da giderek k\u00fcresel mali piyasalar\u0131 etkiliyor. Facebook skandal\u0131 ve Amazon firmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik vergi ele\u015ftirileri, teknoloji hisse senetlerinde kay\u0131plara yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Ticarette korumac\u0131l\u0131ktan etkilenecek firmalar\u0131n hisse senetleri de de\u011fer kaybediyor. K\u00fcresel mali piyasalarda g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme giriliyor. <\/span><\/p>

4 - ALTIN Y\u0130NE G\u00dcVENL\u0130 L\u0130MAN <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel siyasetteki gerginlikler <\/span>ve ticaretteki korumac\u0131l\u0131k ile birlikte mali piyasalarda g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131 artt\u0131. Alt\u0131n yine ilk g\u00fcvenli liman tercihi olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ancak alt\u0131n onsu 1.350 dolar seviyesini a\u015fam\u0131yor. Alt\u0131n, getiriden \u00e7ok g\u00fcven sa\u011flamaya devam edecek. Euro-dolar paritesindeki s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k ve y\u00f6n aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 da s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Dolar korumac\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6nlemleri ile zay\u0131flarken Euro da enflasyonun gerilemesi ile zay\u0131f kal\u0131yor. Emtia fiyatlar\u0131 ise korumac\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6nlemlerinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 endi\u015feler ile kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir seyir izlemeye ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/span><\/p>

5 - D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130NE ETK\u0130LER \u015e\u0130MD\u0130L\u0130K SINIRLI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Bu geli\u015fmelerin, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi \u00fczerindeki etkileri \u015fimdilik olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. D\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmede ya\u015fanan iyile\u015fmeyi tersine \u00e7evirecek bir etki potansiyeli g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor. Ancak ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131na AB, Japonya ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da kat\u0131lmas\u0131 ve kapsam\u0131n geni\u015flemesi halinde \u00f6nce d\u00fcnya mal ticareti, sonras\u0131nda ise d\u00fcnya ekonomisi olumsuz etkilenecek. Merkez bankalar\u0131 da bu olumsuzluklara kay\u0131ts\u0131z kalamayacak. <\/span><\/p>

6 - T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019N\u0130N \u0130HRACATI ETK\u0130LEN\u0130R M\u0130? <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ortamda bu geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fan\u0131rken, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2017\u2019yi y\u00fczde 7.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapatt\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00f6nemli itici g\u00fcc\u00fc ihracat ve ihracat\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi sanayideki \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu. \u0130hracat ve sanayi \u00fcretimi, 2018\u2019e de hissedilir bir art\u0131\u015f ile ba\u015flad\u0131. Muhtemelen 2018\u2019deki 170 milyar dolar ihracat hedefi a\u015f\u0131lacak. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme de buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00fcksek ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilecek. Ancak k\u00fcresel ekonomideki korumac\u0131l\u0131k ve k\u00fcresel siyasetteki kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131klar kademeli olarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat\u0131n\u0131 da olumsuz etkileyebilecek.<\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> \u0130hracatta 170 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fmam\u0131z i\u015ften bile de\u011filken, k\u00fcresel korumac\u0131l\u0131k umar\u0131z buna engel olmaz.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunyada-iyimser-beklentiler-degisiyor-mu","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnyada iyimser beklentiler de\u011fi\u015fiyor mu?","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":117,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":18345,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":18246,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"D\u00fcnyada iyimser beklentiler de\u011fi\u015fiyor mu?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde ve ticaretinde 2017\u2019de \u00f6nemli bir iyile\u015fme ya\u015fan\u0131rken, 2018\u2019e de ayn\u0131 iyimserlik ile ba\u015fland\u0131. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6neminde b\u00fcy\u00fcme, sanayi \u00fcretimi ve ticaret taraf\u0131nda iyimser beklentiler b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131. Ancak \u00f6zellikle mart ay\u0131n\u0131n sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler d\u00fcnyadaki iyimser beklentileri etkilemeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede geli\u015fmeleri ve olas\u0131 etkilerini de\u011ferlendirelim:<\/span><\/p>

1 - KORUMACILIK HIZLA YAYGINLA\u015eIYOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

ABD\u2019nin demir \u00e7elik ve al\u00fcminyum ithalat\u0131na ek vergiler getirmesinin ard\u0131ndan \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 ticarette ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda yeni koruyucu \u00f6nlemler almas\u0131, k\u00fcresel alanda ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n teti\u011fini \u00e7ekti. \u00c7in de ABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlemler uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00c7in ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019yi D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019ne \u015fik\u00e2yet etmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. <\/span>
Avrupa Birli\u011fi ise \u00e7elik ve al\u00fcminyum vergilerinde istisna kapsam\u0131na girmesi ile \u015fimdilik <\/span>kar\u015f\u0131 bir \u00f6nlem almad\u0131. Ba\u015flayan kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 korumac\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6nlemlerinin yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 halinde d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde ya\u015fanan iyile\u015fme ile d\u00fcnya ticaretindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin olumsuz etkilenme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

2 - S\u0130YAS\u0130 GEL\u0130\u015eMELER ETK\u0130L\u0130 <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel alanda ya\u015fanan siyasi geli\u015fmeler, d\u00fcnya dengeleri \u00fczerinde artan oranda etkili olmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. ABD\u2019de D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019na ve Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019na \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fl\u00fc ki\u015filerin gelmesi, gerginli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131. ABD, \u0130ran ile yap\u0131lan n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmay\u0131 tan\u0131mamaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump, Suriye\u2019den \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131 ald\u0131. Suriye\u2019de i\u00e7 sava\u015f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve BM etkili olam\u0131yor. Rusya\u2019da Putin yeniden ve daha y\u00fcksek oyla Ba\u015fkan se\u00e7ildi. \u00c7in\u2019de devlet ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi \u00f6m\u00fcr boyu olarak de\u011fi\u015ftirildi. K\u00fcresel siyasette i\u015fbirliklerinin yerini giderek kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131klar almaya ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/span><\/p>

3 - K\u00dcRESEL MAL\u0130 P\u0130YASALAR \u015eA\u015eKIN <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel mali piyasalar, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin ve \u00f6zellikle ABD\u2019nin para politikas\u0131ndaki normalle\u015fme s\u00fcrecine uyum sa\u011flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. <\/span>
Artan LIBOR faizleri ve dolar likiditesindeki daralma, fiyatlamalar\u0131 etkiliyor. Buna ilave olarak ABD y\u00f6netiminin kararlar\u0131 ve ticarette ba\u015flayan korumac\u0131l\u0131k da giderek k\u00fcresel mali piyasalar\u0131 etkiliyor. Facebook skandal\u0131 ve Amazon firmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik vergi ele\u015ftirileri, teknoloji hisse senetlerinde kay\u0131plara yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Ticarette korumac\u0131l\u0131ktan etkilenecek firmalar\u0131n hisse senetleri de de\u011fer kaybediyor. K\u00fcresel mali piyasalarda g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme giriliyor. <\/span><\/p>

4 - ALTIN Y\u0130NE G\u00dcVENL\u0130 L\u0130MAN <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel siyasetteki gerginlikler <\/span>ve ticaretteki korumac\u0131l\u0131k ile birlikte mali piyasalarda g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131 artt\u0131. Alt\u0131n yine ilk g\u00fcvenli liman tercihi olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ancak alt\u0131n onsu 1.350 dolar seviyesini a\u015fam\u0131yor. Alt\u0131n, getiriden \u00e7ok g\u00fcven sa\u011flamaya devam edecek. Euro-dolar paritesindeki s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k ve y\u00f6n aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 da s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Dolar korumac\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6nlemleri ile zay\u0131flarken Euro da enflasyonun gerilemesi ile zay\u0131f kal\u0131yor. Emtia fiyatlar\u0131 ise korumac\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6nlemlerinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 endi\u015feler ile kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir seyir izlemeye ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/span><\/p>

5 - D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130NE ETK\u0130LER \u015e\u0130MD\u0130L\u0130K SINIRLI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Bu geli\u015fmelerin, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi \u00fczerindeki etkileri \u015fimdilik olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. D\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmede ya\u015fanan iyile\u015fmeyi tersine \u00e7evirecek bir etki potansiyeli g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor. Ancak ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131na AB, Japonya ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da kat\u0131lmas\u0131 ve kapsam\u0131n geni\u015flemesi halinde \u00f6nce d\u00fcnya mal ticareti, sonras\u0131nda ise d\u00fcnya ekonomisi olumsuz etkilenecek. Merkez bankalar\u0131 da bu olumsuzluklara kay\u0131ts\u0131z kalamayacak. <\/span><\/p>

6 - T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019N\u0130N \u0130HRACATI ETK\u0130LEN\u0130R M\u0130? <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ortamda bu geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fan\u0131rken, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2017\u2019yi y\u00fczde 7.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapatt\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00f6nemli itici g\u00fcc\u00fc ihracat ve ihracat\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi sanayideki \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu. \u0130hracat ve sanayi \u00fcretimi, 2018\u2019e de hissedilir bir art\u0131\u015f ile ba\u015flad\u0131. Muhtemelen 2018\u2019deki 170 milyar dolar ihracat hedefi a\u015f\u0131lacak. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme de buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00fcksek ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilecek. Ancak k\u00fcresel ekonomideki korumac\u0131l\u0131k ve k\u00fcresel siyasetteki kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131klar kademeli olarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracat\u0131n\u0131 da olumsuz etkileyebilecek.<\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> \u0130hracatta 170 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fmam\u0131z i\u015ften bile de\u011filken, k\u00fcresel korumac\u0131l\u0131k umar\u0131z buna engel olmaz.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunyada-iyimser-beklentiler-degisiyor-mu","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnyada iyimser beklentiler de\u011fi\u015fiyor mu?","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":117,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}